Made available in DSpace on 2014-12-17T14:23:30Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 JosivanRJ_DISSERT.pdf: 3858170 bytes, checksum: cf220eba177815a3f2e7efdc0fc51b69 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-08-15 / One of the greatest challenges of demography, nowadays, is to obtain estimates of mortality, in a consistent manner, mainly in small areas. The lack of this information, hinders public health actions and leads to impairment of quality of classification of deaths, generating concern on the part of demographers and epidemiologists in obtaining reliable statistics of mortality in the country. In this context, the objective of this work is to obtain estimates of deaths adjustment factors for correction of adult mortality, by States, meso-regions and age groups in the northeastern region, in 2010. The proposal is based on two lines of observation: a demographic one and a statistical one, considering also two areas of coverage in the States of the Northeast region, the meso-regions, as larger areas and counties, as small areas. The methodological principle is to use the General Equation and Balancing demographic method or General Growth Balance to correct the observed deaths, in larger areas (meso-regions) of the states, since they are less prone to breakage of methodological assumptions. In the sequence, it will be applied the statistical empirical Bayesian estimator method, considering as sum of deaths in the meso-regions, the death value corrected by the demographic method, and as reference of observation of smaller area, the observed deaths in small areas (counties). As results of this combination, a smoothing effect on the degree of coverage of deaths is obtained, due to the association with the empirical Bayesian Estimator, and the possibility of evaluating the degree of coverage of deaths by age groups at counties, meso-regions and states levels, with the advantage of estimete adjustment factors, according to the desired level of aggregation. The results grouped by State, point to a significant improvement of the degree of coverage of deaths, according to the combination of the methods with values above 80%. Alagoas (0.88), Bahia (0.90), Cear? (0.90), Maranh?o (0.84), Para?ba (0.88), Pernambuco (0.93), Piau? (0.85), Rio Grande do Norte (0.89) and Sergipe (0.92). Advances in the control of the registry information in the health system, linked to improvements in socioeconomic conditions and urbanization of the counties, in the last decade, provided a better quality of information registry of deaths in small areas / Um dos grandes desafios atuais da demografia ? obter estimativas de mortalidade, de maneira consistente, principalmente em pequenas ?reas. A car?ncia destas informa??es, dificulta a??es de sa?de p?blica e leva ao comprometimento da qualidade de classifica??o de ?bitos, gerando preocupa??o por parte dos dem?grafos e epidemiologistas na obten??o de estat?sticas confi?veis da mortalidade no Pa?s. Neste contexto, o objetivo deste trabalho ? obter estimativas de fatores de ajuste de ?bitos para corre??o da mortalidade adulta, por estados, mesorregi?es e grupos et?rios na regi?o nordeste, em 2010. A proposta est? pautada sobre duas linhas de observa??o: uma demogr?fica e outra estat?stica, considerando tamb?m duas ?reas de abrang?ncia nos estados da regi?o Nordeste, as mesorregi?es como ?reas maiores e os munic?pios como pequenas ?reas. O principio metodol?gico ? usar o m?todo demogr?fico Equa??o Geral e Balanceamento ou General Growth Balance, para corrigir os ?bitos observados, nas ?reas maiores (mesorregi?es) dos estados, por estas serem regi?es menos prop?cias a quebra dos pressupostos metodol?gicos. Em seguida, ser? aplicado o m?todo estat?stico estimador bayesiano emp?rico, considerando como soma dos ?bitos nas mesorregi?es, o valor de ?bito corrigido pelo m?todo demogr?fico e como refer?ncia de observa??o de ?rea menor os ?bitos observados nas pequenas ?reas (munic?pios). Como resultados desta combina??o, um efeito de suaviza??o do grau de cobertura dos ?bitos ? obtido, fruto da associa??o com o estimador bayesiano emp?rico e a possibilidade de avaliar o grau de cobertura de ?bitos por grupos et?rios em n?vel de munic?pios, mesorregi?es e estado, com a vantagem de estimar fatores de ajuste, conforme o n?vel de agrega??o desejado. Os resultados agrupados por estado, apontam para uma melhora significante do grau de cobertura de ?bitos, segundo a combina??o dos m?todos com valores acima de 80%. Alagoas (0,88), Bahia (0,90), Cear? (0,90), Maranh?o (0,84), Para?ba (0,88), Pernambuco (0,93), Piau? (0,85) , Rio Grande do Norte (0,89) e Sergipe (0,92). Os avan?os no controle do registro das informa??es no sistema de sa?de, associado ?s melhorias nas condi??es socioecon?micas e de urbaniza??o dos munic?pios, na ?ltima d?cada, proporcionaram uma melhor qualidade do registro das informa??es de ?bitos nas pequenas ?reas

