Os ensaios não destrutivos servem como uma importante ferramenta para a análise de estruturas de concreto armado. A utilização de ensaios de velocidade de propagação do pulso ultra-sônico (VPU) permite realizar um acompanhamento das características do material ao longo de sua vida útil. Através da análise dos dados obtidos, pode-se averiguar a uniformidade do concreto, controlar a sua qualidade, acompanhar sua deterioração e, através de comparação com corpos de prova de referência e, até mesmo, estimar a resistência do mesmo. No entanto, as técnicas atuais para análise dos resultados coletados são, em grande parte, baseadas na sensibilidade dos profissionais que as aplicam. Para facilitar o controle e inspeção de estruturas de concreto armado é fundamental desenvolver estratégias para tornar esta análise mais simples e precisa. Este trabalho se baseia na hipótese de que a aplicação de Redes Neurais Artificiais (RNAs) pode gerar modelos de relacionamento úteis e acurados entre as características do concreto, sua compacidade e sua resistência à compressão. O intuito é determinar se com o uso de RNAs é possível estabelecer relações não-lineares que permitam estimar a resistência do concreto a partir do conhecimento de algumas propriedades básicas e da verificação da sua compacidade por meio de ensaios de VPU. Os resultados indicam que as RNAs podem ser usadas para gerar métodos numéricos robustos e flexíveis para estimativa da resistência à compressão a partir de dados de VPU. O estudo evidencia uma considerável melhora nos resultados de estimação da resistência quando se empregam modelos neurais, em comparação a modelos estatísticos tradicionais. Para os dados coletados, provenientes de diversas pesquisas, os modelos tradicionais geram estimativas com coeficientes de determinação que não ultrapassam um valor de R² de 0,40. Já as redes neurais conseguem ajustes com R² da ordem de 0,90. Além de contribuir para uma melhor análise de situações em que haja dúvidas sobre a resistência ou homogeneidade de elementos de concreto, o trabalho demonstra que modelos neurais são uma forma eficiente de ordenar e transferir conhecimento não estruturado. Constatou-se, ainda, que, dada sua capacidade de aprendizagem e de generalização do conhecimento adquirido, as RNAs se constituem em um meio rápido e preciso para modelagem de fenômenos complexos. / Nondestructive Testing (NDT) techniques are useful tools for analyzing reinforced concrete (RC) structures. The use of Ultrassonic Pulse Velocity (UPV) measurements enables the monitoring of changes in some critical characteristics of concrete over the service life of a structure. The interpretation of the data collected allows an assessment of concrete uniformity, and can be used to perform quality control, to monitor deterioration and even, by means of comparison against reference samples, to estimate compressive strength. Nonetheless, the current techniques for UPV data analysis are, on a large degree, based on the sensitivity of the professionals who apply these tests. For accurate diagnosis it is necessary to consider the various factors and conditions that can affect the results. To proper control and inspect RC facilities it is essential to develop appropriate strategies to make the task of data interpretation easier and more accurate. This work is based on the notion that using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) is a feasible way to generate workable estimation models correlating concrete characteristics, compacity and compressive strength. The goal is to determine if it is possible to establish models based on non-linear relationships that are capable of estimating with good accuracy the concrete strength based on previous knowledge of some basic material characteristics and UPV measurements. The study shows that this goal is achievable and indicates that neural models perform better than traditional statistical models. For the data collected in this work, provided by various researchers, traditional regression models cannot exceed R² = 0.40, while the use of ANNs allows the creation of models that can reach a determination coefficient R² = 0.90. The results make clear that, besides contributing to better the analysis of situations where there is doubts regarding concrete strength or uniformity, neural models are an efficient way to order and transfer unstructured knowledge. It was shown that, given the learning capacity and its ability to generalize acquired information into mathematical patterns, ANNs are a quick and adequate way to model complex phenomena.

