The main theme of the diploma thesis is the senior's demand after the tourist services. The diploma thesis defines the main characteristics of the senior segment, its individual attributes and travel behaviour. It also presents the actual offer in tourism for this segment and its possible progress. The diploma thesis is divided into six chapters.

A methodology for modeling general aviation transportation systems from a system of systems perspective is presented. The completed framework aids the conceptual design process by providing capability-based metrics to the design engineer, as opposed to the traditional performance and cost, system-level metrics. The methodology is applied to two example problems representing promising future general aviation aircraft: the general aviation piston (GAP) and jet (GAJ). Results are presented in an array of formats, and the decision-making strategies that are now apparent in light of the capability-based metrics are described. The findings suggest that the system of systems framework might act as an analytical surrogate to the conventional problem definition process, providing indications of market preferences when that information is not immediately available through the conventional means. Implementation of this methodology can afford engineers a more autonomous perspective in the concept exploration process, providing dynamic feedback about a design's potential success in specific market segments. The method also has potential to strengthen the connection between design and business departments, as well as between manufacturers, service providers, and infrastructure planners - bringing information about how the respective systems interact, and what might be done to improve synergism of systems.

The thesis deals with only one of many problems of the founding plan dealing with online lending tools. It the thesis I'm interested in how the tools store and prepare to dispatch, how to distribute it and how to find the optimal way of distribution. The optimal way has been found as the result of a few imaginary distributions. The distances match to the reality. The stops have come from the estimate based on the demand analysis. The thesis is divided to two parts, to the theoretical and practical part. In the theoretical part are theoretically explained the used methods in the practical are the methods practically used.

This dissertation employ applied microeconomics techniques with a specific emphasis on behavioral dynamics within the realms of energy and environmental economics. In Chapter one, we investigates the impact of outdoor temperature on productivity in the service sector, using data from the India Human Development Survey. Our findings suggest a precisely estimated zero effect on interview duration, ruling out significant productivity impacts. In Chapter two, we employs a conditional demand analysis on a Canadian electricity consumer data set, highlighting the effectiveness of local heat pumps and thermostat setbacks for electricity savings. Results also reveal trends favoring newer homes in electricity consumption decline. In Chapter three, I study the causal relationship of spatial peer effects from Canada's largest home energy efficiency retrofit program on energy consumption. My results show that close neighbors to energy efficiency retrofitted homes experience a significant reduction in monthly natural gas and electricity consumption. Moreover, visible retrofits, such as windows and doors, significantly impact peer energy savings compared to less visible retrofits.

Thesis (MSc)--Stellenbosch University, 2013. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Supply-demand analysis (SDA) is a tool that allows for the control, regulation and behaviour of metabolic pathways to be understood. In this framework, reactions are grouped into reaction blocks that represent the supply and demand of a metabolic product. The elasticities of these supply and demand blocks can be used to determine the degree of control either block has over the flux in the pathway and the degree of homoeostasis of the metabolic product that links the blocks. Rate characteristic plots, on which the rates of supply and demand blocks are plotted as functions of the concentration of the linking metabolite, represent a powerful visual tool in this framework. Generalised supply-demand analysis (GSDA) allows for the analysis of metabolic models of arbitrary size and complexity without prior knowledge of the regulatory structure of the pathway. This is achieved by performing SDA on each variable metabolite in a pathway instead of choosing a single linking metabolite. GSDA also provides other benefits over SDA as it allows for potential sites of regulation and regulatory metabolites to be identified. Additionally it allows for the identification and quantification of the relative contribution of di erent routes of regulation from an intermediate to a reaction block. Moiety-conserved