This thesis examines disaster policy at the local government level. Specifically, earthquake preparedness planning in three British Columbia school districts is examined. The disaster policy cycle and seismic risk in British Columbia are also addressed. Prior to the late 1980's, the Vancouver, Coquitlam and Langley school districts had not adopted specific measures to prepare for an earthquake. The Loma Prieta earthquake in California in 1989 increased earthquake awareness in British Columbia substantially. Thus, the Vancouver, Coquitlam and Langley school districts were faced with the same problem: the formulation and development of earthquake preparedness plans. One might expect that since all three school districts were faced with the same problem that a convergent approach to earthquake preparedness planning would be taken. However, the case studies reveal significant divergence in terms of earthquake preparedness. In relation to earthquake preparedness planning in the three school districts case studies, four factors are analyzed: amount of money spent, centralized approach versus decentralized approach, reliance on external expertise and thoroughness of the plan. Four possible explanations for the divergence of earthquake preparedness plans at the school district level are discussed in this thesis. These explanations are influence of interest groups, influence of key personnel, availability of community wealth, and magnitude of risk. The data base of for this thesis consists of the earthquake preparedness planning experience in the Vancouver, Coquitlam and Langley school districts. Relevant school district managers, staff, teachers, school administrators and parents were interviewed. Interviewees were chosen to represent departments or committees that were directly responsible for disaster preparedness or had some stake, direct or indirect, in the issues posed by earthquake preparedness. Documentary sources, government reports and statistics and newspaper articles were also used. Several conclusions can be drawn regarding emergency preparedness at the school district level. First, if magnitude of risk is significant and recognized, then the natural disaster problem has a greater chance of being addressed in an adequate manner. Second, if interest groups focus on a natural disaster problem, then there is more likelihood of more thorough action being taken than if interest groups were not involved. Third, current fiscal restraint indicates that funding, both public and private, will affect the thoroughness of emergency preparedness planning. Fourth, the preferences and actions of government officials cannot be ignored in regard to emergency preparedness planning. The degree to which natural disaster problems occupy the scope of government officials' preferences and actions will determine the extent to which disaster policy receives attention in many instances.

This thesis examines disaster policy at the local government level. Specifically, earthquake preparedness planning in three British Columbia school districts is examined. The disaster policy cycle and seismic risk in British Columbia are also addressed. Prior to the late 1980's, the Vancouver, Coquitlam and Langley school districts had not adopted specific measures to prepare for an earthquake. The Loma Prieta earthquake in California in 1989 increased earthquake awareness in British Columbia substantially. Thus, the Vancouver, Coquitlam and Langley school districts were faced with the same problem: the formulation and development of earthquake preparedness plans. One might expect that since all three school districts were faced with the same problem that a convergent approach to earthquake preparedness planning would be taken. However, the case studies reveal significant divergence in terms of earthquake preparedness. In relation to earthquake preparedness planning in the three school districts case studies, four factors are analyzed: amount of money spent, centralized approach versus decentralized approach, reliance on external expertise and thoroughness of the plan. Four possible explanations for the divergence of earthquake preparedness plans at the school district level are discussed in this thesis. These explanations are influence of interest groups, influence of key personnel, availability of community wealth, and magnitude of risk. The data base of for this thesis consists of the earthquake preparedness planning experience in the Vancouver, Coquitlam and Langley school districts. Relevant school district managers, staff, teachers, school administrators and parents were interviewed. Interviewees were chosen to represent departments or committees that were directly responsible for disaster preparedness or had some stake, direct or indirect, in the issues posed by earthquake preparedness. Documentary sources, government reports and statistics and newspaper articles were also used. Several conclusions can be drawn regarding emergency preparedness at the school district level. First, if magnitude of risk is significant and recognized, then the natural disaster problem has a greater chance of being addressed in an adequate manner. Second, if interest groups focus on a natural disaster problem, then there is more likelihood of more thorough action being taken than if interest groups were not involved. Third, current fiscal restraint indicates that funding, both public and private, will affect the thoroughness of emergency preparedness planning. Fourth, the preferences and actions of government officials cannot be ignored in regard to emergency preparedness planning. The degree to which natural disaster problems occupy the scope of government officials' preferences and actions will determine the extent to which disaster policy receives attention in many instances. / Arts, Faculty of / Political Science, Department of / Graduate

