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The effects of exchange rate volatility on South African investmentsMaepa, Magdeline M January 2015 (has links)
This study analysed the short- and long-run interactions between the exchange rate and different types of investments in South Africa from 1970 to 2014. The study focussed on the portfolio theory, the life cycle of investment and the accelerator model of investment, which all found that investment plays an important part in the economic growth and development prospects of a country, thus a healthy investment environment needs to be present in order to attract investment inflows into the country. The conceptualisation of exchange rates focussed on the definitions and types of exchange rates that are in existence, as well as the theories of exchange rate determination which included the purchasing power parity, the interest rate parity, the portfolio balance approach and the Balassa-Samuelson model. These theories are all different but are essential for this study as assumptions made by these theories are relevant to the explanations of exchange rates.
The Vector Autoregressive model (VAR), a multivariate Johansen co-integration approach and Granger causality test were conducted to analyse the interactions between the exchange rate and different types of investments. The short-run analysis found that there was a short-run relationship between the exchange rate and different types of investments in South Africa. However, this short-run interaction were found to be small, thus, not significant enough to cause disruptions to the exchange rate and to the inflow of investments into the country. The long-run analysis found that a there was a long-run relationship between the exchange rate and different types of investments in South Africa. This long-run relationship was also found to be negative. This study concluded that investments have a negative, long-run effect on the exchange rate, suggesting that a fall in the investments would cause an increase in the exchange rate in the long-run.
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The effects of exchange rate volatility on South African investmentsMaepa, Magdeline M January 2015 (has links)
This study analysed the short- and long-run interactions between the exchange rate and different types of investments in South Africa from 1970 to 2014. The study focussed on the portfolio theory, the life cycle of investment and the accelerator model of investment, which all found that investment plays an important part in the economic growth and development prospects of a country, thus a healthy investment environment needs to be present in order to attract investment inflows into the country. The conceptualisation of exchange rates focussed on the definitions and types of exchange rates that are in existence, as well as the theories of exchange rate determination which included the purchasing power parity, the interest rate parity, the portfolio balance approach and the Balassa-Samuelson model. These theories are all different but are essential for this study as assumptions made by these theories are relevant to the explanations of exchange rates.
The Vector Autoregressive model (VAR), a multivariate Johansen co-integration approach and Granger causality test were conducted to analyse the interactions between the exchange rate and different types of investments. The short-run analysis found that there was a short-run relationship between the exchange rate and different types of investments in South Africa. However, this short-run interaction were found to be small, thus, not significant enough to cause disruptions to the exchange rate and to the inflow of investments into the country. The long-run analysis found that a there was a long-run relationship between the exchange rate and different types of investments in South Africa. This long-run relationship was also found to be negative. This study concluded that investments have a negative, long-run effect on the exchange rate, suggesting that a fall in the investments would cause an increase in the exchange rate in the long-run.
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Money supply endogeneity : an empirical investigation of South African data (2000Q1-2011Q4)Schady, Stuart William 29 April 2013 (has links)
This study is about whether the money supply in South Africa under a monetary policy regime of inflation‐targeting is exogenously or endogenously determined. The proposition of an exogenous money supply has been offered by monetarists, where the Central Bank determines the quantity of money supplied to the economy and this has a causal influence on income and credit extension. The endogenous money theory is a post‐Keynesian proposition whereby the money creation is determined by banks adjusting their responses to demands for credit‐money from economic agents. The data analysis is from 2000Q1 to 2010Q4 and entails the use of the variables monetary base (MB), domestic credit extension (DCE), M3, and gross national product (GDP). All variables are logged. The empirical tests conducted start with the Augmented Dickey‐Fuller unit root test to determine the variables order of integration. Johansen cointegration tests are done followed by Vector Error‐Correction Models (VECMs) and Granger causality tests to determine whether there is unidirectional or bidirectional causality between variables over the long and short‐run. Based on the results of the testing it was discovered that over the inflation‐targeting regime money supply in South Africa was endogenously determined. Furthermore, the data best supports the Accommodationist analysis of endogenous money as opposed to that of Structuralism and Liquidity Preference / Adobe Acrobat 9.53 Paper Capture Plug-in
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