cycles present a challenge in performing in silico SDA or GSDA, as the total concentration of a moiety must remain constant, thereby limiting the range of possible concentrations of the metabolites between which it cycles. The first goal of this thesis was to develop methods to perform GSDA on two-membered and interlinked moiety-conserved cycles. We showed that by expressing the members of a moiety-conserved cycle as a ratio, rather than individual metabolite concentrations, we can freely vary the ratio without breaking moiety conservation in a GSDA. Furthermore, we showed that by linking the concentrations of the members of two interlinked two-membered moiety-conserved cycles to a “linking metabolite”, we could vary the concentration of this metabolite, within constraints, without breaking moiety conservation. The Python Simulator for Cellular Systems (PySCeS) is a software package developed within our group that provides a variety of tools for the analysis of cellular systems. The RateChar module for PySCeS was previously developed as a tool to perform GSDA on kinetic models of metabolic pathways by automatically generating rate characteristic plots for each variable metabolite in a pathway. The plots generated by RateChar, however, were at times unclear when the models analysed were too complex. Additionally, invalid results where steady-states could not be reached were not filtered out, and therefore appeared together with valid results on the rate characteristic plots generated by RateChar. We therefore set out to improve upon RateChar by building plotting interface that produces clear and error-free rate characteristics. The resulting RCFigure class allows users to interactively change the composition of a rate characteristic plot and it includes automatic error checking. It also provides clearer rate characteristics with e ective use of colour. Using these tools two case studies were undertaken. In the first, GSDA was used to investigate the regulation of aspartate-derived amino acid synthesis in Arabidopsis thaliana. A central result was that the direct interaction of aspartate-semialdehyde (ASA), a metabolite at a branch point in the pathway, with the enzyme that produces it only accounts for 7% of the total response in the flux of supply. Instead, 89% of the observed flux response was due to ASA interacting with of the downstream enzymes for which it is a substrate. This result was unexpected as the ASA producing enzyme had a high elasticity towards ASA. In a second case study moiety-conserved cycles in a model of the pyruvate branches in lactic acid bacteria were linearised using the above mentioned method. This served to illustrate how multiple reaction blocks are connected by these conserved moieties. By performing GSDA on this model, we demonstrated that the interactions of these conserved moieties with the various reaction blocks in the pathway, led to non-monotonic behaviour of the rate characteristics of the supply and demand for the moiety ratios. An example of this is that flux would increase in response to an increase in product for certain ranges. This thesis illustrates the power of GSDA as an entry point in studying metabolic pathways, as it can potentially reveal properties of the regulation and behaviour of metabolic pathways that were not previously known, even if these pathways were subjected to previous analysis and a kinetic model is available. In general it also demonstrates how e ective analysis tools and metabolic models are vital for the study of metabolism. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Vraag-en-aanbod analise (VAA) is ’n analisemetode wat mens in staat stel om die beheer, regulering en gedrag van metaboliese paaie beter te verstaan. In hierdie raamwerk word reaksies gegroepeer as reaksieblokke wat die aanbod (produksiestappe) en die aanvraag (verbruik-stappe) van ’n metaboliese produk verteenwoordig. Vanaf die elastisiteite van hierdie aanbod- en aanvraag-blokke kan die graad van beheer van elkeen van die blokke oor die fluksie, asook die graad van homeostase van die metaboliese koppelingsintermediaat, bereken word. Snelheidskenmerk-grafieke, waarop die snelhede van die vraag- en aanbod-blokke as funksies van die konsentrasie van die koppelingsmetaboliet uiteengesit word, verteenwoordig ’n kragtige visuele hulpmiddel in hierdie raamwerk. Veralgemeende vraag-aanbod analise (VVAA), die veralgemeende vorm van VAA, maak dit moontlikommetaboliese modelle van arbitrêre grootte en kompleksiteit te analiseer sonder enige vooraf-kennis van die regulatoriese struktuur van die paaie. Die prosedure is om VAA op elk van die veranderlike metaboliete in die pad uit te voer, eerder as om ’n enkele koppelingsmetaboliet te kies. VVAA het ook ander voordele bo VAA aangesien dit potensiële setels van regulering en regulatoriese metaboliete kan identifiseer. Daarbenewens kan dit die relatiewe bydrae van verskillende regulerings-roetes van vanaf ’n intermediaat