Submitted by Automa??o e Estat?stica (sst@bczm.ufrn.br) on 2017-06-13T18:59:32Z No. of bitstreams: 1 ThiagoReisDaSilva_TESE.pdf: 3136710 bytes, checksum: db9d2913ecf1cdfe39a570f51f473be0 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Arlan Eloi Leite Silva (eloihistoriador@yahoo.com.br) on 2017-06-14T19:33:05Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 ThiagoReisDaSilva_TESE.pdf: 3136710 bytes, checksum: db9d2913ecf1cdfe39a570f51f473be0 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-06-14T19:33:05Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ThiagoReisDaSilva_TESE.pdf: 3136710 bytes, checksum: db9d2913ecf1cdfe39a570f51f473be0 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-03-11 / Coordena??o de Aperfei?oamento de Pessoal de N?vel Superior (CAPES) / A introdu??o de atividades ou mesmo mat?rias relacionadas ao ensino de programa??o nas escolas tem sido discutida cada vez mais, com entusiasmo nas associa??es e comiss?es que tratam do ensino de Computa??o. No Brasil, a Sociedade Brasileira de Computa??o (SBC) recomenda que no??es de programa??o sejam ensinadas a partir do Ensino B?sico, argumentando que as habilidades associadas, quando constru?das desde cedo, contribuem para o desenvolvimento de racioc?nio l?gico e resolu??o de problemas, o que ajuda a aumentar o n?mero de profissionais da ?rea al?m de trabalhar o despertar vocacional dos jovens. Os jogos digitais s?o elementos que v?m sendo muito utilizados na inser??o do ensino de programa??o nas escolas por oferecerem momentos l?dicos e interativos no processo de aprendizagem. Al?m disso, s?o atrativos ao aluno e aumentam a disposi??o deste para aprender. Assim, este trabalho de doutorado consistiu na realiza??o de um conjunto de estudos experimentais para se investigar diferentes formatos de aulas on-line de ensino de programa??o de jogos digitais para a educa??o b?sica, resultando em um modelo de Tutoria Virtual. Nesse contexto, este trabalho prop?e: (i) criar uma metodologia de ensino de programa??o de jogos digitais on-line que possa ser utilizada em larga escala; (ii) ensinar programa??o de jogos nas escolas atrav?s de formatos de videoaulas; e (iii) a condu??o de estudos emp?ricos que busquem identificar os benef?cios e limita??es da metodologia proposta. Os resultados obtidos em tais estudos trazem evid?ncias que os formatos s?o vi?veis, e que apresentaram um bom n?vel de entendimento pelos alunos. Al?m disso, nossos resultados sugerem que o uso do Formato Tutor Virtual ? promissor para a aquisi??o de habilidades de programa??o de jogos digitais utilizando a ferramenta Construct2, quando os programadores t?m pouca ou nenhuma experi?ncia pr?tica com programa??o. Por fim, a percep??o dos alunos atrav?s do Formato Tutor Virtual foi positiva quando comparada com os outros formatos investigados. / The introduction of activities or even disciplines related to the teaching programming in schools has been increasingly discussed with enthusiasm in associations and commissions that deal with teaching of Computing. In Brazil, the Brazilian Computer Society (SBC) recommends that programming notions should be taught since elementary school. They argue that the associated skills, when assimilated early, contribute to the development of logical reasoning and problem solving, which contributes to increasing number of professionals in the area and also develops the vocational aptitude of teenagers. The digital games are elements that have been often used to introduce teaching programming in the schools by offering playful and interactive moments in the learning process, being attractive to the student and increasing the student's disposal to learn. Thus, this doctoral work consisted in the realization of a set of experimental studies that investigates different formats of online classes of digital games programming for elementary school students, resulting in a model of Virtual Tutoring. In this context, this work proposes: (i) to create a teaching methodology of online digital game programming that can be used on a large scale; (ii) teach game programming in schools using video lectures; and (iii) conduct empirical studies that seeks for evidences of benefits and limitations of the proposed methodology. The results obtained from such studies bring evidences that the formats are feasible and indicate a good level of understanding by the students. In addition, our results suggest that using the Virtual Tutoring format is promising for the development of digital game programming skills when programmers have few or none experience programming practice. Finally, the students' perception using Virtual Tutoring format was positive when compared with the others investigated formats.

