The purpose of this study was to investigate the possible events in the external environment between 1987 and 1997 that may affect the future of North Texas State University. Two groups of experts participated in the study, a group of individuals from outside North Texas State University and a group of experts from the university.

Thesis (MScEng)--Stellenbosch University, 2012. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In the last century the earth has experienced an increase in the global mean temperature, with the main contributing factor being the increase in greenhouse gasses. Evidence indicates that the burning of fossil fuels, critical in the supply of energy, contributed towards three quarters of the carbon dioxide (CO2) increase. In 2008 South Africa reached electricity capacity constraints. A subsequent economic downturn experienced in the country, brought about by the worldwide economic recession, has relieved some of the strain on the electricity supply system. However, consumption levels are returning to those experienced during 2008 and no new base load power stations have been added. Short-term capacity constraints can be managed by shifting the peak demand, but the electricity shortage can only be avoided by adding additional capacity or reducing the overall electricity consumption. Supply-side solutions are both overdue and too expensive. The only solutions that can provide lasting results are demand-side solutions. During the past few years the Energy Efficiency and Demand-side Management (EEDSM) programme implemented by South Africa’s electricity supply utility, Eskom, has gained prominence. This programme relies heavily on calculating the savings incurred through any demand-side intervention. Energy audits enable the calculation of various consumption scenarios and can provide valuable insight into load operation and user behaviour. Energy audits involve a two-part procedure consisting of load surveying and an analysis. This thesis describes the development of both these procedures, combined into a single application. The application has been tested and provides an accurate and effective tool for simulating consumption and quantifying savings for various load adjustments. The results gained from the auditing application surpassed the expectations and provides the user with a sufficient base-line consumption estimate. The results do not reflect day-to-day variations, but the simulations are sufficient to quantify savings and determine whether demand-side interventions are financially viable. The application also presents a benchmark for the type of applications required to successfully implement an EEDSM programme. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: In die afgelope eeu het die aarde se gemiddelde temperatuur toegeneem, met die toename in kweekhuisgasse as die grootste bydraende faktor. Dit wil ook voorkom asof die verbranding van fossielbrandstowwe, wat noodsaaklik is vir die verskaffing van energie, verantwoordelik is vir driekwart van die toename in koolstofdioksied (CO2). Gedurende 2008 het Suid-Afrika elektrisiteitsbeperkings bereik. Die daaropvolgende ekonomiese afswaai wat in die land ervaar is weensdie wêreldwye ekonomiese resessie, het van die druk op die elekriese netwerk verlig. Verbruikersvlakke is egter besig om terug te keer na waar dit in 2008 was, maar geen nuwe basislas-kragstasies is gebou nie. Op die kort termyn kan die kapasiteitsbeperkings bestuur word deur die aanvraag te verskuif, maar die elektrisiteitstekort kan op die lang duur slegs vermy word deur bykomende kapasiteit by te voeg of die totale aanvraag te verminder. Toevoerkant-oplossings is beide agterstallig en te duur. Die enigste oplossings wat blywende resultate kan lewer, is dus aan die verbruikerkant. In die afgelope paar jaar het die effektiewe bestuur van energieverbruik baie aansien geniet. Die nasionale energievoorsiener, Eskom, het ook 'n program geloods om te help met die implimentering van energiebesparingmaatreëls. Die implementering van energie-oudits om met die kwantifisering van besparings te help, is van integrale belang vir die sukses van die program. Energie-oudits stel die eindverbruiker in staat om verskeie verbruiksmoontlikhede te beproef en sodoende waardevolle inligitng te verkry rakende die verbruikspatrone van die fasiliteit. Energie-oudits behels 'n tweeledige proses, bestaande uit 'n lasopname en 'n verbruiksanalise. Hierdie proefskrif beskryf die ontwikkeling van 'n stelsel wat beide die prosesse kombineer in 'n enkele applikasie. Die applikasie is getoets en bied 'n akkurate en doeltreffende instrument om verbruik te simuleer en besparings te kwantifiseer vir verskeie verbruiksmoontlikhede. v Die resultate van die oudit het die aanvanklike verwagtinge oortref en voorsien verbruikers van 'n goeie skatting van die basisverbruik van 'n fasiliteit. Die resultate weerspieël nie dagtot- dag variasies nie, maar die simulasies is voldoende om besparings te kwantifiseer en help om die finansiële lewensvatbaarheid van verbruikerskant-intervensies te bepaal. Die program bied ook 'n verwysingspunt vir applikasies wat besparingstudies wil implementeer.