na ’n reaksieblok identifiseer en hulle kwantifiseer. Groep-gekonserveerde siklusse bied ’n uitdaging vir in silico VAA of VVAA, aangesien die totale konsentrasie van die gekonserveerde groep konstant moet bly. Dit beperk die waardes van moontlike konsentrasies van die metaboliete wat die siklus uitmaak. Die eerste doelstelling van hierdie tesis was dus om metodes te ontwikkel waarmee VVAA op tweeledige en saamgebonde groep-gekonserveerde siklusse uitgevoer kan word. Deur die lede van groep-gekonserveerde siklusse eerder as verhoudings uit te druk in plaas van as individuele metabolietkonsentrasies, het ons gewys dat ons hierdie verhouding vrylik kan varieer sonder om die groep-konservering te breek in ’n VVAA. Ons het ook gewys dat die konsentrasies van die lede van ’n saamgebonde groep-gekonserveerde siklus gekoppel kan word aan ’n “koppelingsmetaboliet”, waarvan die konsentrasie dan binne perke gevarieer kan word sonder om die groep-konservering te breek. Die “Python Simulator for Cellular Systems” (PySCeS) is ’n programmatuur-pakket wat binne ons navorsingsgroep ontwikkel is met die doel om sellulêre sisteme numeries te analiseer. Die RateChar module vir PySCeS was reeds voor die aanvang van hierdie projek ontwikkel om VVAAop kinetiese modelle van metaboliese paaie uit te voer deur outomaties snelheidskenmerke vir elke veranderlikke metaboliet te genereer. Die grafieke wat deur RateChar gegenereer is, was egter soms onduidelik wanneer die modelle te groot of kompleks geraak het. Daarbenewens is ongeldige resultate, waar ’n bestendige toestand nie bereik kon word nie, nie uitgefiltreer nie, en het dus saam met geldige resultate op die snelheidskenmerke verskyn. Een van die doelstellings was dus om RateChar te verbeter deur ’n koppelvlak vir grafieke te ontwikkel wat duidelike en foutlose snelheidskenmerke kon produseer. Dit het gelei tot die RCFigure klas wat outomatiese foutopsporing uitvoer en gebruikers in staat stel om op ’n interaktiewe wyse die samestelling van ’n snelheidskenmerkgrafiek te verander. Dit bied ook duideliker snelheidskenmerke deur e ektief van kleur gebruik te maak. Met hierdie ontwikkelde gereedskap is twee gevallestudies onderneem. In die eerste is VVAA gebruik om die regulering van aspartaat-afgeleide aminosuursintese in Arabidopsis thaliana te bestudeer. Die belangrikste resultaat was dat die direkte interaksie van aspartaat-semialdehied (ASA), ’n metaboliet by ’n vertakkingspunt in die pad, met die ensiem wat dit produseer, slegs vir 7% van die totale respons in die aanbod-fluksie verantwoordelik was. Daarteen was 89% van die waargenome fluksierespons die gevolg van die interaksie van ASA met drie van die stroomafensieme, waarvoor dit ’n substraat is. Hierdie resultaat was onverwag aangesien die ensiem wat ASA produseer ’n hoë elastisiteit teenoor ASA toon. In ’n tweede gevallestudie is die groep-gekonserveerde siklusse in ’n model van die pirovaat-takke in melksuurbakterie-metabolisme gelineariseer deur gebruik te maak van die bo beskrewe metode. Dit illustreer hoe verskeie reaksieblokke verbind word deur hierdie gekonserveerde groepe. M.b.v. ’n VVAA van hierdie model het ons gedemonstreer dat die interaksies van die gekonserveerde groepe met die verskeie reaksieblokke in die pad kan lei tot nie-monotoniese gedrag van die snelheidskenmerke van die vraag- en aanbod-reaksies vir die verhouding van die gekonserveerde groep-komponente. ’n Voorbeeld hiervan is die onverwagte waarneming dat die fluksie toeneem met toenemende produk-konsentrasie oor sekere gebiede. Hierdie tesis illustreer die krag van VVAA as ’n beginpunt vir die studie van metaboliese paaie, aangesien dit onbekende regulatoriese eienskappe en gedragspatrone kan ontbloot, selfs al is die paaie vantevore m.b.v. kinetiese modelle geanaliseer. Oor die algemeen demonstreer dit die noodsaaklikheid van e ektiewe analisegereedskap en metaboliese modelle vir die bestudering van metabolisme. / National Research Foundation

La thèse étudie théoriquement et empiriquement la gestion des services écosystémiques par les agriculteurs sous le prisme économique. La thèse se divise en deux parties. Dans la première partie, je m'intéresse à l'offre et à la demande de services écosystémiques productifs en analysant le comportement des agriculteurs. J'introduis des indicateurs de biodiversité dépendants des assolements dans des modèles existants issus de l'économie de production. Ma principale contribution à la littérature est de prouver, à partir de l'analyse des comportements observés des agriculteurs, que les agriculteurs gèrent consciemment les services écosystémiques productifs. J'apporte d'autres éléments à la littérature, comme e.g. des nouveaux éléments sur la technologie agricole ou en montrant que la gestion collective des services écosystémiques productifs ne peut que rarement émergée spontanément dans des paysages réels.Dans la deuxième partie, j’étudie la demande de services écosystémiques non-productifs