This diploma thesis describes the Bornhuetter-Ferguson method, which is used to calculate the IBNR reserve. It is divided into deterministic and stochastic parts. The deterministic part deals with the derivation of development pattern and ultimate loss amount, which are needed to calculate the reserve. The stochastic part deals with reserve estimation error and prediction error. The calculation results of the reserve estimate and its error are compared with the results of the chain ladder method. The last chapter deals with the problematic areas of the described method.

As emissões de poluentes atmosféricos decorrentes de veículos automotores representam um grave problema ambiental. O modo de operação do veículo influencia diretamente a quantidade de poluentes emitidos. Quando um veículo inicia sua operação com motor frio, efeito denominado de partida a frio, a quantidade de poluentes emitidos torna-se consideravelmente maior em comparação às condições estabilizadas de temperatura do motor. O efeito da partida a frio é bastante representativo em viagens de curta duração, como é o caso dos deslocamentos urbanos. Este estudo propõe um método para a determinação e distribuição espacial do adicional de emissões de poluentes em partida a frio. Este método foi aplicado em Porto Alegre, utilizando informações de tráfego e da frota local coletados na pesquisa de entrevistas domiciliares, realizada no ano de 2003. Os fatores de emissão utilizados embasaram-se em um estudo realizado com veículos brasileiros. Os resultados da aplicação do método indicaram que a maior parte das partidas a frio ocorre na região central de Porto Alegre e suas adjacências, sendo maior no período matinal. Observou-se também que os maiores responsáveis pelo adicional por partida a frio são os veículos equipados com conversores catalíticos e injeção eletrônica de combustível. Entretanto, os veículos mais antigos, sem conversor catalítico e equipados com carburador, são os maiores responsáveis pela emissão total, adicional por partida a frio e emissão estabilizada de CO e HC nos períodos analisados. Através do método proposto neste estudo foi possível identificar áreas críticas que necessitam de ações de controle de emissões em partida a frio. Os resultados deste estudo podem subsidiar o planejamento e gerenciamento das condições ambientais provocadas pelas emissões veiculares em áreas urbanas. / Atmospheric pollution from vehicle emissions is a serious environmental problem. The vehicle operation mode influences directly in the amount of emitted pollutants. When a vehicle begins its operation with the cold engine, called as cold start effect, the amount of emitted pollutant becomes considerably higher than when in stabilized conditions of engine’s temperature. Cold start effect are very representative in short travels, such as urban trips. This study proposes a method to estimate the amount and spacial distribution of the additional cold start pollutant emissions. This method was applied to Porto Alegre, Brazil, using traffic and local fleet data from a household travel survey of 2003. Emissions factors were based on a study of Brazilian fleet. The results from the method application showed that cold start emissions in Porto Alegre are higher in the morning peak and most of the cold start emissions are concentrated in the town center and its adjacencies. The results also showed that the catalyst fuel injection vehicles are the main responsible for the additional cold start emissions. However, old vehicles, without catalyst and equipped with carburetor, are the main responsible for the total, cold start and running emissions, CO and HC emissions in both analyses periods. Through the proposed method, it was possible to identify critical areas that need control actions of cold start emissions. The results from this study can assist planning and management of the environmental conditions deriving from vehicular emissions in urban areas.

This work aims to describe the method of recursive estimation of time series with conditional volatility, used mainly in finance. First, there are described the basic types of models with conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and princi- ples of state-space modeling demonstrated by means of linear models AR and ARMA. Subsequently, there are derived algorithms for recursive estimation of parameters of the GARCH model and its possible modifications including the ones for which recursive estimation formulas have not been yet derived in lit- erature. These algorithms are tested in a simulation study, where their appli- cability in practice is investigated. Finally, we apply these algorithms to real high-frequency data from the stock exchange. The practical part is done us- ing the software Mathematica 11.3. The work also serves as an overview of the current state of online modeling of financial time series. 1

