Includes bibliographical references (leaves 74-79). / This research develops estimates of mortality rates for adult Africans in South Africa for the twelve months preceding the census night, 9/10 October 2Q(B, using Census 2001 10% sample data. The approach used to estimate these rates follow the work done by Dorrington, Moultrie and Timaeus (2004) working with the full dataset, which is not publicly anilable, and demonstrate that the 10% sample can be used to produce similar results to the full database. The approach makes use of indirect estimation techniques for estimating the completeness of reporting of deaths in the vital registration system at a national level, namely the combination of Generalized Growth Balance method (GGB) and the Synthetic Extinct Generations (SEG) method adapted to allow for net immigration over the inter-censal period.

Includes abstract. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 79-84). / This study has two goals. The first is to assess the consistency of the childhood mortality trends constructed from the direct and the indirect methods of estimation in high HIV prevalence scttings. The second goal is to assess the direct impact of HIV / AIDS on childhood mortality in Kenya and Malawi for the periods 1999 - 2003 and 2000 - 2004 respectively. It is important to understand the impact of HIV on childhood mortality and childhood mortality measurement to ensure that child health planning and cvaluation are correctly informed.

Includes bibliographic references (leaves 74-76). / This study evaluates the overall impact of the bias due to HIV/AIDS on the own-child method of estimating child mortality, and the contribution of the various components to the overall bias. Indirect estimates of child mortality are calculated by applying the own-child method to the 2009 Lesotho Demographic and Health Survey (LDHS) and the 2005-6 Zimbabwe DHS. In the process, the potential of the software, MATCHTAB, to link successfully surviving children to their biological mothers is demonstrated using the 2006 Lesotho census data. To evaluate the impact of HIV/AIDS on the own-child method, the target estimates of child mortality for Lesotho and Zimbabwe are also developed by adjusting the direct estimates from the full history data for the selection has introduced by HIV/AIDS.

Includes abstract. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 66-68). / Apartheid policies have been criticised for widening inequalities between population groups in South Africa. They have also been considered to have dictated differentials in demographic parameters. With lack of adequate data on social and economic variables in most demographic surveys including DHS, the use of race as a determinant of fertility seems plausible. With adequate data on social and economic factors, we use the NIDS survey to assess the effects of race on fertility after adequately controlling for social and economic factors. A logistic regression model is applied to assess the chance that a woman aged 20-24 has given birth by age 20 and a woman aged 25-29, by age 25. A linear regression model is also applied on the number of children born to a woman, standardised by age. The results show that the effect of race on fertility is not significant.

Includes abstract. / Includes bibliographical references. / This research performs two investigations into the causal link between childhood mortality and fertility using Demographic and Health Survey data from Kenya, Lesotho, Malawi, Tanzania and Zimbabwe, countries which are at different stages of the demographic transition. The first investigation assesses the effect of the death of a child on the timing of the birth of the next child. Piecewise log-rate models were used to investigate women who had experienced the loss of a child and in all the countries under study these women were found to have shorter birth intervals. The magnitude of the effect was strongest in Lesotho and Zimbabwe. The second investigation assesses the effect of the death of at least one child on insuring against future mortality. Logistic regression models showed that women aged 35-49 years old who had experienced at least one child death were likely to insure against future child mortality. This effect was most pronounced in Malawi.

The aim of this study is derive robust and reliable estimates of level and trend in adult mortality in Zambia. To derive the estimates of the level and trend in adult mortality, the study applies the following techniques: the Census Survival method and Preston-Bennett method to Zambian census data for 1980, 1990 and 2000 to estimate life expectancies at age 5 and above as well as probabilities of dying between ages 15 and 60 years; the orphanhood method to 1992, 1996, 2001/2 and 2007 Zambia Demographic and Health Surveys (ZDHS) and 1996, 1998, 2002/3, 2004 and 2006 Living Conditions Monitoring Survey (LCMS) information on survivorship of parents to estimate probabilities of dying between ages 25 and 35 ( 10 25 q ); and 25 and 40 ( 15 25 q ) for females; and 35 and 45 ( 10 35 q ) for males; the siblinghood method using the 1996, 2001/2 and 2007 ZDHS sibling histories data to estimate the probabilities of dying between ages 15 and 50 years ( 35 15 q ) for both males and females; the Generalised Growth Balance and Bennett-Horiuchi 'Extended SEG' methods using the 1996, 2004 and 2006 LCMS household deaths in the last 12 months to estimate completeness of reporting of deaths relative to the coverage of surveys and hence the probability of dying between ages 15 and 60. The Census Survival and Preston-Bennett method do not produce accurate measures of mortality, or trend for females but does for males. The orphanhood method does capture some of the trend but fails to provide definitive estimates of mortality. The siblinghood method produces an inconclusive pattern of adult mortality. The GGB and 'Extended SEG' methods perform well with the 1996- 2004, 1996-2006 inter-survey periods. The methods also perform well with male LCMS data for 2004-2006 inter-survey periods. The GGB and 'Extended SEG' methods produced a good fit to age ranges 5+ to 60+. The study finds that adult female mortality is higher than male adult mortality, 69 per cent and 64 per cent, respectively. These adult mortality rates are comparable to estimates from other sources. Further research is needed on how to refine the GGB and SEG method to perform better with survey data. Research is needed to understand why the siblinghood method produced inconclusive estimates of the level and trend of adult mortality. The study recommends that the LCMS survey should add month and year at death to questions on household deaths to deal with the problem of time reference. The 2010 Zambian census should add questions on orphanhood and household deaths.

Includes abstract. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 59-63). / The lack of reliable data for child mortality estimation since 1998 has meant that child mortality rates for South Africa have not been updated for almost ten years now. It is the overall aim of this research to explore the possibility of determining up-to-date estimates of South Africa's infant mortality and under-five mortality rates from the 2007 Community Survey data and to use these results to describe the trend in child mortality rates since 1996.

Includes abstract. / Includes bibliographical references. / This study assesses the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (IGME) methods of estimating the infant and neonatal mortality rates from the under-five mortality rates in countries affected by HIV/AIDS. It uses Botswana, Malawi and South Africa as case studies. The assessment is made by comparing the IGME results with estimates from projection models and empirical results computed from survey data and vital statistics data corrected for the level of incompleteness for the countries included in the study. In addition, relevant literature is reviewed in order to determine the reasonableness and impact (on the results produced) of the assumptions made by the method.

This study investigates the extent of bias in the estimates of infant and under-five mortality derived from the Brass children ever born children surviving (CEB/CS) method as a result of HIV/AIDS. The bias is estimated by comparing the infant and under-five mortality derived from the CEB/CS method with direct estimates from the full birth history data from recent DHS data. The estimates from the full birth history data have been corrected for bias due to HIV/AIDS using the method used by IGME. IMRs and U5MRs derived from data from women aged 25-39 were underestimated by up to 15% in the six countries studied. Estimates of bias in data derived from women aged 20-24 differed between countries. The results from these younger women could be affected by differences between the indirect and direct methods of estimation. In two of the countries, estimates of overall bias of more than 30% were observed. The bulk of the overall bias is due to the effect of HIV on the survival of mothers and their children. The choice of model life table does not introduce much bias, especially in estimates of under-five mortality where the absolute bias in most countries was less than 3%.

This research applies direct and indirect methods to data from censuses and Demographic and Health Surveys to derive empirical estimates of the level and trends of child and adult mortality in Zimbabwe from 1980 to 2005.