The Maketu Estuary is a shallow intertidal estuary (2.3 km2) located in the Bay of Plenty, North Island, New Zealand. The Kaituna River contributes the largest freshwater flow into the estuary through control gates. Lake Rotoiti and indirectly Lake Rotorua supply the base flow to the Kaituna River, with tributaries along the 50 km reach also significantly contributing to the flow. Water quality within the river is affected by elevated nutrients, faecal coliforms, high oxygen demand and algae concentrations derived from the lakes as well as contributions from tributaries and industrial and urban discharge. Through the use of a coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical numerical model ELCOM-CAEDYM, this study aims to examine the nutrient, phytoplankton and hydrodynamics of the Maketu Estuary and lower Kaituna River. Water quality and hydrodynamic measurements were sourced from Environment Bay of Plenty's data archives as well as a number of instrument deployments to collect water velocity, tidal elevation and salinity and temperature measurements during the course of this study. Included in the field work was a survey of the lower river and estuary bathymetry. Model simulations predicted that the maximum residence time in the Maketu Estuary is 1.5 days, occurring in the inner western region. Residence time in the lower river (mouth to 8.5 km upstream) is in the order of hours although some variations were predicted near the river mouth. Growth rates of four phytoplankton groups where assessed over a 15 day period in January 2004. In the Kaituna River ELCOM-CAEDYM predicted that the community growth rates were small with the exception of a slight increase in biomass of the two freshwater groups in a semi-detached river bend. The increase in the loop was correlated with an increase of residence time. In the estuary, marine diatoms showed the highest growth rates in the western region which is expected to relate to retention time and available nutrients. Dinoflagellates showed the smallest variation in predicted growth rates, most likely due to their broad salinity tolerance. The two freshwater species showed a reduction in abundance when mixed with marine water. A principle limiting factor to phytoplankton growth in both the river and estuary is the low residence time. A number of scenarios were simulated in the river and estuary by altering the forcing conditions in the model. A simulation of the increased nutrient load associated with the Rotoiti diversion wall revealed that phytoplankton growth in the river and estuary will not be significantly affected. Because of the close proximity of the control gates to the river mouth, a proportion of water drawn through the structure can be marine. By opening the old river channel, model simulations predicted that a reduction in salinity would be possible, however the outcome of complete freshwater is probably not achievable. Increasing the discharge volume from the river into the estuary was also simulated. The results indicated that increasing the freshwater inflow at Fords Cut would reduce the salinity in the estuary while increasing the net (residual) flow towards the estuary mouth. Increasing the flow would also result in a greater range of salinity in regions of the estuary. Changing the inflow location to the historic Papahikahawai Channel also affected the salinity in the estuary. The most significant effect of an inflow at this location was a reduction of the residual currents in the western region of the estuary.

O reservatório do Lobo, localizado no estado de São Paulo, é um sistema dinâmico no qual se desenvolve um ciclo diurno de estratificação e mistura, de modo similar ao que tem sido observado em outros lagos tropicais. Utilizou-se simulação 3D computacional com os softwares ELCOM (Estuary and Lake Computer Model) acoplado ao CAEDYM (Computacional Aquatic Ecosystem Dynamics Model), ambos desenvolvidos pelo CWR (Center for Water Research) da Universidade da Austrália. Foram realizadas cinco simulações: Piloto Primavera baseada em dados reais da estação no ano primavera no reservatório para o ano de 2007; Primavera-P em que as concentrações de fósforo total, fosfato inorgânico e fosfato total dissolvido foram aumentadas em 100% no reservatório (coluna de água e sedimento) e nos rios tributários; Primavera-V na qual a intensidade dos ventos foi aumentada em 50%; Primavera-T onde a temperatura da água (reservatório e tributários) e do ar foram aumentadas em 10C e, Primavera-X, onde a temperatura da água (reservatório e tributários) e do ar sofreu aumento em 10C, as concentrações de fósforo total, fosfato inorgânico e fosfato total dissolvido foram aumentadas em 100% e a velocidade do vento aumentada em 50%. A concentração de clorofila a foi representada pelos grupos cianobactérias e clorofíceas. O espaço de tempo das simulações representou 90 dias. As clorofíceas apresentaram maior desenvolvimento populacional do que as cianobactérias em todas as simulações. No reservatório, a mistura vertical é ocasionada diariamente pelo vento ou por processos convectivos causados pela perda de calor no corpo de água. A oxigenação do reservatório é maior com a ocorrência de ventos e de grupos fotossintéticos. As concentrações totais de fósforo e nitrogênio apresentaram aumento em todas as simulações. / Lobo reservoir is located in the state of São Paulo and it is a dynamic system where happens a diurnal cycle of mix and stratiphication as seen in other tropical lakes. 