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Companies, governments and NGOs are involved in designing and planning the future energy landscape of countries. Engineers and scientists contribute highly to this planning through bringing innovative, efficient and reliable technical solutions. Their know-how is used during the project development, the EPC (Engineering, Procurement and Construction) phase as well as during the Operation and Maintenance stage. However, a successful energy plan depends on many other parameters such as the legal side, the political background of the country, the financing methods, the funding, the environmental aspects and the social acceptance. This Master Thesis Project focuses on the financing side of energy projects, which is a key point to properly manage competitive and viable projects. The strong link between the financing and the political background will be shortly commented throughout the report. In the first part of the report, the focus is put on the Project Finance. All along the report, the theoretical concepts will be illustrated with examples taken from the EDF EN projects, mainly in the Middle East and North African area. The second part deals with the risks associated to power projects. Commercial and political risks are listed and the main mitigation tools are explained. The third part of the report is dedicated to basic business models for energy projects. A simplified economical and financial model is described in detail and run for a wind farm project in a Moroccan-like environment. A sensitivity analysis (fourth part) concludes the report through analyzing: - the impact of technological choices on the internal return on investment will be studied - the impact of the financial parameters on the project structure.

This thesis investigates the causes for the abrupt, universal and virtually unprecedented decline in the total fertility rate in transition Europe. Using evidence from Russia, it tests two competing hypotheses on the fertility decline: the demographic and economic hypotheses. Empirical findings can be summarized as follows: I find insufficient support for the demographic hypothesis-the fertility decline in Russia cannot satisfactorily be explained by a simultaneous shift in values and attitudes towards reproduction and timing of births. In contrast, I provide preliminary cross-regional evidence to support the economic hypothesis-regions with the largest fall in (the proxy for) income and large uncertainty experienced the largest declines in the fertility rates. This result is consistent with Becker's economic model of reproductive behaviour, insofar as it establishes a positive relationship between changes in income and fertility. It however introduces an additional explanatory variable: people's perception of uncertainty. In a preliminary attempt to reconcile the standard economic model with these findings, a simple model of households' reproductive decision is developed. It shows that each household tends to postpone the decision for an incremental child, whenever there is widespread uncertainty. It suggests that, if the individual decision to procrastinate is replicated over a large number of households, it can lead to an aggregate, short-term fall in the fertility rate. Provided that conclusions for the transition European region can be drawn from the Russian evidence, this inquiry shows that fertility has declined in response to a lower income and higher uncertainty: it reflects the deterioration in the quality of life and a loss in welfare. Thus, it is a strong negative indicator of the transition process.

The focus of this thesis is in the development and application of a normative framework for handling both variability and uncertainty in making decisions using economic evaluation. The framework builds on the recent work which takes an intuitive Bayesian approach to handling uncertainty as well as adding a similar approach for the handling of variability. The technique of stratified cost effectiveness analysis is introduced as an innovative, intuitive and theoretically sound basis for consideration of variability with respect to cost effectiveness. The technique requires the identification of patient strata where there are differences between strata but individual strata are relatively homogenous. For handling uncertainty, the normative framework requires a twofold approach. First, the cost effectiveness of therapies within each patient stratum must be assessed using probabilistic analysis. Secondly, techniques for estimation of the expected value of perfect information should be applied to determine an efficient research plan for the disease of interest. For the latter, a new technique for estimating EVPI based on quadrature is described which is both accurate and allows simpler calculation of the expected value of sample information. In addition the unit normal loss integral method previously ignored as a method of estimating EVPPI is shown to be appropriate in specific circumstances. The normative framework is applied to decisions relating to the public funding of the treatment of osteoporosis in the province of Ontario. The optimal limited use criteria would be to fund treatment with alendronate for women aged 75 years and over with previous fracture and 77 years and over with no previous fracture. An efficient research plan would fund a randomised controlled trial comparing etidronate to no therapy with a sample size of 640. Certain other research studies are of lesser value. Subsequent to the analysis contained in this thesis, the province of Ontario revised there limited use criteria to be broadly in line with the conclusions of this analysis. Thus, the application of the framework to this area demonstrates both its feasibility and acceptability. The normative framework developed in this thesis provides an optimal solution for decision makers in terms of handling uncertainty and variability in economic evaluation. Further research refining methods for estimating information value and considering other forms of uncertainty within models will enhance the framework.