The oceanic Juan de Fuca and Explorer plates are subducting beneath the continental America plate west of Vancouver Island. The Nootka fault zone, which separates these oceanic plates, experiences left-lateral shear due to the different rates of subduction for the Juan de Fuca (4 cm/yr) and the Explorer (<2 cm/yr) plates. Since 1918, six significant earthquakes (M= 5.3 - 7.2) have occurred in the region where the projection of this fault zone intersects central Vancouver Island. In this study two of the largest events are examined; the 1918 (Ms ≃ 7) and the 1957 (Ms ≃ 6) earthquakes. Prior to this research, no comprehensive studies of these events had been carried out. A total of 46 seismograms from 24 stations worldwide were obtained for the 1918 earthquake, and 138 seismograms from 46 stations were obtained for the 1957 earthquake. The preferred epicentre for the 1918 earthquake is 49.47°N, 126.24°W, with an estimated uncertainty of ±30 km. The preferred focal depth of 15 km indicates that this was a crustal earthquake. Magnitude estimates are Ms = 6.9 ± 0.3, mb, = 7.2 ± 0.4 and MI = 7.0, in agreement with previous studies. Surface wave analysis suggests this is a predominantly strike-slip earthquake occurring along either a NNW or an ENE striking fault. A seismic moment of 7.40x10²⁵ dyne-cm and a stress drop of 122 bars, indicative of an intraplate event, are estimated. The preferred epicentre for the 1957 earthquake is 49.65°N, 127.02°W with an uncertainty of ± 20 km. The estimated focal depth of 30 km suggests this event occurred in the subducting oceanic plate. Magnitude estimates are Ms = 5.9±0.2, rrif, = 6.3±0.3 and Mi = 5.7. Surface wave and P-nodal analyses indicate that this is a predominantly strike-slip earthquake; either dextral along a NNW striking fault, or sinistral along a ENE striking fault. The seismic moment is estimated to be 8.14x10²⁴ dyne-cm, and the stress drop to be 36 bars, which is indicative of an interplate event. The quality of these data does not allow for an unambiguous interpretation of these earthquakes in terms of seismotectonic models. However, the results of this study indicate that these earthquakes do not have normal or thrust mechanisms. The 1918 earthquake appears to be a crustal, intraplate event resulting indirectly from the complicated interaction of the Explorer, Juan de Fuca and America plates. The preferred epicentre, depth and stress drop for the 1957 earthquake are consistent with left-lateral motion between the Juan de Fuca and Explorer plates along the Nootka fault zone where it is being subducted beneath Vancouver Island. Uncertainties in the above parameters however, do not rule out the possibility of this being a crustal earthquake along a NW striking fault. / Science, Faculty of / Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Department of / Graduate

A comprehensive seismotectonic model is developed to explain the seismicity of British Columbia. In order to do this extensive revisions are made to location and magnitude parameters in the Canadian Earthquake Data File. Fault plane solutions are calculated for all earthquakes possible and all mechanisms previously calculated are examined and upgraded where necessary. It is proposed that the subcrustal suite of earthquakes in the Puget Sound and southern Vancouver Island region are a result of strain caused by phase changes in the descending oceanic lithosphere of the subducting Juan de Fuca plate. The crustal earthquakes above the deeper seismicity can be explained with an oblique subduction model. The distribution of seismicity, the amount of seismicity and the focal mechanisms support these interpretations. The large earthquakes of central Vancouver Island are probably a result of the interaction of the Explorer Plate with the overriding America Plate. In the southern Queen Charlotte Islands thrusting components in the fault plane solutions confirm there is an element of convergence across the pacific/America boundary in this region. The distribution of seismicity suggests all relative plate motion is presently occurring along the Queen Charlotte fault. The Quaternary volcanoes of British Columbia show little correlation with the seismicity pattern except for the eastern end of the Anahim volcanic belt. / Science, Faculty of / Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Department of / Graduate

Earthquakes, such as the ones capable of affecting the Lower Mainland of British Columbia, can have a devastating effect on the environment that people live and work in. The purpose of this thesis is to examine methods of dealing with the hazards and problems created by existing, often historically significant, unreinforced buildings in earthquake-prone areas. Gaining an understanding of the complexity of this problem and the issues involved in establishing hazard mitigation policies gives insight into the policy-making process. The research indicates that a number of internal and external factors affect the formulation, adoption, and implementation of hazard mitigation policies. Despite limited awareness of the problem, low political salience of the issue, and limited resources in most communities, there are many steps that can be taken that will reduce the public's exposure to the risks created by unreinforced buildings and strengthen historically significant buildings that hold value, socially, economically, and culturally. Establishing more extensive mitigative measures, such as implementing a seismic retrofit policy, requires a decision-making process that must involve the people who live and work within that community. Each community, through a process of consultation with the stakeholders, needs to decide if it is in their interest to pursue hazard mitigation strategies to reduce the seismic risk. There is a need to integrate hazard mitigation strategies into the daily decision-making process of politicians and planners. The thesis concludes with some points for stakeholders to consider in designing policy to reduce the earthquake hazard that all the communities in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia face.

