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M.A. / Please refer to full text to view abstract

In the first essay of this thesis I test long-run monetary neutrality (LRMN) using the longhorizon approach of Fisher and Seater [18]. Using United States' data on M 2 and Net National Product they reject LRMN for the sample 1869-1975. However, I show that this result is not robust to the use of the monetary base instead of M2. Nor is it robust to the use of United Kingdom data instead of United States data. These results are consistent with the interpretation that Fisher and Seater's result is a consequence of the financial crisis of the 1930s causing inside money and output to move together. Using a Monte Carlo study I show that Fisher and Seater's rejection of LRMN can also be accounted for by size distortion in their test statistic. This study also shows that at longer horizons, power is very low. In the second essay I consider the financial crisis of the 1930s in the United States as change in regime. Using a bivariate version of Hamilton's [24] Markov switching model I estimate the probability that the underlying regime was one of financial crisis at each point in time. I argue that there was a shift to the financial crisis regime following the first banking crisis of 1930. The crucial reform in ending the financial crisis appears to have been the introduction of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation in January 1934.1 also find that the time series of probabilities over the state of the financial sector contain marginal explanatory power for output fluctuations in the inter-war period. A problem when testing the null hypothesis of a linear model against the alternative of the Markov switching model is the presence of nuisance parameters. Consequently, the likelihood ratio test statistic does not possess the standard chi-squared distribution. In my third essay I perform a Monte Carlo experiment to explore the small sample properties of the pseudo likelihood ratio test statistic under the non-standard conditions. I find no evidence of size distortion. However, I do find that size adjusted power is very poor in small samples. / Arts, Faculty of / Vancouver School of Economics / Graduate

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The Great Depression has received relatively little attention from South African historians and economists. Most studies of the period concentrate almost exclusively on political aspects, and ignore the economic realities. Little attempt has been made to quantify and analyse the effects of the depression and drought, nor has a proper integration of these economic realities and their impact on politics been attempted. There is perhaps good reason for this. There is such a wealth of material to be digested that the task has been perceived as too daunting for a single researcher. Local or thematic studies have therefore been undertaken. This thesis is essentially a local history study which examines the effects of the Great Depression on the then province of Natal. The depression affected all areas of economic activity in the region; industry, coalmining, and both commercial and subsistence agriculture. Hardly any aspect of life was untouched. It scarred the collective consciousness of an entire generation. Under the twin onslaughts of the depression and drought, the people of Natal turned to the state for assistance. The state turned out to be a poor provider, preferring to devote its efforts to alleviating distress ' among white farmers, while forcing the major burden of relief onto the urban local authorities. Such authorities were obviously reluctant to assist anyone other than their own burgesses. Prevailing racist sentiments ensured that the major economic burden was passed onto those who could least afford to bear it, the African majority. Government policy held that Africans were expendable components of the urban work-force; when the economy shrank they were simply expected to return to their places of origin. During these years the idea that the reserves could accommodate all the "surplus" African workers was finally exploded. Isolated from the centres of power, and under intense pressure from the depression and drought, white Natalians reacted with characteristic jingoism and agitated for the secession of the province from the Union. Black politics, which had reached boiling point prior to the depression, fell into a slump, also occasioned by the prevailing economic woes. Militancy turned into co-operation. / Thesis (Ph.D.)-University of Natal, Durban, 1994.

Primarily, the purpose of the study was to show the immediate effects of the depression on the educational program in the United States. Secondarily, the writer hoped to encourage teachers not only to ward off another similar catastrophe but also to make the present educational program take care of the devastating effects of the past depression as far as possible.