We augment a standard monetary VAR on output growth, inflation and the nominal interest rate with the central bank's inflation target, which we estimate from a New Keynesian DSGE model. Inflation target shocks give rise to a simultaneous increase in inflation and the nominal interest rate in the short run, at no output expense, which stands at the center of an active current debate on the Neo-Fisher effect. In addition, accounting for persistent monetary policy changes reflected in inflation target changes improves identification of a standard temporary nominal interest rate shock in that it strongly alleviates the price puzzle. / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

Piketty's main theoretical prediction is that a small elite will own all wealth if capitalism is left to its own devices. We formulate and calibrate a Post-Keynesian model with an endogenous distribution of wealth between workers and capitalists. The model permits Piketty's Corner solution of all wealth held by capitalists; however, it also shows that interior solutions with a stable, non-zero wealth share of workers, a stable wealth-to-income ratio, and a stable and positive gap between the profit and the growth rate determined by the Cambridge equation. Furthermore, simulations show that the model confirms to Piketty's empirical findings in a transitional phase, in which the wealth share of capitalists rises to over 60%, the wealth-toincome ratio increases, and income inequality rises. Finally, we show that the introduction of a wealth tax as suggested by Piketty could neutralize the rise in wealth concentration. / Series: INEQ Working Paper Series

Aggregate demand is influenced by the functional income distribution of an economy and that of its trading partners. This relationship between income distribution and output is analyzed in a short-run two-country Neo-Kaleckian model. The effects of devaluation and redistribution are discussed in detail. Trade and redistribution within one country interact and output increases or decreases with changes in either depending on the specific distributional and exchange rate movements. The Marshall-Lerner condition is shown to be equivalent to the assumption of expansionary devaluation. If devaluation increases output, national redistribution policy toward wage earners is also more likely to be expansionary. (author's abstract) / Series: Ecological Economic Papers

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New Consensus Models (NCMs) have been criticised by Post-Keynesians (PKs) for a variety of reasons. The paper presents a model that synthesises several of the PK arguments. The model consists of three classes: rentiers, firms and workers. It has a short-run inflation barrier derived from distribution conflict between these classes, which is endogenous in the medium run. Distribution conflict does not only affect inflation but also income shares. On the demand side the income classes have different saving propensities. We apply a Kaleckian investment function with expected sales and internal funds as major determinants. The paper analyses short-run stability and includes medium-run endogeneity channels for the Non-Accelerating-Inflation-Rate-of-Unemployment (NAIRU): persistence mechanisms in the labour market, adaptive wage and profit aspirations, investment in capital stock and cost effects of interest rate changes. The model is used to analyse NCM and PK policy assignments and policy rules. We argue that improved employment without increasing inflation will be possible, if macroeconomic policies are coordinated along the following lines: The central bank targets distribution, wage bargaining parties target inflation and fiscal policies are applied for short- and medium-run real stabilisation purposes. (authors' abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

Economic policy in the EU faces a trilemma of solving three challenges simultaneously - growth, distribution, and the environment. In order to assess policies that address these issues simultaneously, economic models need to account for both sector-sector and sector-environment feedbacks within a single framework.This paper presents a multi-sectoral stock-flow consistent (SFC) macro model where a demand-driven economy consisting of multiple institutional sectors - firms, energy, households, government, and financial - interacts with the environment. The model is calibrated for the EU region and five policy scenarios are evaluated; low consumption, a capital stock damage function, carbon taxes, higher share of renewable energy, and technological shocks to productivity. Policy outcomes are tracked on overall output, unemployment, income and income distributions, energy, and emission levels. Results show that investment in mitigation technologies allows for absolute decoupling and ensures that the above three issues can be solved simultaneously. / Series: WWWforEurope

This paper aims at empirically estimating the demand effects of changes in functional income distribution for Austria. Based on a Post-Kaleckian macro model, this paper estimates the effects of a change in the wage share on the main demand aggregates. The results for the behavioral functions for consumption, investment, prices, exports and imports are compared with the specifications of the WIFO macro model and the IHS macro model. A reduction in the wage share has a restrictive effect on domestic demand as consumption decreases more strongly than investment increases. Because of the strong effects on net exports the overall effects of a decrease in the wage share are expansionary. However the latter effect operates only as far as the fall in the wage share increases competitiveness. As wage shares were also falling in Austria's main trading partners, the effect seems to have been neutralized. (author's abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

Germany has experienced a period of extreme nominal and real wage moderation since the mid 1990s. Contrary to the expectations of liberal economists this has failed to improve Germany's mediocre economic performance. However, Germany is now running substantial current account surpluses. One possible explanation for Germany's disappointing performance is found in Kaleckian theory, which highlights that the domestic demand effect of a decline in the wage share will typically be contractionary, whereas net exports will increase (Blecker 1989). The size of the foreign demand effect will critically depend on the degree of openness of the economy. The paper aims at estimating the demand side of a Bhaduri-Marglin (1990) -type model empirically for Germany. The paper builds on the estimation strategy of Stockhammer, Onaran and Ederer (2007) and Hein and Vogel (2008a, 2008b). The main contribution lies in a careful analysis of the effects of globalization. Since Germany is a large open economy by now it is a particularly interesting case study. (author´s abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

The aim of this paper is to analyze the pattern of speculation-led growth in Turkey. It is dependent on international capital flows, whose continuity becomes more and more critical given the current account deficit, which is estimated to reach 6.1% as a ratio to GDP at the end of 2005. The paper assesses the sustainability of this speculation-led growth in the context of EU enlargement and compares the current state of fragility with former crises in Turkey as well as in East Asia and Latin America. Following a severe financial crisis in 2001, Turkey has entered a new phase of fragile growth led by boom-euphoric expectations. The paper aims at explaining this new phase and the evolution of the risk perceptions of both the creditors as well as the debtors in this "speculation game" based on the post-Keynesian/Minskyan concepts of endogenous expectations and financial fragility. (author's abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

The paper seeks to contribute to the empirical analysis of financial uncertainty and investment from a Post Keynesian perspective. The paper uses the volatility of the exchange rate, the volatility of the stock market index, and the real gold price as indicators for financial uncertainty. An increase in the volatility of a variable is a sufficient, but not a necessary condition for an increase in uncertainty (regarding this variable). The effects of changes in uncertainty on investment are investigated econometrically for the USA, the UK, the Netherlands, Germany, and France. Financial uncertainty has significant negative effects in the USA and the Netherlands. (author´s abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series