Earthquakes, such as the ones capable of affecting the Lower Mainland of British Columbia, can have a devastating effect on the environment that people live and work in. The purpose of this thesis is to examine methods of dealing with the hazards and problems created by existing, often historically significant, unreinforced buildings in earthquake-prone areas. Gaining an understanding of the complexity of this problem and the issues involved in establishing hazard mitigation policies gives insight into the policy-making process. The research indicates that a number of internal and external factors affect the formulation, adoption, and implementation of hazard mitigation policies. Despite limited awareness of the problem, low political salience of the issue, and limited resources in most communities, there are many steps that can be taken that will reduce the public's exposure to the risks created by unreinforced buildings and strengthen historically significant buildings that hold value, socially, economically, and culturally. Establishing more extensive mitigative measures, such as implementing a seismic retrofit policy, requires a decision-making process that must involve the people who live and work within that community. Each community, through a process of consultation with the stakeholders, needs to decide if it is in their interest to pursue hazard mitigation strategies to reduce the seismic risk. There is a need to integrate hazard mitigation strategies into the daily decision-making process of politicians and planners. The thesis concludes with some points for stakeholders to consider in designing policy to reduce the earthquake hazard that all the communities in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia face. / Applied Science, Faculty of / Community and Regional Planning (SCARP), School of / Graduate

Strong evidence suggests that the Cascadia subduction zone, off the west coast of Canada and the United States, is strongly seismically-coupled and that a possible megathrust earthquake might occur in that area in the near future. A study of tsunami hazards along the Canadian west coast associated with such a hypothetical earthquake is presented in this report. Numerical simulations of tsunami generation and propagation have been carried out using three models based on shallow water wave theory. Three cases of ground motion representing the ruptures of different crustal segments in the area have been examined. Computed results provide information on tsunami arrival times and a general view of the wave height distribution. The outer coast of Vancouver Island was found to be the most strongly affected area. At the head of Alberni Inlet, wave amplitudes reached up to three times the source magnitude. Inside the Strait of Georgia, the wave heights are significant enough to receive closer attention, especially in low-lying areas. / Science, Faculty of / Physics and Astronomy, Department of / Graduate

The purpose of this study is to critically examine whether hospitals located in high seismic risk areas such as Vancouver can respond as post-disaster facilities in the aftermath of a major earthquake. Earthquake experience in California during the 1971 San Fernando and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquakes in particular demonstrate that hospitals may be vulnerable and rendered unable to fully respond to their communities needs. In the case of earthquakes, risk management methods are limited to two strategies: pre-event mitigation to reduce the effects of the earthquake on life safety and loss of property; and providing recovery services after the event. In the case of post-disaster hospitals, experience shows that mitigation strategies ensure the functionality of the facility. Therefore, mitigation strategies must not only include structural mitigation to protect the life safety of its occupants, they must also include strategies which ensure the functionality of both the building operations as well as that of therapeutic and diagnostic medical equipment in the aftermath of an earthquake. Vancouver General Hospital is used as a case study to critically examine seismic pre-event mitigation strategies which include: the structures; building operation and medical equipment which are dependent on the supply of potable water and power. Findings of this study indicate that the current supply of potable water is not reliable and that some of VGH's essential building operations and medical equipment will not be functional due to losses in water pressures and disruptions in service. This study recommends that VGH should consider mitigation strategies which make the hospital independent of outside sources of both water and power supply in order to meet its emergency role as a post-disaster facility following an earthquake. The functionality of VGH in the aftermath of a major earthquake will be seriously curtailed unless there is adequate storage of potable water on site to meet the emergency needs of this hospital.

The purpose of this study is to critically examine whether hospitals located in high seismic risk areas such as Vancouver can respond as post-disaster facilities in the aftermath of a major earthquake. Earthquake experience in California during the 1971 San Fernando and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquakes in particular demonstrate that hospitals may be vulnerable and rendered unable to fully respond to their communities needs. In the case of earthquakes, risk management methods are limited to two strategies: pre-event mitigation to reduce the effects of the earthquake on life safety and loss of property; and providing recovery services after the event. In the case of post-disaster hospitals, experience shows that mitigation strategies ensure the functionality of the facility. Therefore, mitigation strategies must not only include structural mitigation to protect the life safety of its occupants, they must also include strategies which ensure the functionality of both the building operations as well as that of therapeutic and diagnostic medical equipment in the aftermath of an earthquake. Vancouver General Hospital is used as a case study to critically examine seismic pre-event mitigation strategies which include: the structures; building operation and medical equipment which are dependent on the supply of potable water and power. Findings of this study indicate that the current supply of potable water is not reliable and that some of VGH's essential building operations and medical equipment will not be functional due to losses in water pressures and disruptions in service. This study recommends that VGH should consider mitigation strategies which make the hospital independent of outside sources of both water and power supply in order to meet its emergency role as a post-disaster facility following an earthquake. The functionality of VGH in the aftermath of a major earthquake will be seriously curtailed unless there is adequate storage of potable water on site to meet the emergency needs of this hospital. / Applied Science, Faculty of / Community and Regional Planning (SCARP), School of / Graduate