3D computational simulation where used. ELCOM (Estuary and Lake Computer Model) and CAEDYM (Computacional Aquatic Ecosystem Dynamics Model) both created by CRW (Center for Water Research) from Australia University to simulate biophysicochemicalls conditions in the reservoir. Five simulations had been carried through: Pilot Spring based in real data for the station spring of the year 2007 in the reservoir; Spring-P where the concentrations of total phosphorus, inorganic phosphate and dissolved total phosphate had been increased in 100% in the reservoir (water column and sediment) and in the tributaries rivers; Spring-V in which the intensity of the winds was increased in 50%; Spring-T where the temperature in the water (reservoir and tributaries) and in the air where increased in 10C and, Simulation Spring-X where the concentrations of total phosphorus, inorganic phosphate and dissolved total phosphate had been increased in 100% in the reservoir (water column and sediment) and in the tributaries rivers, the intensity of the winds was increased in 50% and the temperature in the water (reservoir and tributaries) and in the air where increased in 10C. The concentrations of chorophyll a where represented by the groups: cyanobacterias and chllorophyceas. The time space of the simulations represented 90 days. The chllorophyceas presented bigger populational development in all simulations. In the reservoir, a vertical mix happens every day because of the wind or by convective process caused by the lost of temperature in the water. The oxygenation in the reservoir is bigger whit the occurrence of winds and photosynthetic groups. The total concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus in all simulations presented increasement.

O reservatório do Lobo, localizado no estado de São Paulo, é um sistema dinâmico no qual se desenvolve um ciclo diurno de estratificação e mistura, de modo similar ao que tem sido observado em outros lagos tropicais. Utilizou-se simulação 3D computacional com os softwares ELCOM (Estuary and Lake Computer Model) acoplado ao CAEDYM (Computacional Aquatic Ecosystem Dynamics Model), ambos desenvolvidos pelo CWR (Center for Water Research) da Universidade da Austrália. Foram realizadas cinco simulações: Piloto Primavera baseada em dados reais da estação no ano primavera no reservatório para o ano de 2007; Primavera-P em que as concentrações de fósforo total, fosfato inorgânico e fosfato total dissolvido foram aumentadas em 100% no reservatório (coluna de água e sedimento) e nos rios tributários; Primavera-V na qual a intensidade dos ventos foi aumentada em 50%; Primavera-T onde a temperatura da água (reservatório e tributários) e do ar foram aumentadas em 10C e, Primavera-X, onde a temperatura da água (reservatório e tributários) e do ar sofreu aumento em 10C, as concentrações de fósforo total, fosfato inorgânico e fosfato total dissolvido foram aumentadas em 100% e a velocidade do vento aumentada em 50%. A concentração de clorofila a foi representada pelos grupos cianobactérias e clorofíceas. O espaço de tempo das simulações representou 90 dias. As clorofíceas apresentaram maior desenvolvimento populacional do que as cianobactérias em todas as simulações. No reservatório, a mistura vertical é ocasionada diariamente pelo vento ou por processos convectivos causados pela perda de calor no corpo de água. A oxigenação do reservatório é maior com a ocorrência de ventos e de grupos fotossintéticos. As concentrações totais de fósforo e nitrogênio apresentaram aumento em todas as simulações. / Lobo reservoir is located in the state of São Paulo and it is a dynamic system where happens a diurnal cycle of mix and stratiphication as seen in other tropical lakes. 3D computational simulation where used. ELCOM (Estuary and Lake Computer Model) and CAEDYM (Computacional Aquatic Ecosystem Dynamics Model) both created by CRW (Center for Water Research) from Australia University to simulate biophysicochemicalls conditions in the reservoir. Five simulations had been carried through: Pilot Spring based in real data for the station spring of the year 2007 in the reservoir; Spring-P where the concentrations of total phosphorus, inorganic phosphate and dissolved total phosphate had been increased in 100% in the reservoir (water column and sediment) and in the tributaries rivers; Spring-V in which the intensity of the winds was increased in 50%; Spring-T where the temperature in the water (reservoir and tributaries) and in the air where increased in 10C and, Simulation Spring-X where the concentrations of total phosphorus, inorganic phosphate and dissolved total phosphate had been increased in 100% in the reservoir (water column and sediment) and in the tributaries rivers, the intensity of the winds was increased in 50% and the temperature in the water (reservoir and tributaries) and in the air where increased in 10C. The concentrations of chorophyll a where represented by the groups: cyanobacterias and chllorophyceas. The time space of the simulations represented 90 days. The chllorophyceas presented bigger populational development in all simulations. In the reservoir, a vertical mix happens every day because of the wind or by convective process caused by the lost of temperature in the water. The oxygenation in the reservoir is bigger whit the occurrence of winds and photosynthetic groups. The total concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus in all simulations presented increasement.