Broadening the term augmented testing to include a combination of multiple measures to assess examinee performance on a single construct, the issues of IRT item parameter and proficiency estimates were investigated. The intent of this dissertation is to determine if different IRT calibration designs result in differences to item and proficiency parameter estimates and to understand the nature of those differences. Examinees were sampled from a testing program in which each examinee was administered three mathematics assessments measuring a broad mathematics domain at the high school level. This sample of examinees was used to perform a real data analysis to investigate the item and proficiency estimates. A simulation study was also conducted based upon the real data. The factors investigated for the real data study included three IRT calibration designs and two IRT models. The calibration designs included: separately calibrating each assessment, calibrating all assessments in one joint calibration, and separately calibrating items in three distinct content areas. Joint calibration refers to the use of IRT methodology to calibrate two or more tests, which have been administered to a single group, together so as to place all of the items on a common scale. The two IRT models were the one- and three-parameter logistic model. Also investigated were five proficiency estimators: maximum likelihood estimates, expected a posteriori, maximum a posteriori, summed-score EAP, and test characteristic curve estimates. The simulation study included the same calibration designs and IRT models but the data were simulated with varying levels of correlations among the proficiencies to determine the affect upon the item parameter estimates. The main findings indicate that item parameter and proficiency estimates are affected by the IRT calibration design. The discrimination parameter estimates of the three-parameter model were larger when calibrated under the joint calibration design for one assessment but not for the other two. Noting that equal item discrimination is an assumption of the 1-PL model, this finding raises questions as to the degree of model fit when the 1-PL model is used. Items on a second assessment had lower difficulty parameters in the joint calibration design while the item parameter estimates of the other two assessments were higher. Differences in proficiency estimates between calibration designs were also discovered, which were found to result in examinees being inconsistently classified into performance categories. Differences were observed in regards to the choice of IRT model. Finally, as the level of correlation among proficiencies increased in the simulation data, the differences observed in the item parameter estimates were decreased. Based upon the findings, IRT item parameter estimates resulting from differing calibrations designs should not be used interchangeably. Practitioners who use item pools should base the pool refreshment calibration design upon the one used to originally create the pool. Limitations to this study include the use of a single dataset consisting of high school examinees in only one subject area, thus the degree of generalization regarding research findings to other content areas of grade levels should be made with caution.

A picture of a scene is a 2-dimensional representation of a 3-dimensional world. In the process of projecting the scene onto the 2-dimensional image plane, some of the information about the 3-dimensional scene is inevitably lost. Given a series of images of a scene, typically taken by a video camera, it is sometimes possible to recover some of this lost 3-dimensional information. Within the computer vision literature this process is described as that of recovering structure from motion. If some of the information about the internal geometry of the camera is unknown, then the problem is described as that of recovering structure from motion in the uncalibrated case. It is this uncalibrated version of the problem that is the concern of this thesis. Optical flow represents the movement of points across the image plane over time. Previous work in the area of structure from motion has given rise to a so-called differential epipolar equation which describes the relationship between optical flow and the motion and internal parameters of the camera. This equation allows the calibration of a camera undergoing unknown motion and having an unknown, and possibly varying, focal length. Obtaining accurate estimates of the camera motion and internal parameters in the presence of noisy optical flow data is critical to the structure recovery process. We present and compare a variety of methods for estimating the coefficients of the differential epipolar equation. The goal of this process is to derive a tractable total least squares estimator of structure from motion robust to the presence of inaccuracies in the data. Methods are also presented for rectifying optical flow to a particular motion estimates, eliminating outliers from the data, and calculating the relative motion of a camera over an image sequence. This thesis thus explores the application of numerical and statistical techniques for the estimation of structure from motion in the uncalibrated case. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--Mathematical and Computer Sciences (Department of Computer Science), 2000.