fournis par les agriculteurs. J’applique plusieurs cadres d’analyse développés en économie de l’environnement aux spécificités de l’agriculture, i.e. le service environnemental influe le plus souvent sur la fourniture de multiple biens publics, biens publics présentant des distributions spatiales de la demande différentes. Je contribue à la littérature en montrant que, bien que la plupart de la demande pour les services environnementaux fournis par les agriculteurs soit capturée localement (à l’échelle de la municipalité) ; une partie de la demande s’exprime à des échelles plus importantes / The thesis studies both theoretically and empirically the management of ecosystem services by farmers in two parts. In the first part, I study the supply and demand for productive ecosystem services by analyzing farmers’ behavior. I introduce biodiversity indicators that depend on acreage into existing models from production economics. My main contribution to the literature is to prove, from the analysis of farmers' observed behavior that farmers consciously manage productive ecosystem services. I bring other elements to the literature, such as new elements on the agricultural technology or showing that the collective management of ecosystem services rarely arises spontaneously in real landscapes.In the second part, I study the demand for non- productive ecosystem services. I apply several analytical frameworks developed in environmental economics to the specificities of agriculture, i.e. the environmental service influences the supply of multiple public goods with different spatial distribution of the demand. I contribute to the literature by showing that while most of the demand for environmental services provided by farmers is captured locally (at the municipal level), a part of the demand is expressed at larger scales. This has implications for agri-environmental policies, which I explore through two examples: the pesticide savings and the maintenance of agricultural wetlands

O principal objetivo deste trabalho é analisar a aplicabilidade de um minerador de dados para obter relações entre padrões de viagens encadeadas e características sócio-econômicas de viajantes urbanos. Para representar as viagens encadeadas, as viagens correspondentes a cada indivíduo do banco de dados foram codificadas em termos de seqüência de letras que indicam uma ordem cronológica em que atividades são desenvolvidas. O minerador de dados utilizado neste trabalho é árvore de decisão e classificação, uma ferramenta de análise disponível no software S-Plus. A análise foi baseada na pesquisa origem-destino realizada pelo Metrô-SP na região metropolitana de São Paulo, por meio de entrevistas domiciliares, em 1987. Um dos importantes resultados é que indivíduos que têm atributos sócio-econômicos e de viagens similares não se comportam de maneira similar; pelo contrário, eles fazem diferentes padrões de viagens encadeadas, as quais podem ser descritas em termos de probabilidade ou freqüência associada a cada padrão. Portanto, o minerador de dados deve possuir a habilidade para representar essa distribuição. A consistência do resultado foi analisada comparando-os com alguns resultados encontrados na literatura referente a análise de viagem baseada em atividades. A principal conclusão é que árvore de decisão e classificação aplicada a dados individuais, contendo encadeamento de viagem codificado e atributos socioeconômicos e de viagem, permite extrair conhecimento e informações ocultas que ajudam a compreender o comportamento de viagem de viajantes urbanos. / The main aim of this work is to analyze the applicability of a data miner for obtaining relationships between trip-chaining patterns and urban trip-makers socioeconomic characteristics. In order to represent the trip-chains, trips corresponding to each individual in the data set were coded in terms of letters indicating a chronological order in which activities are performed. Data miner applied in this work is decision and classification tree, an analysis tool available in S-Plus software package. The analysis was based on the origin-destination home-interview survey carried out by Metrô-SP in São Paulo metropolitan area. One of the important findings is that individuals having similar socieconomic and trip attributes do not behave in a similar way; on the contrary, they make different trip-chaining patterns, which may be described in term of probability or frequency associated to each pattern. Therefore, the data miner should have ability to represent that distribution. The consistency of results was analyzed by comparing them with some results found in literature related to activity-based travel analysis. The main conclusion is that decision and classification tree applied to individual data, containing coded trip-chaining and socioeconomic and trip attributes, allows extracting hidden knowledge and information that help to understand the travel behaviour of urban trip-makers.