Ingeniero Civil / El objetivo principal de este trabajo de título fue el de caracterizar mediante un análisis teórico y modelación numérica, las condiciones de borde aguas abajo de una cuña salina en un estuario y cómo estas condiciones alteran la longitud de la cuña. Para ello se comenzó con una revisión bibliográfica y recopilación de antecedentes para poder determinar las ecuaciones que describen en régimen permanente las alturas de escurrimiento del flujo estratificado a lo largo de un estuario, considerando un sistema simplificado con dimensiones uniformes. Luego se hizo uso del software de modelación ELCOM, el cual previamente fue validado comparando sus resultados con mediciones de sistemas naturales en los cuales existiese una cuña salina. Se dispuso para ello datos en Chile en el estuario del río Lebu y río Toltén. Se procedió a determinar cómo influyen distintas condiciones de borde costeras y la magnitud de éstas. Dentro de estas condiciones se estudió la magnitud de las corrientes oceánicas paralelas a la costa, la presencia de una barra lateral en la desembocadura del río, y la influencia de la velocidad del viento paralelo y perpendicular a la costa. Además, se realizó una modelación para incorporar el efecto de las mareas y analizar su influencia sobre la cuña salina. Como resultados, se plantean las ecuaciones que describen el sistema en régimen permanente considerando una cuña salina presente en un cauce el cual desemboca en un cuerpo de agua salada luego de sufrir un aumento abrupto en su ancho y profundidad. Se establece el supuesto de la existencia de una crisis en esta singularidad, con condiciones supercríticas aguas abajo de ésta, y luego pasar a tener condiciones subcríticas a través de un resalto hidráulico. Este supuesto se comparó con simulaciones numéricas, de lo cual se concluyó que efectivamente existe crisis y luego flujo supercrítico, sin embargo se descarta la presencia de un resalto o flujo subcrítico a menos que exista un control hidráulico aguas abajo que lo imponga. Además se obtienen resultados satisfactorios de la modelación realizada con ELCOM, al compararla con mediciones de sistemas reales. Por ello, con esta herramienta validada, se analizó la influencia del viento, mareas, corrientes oceánicas y angostamientos en la boca del estuario, y cómo éstas afectan la extensión de la cuña salina. Teniendo como resultados, que vientos en el sentido de escurrimiento del río aumentan la extensión de la cuña, mientras que para vientos en sentido opuesto y transversales al río reducen su longitud, que los niveles mínimos de mareas son los que determinan el comportamiento del alcance de la cuña salina, que a mayor velocidad de corrientes paralelas a la costa, menor es el tamaño de la cuña salina y que la longitud de la intrusión se ve disminuida fuertemente al existir un angostamiento en la boca del estuario. Finalmente se desea dejar establecido el modelo para poder ser aplicado a otros sistemas naturales de estuario en presencia de una cuña salina y poder predecir el comportamiento de estos, considerando la influencia de los distintos parámetros que influyen en las características del flujo y tener especial cuidado en los que son más influyentes.

