Os acidentes causados pelo efeito dominó são dos mais graves ocorridos na indústria química e de processo. Mesmo sendo o potencial destrutivo desses eventos acidentais bastante conhecido, pouca atenção tem sido dada a este problema pela literatura técnica e uma metodologia completa e aprovada para a avaliação quantitativa da contribuição do efeito dominó ao risco industrial ainda não está plenamente desenvolvida. O presente estudo propõe um procedimento sistemático para a avaliação quantitativa do efeito dominó em plantas químicas do ciclo do combustível nuclear. O trabalho é baseado em avanços recentes feitos na modelagem de danos a equipamentos de processo causados por incêndios e explosões devido aos vetores de propagação (radiação de calor, sobrepressão e projeção de fragmentos). Dados disponíveis na literatura técnica e novos modelos de vulnerabilidade deduzidos para diversas categorias de equipamentos de processo foram utilizados no presente trabalho. O procedimento proposto é aplicado a uma área de tancagem típica de uma planta de reconversão situada em um sítio que abriga varias outras instalações do ciclo do combustível nuclear. São analisados os vários eventos iniciadores, seus vetores de propagação, as conseqüências desses eventos e as freqüências associadas ao efeito dominó. / Accidents caused by domino effect are among the most severe accidents in the chemical and process industry. Although the destructive potential of these accidental scenarios is widely known, little attention has been paid to this problem in the technical literature and a complete methodology for quantitative assessment of domino accidents contribution to industrial risk is still lacking. The present study proposed a systematic procedure for the quantitative assessment of the risk caused by domino effect in chemical plants that are part of nuclear fuel cycle plants. This work is based on recent advances in the modeling of fire and explosion damage to process equipment due to different escalation vectors (heat radiation, overpressure and fragment projection). Available data from literature and specific vulnerability models derived for several categories of process equipment had been used in the present work. The proposed procedure is applied to a typical storage area of a reconversion plant situated in a complex that shelters other nuclear fuel cycle facilities. The top-events and escalation vectors are identified, their consequences estimated and credible domino scenarios selected on the basis of their frequencies.

Os acidentes causados pelo efeito dominó são dos mais graves ocorridos na indústria química e de processo. Mesmo sendo o potencial destrutivo desses eventos acidentais bastante conhecido, pouca atenção tem sido dada a este problema pela literatura técnica e uma metodologia completa e aprovada para a avaliação quantitativa da contribuição do efeito dominó ao risco industrial ainda não está plenamente desenvolvida. O presente estudo propõe um procedimento sistemático para a avaliação quantitativa do efeito dominó em plantas químicas do ciclo do combustível nuclear. O trabalho é baseado em avanços recentes feitos na modelagem de danos a equipamentos de processo causados por incêndios e explosões devido aos vetores de propagação (radiação de calor, sobrepressão e projeção de fragmentos). Dados disponíveis na literatura técnica e novos modelos de vulnerabilidade deduzidos para diversas categorias de equipamentos de processo foram utilizados no presente trabalho. O procedimento proposto é aplicado a uma área de tancagem típica de uma planta de reconversão situada em um sítio que abriga varias outras instalações do ciclo do combustível nuclear. São analisados os vários eventos iniciadores, seus vetores de propagação, as conseqüências desses eventos e as freqüências associadas ao efeito dominó. / Accidents caused by domino effect are among the most severe accidents in the chemical and process industry. Although the destructive potential of these accidental scenarios is widely known, little attention has been paid to this problem in the technical literature and a complete methodology for quantitative assessment of domino accidents contribution to industrial risk is still lacking. The present study proposed a systematic procedure for the quantitative assessment of the risk caused by domino effect in chemical plants that are part of nuclear fuel cycle plants. This work is based on recent advances in the modeling of fire and explosion damage to process equipment due to different escalation vectors (heat radiation, overpressure and fragment projection). Available data from literature and specific vulnerability models derived for several categories of process equipment had been used in the present work. The proposed procedure is applied to a typical storage area of a reconversion plant situated in a complex that shelters other nuclear fuel cycle facilities. The top-events and escalation vectors are identified, their consequences estimated and credible domino scenarios selected on the basis of their frequencies.

