ABSTRACT Over the past 40 years, the economic development has enabled our country to shift from an agriculture-based society to an industry & commerce-based one. In recent years, we have even been ranked one of leading countries involved in external trade. Of the island-type economy, our country highly relies on import to provide the goods which we fail to produce or afford. To ensure our security, maintain the economic order and public interest, and be in line with international trade norms, the government often formulates a variety of measures to control the people¡¦s economic activities. As the enforcement of control strategy narrows the imported goods, the smuggling becomes an access to seeking the substantial profit. That gives rise to more and more rampant smuggling in our country. In response to the economic development, social pattern, market needs and entry into WTO, we have sharply changed both customs policy and tariff rate structure. Moreover, large quantities of articles smuggled are transformed from the past foods, Chinese herbal medicines, textiles and cosmetics to nowaday wine & tobaccos, agricultural products, high-tech products, poisons and weapons, and the way of smuggling, from crew member to container and fishing boat. The act of smuggling constitutes economic crime, which is the part of underground economic activities. The activity of smuggling disrupts the domestic order of economy, destroys the governmental policy of control and influences the income of tariff. The smuggling of poisons and weapons even endangers the people¡¦s health, social safety and national security. The damage resulting from smuggling crime is far more serious than other criminality. Thus, it is the most urgent to analyze the factors contributing to smuggling and further put forth the management strategy for the government¡¦s reference. In this study, I first gather the major cases of smugglers arrested over the past years, then make use of the approaches such as documentary analysis, deep interview and empirical analysis to analyze the factors contributing to smuggling and next focus upon the factors to explore the management strategy of smuggling and submit the proposal. The results of research reveals that the primary factors contributing to smuggling are inclusive of high tax rate structure, the governmental enforcement of control and the existence of underground economic market. In addition, the governmental poor execution and lack of anti-smuggling manpower and equipment enable the smuggling activities to increase. According to the empirical analysis, if the coefficient for the impact of smuggling act happening during the preceding first and second terms on current smuggling act indicates positive, the learning effect of smuggling act occurring during the preceding first and second terms exists but is not so conspicuous. The coefficient of criminal case uncovering rate is negative, meaning if the uncovering rate is high, the smuggling act will reduce but the degree of influence is unconspicuous. Furthermore, the coefficient for the impact of police administration expenses incurred during the preceding first, second and fourth terms on the current expense is positive, signifying the learning effect of police administration expense exists but is conspicuous for the preceding first term with the coefficient of over 5%. The coefficient of average real income per capita is positive but unconspicuous. That signifies police administration expense is affected by income as well but the degree of influence is unconspicuous. Research comes to the conclusion that the government should measure the domestic productivity and market needs to moderately lift the ban on more smuggled goods or lower tax rate and work out rent seeking problem arising from control or high tax rate through the economic means. Besides, the government should list the budget for arresting smugglers to strengthen educational training for anti-smuggling personnel, improve anti-smuggling equipment, properly amend the statutes to heighten the penalty of smuggling crime, map out the measures for arresting smugglers, apply the strategic management model to strategic planning, strategic implementation, strategic assessment, strategic review and amendment in order to exert the anti-smuggling effect to a great extent and restrain the act of smuggling.