O principal objetivo deste trabalho é analisar a aplicabilidade de um minerador de dados para obter relações entre padrões de viagens encadeadas e características sócio-econômicas de viajantes urbanos. Para representar as viagens encadeadas, as viagens correspondentes a cada indivíduo do banco de dados foram codificadas em termos de seqüência de letras que indicam uma ordem cronológica em que atividades são desenvolvidas. O minerador de dados utilizado neste trabalho é árvore de decisão e classificação, uma ferramenta de análise disponível no software S-Plus. A análise foi baseada na pesquisa origem-destino realizada pelo Metrô-SP na região metropolitana de São Paulo, por meio de entrevistas domiciliares, em 1987. Um dos importantes resultados é que indivíduos que têm atributos sócio-econômicos e de viagens similares não se comportam de maneira similar; pelo contrário, eles fazem diferentes padrões de viagens encadeadas, as quais podem ser descritas em termos de probabilidade ou freqüência associada a cada padrão. Portanto, o minerador de dados deve possuir a habilidade para representar essa distribuição. A consistência do resultado foi analisada comparando-os com alguns resultados encontrados na literatura referente a análise de viagem baseada em atividades. A principal conclusão é que árvore de decisão e classificação aplicada a dados individuais, contendo encadeamento de viagem codificado e atributos socioeconômicos e de viagem, permite extrair conhecimento e informações ocultas que ajudam a compreender o comportamento de viagem de viajantes urbanos. / The main aim of this work is to analyze the applicability of a data miner for obtaining relationships between trip-chaining patterns and urban trip-makers socioeconomic characteristics. In order to represent the trip-chains, trips corresponding to each individual in the data set were coded in terms of letters indicating a chronological order in which activities are performed. Data miner applied in this work is decision and classification tree, an analysis tool available in S-Plus software package. The analysis was based on the origin-destination home-interview survey carried out by Metrô-SP in São Paulo metropolitan area. One of the important findings is that individuals having similar socieconomic and trip attributes do not behave in a similar way; on the contrary, they make different trip-chaining patterns, which may be described in term of probability or frequency associated to each pattern. Therefore, the data miner should have ability to represent that distribution. The consistency of results was analyzed by comparing them with some results found in literature related to activity-based travel analysis. The main conclusion is that decision and classification tree applied to individual data, containing coded trip-chaining and socioeconomic and trip attributes, allows extracting hidden knowledge and information that help to understand the travel behaviour of urban trip-makers.

Shape Memory Alloys (SMAs) exhibit the ability to undergo large deformations but can recover permanent strains via heating (shape memory effect) or when stress is removed (superelastic effect). This study evaluates the comparative seismic performance of steel moment resisting frames (SMRFs) with innovative beam-to-column connections that use SMA bars as connecting elements. The performance evaluation studies are based on two types of SMA beam-to-column connections: (1) superelastic SMA connections with recentering capability; (2) martensitic SMA connections with high energy dissipation capacity. Fiber models for these SMA connections are implemented in the OpenSees finite element framework, and are verified against data from full-scale experimental tests that were performed on a prototype SMA connection in previous research at Georgia Tech. Three- and a nine-story model buildings with partially-restrained (PR) moment frames are selected from the SAC Phase II Project as case studies. Non-linear time history analyses on these model buildings, with and without SMA connections, are conducted using suites of ground acceleration records from the SAC Phase II project that represent different seismic hazard levels. Several SMA connections are designed for each structure, and their effect on peak and residual inter-story drift angles, connection rotations, and normalized dissipated hysteretic energy demands are investigated to determine the most suitable design. Finally, the seismic demands on the model buildings with conventional PR and selected SMA connections are evaluated in a probabilistic framework. The resulting seismic demand relationships are used to assess the effectiveness of the SMA connections in enhancing the building performance over a range of demand levels. The results of this performance evaluation show that the SMA connections are most effective in controlling structural response under high levels of seismic intensity leading to large deformation demands. In particular, the energy dissipating SMA connections are found to be effective in reducing maximum deformation demands, while the recentering SMA connections are more suitable for controlling residual deformations in the structure.