Carcharias taurus is listed as Critically Endangered along the east coast of Australia and there is concern about their status globally. The use of traditional tag–recapture methods to monitor the east coast C. taurus population have been discontinued due to tag–biofouling and injuries that relate to tag attachment. In the current study, captive and wild C. taurus were used to assess whether spots present on their flanks were suitable natural tags for individual shark recognition. Photographic images of seven captive sharks taken at monthly intervals for 13 months and at three years after the start of the study indicated that their spot number, position and relative size did not change over this period. Similarly, eighty–nine wild sharks photographically re–identified at least 23 months after their initial identification (and in one case after 14 years) confirmed long–term spot–pattern retention. Photographic recaptures of individual C. taurus provided information about their temporal and spatial distribution and movement patterns along the Australian east coast in relation to maturity, sex and reproductive condition. A total of 930 sharks were photo–identified between 2004 and 2008 at 23 aggregation sites between Wolf Rock and Montague Island. Of these, 479 were females (271 mature, 208 immature) and 452 were males (288 mature, 60 sub–adults, 104 juveniles). The distribution of pregnant C. taurus was seasonally and temporally distinct from all other sharks. Visibly pregnant C. taurus were recorded at Wolf Rock (the most northern site) from February until October, although many sharks left during July. Pregnant C. taurus were also observed at North Moreton Island, Flat Rock and Fish Rock between June and November. Resting (mature, non–gravid) females and mature males were mostly observed at mid–southern sites from December to June, with northern counts increasing from June to November. The majority of immature sharks were recorded at mid–southern sites. Of 930 sharks identified between 2004 and 2008, 149 were identified at more than one site. On average, mature females moved 338 km (SD ± 465), mature males 340 km (SD ± 299), immature females 147 km (SD ± 98), sub–adult males 185 km (SD ± 216), and juvenile males 271 km (SD ± 237). The maximum rate of movement per day was 18.5 km for a mature female shark, 20.7 km for a mature male, 4.3 km for an immature female, 86 km for a sub–adult male and 4 km for a juvenile male. Mature males and mature non–pregnant females tended to move north from mid–winter and mate in late spring/early summer in warmer waters. From about mid–winter, pregnant females began to move from the warmer waters of their gestation areas to cooler southern waters to pup (probably from late spring to mid–summer). The movement patterns of immature sharks varied temporally, and were more limited spatially. Underwater censuses, photo–identification and acoustic tracking of individual C. taurus were used to investigate their reproductive periodicity, localised movements and behavioural segregation at Wolf Rock – the most northerly aggregation site on the east Australian seaboard. A biennial reproductive cycle was indicated for 18 of 28 females for which re–identifications spanned at least two mating and/or pregnancy events. Nine of the 28 sharks appeared to exhibit a triennial reproductive cycle. Male C. taurus were observed between July and January, but were absent between February and April. Scuba divers reported seeing some mating scars on individuals from mid–October, however fresh mating scars were predominately observed on photographs of individual C. taurus taken in November and December. Four acoustically–tagged mature female sharks remained within 500 m of the Wolf Rock aggregation site within a marine sanctuary zone for 78 – 90 % of the 11–15 day study period. A minimum population estimate of 930 individuals is provided from all sharks identified between 2004 and 2008. In addition, a Jolly–Seber (open model design) mark–recapture analysis on data obtained during four scheduled photo–identification surveys (conducted between July 2006 and February 2008 at 25 aggregation sites along the east coast of Australia) was used to estimate the size of this population. A maximum of 272 sharks (143 females and 129 males) were identified during any scheduled survey period. Model averaging across the highest rated JS models (Popan data formulation) resulted in an estimate of 756 males (95% CI = 590 – 922) and 1185 females (95% CI = 901 – 1469). The mark–recapture abundance estimate is considered preliminary and requires further model development to incorporate the heterogeneity in distribution and migration patterns within the C. taurus population. The occurrence of retained fishing gear and gear–related jaw injuries were quantified from the four scheduled photo–identification surveys along the east coast of Australia. A total of 673 sharks were identified with 119 occurrences of retained fishing gear or jaw injury recorded from 113 individual sharks. For sharks that were known by spot–patterns on both flanks, 29 % of females and 52 % of males were seen with retained fishing gear or a gear–related jaw injury. The largest numbers of identified sharks (222) during the surveys were seen at Fish Rock (off the New South Wales coast): 48 % of all sharks identified with retained fishing gear were first identified at this site. Fish Rock is a designated critical habitat for C. taurus, but most forms of line fishing, except fishing while anchored or moored with bait and/or wire trace line are permitted. Results from the surveys clearly demonstrated that C. taurus is susceptible to a large variety of fishing gear and fishing methods. Current protection measures for C. taurus appear insufficient at this site, particularly as large aggregations that include immature and mature sharks occur consistently throughout the year.