Improving the predictability of airline schedules in the National Airspace System (NAS) has been a constant endeavor, particularly as system delays grow with ever-increasing demand. Airline schedules need to be resistant to perturbations in the system including Ground Delay Programs (GDPs) and inclement weather. The strategic search heuristic proposed in this dissertation significantly improves airline schedule reliability by assigning airport departure and arrival slots to each flight in the schedule across a network of airports. This is performed using a multi-objective optimization approach that is primarily based on historical flight and taxi times but also includes certain airline, airport, and FAA priorities. The intent of this algorithm is to produce a more reliable, robust schedule that operates in today's environment as well as tomorrow's 4-Dimensional Trajectory Controlled system as described the FAA's Next Generation ATM system (NextGen). This novel airline schedule optimization approach is implemented using a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm which is capable of incorporating limited airport capacities. The core of the fitness function is an extensive database of historic operating times for flight and ground operations collected over a two year period based on ASDI and BTS data. Empirical distributions based on this data reflect the probability that flights encounter various flight and taxi times. The fitness function also adds the ability to define priorities for certain flights based on aircraft size, flight time, and airline usage. The algorithm is applied to airline schedules for two primary US airports: Chicago O'Hare and Atlanta Hartsfield-Jackson. The effects of this multi-objective schedule optimization are evaluated in a variety of scenarios including periods of high, medium, and low demand. The schedules generated by the optimization algorithm were evaluated using a simple queuing simulation model implemented in AnyLogic. The scenarios were simulated in AnyLogic using two basic setups: (1) using modes of flight and taxi times that reflect highly predictable 4-Dimensional Trajectory Control operations and (2) using full distributions of flight and taxi times reflecting current day operations. The simulation analysis showed significant improvements in reliability as measured by the mean square difference (MSD) of filed versus simulated flight arrival and departure times. Arrivals showed the most consistent improvements of up to 80% in on-time performance (OTP). Departures showed reduced overall improvements, particularly when the optimization was performed without the consideration of airport capacity. The 4-Dimensional Trajectory Control environment more than doubled the on-time performance of departures over the current day, more chaotic scenarios. This research shows that airline schedule reliability can be significantly improved over a network of airports using historical flight and taxi time data. It also provides for a mechanism to prioritize flights based on various airline, airport, and ATC goals. The algorithm is shown to work in today's environment as well as tomorrow's NextGen 4-Dimensional Trajectory Control setup.

No description available.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-12-17T14:08:52Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 JulioCSN_DISSERT.pdf: 2712130 bytes, checksum: ee800f3d5f68d01d1d955c026ae1891b (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-02-07 / Coordena??o de Aperfei?oamento de Pessoal de N?vel Superior / The multiphase flow occurrence in the oil and gas industry is common throughout fluid path, production, transportation and refining. The multiphase flow is defined as flow simultaneously composed of two or more phases with different properties and immiscible. An important computational tool for the design, planning and optimization production systems is multiphase flow simulation in pipelines and porous media, usually made by multiphase flow commercial simulators. The main purpose of the multiphase flow simulators is predicting pressure and temperature at any point at the production system. This work proposes the development of a multiphase flow simulator able to predict the dynamic pressure and temperature gradient in vertical, directional and horizontal wells. The prediction of pressure and temperature profiles was made by numerical integration using marching algorithm with empirical correlations and mechanistic model to predict pressure gradient. The development of this tool involved set of routines implemented through software programming Embarcadero C++ Builder? 2010 version, which allowed the creation of executable file compatible with Microsoft Windows? operating systems. The simulator validation was conduct by computational experiments and comparison the results with the PIPESIM?. In general, the developed simulator achieved excellent results compared with those obtained by PIPESIM and can be used as a tool to assist production systems development / Na ind?stria do petr?leo a ocorr?ncia de escoamento multif?sico ? comum em todo o percurso dos fluidos, durante a produ??o, transporte e refino. O escoamento multif?sico ? definido como o escoamento simult?neo composto por duas ou mais fases com propriedades diferentes e imisc?veis. Uma importante ferramenta computacional para o dimensionamento, planejamento e otimiza??o de sistemas de produ??o ? a simula??o de escoamento multif?sico em dutos e meios porosos, normalmente, feita por simuladores comerciais. O objetivo b?sico desses simuladores ? prever a press?o e temperatura em diferentes pontos do sistema de produ??o. Este trabalho prop?e o desenvolvimento de um simulador de escoamento multif?sico em po?os verticais, direcionais e horizontais, capaz de determinar o gradiente din?mico de press?o e temperatura. A determina??o dos perfis de press?o e de temperatura foi feita por meio de integra??o num?rica utilizando o algoritmo de marcha com correla??es emp?ricas e modelo mecanicista para determinar o gradiente de press?o. O desenvolvimento do simulador envolveu o conjunto de rotinas implementadas atrav?s do software de programa??o Embarcadero C++ Builder? vers?o 2010, que permitiu a cria??o de arquivo execut?vel compat?vel com os sistemas operacionais da Microsoft Windows?. A valida??o do simulador foi conduzida por experimentos computacionais e compara??o dos resultados com o simulador de uso comercial PIPESIM?. De modo geral, o simulador desenvolvido alcan?ou excelentes resultados quando comparado com os obtidos pelo PIPESIM, podendo ser utilizado como ferramenta para auxiliar no desenvolvimento de sistemas de produ??o