Ingeniero Civil / El embalse Rapel fue construido en 1968 con el propósito de generación eléctrica, en la Región del Libertador General Bernardo O Higgins. Originalmente poseía una profundidad máxima de 85 m, pero actualmente la depositación de sedimentos ha elevado el fondo hasta los 55 m de profundidad. El embalse se forma por la unión de los ríos Cachapoal y Tinguiririca, que aportan el 86% de los caudales afluentes, con el estero Alhue. El embalse inunda una superficie máxima de 95 km2 y tiene una morfología dendrítica similar a una Y . La operación de la central hidroeléctrica está definida económicamente por el Centro de Descarga Económico de Carga (CDEC-SIC). Esto induce una operación que concentra las extracciones en los horarios puntas (operación hydropeaking) cuando la demanda energética es máxima. La central hidroeléctrica tiene una potencia instalada de 360 MW a través de la operación de 5 turbinas con una capacidad máxima de 110 m3s-1 cada una. El objetivo de esta tesis es estudiar los efectos de la operación hydropeaking de la central hidroeléctrica Rapel sobre la hidrodinámica de su embalse, mediante la combinación de mediciones en terreno y simulaciones numéricas llevadas a cabo por el modelo tridimensional Estuary, Lake and Coastal Ocean Model (CWR-ELCOM). La metodología llevada a cabo considera la toma de información en terreno a partir de una cadena de termistores ubicada en las cercanías del muro y el registro de información de velocidad y dirección del viento, temperatura ambiental y humedad relativa, entre otros, partir de una estación meteorológica. La serie asociada a las extracción de caudales para la generación eléctrica se obtiene con una discretización horaria a partir de los registros de energía producida registrados por el CDEC-SIC. Estos datos medidos en terreno se usan en la construcción de un modelo tridimensional del embalse utilizando CWR-ELCOM. El modelo es capaz de recrear la hidrodinámica interna de lagos y embalse, sujeto a los distintos forzantes ambientales y antropogénicas. Dos escenarios de operación fueron analizados: La operación real de la central con hydropeaking y un escenario ficticio en que se suprimen los peaks de descarga. Dos periodos de tiempo distintos fueron analizados, primavera/verano y otoño, lo que permite incluir en el análisis distintas condiciones estacionales y de operación. Se muestra que la ubicación de la termoclina esta determinado tanto por la profundidad de la toma de salida y de la magnitud de las descargas. Un análisis espectral muestra una fuerte correlación entre las extracciones y la excitación de las ondas internas, con un periodo preponderante de 24 h. Más aún, los efectos de la operación hydropeaking están restringidos a una región que se extiende hasta 5 km del muro, donde es posible observar una mayor capacidad de mezcla alrededor de la extracción y una dispersión horizontal menor. Se concluye que la operación hydropeaking tiene un impacto significativo en la hidrodinámica del embalse, lo que indica que la variabilidad de las extracciones durante el día debe ser considerada en los estudios de estos sistemas

Spatial and temporal variations of Utah Lake’s flow field were modeled using the Estuary Lake and Computer Model from the Centre for Water Research (CWR-ELCOM) at the University of Western Australia as part of an effort to increase understanding of the lake’s natural processes in order to restore the lake to its pristine, clear-water state and preserve the habitat of the June sucker, an endangered species. The model was validated using temperature measurements taken by sensors in 2007. The water temperature was a strong function of air temperature and incident short wave radiation, and was influenced to a lesser degree by wind speed, wind direction, relative humidity, and cloud cover. The water currents were affected most strongly by wind speed and wind direction. The model also predicted the free drifting paths of June sucker larvae entering Utah Lake through the Provo and Spanish Fork Rivers between mid-April and July.