The before-after study is still the most popular method used by traffic engineers and transportation safety analysts for evaluating the effects of an intervention. However, this kind of study may be plagued by important methodological limitations, which could significantly alter the study outcome. They include the regression-to-the-mean (RTM) and site-selection effects. So far, most of the research on these biases has focused on the RTM. Hence, the primary objective of this study consists of presenting a method that can reduce the site-selection bias when an entry criterion is used in before-after studies for continuous (e.g. speed, reaction times, etc.) and count data (e.g. number of crashes, number of fatalities, etc.). The proposed method documented in this research provides a way to adjust the Naive estimator by using the sample data and without relying on the data collected from the control group, since finding enough appropriate sites for the control group is much harder in traffic-safety analyses. In this study, the proposed method, a.k.a. Adjusted method, was compared to commonly used methods in before-after studies. The study results showed that among all methods evaluated, the Naive is the most significantly affected by the selection bias. Using the CG, the ANCOVA, or the EB method based on a control group (EBCG) method can eliminate the site-selection bias, as long as the characteristics of the control group are exactly the same as those for the treatment group. However, control group data that have same characteristics based on a truncated distribution or sample may not be available in practice. Moreover, site-selection bias generated by using a dissimilar control group might be even higher than with using the Naive method. The Adjusted method can partially eliminate site-selection bias even when biased estimators of the mean, variance, and correlation coefficient of a truncated normal distribution are used or are not known with certainty. In addition, three actual datasets were used to evaluate the accuracy of the Adjusted method for estimating site-selection biases for various types of data that have different mean and sample-size values.

A linear differential operator L is called weakly hypoelliptic if any local solution u of Lu = 0 is smooth. We allow for systems, i.e. the coefficients may be matrices, not necessarily of square size. This is a huge class of important operators which covers all elliptic, overdetermined elliptic, subelliptic and parabolic equations. We extend several classical theorems from complex analysis to solutions of any weakly hypoelliptic equation: the Montel theorem providing convergent subsequences, the Vitali theorem ensuring convergence of a given sequence, and Riemann's first removable singularity theorem. In the case of constant coefficients we show that Liouville's theorem holds, any bounded solution must be constant and any L^p solution must vanish.

This thesis applies the econometric projection approach to forecast the numbers of general practitioners (GPs) in Saskatchewan for the next 15 years at both provincial and the Regional Health Authorities (RHAs) levels. The projection results will provide the estimated level of GPs up to 2021 for policy makers to adjust their decision on health professionals planning.<p> Three hypothesized scenarios, which include the changes in population proportion, average income for GPs and a combination of both, are used for projections based on the regression results. The projections suggest a 4.34% expected annual increase of GPs if the proportions of children and seniors increase or decrease according to prediction for the next 15 years for Saskatchewan. At the RHAs level, 4.5% to 10.7% expected annual rate of increase for numbers of GPs is projected for the northern RHAs and Saskatoon RHA, while the expected increase for other urban RHAs will experience less than 1.5% increases.<p> The predicted changes in average income for GPs show insignificant effect for the expected changes in numbers of GPs. However, the second and third scenarios are not extended to the RHAs level due to lack of information, which requires additional data for both Saskatchewan physicians and population for further projection analysis.