Recent advances in technology have led to an explosion in data collection over time rather than in a single snapshot. For example, microarray technology allows us to measure gene expression levels in different conditions over time. Such temporal data grants the opportunity for data miners to develop algorithms to address domain-related problems, e.g. a time series of several different classes can be created, by observing various patient attributes over time and the task is to classify unseen patient based on his temporal observations. In time-sensitive applications such as medical applications, some certain aspects have to be considered besides providing accurate classification. The first aspect is providing early classification. Accurate and timely diagnosis is essential for allowing physicians to design appropriate therapeutic strategies at early stages of diseases, when therapies are usually the most effective and the least costly. We propose a probabilistic hybrid method that allows for early, accurate, and patient-specific classification of multivariate time series that, by training on a full time series, offer classification at a very early time point during the diagnosis phase, while staying competitive in terms of accuracy with other models that use full time series both in training and testing. The method has attained very promising results and outperformed the baseline models on a dataset of response to drug therapy in Multiple Sclerosis patients and on a sepsis therapy dataset. Although attaining accurate classification is the primary goal of data mining task, in medical applications it is important to attain decisions that are not only accurate and obtained early, but can also be easily interpreted which is the second aspect of medical applications. Physicians tend to prefer interpretable methods rather than black-box methods. For that purpose, we propose interpretable methods for early classification by extracting interpretable patterns from the raw time series to help physicians in providing early diagnosis and to gain insights into and be convinced about the classification results. The proposed methods have been shown to be more accurate and provided classifications earlier than three alternative state-of-the-art methods when evaluated on human viral infection datasets and a larger myocardial infarction dataset. The third aspect has to be considered for medical applications is the need for predictions to be accompanied by a measure which allows physicians to judge about the uncertainty or belief in the prediction. Knowing the uncertainty associated with a given prediction is especially important in clinical diagnosis where data mining methods assist clinical experts in making decisions and optimizing therapy. We propose an effective method to provide uncertainty estimate for the proposed interpretable early classification methods. The method was evaluated on four challenging medical applications by characterizing decrease in uncertainty of prediction. We showed that our proposed method meets the requirements of uncertainty estimates (the proposed uncertainty measure takes values in the range [0,1] and propagates over time). To the best of our knowledge, this PhD thesis will have a great impact on the link between data mining community and medical domain experts and would give physicians sufficient confidence to put the proposed methods into real practice. / Computer and Information Science

Dans de nombreux domaines dans lesquels les mesures ou les données sont disponibles séquentiellement, il est important de savoir décider le plus tôt possible, même si c’est à partir d’informations encore incomplètes. C’est le cas par exemple en milieu hospitalier où l’apprentissage de règles de décision peut se faire à partir de cas complètement documentés, mais où, devant un nouveau patient, il peut être crucial de prendre une dé- cision très rapidement. Dans ce type de contextes, un compromis doit être optimisé entre la possibilité d’arriver à une meilleure décision en attendant des mesures supplé- mentaires, et le coût croissant associé à chaque nouvelle mesure. Nous considérons dans cette thèse un nouveau cadre général de classification précoce de séries temporelles où le coût d’attente avant de prendre une décision est explicitement pris en compte lors de l’optimisation du compromis entre la qualité et la précocité de prédictions. Nous proposons donc un critère formel qui exprime ce compromis, ainsi que deux approches différentes pour le résoudre. Ces approches sont intéressantes et apportent deux propriétés désirables pour décider en ligne : (i) elles estiment en ligne l’instant optimal dans le futur où une minimisation du critère peut être prévue. Elles vont donc au-delà des approches classiques qui décident d’une façon myope, à chaque instant, d’émettre une prédiction ou d’attendre plus d’information, (ii) ces approches sont adaptatives car elles prennent en compte les propriétés de la série temporelle en entrée pour estimer l’instant optimal pour la classifier. Des expériences extensives sur des données contrôlées et sur des données réelles montrent l’intérêt de ces approches pour fournir des prédictions précoces, fiables, adaptatives et non myopes, ce qui est indispensable dans de nombreuses applications. / Early classification of time series is becoming increasingly a valuable task for assisting in decision making process in many application domains. In this setting, information can be gained by waiting for more evidences to arrive, thus helping to make better decisions that incur lower misclassification costs, but, meanwhile, the cost associated with delaying the decision generally increases, rendering the decision less attractive. Making early predictions provided that are accurate requires then to solve an optimization problem combining two types of competing costs. This thesis introduces a new general framework for time series early classification problem. Unlike classical approaches that implicitly assume that misclassification errors are cost equally and the cost of delaying the decision is constant over time, we cast the the problem as a costsensitive online decision making problem when delaying the decision is costly. We then propose a new formal criterion, along with two approaches that estimate the optimal decision time for a new incoming yet incomplete time series. In particular, they capture the evolutions of typical complete time series in the training set thanks to a segmentation technique that forms meaningful groups, and leverage these complete information to estimate the costs for all future time steps where data points still missing. These approaches are interesting in two ways: (i) they estimate, online, the earliest time in the future where a minimization of the criterion can be expected. They thus go beyond the classical approaches that myopically decide at each time step whether to make a decision or to postpone the call one more time step, and (ii) they are adaptive, in that the properties of the incoming time series are taken into account to decide when is the optimal time to output a prediction. Results of extensive experiments on synthetic and real data sets show that both approaches successfully meet the behaviors expected from early classification systems.

L’internet des objets est au coeur desprocessus industriels intelligents grâce à lacapacité de détection d’évènements à partir dedonnées de capteurs. Cependant, beaucoup resteà faire pour tirer le meilleur parti de cettetechnologie récente et la faire passer à l’échelle.Cette thèse vise à combler le gap entre les fluxmassifs de données collectées par les capteurs etleur exploitation effective dans la gestion desprocessus métier. Elle propose une approcheglobale qui combine le traitement de flux dedonnées, l’apprentissage supervisé et/oul’utilisation de règles sur des évènementscomplexes permettant de prédire (et doncéviter) des évènements indésirables, et enfin lagestion des processus métier étendue par cesrègles complexes.Les contributions scientifiques de cette thèse sesituent dans différents domaines : les processusmétiers plus intelligents et dynamiques; letraitement d’évènements complexes automatisépar l’apprentissage de règles; et enfin et surtout,dans le domaine de la fouille de données deséries temporelles multivariéespar la prédiction précoce de risques.L’application cible de cette thèse est le transportinstrumenté d’oeuvres d’art / Internet of things is at the core ofsmart industrial processes thanks to its capacityof event detection from data conveyed bysensors. However, much remains to be done tomake the most out of this recent technologyand make it scale. This thesis aims at filling thegap between the massive data flow collected bysensors and their effective exploitation inbusiness process management. It proposes aglobal approach, which combines stream dataprocessing, supervised learning and/or use ofcomplex event processing rules allowing topredict (and thereby avoid) undesirable events,and finally business process managementextended to these complex rules. The scientificcontributions of this thesis lie in several topics:making the business process more intelligentand more dynamic; automation of complexevent processing by learning the rules; and lastand not least, in datamining for multivariatetime series by early prediction of risks. Thetarget application of this thesis is theinstrumented transportation of artworks.