The nuclear industry lacks a well documented, systematic procedure defining the requirements for power plant cycle selection and optimisation. A generic technoeconomic optimisation methodology is therefore proposed that can serve in the selection of balance-of-plant configurations and design conditions for High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor (HTGR) power plants. The example of a cogeneration steam plant coupled to a pebble bed reactor, with or without an intermediate buffer circuit, was used in search of a suitable methodology. The following analyses were performed: • First order thermal hydraulic analysis • Second order thermal hydraulic analysis including cost estimation • Third order steady state analysis to evaluate part-load operation • Third order transient analysis to test operability and controllability The assumptions, level of detail required, modelling methodology and the type of decisions that can be made after each stage are discussed. The cycles under consideration are evaluated and compared based on cycle efficiency, capital cost, unit energy cost and operability. The outcome of this study shows that it is worthwhile spending the effort of developing a second order costing model and a third order model capable of analysing off-design conditions. First order modelling could be omitted from the methodology. The advantage of a second order model is that the cycle configuration can be optimised from a unit energy cost perspective, which incorporates the effects of both capital cost and cycle efficiency. The optimum cycle configuration differs from that predicted by first order modelling, which illustrates that first order modelling alone is insufficient. Third order part-load operation analysis showed operability issues that were not apparent after first or second order modelling. However, transient analysis does not appear justified in the very early design stages. To conclude, the proposed methodology is summarised as follows: • Evaluate the user requirements and design constraints. • Apply design principles from the Second Law of thermodynamics in selecting cycle configurations and base case operating conditions. • Optimise the operating conditions by performing second order thermal hydraulic modelling which includes component design and cost estimation. • Evaluate part-load operation with third order analysis. • Select the cycle with the lowest Levelised Unit Energy Cost (LUEC) and simplest operating strategy. / Thesis (M.Ing. (Mechanical Engineering))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2010.

The nuclear industry lacks a well documented, systematic procedure defining the requirements for power plant cycle selection and optimisation. A generic technoeconomic optimisation methodology is therefore proposed that can serve in the selection of balance-of-plant configurations and design conditions for High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor (HTGR) power plants. The example of a cogeneration steam plant coupled to a pebble bed reactor, with or without an intermediate buffer circuit, was used in search of a suitable methodology. The following analyses were performed: • First order thermal hydraulic analysis • Second order thermal hydraulic analysis including cost estimation • Third order steady state analysis to evaluate part-load operation • Third order transient analysis to test operability and controllability The assumptions, level of detail required, modelling methodology and the type of decisions that can be made after each stage are discussed. The cycles under consideration are evaluated and compared based on cycle efficiency, capital cost, unit energy cost and operability. The outcome of this study shows that it is worthwhile spending the effort of developing a second order costing model and a third order model capable of analysing off-design conditions. First order modelling could be omitted from the methodology. The advantage of a second order model is that the cycle configuration can be optimised from a unit energy cost perspective, which incorporates the effects of both capital cost and cycle efficiency. The optimum cycle configuration differs from that predicted by first order modelling, which illustrates that first order modelling alone is insufficient. Third order part-load operation analysis showed operability issues that were not apparent after first or second order modelling. However, transient analysis does not appear justified in the very early design stages. To conclude, the proposed methodology is summarised as follows: • Evaluate the user requirements and design constraints. • Apply design principles from the Second Law of thermodynamics in selecting cycle configurations and base case operating conditions. • Optimise the operating conditions by performing second order thermal hydraulic modelling which includes component design and cost estimation. • Evaluate part-load operation with third order analysis. • Select the cycle with the lowest Levelised Unit Energy Cost (LUEC) and simplest operating strategy. / Thesis (M.Ing. (Mechanical Engineering))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2010.

The focus of this thesis is in the development and application of a normative framework for handling both variability and uncertainty in making decisions using economic evaluation. The framework builds on the recent work which takes an intuitive Bayesian approach to handling uncertainty as well as adding a similar approach for the handling of variability. The technique of stratified cost effectiveness analysis is introduced as an innovative, intuitive and theoretically sound basis for consideration of variability with respect to cost effectiveness. The technique requires the identification of patient strata where there are differences between strata but individual strata are relatively homogenous. For handling uncertainty, the normative framework requires a twofold approach. First, the cost effectiveness of therapies within each patient stratum must be assessed using probabilistic analysis. Secondly, techniques for estimation of the expected value of perfect information should be applied to determine an efficient research plan for the disease of interest. For the latter, a new technique for estimating EVPI based on quadrature is described which is both accurate and allows simpler calculation of the expected value of sample information. In addition the unit normal loss integral method previously ignored as a method of estimating EVPPI is shown to be appropriate in specific circumstances. The normative framework is applied to decisions relating to the public funding of the treatment of osteoporosis in the province of Ontario. The optimal limited use criteria would be to fund treatment with alendronate for women aged 75 years and over with previous fracture and 77 years and over with no previous fracture. An efficient research plan would fund a randomised controlled trial comparing etidronate to no therapy with a sample size of 640. Certain other research studies are of lesser value. Subsequent to the analysis contained in this thesis, the province of Ontario revised there limited use criteria to be broadly in line with the conclusions of this analysis. Thus, the application of the framework to this area demonstrates both its feasibility and acceptability. The normative framework developed in this thesis provides an optimal solution for decision makers in terms of handling uncertainty and variability in economic evaluation. Further research refining methods for estimating information value and considering other forms of uncertainty within models will enhance the framework.