Lake Erie has undergone a substantial amount of ecosystem changes over the past century; including cultural eutrophication and several invasions by industrious exotic species. Simple mass balance models for phosphorus have been useful in guiding policy decisions that led to reduced eutrophication, but new, confounding threats to the ecological health of Lake Erie continue to appear and lake managers continue to need useful tools to better understand the lake. As more complex ecological questions are asked to guide future management decisions, more complex ecological models are developed in an effort to provide some clues. The walleye fishery in Lake Erie is economically very important. Walleye recruitment has been highly variable from year to year since the 1990s. Modelling zooplankton is desired as a diagnostic tool for elucidating the quality of habitat – spatially and temporally – that is available to walleye in their vulnerable larval state. ELCOM-CAEDYM (or ELCD) is a 3-dimensional, coupled hydrodynamic and ecological model, which has been successfully applied to Lake Erie to model the nutrients and phytoplankton. The objectives of this study were to better understand the ELCOM-CAEDYM model of Lake Erie through a sensitivity analysis (SA), which has not been done before, and to explicitly simulate zooplankton in this model. An SA is important for determining which of the uncertain parameters have the greatest impact on the output variables. Due to the complexity of the CAEDYM model and the highly interdependent functions and variables modelled, a local SA (comparing changes in output by perturbing parameters one-at-a-time from some baseline configuration) was not desirable. Local SA’s ignore the possibility of a parameter’s effects being correlated to the status of other parameters. However, quantitative global methods are enormously computationally expensive for a complex model. The Lake Erie ELCD model simulates temperature, mixing, nutrient cycles, and phytoplankton dynamics. Phytoplankton are represented by 5 functional groups. With the explicit inclusion of 2 functional groups of zooplankton (copepods and cladocerans), the model uses over 300 function parameters in addition to requiring meteorological data and river inflow characteristics throughout the simulation. The model is set up with a 2-km grid over 40 layers with a 5-minute timestep from April 11 to September 1. This full simulation takes 6 days to complete. A quantitative global method to evaluate all parameters potentially significant to zooplankton would be impossible. The Morris method was selected for its streamlined global sampling procedure combined with the manageable computational demands of a one-at-a-time analysis. This method provides the relative sensitivity of diagnostic outputs to perturbed parameters. Ninety-one parameters were selected to be evaluated in 3680 simulations for the Morris SA. The selection of which parameters to evaluate and their assigned ranges are critical components in any SA. The ranges for parameters that represent a measurable quantity were assessed based on observed values in Lake Erie and other relevant studies. For some parameters, a measured realistic range was unknown. In these cases, values from relevant published models or judgements based on experience with the ELCD-Erie model were used to choose a suitable range. To assess the sensitivity of CAEDYM variables to parameters, DYRESM was substituted for ELCOM to vastly decrease the computation time of a single run. DYRESM is not suitable to model the entire lake due to the large size and irregular shape of the entire lake. Therefore, only the West Basin was modelled and analysed using DYCD. The West Basin was of special interest for a sensitivity analysis of CAEDYM parameters with respect to zooplankton because it is an important area for walleye larval development. DYCD output profiles for temperature, total chlorophyll a (TChla as a surrogate for total phytoplankton concentration) were similar in magnitudes and seasonal dynamics compared to ELCD outputs in deep West Basin stations. The sensitivity of zooplankton, TChla and TP to each parameter was assessed using two single value diagnostics: the simulated seasonal maximum and the simulated day on which peak maximum was reached. Zooplankton were sensitive to almost all of the zooplankton parameters perturbed in the analysis. This may indicate that modelling zooplankton is extremely complex, relying on many dynamic processes, or that evaluated ranges were not constrained well enough. An example of sensitivity to a poorly known parameter is the messy feeding coefficient. Reducing the uncertainty of this parameter would improve the confidence in the zooplankton assimilation submodel. Other parameters that stood out for being especially significant to zooplankton were: the respiration rate, mortality rate, internal phosphorus to carbon ratio, the temperature multiplier and standard temperature for feeding dynamics, and the half saturation constant. Most of these are easily explained as they directly aid or impede growth or they directly affect zooplankton losses. The most significant phytoplankton parameters on TChla and zooplankton outputs were, not surprisingly, the maximum growth rate and the mortality and respiration coefficient. Some particulate matter parameters proved to be important to outputs as well. More than 2500 of the 3680 parameter configurations resulted in unrealistic zooplankton simulations: peak values that did not much exceed initial conditions on the first day of the simulation. The SA exercise pinpointed a few configurations that resulted in reasonable peak zooplankton values and timing; these runs were used as a starting point for calibrating the ELCD model. Parameters were further manually adjusted by quickly checking their impacts on DYCD before applying them to ELCD. Post SA and minor calibration, the modelled zooplankton results were dramatically better than initial modelling attempts prior to the SA. Zooplankton concentrations throughout the lake were close to measured ranges and in some parts of the lake seasonal patterns were also similar to measured patterns. Modelled zooplankton results were least consistent with observations in the south west area of the lake: zooplankton were overestimated in late June-early July and they subsequently crashed and were underestimated in late July-August. It is supposed that this is due to higher grazing pressure from fish larvae in that area of the lake, which is not explicitly modelled. Although it is not anticipated that the south west seasonal zooplankton patterns will improve through parameter calibration (since predator effects are uniformly characterized throughout the lake by the same mortality factor) , further calibration is needed to improve results in the rest of the lake since copepods are generally overestimated and cladocerans generally underestimated. Phytoplankton groups must also be calibrated simultaneously to ensure that they are still operating within reasonable concentrations given more successful zooplankton simulations.