Electricity is the most preferred source of energy, because of its quality and convenience of usage. It is probably one of the most vital infrastructural inputs for economic development of a country. Indeed it is the fulcrum which can leverage the future pace of growth and development. These reasons have made the electric power industry one of the fastest growing sectors in most developing countries and particularly in India. Therefore it is not surprising to observe the economic growth of a country being related to the increase in electricity consumption. In India, the growth rate of demand for power is generally higher than that of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). However, to achieve this kind of growth in electricity supply, the capital investments required are very huge. Even though the electricity sector generally gels a major share in the budgetary allocations in India, this is inadequate to add the required quantum of new generation capacity to keep pace with the increase in demand for electricity. Additional constraints like capital scarcity in the public sector, lack of enthusiasm among the private and foreign investors, and strong opposition from the environmentalists have further contributed to this slow pace of new generating capacity addition. This has resulted in severely constrained systems in India. The main focus of the present research work is on the development of an integrated approach for electricity planning using a mathematical modeling framework in (he context of resource constrained systems. There are very few attempts in the literature to integrate short, medium and long term issues in electricity planning. This is understandable from the point of view of unconstrained electricity systems where this type of integration is unnecessary since such systems have a luxury of surplus capacity to meet the current demand and capacity additions are required only for meeting predicted future increase in demand. However, in the case of constrained electricity systems, which are characterized by shortages, this kind of integration is very essential. These systems have to manage with inadequate capacity in the present, plan capacity additions to bridge the existing gap and to meet future increase in demand, and always explore the possibility of adding capacity with short gestation period. The integrated approach is expected to achieve effective supply-demand matching on a continuous basis encompassing both the short term and long term horizons. To achieve this, we have considered three alternatives- existing supply, new supply and non-supply (rationing) of electricity. The electricity system of the state of Karnataka, which is severely constrained by both limited capital and energy resources, has been selected for this purpose. As a first step, the supply and demand situation has been studied in the context of resource constraints. In terms of supply, both existing and future additions are studied in detail with respect to the potential created, generation types, import potential, technical constraints, energy and power shortages, planned and proposed capacity additions by both public and private sectors, etc. The demand patterns have been studied by introducing a new concept of "Representative Load Curves (RLCs)". These RLCs are used to model the temporal and structural variations in demand for electricity. Also, appropriate non-supply options (rationing measures) for effective management of shortages are identified. Incorporating this information, an integrated mathematical model, which is expected to generate a target plan for a detailed generation scheduling exercises and a requirement plan for a regular generation expansion planning, has been developed. The other important alternative "Demand-Side-Management (DSM)", which could be considered as an effective option to achieve efficient supply-demand matching has not been included in the present research work. The major reason for not including the DSM alternatives is due to the difficulty in integrating these in the modelling approach adopted here. In the present approach we have used typical daily load curves (RLCs) to represent the demand for electricity. These are aggregate load curves and do not contain any sector-wise or end-use-wisc details. On the other hand, DSM alternatives are end-use focused. To incorporate DSM alternatives, we should have information on end-usc-wisc power demand (kW or MW), savings potential, time-of-use, etc. For this purpose it may be required to have end-use-wisc daily load curves. This information is not available and a separate detailed survey may be required to generate these load curves. This, we felt, is out of the scope of this present research work and a separate study may be required to do this. Therefore, we restricted our focus to supply planning alone. A detailed literature review is conducted to understand different types of modeling approaches to electricity planning. For the present study, however, the review of literature has been restricted to the methods of generation expansion planning and scheduling. In doing so, we attempted to bring out the differences in various approaches in terms of solution methods adopted, alternatives included and modifications suggested. Also, we briefly reviewed the literature on models for power and energy rationing, because management of shortages is an important aspect of the present study. Subsequently, a separate section is devoted to present an overview of the non-supply of electricity and its economic impacts on the consumers. We found that the low reliability of the electrical system is an indicator of the existence of severe shortages of power and energy, which cause non-supply of electricity to the consumers. The overview also presented a discussion on reasons for non-supply of electricity, and the types of non-supply options the utilities adopt to over come these shortages. We