This paper extends Beviá and Corchón (2013) to a model with both endogenous contestable prize and endogenous relative strength. Such a setting is ideal for the study of intra-organizational rivalries, commonly observed in family, sports, promotion, and duopoly. We find that when the game starts with asymmetric players, the weaker player exerts more effort than the stronger player. As a result, the weaker player partially overcomes the disadvantage of being weak. In this setting, neither domino nor avalanche effect exists.

Yes / In this study, a Fuzzy Bayesian network (FBN) approach was proposed to analyze the domino effects of pool fire in storage tanks. Failure probabilities were calculated using triangular fuzzy numbers, the combined Center of area (CoA)/Sum-Product method, and the BN approach. Consequence modeling, probit equations, and Leaky-Noisy OR (L-NOR) gates were used to analyze the domino effects, and modify conditional probability tables (CPTs). Methanol storage tanks were selected to confirm the practical feasibility of the suggested method. Then the domino probability using bow-tie analysis (BTA), and FBN in the first and second levels was compared, and the Ratio of Variation (RoV) was used for sensitivity analysis. The probability of the domino effect in the first and second levels (FBN) was 0.0071472631 and 0.0090630640, respectively. The results confirm that this method is a suitable tool for analyzing the domino effects and using FBN and L-NOR gate is a good way for assessing the reliability of tanks. / National Petrochemical Company (NPC) of Iran

The title of thesis is Domino effects in critical infrastructure and sets the objective to analyse the interaction between the representatives of individual critical infrastructure sectors. In case of failure in one sector, which would cause a domino effect and subsequently limited functionality or a failure in other sectors, the consequences for the population and the entire affected area would be enormous. This reason, as well as general topicality of this problem led me to focus my thesis on the area of critical infrastructure. Probably the most feared is power failure, which currently occurs very often and sometimes affects areas larger than cities, regions, and even states. Fortunately, all infrastructure representatives are usually best prepared for this kind of failure, and therefore its start and a short-term effect have practically no significant impact on their normal functioning. But for longer exposure exact consequences cannot be estimated because it depends on specific circumstances around individual representatives. The thesis is divided into several parts. The theoretical part, which is further subdivided, includes three chapters concerning critical infrastructure. The chapter setting the fundamental terms, which are used further in the thesis, enables to understand the inclusion of critical infrastructure. The historical development of the critical infrastructure and its position from the point of view of the European Union and also of the Czech Republic is also mentioned in the theoretical part. Finally, there are itemized and characterized individual critical infrastructure sectors. Very important questions dealing witch the protection of the critical infrastructure are discussed at the end of the theoretical part. It is important components involved in it are mentioned there, as well as various procedures supporting the effectivity, according to several publications. The practical part is also divided into chapters. The first part concerns interviews with specialists representing each sector of the critical infrastructure. Each of these representatives was asked about the effect of possible failures in other sectors that may arise in these situations. The question is whether the sectors tend to be influenced and thus to cause a domino effect, which could even result in the collapse of the companies represented by them. These interviews are then written in an adapted form. To see the interview data more easily, they are processed into tables according to the individual sectors of critical infrastructure and then commented.