Lake Erie has undergone a substantial amount of ecosystem changes over the past century; including cultural eutrophication and several invasions by industrious exotic species. Simple mass balance models for phosphorus have been useful in guiding policy decisions that led to reduced eutrophication, but new, confounding threats to the ecological health of Lake Erie continue to appear and lake managers continue to need useful tools to better understand the lake. As more complex ecological questions are asked to guide future management decisions, more complex ecological models are developed in an effort to provide some clues. The walleye fishery in Lake Erie is economically very important. Walleye recruitment has been highly variable from year to year since the 1990s. Modelling zooplankton is desired as a diagnostic tool for elucidating the quality of habitat – spatially and temporally – that is available to walleye in their vulnerable larval state. ELCOM-CAEDYM (or ELCD) is a 3-dimensional, coupled hydrodynamic and ecological model, which has been successfully applied to Lake Erie to model the nutrients and phytoplankton. The objectives of this study were to better understand the ELCOM-CAEDYM model of Lake Erie through a sensitivity analysis (SA), which has not been done before, and to explicitly simulate zooplankton in this model. An SA is important for determining which of the uncertain parameters have the greatest impact on the output variables. Due to the complexity of the CAEDYM model and the highly interdependent functions and variables modelled, a local SA (comparing changes in output by perturbing parameters one-at-a-time from some baseline configuration) was not desirable. Local SA’s ignore the possibility of a parameter’s effects being correlated to the status of other parameters. However, quantitative global methods are enormously computationally expensive for a complex model. The Lake Erie ELCD model simulates temperature, mixing, nutrient cycles, and phytoplankton dynamics. Phytoplankton are represented by 5 functional groups. With the explicit inclusion of 2 functional groups of zooplankton (copepods and cladocerans), the model uses over 300 function parameters in addition to requiring meteorological data and river inflow characteristics throughout the simulation. The model is set up with a 2-km grid over 40 layers with a 5-minute timestep from April 11 to September 1. This full simulation takes 6 days to complete. A quantitative global method to evaluate all parameters potentially significant to zooplankton would be impossible. The Morris method was selected for its streamlined global sampling procedure combined with the manageable computational demands of a one-at-a-time analysis. This method provides the relative sensitivity of diagnostic outputs to perturbed parameters. Ninety-one parameters were selected to be evaluated in 3680 simulations for the Morris SA. The selection of which parameters to evaluate and their assigned ranges are critical components in any SA. The ranges for parameters that represent a measurable quantity were assessed based on observed values in Lake Erie and other relevant studies. For some parameters, a measured realistic range was unknown. In these cases, values from relevant published models or judgements based on experience with the ELCD-Erie model were used to choose a suitable range. To assess the sensitivity of CAEDYM variables to parameters, DYRESM was substituted for ELCOM to vastly decrease the computation time of a single run. DYRESM is not suitable to model the entire lake due to the large size and irregular shape of the entire lake. Therefore, only the West Basin was modelled and analysed using DYCD. The West Basin was of special interest for a sensitivity analysis of CAEDYM parameters with respect to zooplankton because it is an important area for walleye larval development. DYCD output profiles for temperature, total chlorophyll a (TChla as a surrogate for total phytoplankton concentration) were similar in magnitudes and seasonal dynamics compared to ELCD outputs in deep West Basin stations. The sensitivity of zooplankton, TChla and TP to each parameter was assessed using two single value diagnostics: the simulated seasonal maximum and the simulated day on which peak maximum was reached. Zooplankton were sensitive to almost all of the zooplankton parameters perturbed in the analysis. This may indicate that modelling zooplankton is extremely complex, relying on many dynamic processes, or that evaluated ranges were not constrained well enough. An example of sensitivity to a poorly known parameter is the messy feeding coefficient. Reducing the uncertainty of this parameter would improve the confidence in the zooplankton assimilation submodel. Other parameters that stood out for being especially significant to zooplankton were: the respiration rate, mortality rate, internal phosphorus to carbon ratio, the temperature multiplier and standard temperature for feeding dynamics, and the half saturation constant. Most of these are easily explained as they directly aid or impede growth or they directly affect zooplankton losses. The most significant phytoplankton parameters on TChla and