Submitted by Automa??o e Estat?stica (sst@bczm.ufrn.br) on 2017-09-04T20:48:36Z No. of bitstreams: 1 AdorilsonBezerraDeAraujo_DISSERT.pdf: 1520413 bytes, checksum: c9a4bb003f34cd8b94eb21679d5d37e0 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Arlan Eloi Leite Silva (eloihistoriador@yahoo.com.br) on 2017-09-06T20:51:39Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 AdorilsonBezerraDeAraujo_DISSERT.pdf: 1520413 bytes, checksum: c9a4bb003f34cd8b94eb21679d5d37e0 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-09-06T20:51:39Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 AdorilsonBezerraDeAraujo_DISSERT.pdf: 1520413 bytes, checksum: c9a4bb003f34cd8b94eb21679d5d37e0 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-02-14 / A plataforma Android ? atualmente a mais popular para o desenvolvimento de aplica??es m?veis, ocupando mais de 80% do mercado de sistemas operacionais para dispositivos m?veis, criando uma demanda por customiza??es de aplica??es para lidar com diferentes dispositivos, tais como, tamanho de tela, poder de processamento e mem?ria dispon?vel, idiomas e necessidades espec?ficas dos usu?rios. J? foram disponibilizadas 23 novas vers?es da plataforma Android desde o seu lan?amento. De forma a permitir a execu??o com sucesso das aplica??es em diferentes dispositivos, ? fundamental oferecer suporte ?s m?ltiplas vers?es da API (Application Programming Interface). Esta disserta??o de mestrado tem como objetivo: analisar, caracterizar e comparar t?cnicas utilizadas por aplica??es Android para oferecer suporte a m?ltiplas vers?es da API. Em especial, o trabalho busca: (i) identificar na literatura quais as t?cnicas indicadas para suporte ?s m?ltiplas vers?es da API Android; (ii) analisar aplica??es reais para quantificar o uso dessas t?cnicas; e (iii) comparar as caracter?sticas e consequ?ncias do uso de tais t?cnicas. Um estudo emp?rico foi conduzido para atingir tal objetivo, no qual foram analisadas 25 aplica??es Android populares. Os resultados do estudo mostram que existem tr?s t?cnicas para prover suporte ?ss m?ltiplas vers?es da API: i) pacote de compatibilidade, variabilidades de granularidade grossa da API que envolvam um conjunto de classes; ii) re-implementa??o de recurso, para situa??es pontuais e granularidade grossa em n?vel de classe ou quando o recurso n?o est? dispon?vel em pacote de compatibilidade; e iii) uso expl?cito da nova API, variabilidades de granularidade fina da API que envolva a chamada de m?todos espec?ficos. Atrav?s da an?lise de 25 aplica??es identificamos que pacote de compatibilidade foi utilizada por 23 aplica??es, re-implementa??o de recurso por 14 e uso expl?cito da nova API por 22. A API de fragmentos cont?m os elementos mais comuns dentre os lan?ados em vers?es superiores da plataforma que s?o usados pelas aplica??es durante sua evolu??o, sendo referenciados por 68% delas. No geral, as aplica??es poderiam aumentar o seu mercado em potencial com adapta??es de, em m?dia, 15 trechos de c?digo, por outro lado, os desenvolvedores das aplica??es t?m se preocupado em evitar c?digo-morto em fun??o da API da plataforma.Na an?lise de 7 aplica??es, 4 delas continham c?digo-morto, mas os quais em geral n?o representam mais do que 0,1% do seu c?digo total. / Android is currently the most popular platformfor the development of mobile applications, representing more than 80% of the operating systems market for mobile devices. This causes demands for application customizations to handle different devices such as screen size, processing power and available memory, languages, and specific user needs. Twenty-three new versions of Android platformhave been released since its first release. In order to enable the successful execution of applications on different devices, it is essential to support multiple versions of the Application Programming Interface (API). This dissertation aims to analyze, characterize and compare techniques used by Android applications to support multiple versions of the API. In particular, the work seeks: (i) to identify the used techniques to support multiple versions of the Android API in the literature; (ii) to analyze real applications to quantify the usage of these techniques; and (iii) to compare the characteristics and consequences of using such techniques. An empirical study, in which 25 popular Android apps were analyzed, was conducted to achieve this goal. The results of the study show that there are three techniques to support multiple versions of the API: i) compatibility package, that adrresses API coarse granularity variabilities involving a set of classes; ii) re-implementation of resource used for specific situations and coarse granularity at class level or when resource is not available in compatibility package; and iii)explicit use of the new API that allows implementing fine grained variabilities of the API that involves calling of specific methods. Through the analysis of 25 applications, we have identified that compatibility package was used by 23 applications, re-implementation of resource was used by 14 applications and the explicit usage of the new API was used by 22 applications. The API fragments contains the most common elements among those released in higher versions of the platformthat are used by applications during their evolution, and it is referenced by 68% of them. In general, applications could increase their potential market with adaptations of, on average, 15 code snippets. On the other hand, application developers have been worried about how avoiding dead code based on platform API. In the analysis of 7 applications, 4 of them contained dead code, but it did not represent more than 0.1% of total code.

