Oil and natural gas are the most strategic raw materials to meet the expanding energy requirement in today&rsquo / s world. They have great impact on issues such as economy, national security, development, competition, and political consistency. Being a developing country, Turkey&rsquo / s natural gas requirement is increasing rapidly. However, the production is far from covering the demand. Recent assumptions point out that natural gas demand of Turkey will reach 44 billion cubic meters in 2010 with a financial burden of 10 billion $ to the national economy. Therefore Turkey requires meeting natural gas demand by using its own conventional natural gas resources. The geological researches and global data encourage Turkey to drill more exploration wells in offshore side of Western Black Sea .In early 2007, the production will be started in Western Black Sea Region with 1.42 million cubic meter gas per day. Moreover, further exploration and production activities in the region are still continuing in order to increase the production. In this thesis, issues such as importance of the natural gas for Turkey and the world, Turkey&rsquo / s present energy situation and natural gas supply and demand scenarios for Turkey have been investigated. The possible impact of natural gas exploration and production in Black Sea region on Turkey&rsquo / s economy in near future has been emphasized. An extensive literature survey using related printed and unprinted media has been performed in order to collect the necessary data and information.

Submitted by Geandra Rodrigues (geandrar@gmail.com) on 2018-05-10T12:15:28Z No. of bitstreams: 1 alexandredasilvafernandes.pdf: 3326554 bytes, checksum: f4dfcfe70bde99c5ebe4501f03add83e (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Adriana Oliveira (adriana.oliveira@ufjf.edu.br) on 2018-05-22T15:33:53Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 alexandredasilvafernandes.pdf: 3326554 bytes, checksum: f4dfcfe70bde99c5ebe4501f03add83e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-05-22T15:33:53Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 alexandredasilvafernandes.pdf: 3326554 bytes, checksum: f4dfcfe70bde99c5ebe4501f03add83e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-02-20 / O planejamento da operação do Sistema Interligado Nacional constitui-se uma tarefa de alta complexidade, seja pela quantidade acentuada de usinas hidrelétricas e termelétricas distribuídas nos quatro submercados interligados, ou pelas características marcantes da operação das hidrelétricas, no que diz respeito às incertezas dos cenários hidrológicos futuros e aos acoplamentos espacial e temporal. O objetivo deste planejamento é a determinação de uma política ótima de despacho das usinas do sistema de modo a minimizar o valor esperado dos custos operativos no horizonte considerado. Uma importante restrição do problema é o suprimento da demanda de energia elétrica, dado pela diferença entre a carga efetiva de cada submercado e a geração das usinas não simuladas, esta última composta pela energias alternativas (eólica, solar, biomassa), pequenas centrais hidrelétricas, entre outros. Entretanto, a crescente penetração da geração renovável, aliada às incertezas das fontes naturais como eólica e solar (pois dependem de fatores climáticos e por isso são imprevisíveis), contribui com a necessidade de representação da demanda em diversos cenários para um correto despacho das usinas e uma operação do sistema mais confiável. Sabendo que os modelos oficiais atuais tratam apenas as incertezas oriundas dos cenários hidrológicos, devido à dificuldade de implementação e alocação de memória na consideração de outras incertezas na Programação Dinâmica Dual Estocástica, o trabalho desenvolvido nesta dissertação propõe metodologias que incluem os diversos cenários de demanda, além de representar com maior detalhe a geração das hidrelétricas. Além disso, são propostos algoritmos de representação analítica da Função de Custo Imediato em sistemas isolados e com múltiplas áreas na busca por uma redução das dimensões do problema tratado. Finalmente, são realizados testes em sistemas tutorias e os resultados são analisados para avaliar as performances computacionais das metodologias propostas. / The operation schedulling of Brazilian System constitutes a task of high complexity, either due to the large number of hydro and thermal plants distributed in the four interconnected submarkets, or due to the outstanding characteristics of the hydro plants, with respect to the uncertainties in the hydrological scenarios future and due to spatial and temporal couplings. The objective of this planning is the determination of an optimal dispatch policy of plants that minimizes the expected value of the operating costs in the considered horizon. An important constraint is the supply of demand, which is obtained by the difference between the effective load of each submarket and the generation of non-simulated plants, composed of renewable energies (wind, solar, biomass), small hydropower plants, and others. However, the growing penetration of renewable generation, coupled with the uncertainties of natural sources such as wind and solar (because they depend on climatic factors and are therefore unpredictable), contributes to the need to represent demand in different scenarios for a correct dispatch of the plants and a more reliable system operation. Knowing that the current official models deal only with the uncertainties arising from the hydrological scenarios, due to the difficulty of implementation and memory allocation in the consideration of other uncertainties in Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming, this work proposes methodologies that include the several scenarios demand, besides representing in greater detail the generation of hydroelectric plants. In addition, algorithms are proposed for analytical representation of the Immediate Cost Function in isolated systems with multiple areas in the search for a reduction of the dimensions of the problem. Finally, tests are performed on tutorial systems and the results are analyzed to evaluate the computational performances of the proposed methodologies.