zooplankton outputs were, not surprisingly, the maximum growth rate and the mortality and respiration coefficient. Some particulate matter parameters proved to be important to outputs as well. More than 2500 of the 3680 parameter configurations resulted in unrealistic zooplankton simulations: peak values that did not much exceed initial conditions on the first day of the simulation. The SA exercise pinpointed a few configurations that resulted in reasonable peak zooplankton values and timing; these runs were used as a starting point for calibrating the ELCD model. Parameters were further manually adjusted by quickly checking their impacts on DYCD before applying them to ELCD. Post SA and minor calibration, the modelled zooplankton results were dramatically better than initial modelling attempts prior to the SA. Zooplankton concentrations throughout the lake were close to measured ranges and in some parts of the lake seasonal patterns were also similar to measured patterns. Modelled zooplankton results were least consistent with observations in the south west area of the lake: zooplankton were overestimated in late June-early July and they subsequently crashed and were underestimated in late July-August. It is supposed that this is due to higher grazing pressure from fish larvae in that area of the lake, which is not explicitly modelled. Although it is not anticipated that the south west seasonal zooplankton patterns will improve through parameter calibration (since predator effects are uniformly characterized throughout the lake by the same mortality factor) , further calibration is needed to improve results in the rest of the lake since copepods are generally overestimated and cladocerans generally underestimated. Phytoplankton groups must also be calibrated simultaneously to ensure that they are still operating within reasonable concentrations given more successful zooplankton simulations.

Furnas Centrais Elétricas S.A. / A ecologia de reservatórios, que são ecossistemas complexos, dinâmicos e artificiais, vem assumindo destaque no Brasil. O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar a viabilidade da aplicação, no reservatório de APM-Manso, de um modelo ecológico tridimensional em estudos sobre a dinâmica fitoplanctônica, simulando a variação temporal do fitoplâncton para cenários distintos de carga de nutrientes. O modelo CAEDYM foi acoplado ao ELCOM e simulação foi realizada em duas etapas: uma hidrodinâmica e outra ecológica. Escolheu-se para as simulações o período de cinco meses, a partir de 1 de setembro de 2005. Foram construídos dois cenários de simulação, o primeiro contendo os valores reais de carga de nutrientes dos principais rios contribuintes medidos em campo, e o segundo com redução na carga nutricional destes rios, simulando um possível processo de substituição de áreas florestadas por áreas de pastagem na bacia do rio Manso. A comunidade fitoplanctônica simulada apresentou rápidas respostas à disponibilidade nutricional do ambiente, e os resultados obtidos corroboraram com diversas teorias sobre as estratégias adaptativas e sobre as dinâmicas algais. Dentre as classes simuladas, Bacillariophyceae e Cryptophyceae se mostraram mais sensíveis às reduções de carga, enquanto Chrolophyceae e Cyanophyceae, apesar de terem suas biomassas reduzidas, sofreram menos com o impacto, sugerindo estarem mais adaptadas à limitação de nutrientes. Os picos chuvosos influenciaram positivamente as taxas de crescimento das Bacillariophyceae apenas no Cenário 1, uma vez que a limitação por nutrientes foi mais decisiva para esta classe no Cenário 2. Observou-se em ambas as simulações uma tendência de substituição na dominância de Cyanophyceae por Chlorophyceae. / The ecology of reservoirs has assumed prominence in Brazil. This study explored the application of a tridimensional ecological modeling on phytoplankton dynamics, in Manso reservoir, simulating the temporal variation of phytoplankton community in two different scenarios of nutrient loading. CAEDYM was coupled to ELCOM, and the simulation was conducted in two stages: one hydrodynamic and other ecological. It was chosen for the simulation the period of five months, from Septemper 1th, 2005. Were constructed two scenarios: the first containing the actual values of nutrient loading of the main river measured in field, and the second with a reduction in nutrient load, simulating a possible replacement process to grazing areas from forested areas in the Manso River basin. The simulation showed rapid responses of phytoplankton to nutritional availability, and the results obtained corroborated with several theories about phytoplankton adaptive strategies and their dynamics. Among the simulated classes, Bacillariophyceae and Cryptophyceae were more sensitive to load reduction, while Chlorophyceae and Cyanophyceae suffered less from the impact, suggesting that they are more adapted to nutrient limitation. Rain positively influenced the growth rates of Bacillariophyceae only in Scenario 1, since the limitation of nutrients was more decisive for this class in Scenario 2. It was observed in both simulations a trend of replacing the dominance of Cyanophyceae with Chlorophyceae.