Diss. (sammanfattning). Uppsala : Sveriges lantbruksuniv. / Härtill 4 uppsatser.

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This study explored energy solutions for Ghana by analysing alternative pathways from 2010 to 2040. The Long-range Energy Alternating Pathways (LEAP) tool was used the scenarios analysis. Four scenarios were developed based on key influencing factors identified in the literature. These are Base case, Coal, Modest Renewable Energy Technology (RET), and High RET scenarios. The Base case scenario was based on government-planned expansion and assumed no shift in policy. The Coal scenario assumed the same expansion trend as Base case with introduction of coal plants replacing a percentage of natural gas generation. Modest and High RET scenarios examined the development of the system with increased renewable energy integration. The results revealed that overall benefits are achieved with higher integration of renewable energy technologies. Economic benefits of 0.5 –13.23% is achieved in the RET scenarios depending on the cost development over the 30 year study period. The high RET offers the highest economic and environmental benefits. Subsequently, the optimal development of the system was examined using the LEAP/OSeMOSYS (Open Source Energy Modelling System) optimisation methodology. The least cost system developed by LEAP (Optimum scenario), was used as a reference to examine future possible energy policy direction in Ghana. The policy constraints analysed included emission targets, carbon taxes and transmission, distribution losses improvements and demand side efficiency. The results show that: suitable policies for clean power generation have an important role in CO2 mitigation in Ghana. The introduction of carbon minimisation policies will also promote diversification of the generation mix with higher penetration of renewable energy technologies. The study proposes promoting energy efficiency and improvement in transmission and distribution losses and utilisation of renewable energy as the best energy strategy for Ghana. Ghana needs ambitious targets, policies and implementation strategies to enhance energy efficiency, and decrease demand in the long term. Stable funding and promotion of transparent policies are required to promote high development of renewable energy technologies.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-10-09T12:55:15Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 / Made available in DSpace on 2014-10-09T14:04:55Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 12934.pdf: 10142023 bytes, checksum: 136ed50823f975ac1a6f09494961d4c0 (MD5) / O governo brasileiro com seu programa Luz para Todos tem como desafio acabar com a exclusão elétrica das comunidades rurais do país. Outra preocupação é a respeito da falta de abastecimento de energia, previsto para os próximos anos. No entanto, uma vez atendidas estas demandas há uma tendência de minimizar a exclusão elétrica no país, principalmente em regiões isoladas onde vivem as famílias de baixa renda. Este trabalho tem o objetivo de apresentar um estudo de viabilidade econômica de fontes alternativas de energia para comunidades isoladas do Nordeste brasileiro que não têm acesso à energia elétrica. Inicialmente foi feito um levantamento bibliográfico da utilização das fontes alternativas de energia propostas neste trabalho: eólica, solar e biomassa, que podem ser usadas para suprir a falta de energia elétrica na região do Nordeste do Brasil. Numa segunda etapa foi escolhido o estado Maranhão, pois se tem informações suficientes desta região para aplicar a metodologia proposta no trabalho. A partir desta escolha foi construído um banco de dados com as características típicas da região para as comunidades que possuem entre 1.000 a 10.000 habitantes. Finalmente, foi elaborado um programa de cálculo denominado de PEASEB (Programa de Cálculo de Custos das Energias Alternativas Solar, Eólica e Biomassa), com a finalidade de facilitar os cálculos de viabilidade econômica de cada uma das fontes alternativas de energia propostas neste trabalho. Nestes cálculos foram levados em consideração os impactos ambientais causados por cada uma destas fontes de energia. Com base nos resultados obtidos conclui-se que em termos de custo-benefício as alternativas de energia propostas podem atender as comunidades carentes do Nordeste brasileiro. Além disso, qualquer uma delas pode contar com os recursos naturais que a região possui. No entanto, por meio dos resultados comparativos de viabilidade econômica as energias: eólica e de biomassa apresentaram os melhores resultados. As conclusões deste trabalho podem contribuir com os projetos de geração de energia e inclusão social do governo federal, possibilitando assim, o crescimento econômico do país / Dissertação (Mestrado) / IPEN/D / Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares - IPEN-CNEN/SP