La plupart des sites industriels abritent des équipements et des réservoirs sous pression. Pour des raisons diverses (suppression, impact mécanique, surchauffe ou autre), ils peuvent être endommagés et même éclater. Cette explosion peut engendrer de nombreux projectiles. Au cours de leur vol, ces derniers peuvent impacter d’autres équipements, tels que des réservoirs sous pression ou d’autres installations sensibles (poste de commande, par exemple). Si une des cibles impactées subit une ruine mécanique, elle peut exploser et générer une nouvelle série de projectiles. Ces projectiles menacent, à leur tour, d’autres installations et ainsi de suite. Ce type d’enchaînement accidentel catastrophique est connu sous le nom d’effet domino ou de suraccident. Dans ce document, l’effet domino pouvant se produire sur des sites industriels est analysé au travers des projections produites par l’accident initial. Une approche probabiliste globale est ainsi développée dans laquelle le calcul de la probabilité d’occurrence du phénomène requiert le passage par quatre étapes : - Analyse des termes sources : les projectiles générés par l’explosion d’un réservoir ont différentes caractéristiques, à savoir le nombre de projectiles, la forme, la masse, la vitesse de départ et les angles de départ. Toutes ces grandeurs sont modélisées par des variables aléatoires. A l’aide du principe du maximum d’entropie et des données existantes, des distributions probabilistes sont développées pour toutes ces variables. On se limite, cependant, au cas de l’explosion d’un réservoir cylindrique ou sphérique. – Analyse de l’impact ou analyse du mouvement : la trajectoire d’un projectile (ou fragment de structure), en fonction de ses caractéristiques de départ, est décrite par une combinaison des effets d’inertie, de gravitation et d’aérodynamique. Une approche simplifiée faisant l’hypothèse de constance des coefficients aérodynamiques permet d’identifier analytiquement la trajectoire du projectile tandis qu’une solution numérique est obtenue par une approche complète où toutes les valeurs de ces coefficients sont prises en compte.Les mouvements de translation et de rotation sont également étudiés. A l’aide de l’analyse complète et des conditions d’impact, la probabilité d’impact est déterminée. L’étude est restreinte à des projectiles en forme de fond de réservoir, fond oblong de réservoir et plaque. Les formes des cibles de l’étude sont restreintes au cas ellipsoïdal, cylindrique et cubique. – Analyse de l’état des cibles impactées : dans un premier temps, des modèles simplifiés d’impact sont utilisés afin d’étudier l’interaction mécanique entre les projectiles et les réservoirs impactés. Un modèle mécanique complet comprenant une loi de comportement élasto-plastique et un modèle de rupture est également proposé. Ce modèle est ensuite implémenté dans un code de calcul sans maillage de type SPH, i.e. Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics. Afin d’estimer la probabilité de rupture des réservoirs impactés, les modèles simplifiés sont mis en œuvre, ce qui permet de réduire le coût de calcul. – Occurrence du sur-accident : selon l’état mécanique résiduel de la cible et son état physique (conditions thermodynamiques, niveau de remplissage, etc.), l’impact de projectiles peut conduire à la poursuite du pnénomène. Ce dernier point n’est pas traité dans le document présenté / Industrial facilities, such as vessels under pressure, might be damaged by explosions caused by an overpressure, an exterior mechanical impact or an overheating for instance. In general, such explosions generate many structural fragments. During their flight, these projectiles may impact other facilities, such as vessels under pressure, in the vicinity. Under given conditions of pressure and mechanical damage, these impacted targets may explode and generate other sets of structural fragments, and so on. This kind of scenario corresponds to the so-called domino effect. In this document, the domino effect caused by projections that may occur in the industrial sites is analyzed with a stochastic framework. For this purpose, a global methodology is developed. The determination of the occurrence probability of this effect requires four steps : - source terms analysis : the structural fragments generated by vessels explosions have different features, i.e. number of fragments, shape, mass, departure velocity and departure angles. These features are considered as random variables. Based on the maximum entropy principle and according to existing data, the probabilistic distributions are developed for each variable. This study focuses on the case of explosions in cylindrical or spherical vessels. – Fragments motion and impact analysis : according to the fragments features at their departure, the fragment trajectory is evaluated under the effects combined from the inertia, the gravitation and the aerodynamics. The simplified approach, under the hypothesis of constant aerodynamic coefficients, allows the analytical description of the trajectory whereas the numerical solutions are obtained for the complete approach when these coefficients vary. The translational as well as rotational movements are also considered. Monte Carlo simulations are performed in order to estimate the probability of impact. Three fragments shapes are considered : end-cap, oblong end-cap and plate. Three main shapes are investigated for the targets : ellipsoidal, cylindrical and cubic vessels. – Analysis of the mechanical behaviour of the impacted targets : simplified models are developed in order to study the mechanical interaction between the fragments and the impacted targets. A complete mechanical model, including elastic-plastic behaviour and a fissure model are also proposed. This model is then implemented in the mesh-free code (Smoothed Particles Hydrodynamics). In order to estimate the rupture probability of the impacted targets, the simplified models are used, reducing therefore the calculation duration. – Domino effect occurrence : according to its residual bearing capacity and its internal physical conditions, the impacted target may give rise to a new sequence of explosions and fragments generation. This last point is not studied in this document