also attempted to explain what we mean by non-supply of electricity, what are its cost implications, and the methods available in the literature to estimate these costs. The first objective of the research pertains to the development of a new approach to model the varying demand for electricity. Using the concept of Representative Load Curves (RLCs) we model the hourly demand for a period of four years, 1993-94, 1994-95, 1995-96 and 1996-97, to understand the demand patterns of both unconstrained and constrained years. Multiple discriminant analysis has been used to cluster the 365 load curves into nine RLCs for each of the four years. The results show that these RLCs adequately model the variations in demand and bring out the distinctions in the demand patterns existed during the unconstrained and constrained years. The demand analysis using RLCs helped to study the differences in demand patterns with and without constraints, impacts of constraints on preferred pattern of electricity consumption, success of non-supply options in both reducing the demand levels and greatly disturbing the electricity usage patterns. Multifactor ANOVA analyses are performed to quantify the statistical significance of the ability of the logically obtained factors in explaining the overall variations in demand. The results of the ANOVA analysis clearly showed that the considered factors accounted for maximum variations in demand at very high significance levels. It also brought out the significant influence of rationing measures in explaining the variations in demand during the constrained years. Concerning the second objective, we explained in detail, the development of an integrated mixed integer-programming model, which we felt is appropriate for planning in the case of resource constrained electricity systems. Two types of integrations are attempted (i) existing supply, non-supply and new supply options for dynamically matching supply and demand, (ii) operational and strategic planning in terms of providing target plans for the former and requirement plans for the latter. Broadly, the approach addresses the effective management of existing capacity, optimal rationing plan to effectively manage shortages and rationally decide on the new capacity additions both to bridge the existing gap between supply and demand, and to meet the future increases in demand. There is also an attempt to arrive at an optimal mix of public and private capacity additions for a given situation. Finally, it has been attempted to verify the possibility of integration of captive generation capacity with the grid. Further, we discussed in detail about the data required for the model implementation. The model is validated through the development of a number of scenarios for the state of Karnataka. The base case scenario analyses are carried out for both the unconstrained and constrained years to compare the optimal allocations with actual allocations that were observed, and to find out how sensitive are the results for any change in the values of various parameters. For the constrained years, a few more scenarios are used to compare the optimal practice of managing shortages with to what has been actually followed by the utility. The optimal allocations of the predicted demand to various existing supply and non-supply options clearly showed that the actual practice, reflected by the actual RLCs, are highly ad hoc and sub-optimal. The unit cost comparisons among different scenarios show that the least cost choice of options by the utility does not necessarily lead to good choices from the consumers’ perspective. Further, a number of future scenarios are developed to verify the ability of the model to achieve the overall objective of supply-demand matching both in the short and long term. For this purpose both the short horizon annual scenarios (1997-98 to 2000-01) and long horizon terminal year scenarios (2005-06 and 2010-11) are developed assuming capacity additions from only public sector. Overall, the results indicated that with marginal contributions from non-supply options and if the public sector generates enough resources to add the required capacity, optimal matching of supply and demand could be achieved. The scenario analyses also showed that it is more economical to have some level of planned rationing compared to having a more reliable system. The quantum of new capacity additions required and the level of investments associated with it clearly indicated the urgent need of private sector participation in capacity additions. Finally, we made an attempt to verify the applicability of the integrated model to analyse the implications of private sector participation in capacity additions. First, a number of scenarios are developed to study the optimal allocations of predicted hourly demand to private capacity under different situations. Secondly, the impacts of privatisation on the public utility and consumers are analysed. Both short term and long term scenarios are developed for this purpose. The results showed the advantage of marginal non-supply of electricity both in terms of achieving overall effective supply-demand matching and economic benefits that could be generated through cost savings. The results also showed the negative impacts of high guarantees offered to the private sector in terms of the opportunity costs of reduced utilization of both the existing and new public capacity. The estimates of unit cost of supply and effective cost of supply facilitated the relative comparison among various scenarios as well as finding out the merits and demerits of guarantees to private sector and non-supply of electricity. The unit cost estimates are also found to be useful in studying the relative increase in electricity prices for consumers on account of privatization, guarantees and reliable supply of electricity. Using the results of scenario analyses, likely generation expansion plans till