Magister Pharmaceuticae - MPharm / Diabetes mellitus places a substantial financial burden on the funder for treatment of this disease. This burden is compounded by the development of diabetes mellitus related complications. The cost of management of diabetes mellitus and its complications in South Africa in a tertiary level hospital is unknown. The objectives of this study were to: (1) develop a method to determine the cost of management of diabetes mellitus and its complications at Groote Schuur hospital, (2) quantify the direct medical costs associated with diabetes mellitus and its complications, and (3) develop models which could predict the cost of management of diabetes mellitus and its complications at Groote Schuur hospital. Patients were conveniently selected from Groote Schuur Hospital. Retrospective data were collected for 20 months from the two data sources available at Groote Schuur hospital, i.e., (1) electronic patient records and (2) patient folders. Two methods of costing were developed, i.e., the combined method (using data from electronic database and patient folders) and the electronic method (using data from the electronic database only). The patient folders were used to complete any missing information from the electronic patient records. The combined method allowed better categorisation of costs compared to the electronic method. With the combined method the costs associated with diabetes mellitus (type I or type II) and diabetes mellitus complications could be categorized as the type of diabetes mellitus complications and the reasons for emergency room visits and hospitalisations were known. However, with the electronic method this categorisation could not be done. Both methods provided a total cost and cost per patient associated with diabetes mellitus and its complications. Data from the combined method were arranged in the following main sub-groups for analysis: (1) type I diabetes mellitus, (2) type II diabetes mellitus, (3) diabetes mellitus, (4) diabetes mellitus with complications (5) diabetes mellitus complications only. The electronic method estimated a total cost which was 6.4% more than the combined method .The electronic method did not require the perusal of patient folders for additional information and hence it is a simplified method that could be used. When comparing the total costs and the average cost per patient for diabetes mellitus and diabetes mellitus with complications, there was no statistically significant difference between the combined method and the electronic method (p= 0.41). The average cost per patient per year for diabetes mellitus and diabetes mellitus with complications was R 1 231.54 and R 3 208.71, respectively. These results show that a patient with diabetes mellitus and its complications cost 2.6 times more to treat than a patient with diabetes mellitus only. The complications of diabetes mellitus contributed 60.7% to the total cost of diabetes mellitus and its complications. The cost of treating diabetes mellitus only and the cost of treating diabetes mellitus complications only were separated into 2 distinct categories. In this case, the cost of treating the complications of diabetes mellitus only was 2 times more than treating diabetes mellitus only. Type I diabetes mellitus cost R 3 011.32 and type II diabetes mellitus cost R 2 649.40 per patient per year. The treatment costs for type I diabetic patients was 13.7% more than that for type II diabetic patients. The decision tree model determined a cost which was 0.23% more than the actual cost obtained by the combined method. Hence, the decision tree method could be used to predict the total cost of diabetes mellitus and its complications. Patients who attended Groote Schuur Hospital also received treatment for their diabetes at community health centres. A method was developed which could predict the cost of management of diabetes mellitus at community health centres. This will allow the calculation of the total cost of diabetes mellitus and its complications from the perspective of the government. Four methods (i.e. combined, electronic, decision tree and prediction of costs at cost at community health centres) were developed in this study.

Coal mining and timber are the two primary industries supporting the people of Southwest Virginia. Coal mining has occurred for more than 100 years, but production has dropped since reaching a peak in 1990. In order to properly plan with remaining coal production a study was conducted to characterize and estimate coal resources. Seam thickness was found to be the parameter which most influenced resource levels. An economic model was developed to determine which portion of the reserves could economically be extracted. It was found that 3.95 billion tons, or 14% of the remaining resource, is economic under current mining conditions. More than 60% of these reserves, however, are in deep seams which require shafts to be constructed prior to initiation of mining. / Ph. D.

The aim of the thesis is to summarize the positive and negative aspects of China's economic model. The author characterizes China's socio-economic model and growth model and discusses the principles of their functioning. The author analyzes the economic development of China in the context of the global economic crisis, which assesses the ability of the Chinese economy to cope with this crisis. She examines the specific responses and actions of the government and central bank, and also evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of China's economic model and the possible threat that could affect the system in the future.

The participation of irrigation districts (IDs) in surface water transfers from agriculture-to-municipal uses is studied by examining IDs’ economic and political behavior, comparing their performance with non-districts (non-IDs), and analyzing the role of economic and demographic heterogeneities in water transfers. Economic modeling, econometric, and analytical techniques are used to investigate these issues. An economic model is developed to investigate how the collective-type institutional structure of IDs in the presence of local interdependencies (between internal water delivery and external water transfers) and increasing returns to scale in the internal water delivery causes reduction in marginal benefit of water transfers and the optimal transfers. The model is also used to investigate how the involvement of the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation in IDs causes more water uses in agriculture availing less for external transfers. The conjunction of multiple uses and exclusion rights without ownership rights in IDs’ water and vote-maximizing political structure of IDs are found to create disincentive for water conservation and transfers. Water transfer responses of IDs and non-IDs are empirically investigated by using a Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation (QMLE) technique. Based on the analysis of 38 years of time series water transfer data, IDs are found to be less responsive in water transfers relative to non-IDs in terms of water right-weighted transfers. It is found that water scarcity, private housing permits, and nonfarm establishments are positively associated with water transfers. The marginal effect of water scarcity on water transfer is stronger for non-IDs than for IDs. Impacts of economic and demographic heterogeneities on water transfer behavior of IDs are investigated using unbalanced panel data econometric techniques. Water right holdings and population in nearby cities of IDs are found to be significantly correlated with water transfer behaviors of IDs. Larger IDs with higher water right holdings and higher population centers in nearby cities are found to be more responsive to water transfers. The findings complement previous studies that commend public attention for policy redesign including institutional changes to motivate IDs to increase their water transfer activity.

Currently 35 per cent of the total water storage available in South African dams has deteriorated in water quality due to excessive nutrient loading. Eutrophication poses a significant threat to freshwater resources in South Africa. Although there are policies in place to deal with this threat, the problem of eutrophication still persists. The main goal of this study was to investigate the existence of tradeoffs between the different economic costs associated with eutrophication in the Vaal River System. This was done with the aim of understanding the water quality management policy implications that follow as a result of the existence of tradeoffs between the different economic costs associated with eutrophication in the Vaal River System. This study contributed to the understanding of the current and historic impact of eutrophication on the Vaal River System. Using Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (sample period 1996 – 2006), similar to De Villiers (2009) and Mostert (2009), this study revealed that the impact of eutrophication on property prices in the study areas was not discernible. This study further confirmed that eutrophication had an economic impact on agriculture and water treatment. Future research is necessary to estimate coefficients in the case of extreme eutrophication level changes. Estimation techniques such as System Wide Dynamic Modelling, which combines traditional data and expert opinion, can capture the impacts of extreme eutrophication level changes. / Dissertation (MCom)--University of Pretoria, 2013. / Economics / unrestricted