Furnas Centrais Elétricas S.A. / A ecologia de reservatórios, que são ecossistemas complexos, dinâmicos e artificiais, vem assumindo destaque no Brasil. O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar a viabilidade da aplicação, no reservatório de APM-Manso, de um modelo ecológico tridimensional em estudos sobre a dinâmica fitoplanctônica, simulando a variação temporal do fitoplâncton para cenários distintos de carga de nutrientes. O modelo CAEDYM foi acoplado ao ELCOM e simulação foi realizada em duas etapas: uma hidrodinâmica e outra ecológica. Escolheu-se para as simulações o período de cinco meses, a partir de 1 de setembro de 2005. Foram construídos dois cenários de simulação, o primeiro contendo os valores reais de carga de nutrientes dos principais rios contribuintes medidos em campo, e o segundo com redução na carga nutricional destes rios, simulando um possível processo de substituição de áreas florestadas por áreas de pastagem na bacia do rio Manso. A comunidade fitoplanctônica simulada apresentou rápidas respostas à disponibilidade nutricional do ambiente, e os resultados obtidos corroboraram com diversas teorias sobre as estratégias adaptativas e sobre as dinâmicas algais. Dentre as classes simuladas, Bacillariophyceae e Cryptophyceae se mostraram mais sensíveis às reduções de carga, enquanto Chrolophyceae e Cyanophyceae, apesar de terem suas biomassas reduzidas, sofreram menos com o impacto, sugerindo estarem mais adaptadas à limitação de nutrientes. Os picos chuvosos influenciaram positivamente as taxas de crescimento das Bacillariophyceae apenas no Cenário 1, uma vez que a limitação por nutrientes foi mais decisiva para esta classe no Cenário 2. Observou-se em ambas as simulações uma tendência de substituição na dominância de Cyanophyceae por Chlorophyceae. / The ecology of reservoirs has assumed prominence in Brazil. This study explored the application of a tridimensional ecological modeling on phytoplankton dynamics, in Manso reservoir, simulating the temporal variation of phytoplankton community in two different scenarios of nutrient loading. CAEDYM was coupled to ELCOM, and the simulation was conducted in two stages: one hydrodynamic and other ecological. It was chosen for the simulation the period of five months, from Septemper 1th, 2005. Were constructed two scenarios: the first containing the actual values of nutrient loading of the main river measured in field, and the second with a reduction in nutrient load, simulating a possible replacement process to grazing areas from forested areas in the Manso River basin. The simulation showed rapid responses of phytoplankton to nutritional availability, and the results obtained corroborated with several theories about phytoplankton adaptive strategies and their dynamics. Among the simulated classes, Bacillariophyceae and Cryptophyceae were more sensitive to load reduction, while Chlorophyceae and Cyanophyceae suffered less from the impact, suggesting that they are more adapted to nutrient limitation. Rain positively influenced the growth rates of Bacillariophyceae only in Scenario 1, since the limitation of nutrients was more decisive for this class in Scenario 2. It was observed in both simulations a trend of replacing the dominance of Cyanophyceae with Chlorophyceae.