This thesis presents an empirical investigation of the behaviour of financial markets and also the relationship on the real economy. The thesis will focus on Ireland, a small open economy with increased dependence on international developments. Two important aspects of the Irish economy, the term structure of interest rates and impact of exchange rate volatility, will be analysed. The motivation for the analysis of the term structure of interest rates in part I is two fold. Central banks can control very short-term interest rates, but of course the real economy will only really be affected by the long-term interest rate. Therefore the transmission mechanism from monetary policy to the real economy will depend on the relationship between short-term interest rates and long-term interest rates, i.e. the term structure of interest rates. The second important issue is that of market efficiency, and whether asset prices and returns are correctly valued by the market. A number of different interest rate maturities will be used to test the Expectations Hypothesis (EH) of term structure. The EH will also be tested assuming constant and time varying term premia. The results give support for the EH, and fmd no evidence of a time varying term premium. Given the recent extraordinary growth in the share of Irish exports in GDP, the impact of exchange rate volatility on Irish exports is analysed in part 2. The moti vation behind part 2 is to test whether the resulting monetary union will lead to a rise in exports, as a result of the end of exchange rate risk. Using the cointegration-ECM methodology I fmd that in the long-run there is no significant effect on Irish exports to the UK, while there is actually a positive impact on exports to European countries (UK included). I tentatively conclude that in the long-run the involvement in a single European currency will have no impact on trade.

No description available.

No description available.

In this thesis I study two fields of empirical finance: market integration and economic forecasting. The first two chapters focus on studying regional integration of Mexican and U.S. equity markets. In the third chapter, I propose the use of the daily term structure of interest rates to forecast inflation. Each chapter is a free-standing essay that constitutes a contribution to the field of empirical finance and economic forecasting. In Chapter 1, I study the ability of multi-factor asset pricing models to explain the unconditional and conditional cross-section of expected returns in Mexico. Two sets of factors, local and foreign factors, are evaluated consistent with the hypotheses of segmentation and of integration of the international finance literature. Only one variable, the Mexican U.S. exchange rate, appears in the list of both foreign and local factors. Empirical evidence suggests that the foreign factors do a better job explaining the cross-section of returns in Mexico in both the unconditional and conditional versions of the model. This evidence provides some suggestive support for the hypothesis of integration of the Mexican stock exchange to the U.S. market. In Chapter 2, I study further the integration between Mexico and U.S. equity markets. Based on the result from chapter 1, I assume that the Fama and French factors are the mimicking portfolios of the underlying risk factors in both countries. Market integration implies the same prices of risk in both countries. I evaluate the performance of the asset pricing model under the hypothesis of segmentation (country dependent risk rewards) and integration over the 1990-2004 period. The results indicate a higher degree of integration at the end of the sample period. However, the degree of integration exhibits wide swings that are related to both local and global events. At the same time, the limitations that arise in empirical asset pricing methodologies with emerging market data are evident. The data set is short in length, has missing observations, and includes data from thinly traded securities. Finally, Chapter 3, coauthored with John Maheu and Alex Maynard, studies the ability of daily spreads at different maturities to forecast inflation. Many pricing models imply that nominal interest rates contain information on inflation expectations. This has lead to a large empirical literature that investigates the use of interest rates as predictors of future inflation. Most of these focus on the Fisher hypothesis in which the interest rate maturity matches the inflation horizon. In general, forecast improvements have been modest. Rather than use only monthly interest rates that match the maturity of inflation, this chapter advocates using the whole term structure of daily interest rates and their lagged values to forecast monthly inflation. Principle component methods are employed to combine information from interest rates across both the term structure and time series dimensions. Robust forecasting improvements are found as compared to the Fisher hypothesis and autoregressive benchmarks.

The author employs a life story interview approach to examine how one farmer, participating in a local food system, constructs an identity as a food producer that reflects their practices, beliefs, and values. Farmers' markets have grown significantly in the past twenty years. Interest in these local food systems has shifted from the original counter-culture, back to the earth movement of the 1960's-80's to focus on issues of safe, healthy, and tasty food produced using natural methods that emphasize economic and environmental sustainability. Embedded in these issues are the social relationships that shape peoples identities. One person's particular story contributes to the understanding of the motivations and meanings involved in the various roles of individuals participating in farmers' markets. Findings from this study support the argument that people, including the food producer, and the production process are vital components that create a taste experience within a local food system.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Tufts University, 2005. / Chair: Laurent L. Jacque. Submitted to the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 100-114). Access restricted to members of the Tufts University community. Also available via the World Wide Web;

Diss. Göteborg : Göteborgs universitet, 2006.

Diss. Uppsala : Uppsala universitet, 2006.

Diss. Stockholm : Stockholms universitet, 2006.

Diss. (sammanfattning) Göteborg : Göteborgs universitet, 2006. / Härtill 3 uppsatser.