No description available.

A Final Report Submitted to the U.S. Forest Service, Safford Ranger District, P.O. Box 709, Safford, Arizona 85548

No description available.

No description available.

Carbon dioxide release from fossil-fuel burning is significant enough that we may soon experience perceptible changes in climate with important human consequences. Man's activities involving deforestation and agriculture have undoubtedly also affected atmospheric CO₂, although quantitative, and even qualitative, net effects of these processes are incompletely understood relative to fossil-fuel production. An accurate reconstruction of past ¹³C/¹²C ratios of atmospheric CO₂ may provide key constraints on the historical activity of the biosphere as CO₂ source or sink. Tree rings appear to be a repository of this information but there is much noise in the collection of previous reconstructions, presumably associated with site selection, radial variability, choice of representative wood chemical constituent, and subtle effects of climate on fractionation. This study attempts to avoid these pitfalls and develop a 50-yr δ¹³C(ATM) record from juniper trees (genus Juniperus), in fact, by taking advantage of the influence of climate on fractionation. Trees were harvested from suitable sites in close proximity to weather stations with monthly records of temperature and precipitation. Ring material was then separated from each of the sections in 5-yr intervals from 1930 to 1979 around their full circumference, and cellulose was extracted from the wood. After measuring δ¹³C of the cellulose by standard mass-spectrometric techniques, a variety of δ¹³C vs. climate functions were examined for each interval. The most useful relationships for at most 7 of the 10 sites were δ¹³C with December temperature or precipitation, because the coefficients were nearly constant from one interval to the next (averaging -0.27%₀ °C⁻¹ for temperature and -0.04%₀ mm⁻¹ for precipitation) and the intercepts differed. Local pollution effects are believed responsible for the three anomalous sites. The separation of these regression lines of different intervals is interpreted as the response of the trees to the changing δ¹³C of atmospheric CO₂ so that δ¹³C(ATM) curves are constructed from this spacing. The shape of the best-fit reconstruction suggests the biosphere has acted as CO₂ source to about 1965 and may now be a net sink. Although these conclusions are limited by certain assumptions and statistical restrictions, evidence from the recent scientific literature tends to support the increasing role of the biosphere as an important carbon sink.

Two catchments of diverse hydrologic character were chosen in which to test the hypothesis that tree-ring indices contain information about runoff that is of pertinent interest to the hydrologist. These two catchments, Bright Angel Creek basin in extreme north-central Arizona and Upper San Francisco River basin in extreme east-central Arizona and west-central New Mexico, are situated in different climatic regions. Although two semiannual maxima, summer and winter, occur in the annual precipitation regime, at Bright Angel Creek the winter maximum is dominant, resulting in large amounts of snow accumulation, and at Upper San Francisco River the summer maximum is dominant. These contrasting precipitation regimes in association with the annual temperature regimes create climatic conditions for which the growth response of the trees, specifically Douglas fir, the species used in the study, and the precipitation-runoff response are greatly different and comparably complex. The complexity of the climate-growth, climate-runoff relationships necessitated the use of multivariate methods in assessing their similarities and dissimilarities. The technique used here is that of principal components, with physical meaning attached to the components by comparison with the results of other statistical approaches such as autocorrelation, cross correlation, autospectra, and cross spectra, and such tree-ring statistics as the coefficient of -mean sensitivity. The orthogonality property of the principal components was used to develop prediction equations with a minimum of variables through use of multiple linear regression. The general approach was to relate ring-width indices to climate and develop a response function, to relate runoff to climatic variables and develop a response function, and finally to develop a prediction equation for predicting runoff from ring-width indices. Prediction equations and 214-year (1753-1966) synthetic runoff series were developed for both basins. The results for Bright Angel Creek basin are not impressive because the best prediction equation accounts for only 51% of the year-to-year variance in the annual runoff. However, this was not wholly unexpected, as it is shown that the nature of the annual runoff regime and the statistical nature of the ring-width index series from this basin are not conducive to maximum hydrologic information. Nevertheless, it is shown that an improved estimate of the mean annual runoff can be gained from the synthetic series. For Upper San Francisco River basin the results were more satisfactory: 72% to 79% of the annual variance in runoff can be accounted for using prediction equations based on ring-width indices, where one equation uses untransformed values of runoff (72%) and the other uses log-transformed values of runoff (79%). The synthetic series shows an improved estimate for the mean annual runoff but also offers the hydrologist a valuable tool in providing a series from which useful information can be obtained that could be valuable in decision-making processes concerning reservoir design and operation.

Introduction: The climate of any region sets the tempo of indigenous life styles and largely dictates the scale and type of economic activity that can be sustained. In Arizona, we are subject to perhaps more climatic restraints than are many other areas, due to the high air temperatures in summer and the rather low yearly rainfall. But, weather is variable; and its sum total -- climate -- is not unchanging either. Thus, in planning the future direction economic activity should take, prospects for changes in climate should be considered. In this paper we attempt to marshal the best evidence available to outline the possibilities for Arizona's future climate. We hope that the information will prove useful to those who must make the difficult decisions that will shape the character of our state in the years to come.

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"Final report to National Park Service, Contract PX 8601-7-0106"

Prior research in the Rhyolite Canyon area of Chiricahua National Monument (Swetnam et. al. 1989) revealed an anomalous 50 year fire-free interval between 1901 and 1851. Disruption of fire spread resulting from flooding and mass soil movement (debris flows) were postulated as potential causes of this long interval. The present study gathered additional evidence of fire and floods in the canyon system. Sampling of flood-scarred trees along stream channels successfully identified several flood events in Rhyolite canyon. Pulses of pine regeneration on debris flow deposits were associated with one of these events. However, no definitive linkage of flood events with changes in fire regime was established. Analysis of new fire scar samples combined with previous results indicated that the area affected by the change in fire regime includes the uplands between Jesse James Canyon and Rhyolite drainage. Source areas for fires prior to 1900 were not identified within the study area indicating that ignitions outside the present monument boundaries may have been important in the past. Evidence from the maximum ages of overstory conifers within Rhyolite Canyon suggests the occurrence of a major disturbance within this drainage prior to 1600.