Made available in DSpace on 2015-03-03T15:28:31Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 JoaoBC_DISSERT_partes_autorizadas.pdf: 252147 bytes, checksum: e830f27faffa86c9087da28e43e699fd (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010-05-28 / Coordena??o de Aperfei?oamento de Pessoal de N?vel Superior / We considered prediction techniques based on models of accelerated failure time with random e ects for correlated survival data. Besides the bayesian approach through empirical Bayes estimator, we also discussed about the use of a classical predictor, the Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Predictor (EBLUP). In order to illustrate the use of these predictors, we considered applications on a real data set coming from the oil industry. More speci - cally, the data set involves the mean time between failure of petroleum-well equipments of the Bacia Potiguar. The goal of this study is to predict the risk/probability of failure in order to help a preventive maintenance program. The results show that both methods are suitable to predict future failures, providing good decisions in relation to employment and economy of resources for preventive maintenance. / Consideramos t?cnicas de predi??o baseadas em modelos de tempo de falha acelerado com efeito aleat?rio para dados de sobreviv?ncia correlacionados. Al?m do enfoque bayesiano atrav?s do Estimador de Bayes Emp?rico, tamb?m discutimos sobre o uso de um m?todo cl?ssico, o Melhor Preditor Linear N?o Viciado Emp?rico (EBLUP), nessa classe de modelos. Para ilustrar a utilidade desses m?todos, fazemos aplica??es a um conjunto de dados reais envolvendo tempos entre falhas de equipamentos de po?os de petr?leo da Bacia Potiguar. Neste contexto, o objetivo ? predizer os riscos/probabilidades de falha com a finalidade de subsidiar programas de manuten??o preventiva. Os resultados obtidos mostram que ambos os m?todos s?o adequados para prever falhas futuras, proporcionando boas decis?es em rela??o ao emprego e economia de recursos para manuten??o preventiva

One important phase in software development process is to create a design model of the system which follows all the architectural rules. Often the architectural rules are defined by the system architect and the system model is designed by the system designer. The architect defines the rules in a text file where no standard or pattern is followed. Therefore, there is always the risk of violating the architectural rules by the designer. So manual reviews on the system model should be done by the architect to ensure the system model is valid.In order to remove this manual checking which can be erroneous and time consuming ArCon (Architecture Conformance Checker) was developed by Combitech AB. ArCon is a tool which lets the architect define the architectural rules in the format of UML (Unified Modeling Language) models where the elements of the model have different meaning than the standard UML. ArCon can read this model and extract architectural rules from it and check the system model against those rules and then print all the rule violations.ArCon is an open source tool i.e. free for everyone to download and use. Currently, it supports Papyrus as the UML modeling tool. Papyrus is integrated to Eclipse platform and is a general purpose modeling tool. It supports users with all types of UML diagrams and elements.The idea for this thesis work was to implement a new feature for ArCon in order to facilitate the design process for system designers. The feature should provide the system designers only those types of elements which they are permitted to add to a specific fraction of the system model. The list of permitted element types should be extracted from the architecture model where all the architectural rules are defined in advance. This new support in ArCon was named Domain Specific Modeling (DSM) support.To evaluate the effect of DSM support on the system designers performance a few test sessions, called usability tests, were performed. The participants in the test sessions were a representative sample of software designers. After analyzing the data collected from the test sessions, the pros and cons of the new support were discovered. Furthermore, a few new ideas for enhancing DSM support were generated.