the year 2010-11 are generated. The analyses have been useful in providing insights into fixing the availability and plant load factors for the private sector capacity. Based on the analysis, the recommended range for plant utilization factor is 72.88 - 80.57%. The estimated generation losses and the associated economic impacts of backing down of existing and new public capacity on account of guarantees offered to private sector are found to be significantly high. The analyses also showed that the backing down might take place mainly during nights and low demand periods of monsoon and winter seasons. Other impacts of privatization that studied are in terms of increased number of alternatives for the utility to buy electricity for distribution and the associated increase in its cost of purchase. Regarding the consumers, the major impact could be in terms of significant increase in expected tariffs. The major contributions of this thesis are summarized as follows: i. An integrated approach to electricity planning that is reported here, is unique in the sense that it considers options available under various alternatives, namely, existing supply, non-supply and new supply. This approach is most suited for severely constrained systems having to manage with both energy and capital resource shortages. ii. The integration of operational and strategic planning with coherent target plans for the former and requirement plans for the latter bridges the prevailing gap in electricity planning approaches. iii. The concept of Representative Load Curves (RLCs), which is introduced here, captures the hourly, daily and seasonal variations in demand. Together, all the RLCs developed for a given year are expected to model the hourly demand patterns of that year. These RLCs are useful for planning in resource constrained electricity systems and in situations where it is required to know the time variations in demand (e.g. supply-demand matching, seasonal scheduling of hydro plants and maintenance scheduling). RLCs are also useful in identifying the factors influencing variations in demand. This approach will overcome the limitations of current method of representation in the form of static and aggregate annual load duration curves. iv. A new term, "non-supply of electricity" has been introduced in this thesis. A brief overview of non-supply presented here includes reasons for non-supply, type of non-supply, methods to estimate cost of non-supply and factors influencing these estimates. v. The integrated mixed integer programming model developed in the study has been demonstrated as a planning tool for- • Optimal hourly and seasonal scheduling of various existing supply, non-supply and new supply options • Estimation of supply shortages on a representative hourly basis using the information on resource constraints • Effectively planning non-supply of electricity through appropriate power/energy rationing methods • Estimation of the need for the new capacity additions both to bridge the existing gap and to take care of increase in future demand levels • Optimal filling of gaps between demand and supply on a representative hourly basis through new supply of electricity • Optimally arriving at the judicious mix of public and private capacity additions • Studying the impacts of private capacity on the existing and new public sector capacity, and on the consumers • Optimally verifying the feasibility of integrating the captive generation with the total system vi. The demand analysis using RLCs helped to bring out the differences in demand patterns with and without constraints, impacts of constraints on preferred pattern of electricity consumption, success of non-supply options in both reducing the demand levels and greatly disturbing the electricity usage patterns. Multifactor ANOVA analyses results showed that the logically obtained factors accounted for maximum variations in demand at very high significance levels. vii. A comparison of optimal (represented by optimal predicted RLCs) and actual (reflected by actual RLCs) practices facilitated by the model showed that the actual practice during constrained years is highly ad hoc and sub-optimal. viii. The results of the scenario analyses showed that it is more economical to have some amount of planned rationing compared to having a more reliable system, which does not allow non-supply of electricity. ix. The scenarios, which analysed the impacts of high guarantees offered to the private sector, showed the negative impacts of these in terms of reduced utilization of both the existing and new public capacity. x. Generation expansion plans till the year 2010-11 are developed using the results of various kinds of scenario analyses. Two groups of year-wise generation expansion plans are generated, one with only public sector capacity additions and the other with private sector participation. xi. The impacts of privatization of capacity additions are studied from the point of view of the utility and consumers in terms of expected increase in cost of purchase of electricity and tariffs. xii. The analyses are also made for developing some insights into fixing the availability and plant load factors for the private capacity. Based on the analysis, the recommended range for plant utilization factor is 72.88 - 80.57%. We believe that the integrated approach presented and the results obtained in this thesis would help utilities (both suppliers and distributors of electricity) and governments in making rational choices in the context of resource constrained systems. The results reported here may also be used towards rationalization of Government policies vis-a-vis tariff structures in the supply of electricity, planning new generation capacity additions and effective rationing of electricity. It is also hoped that the fresh approach adopted in this thesis would attract further investigations in future research on resource constrained systems.