Global pressure to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, energy security concerns and increasing demand for liquid fuels incentivize the search for more sustainable and secure alternative methods for producing liquid fuels with improved efficiency and reduced environmental impacts. One of the economically attractive examples of these alternate methods is the gas-to-liquid process, however, its environmental impacts are worse than traditional petroleum refining. Carbon capture and sequestration is an option to reduce greenhouse gas emissions of processes, but it decreases the efficiency of the process and often results in economic infeasibility. Instead, integrating different processes and feedstocks was demonstrated to improve the efficiency, economic and environmental performance of the processes. The focus of this thesis is to design and simulate a novel integrated biomass, gas, nuclear to liquids (BGNTL) process with negative greenhouse gas emissions. In this process, nuclear heat from a high temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) is used as the heat source for a steam methane reforming (SMR) process. The integrated HTGR and SMR process requires detailed analysis and modeling to address key challenges on safety, operability, economic and environmental impacts of the integrated process. To this end, a rigorous first principle based mathematical model was developed in gPROMS modeling environment for the integrated HTGR/SMR process. The results for a large scale design of this system indicate that hydrogen rich syngas with H2/CO ratio in the range of 6.3 can be achieved. To meet the desired H2/CO ratio (around 2) required for the downstream fuel synthesis processes, the HTGR/SMR derived syngas can be blended with a hydrogen lean syngas from biomass gasification. In this thesis, the large scale design of the BGNTL process to synthesize gasoline, diesel and dimethyl ether (DME) is investigated. The results from the gPROMS model of the integrated HTGR/SMR system are used for simulating the BGNTL process in Aspen Plus. The performance of the BGNTL process was compared with a biomass, gas to liquids (BGTL) process. The efficiency, economics, and environmental impact analyses show that the BGNTL process to produce DME is the most efficient, economic and environmentally friendly process among all the considered designs. The results demonstrate that process integration exploits certain synergies that leads to significantly higher carbon and energy efficiencies and lower greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, it was found that all the studied designs yield a net negative greenhouse gas emissions when carbon capture and storage technology is implemented. As another sustainable alternative to meet the required H2/CO ratio of the syngas when biomass resources are not available, it is proposed to apply the nuclear heat to the mixed reforming of methane. This represents using steam and waste CO2 to reform methane into valuable syngas. The developed model for the integrated HTGR/SMR system is extended to the mixed reforming of methane (MRM) process and it was demonstrated that integrated HTGR/MRM process can be a promising option to achieve certain desired H2/CO ratios for the downstream energy conversion processes. / Thesis / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Yes / Introduction As a consequence of the low cost and perceived safety, proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) are widely prescribed but they can cause longterm adverse effects and are often overprescribed. For most patients PPIs should not be continued long-term as patients can become dependent on PPIs and they are rarely stepped down/off treatment. We aimed to measure whether a dyspepsia review service could help patients on PPIs to step down/off treatment whilst still keeping them symptom free. Methods Pharmacists were provided with training on dyspepsia management. Four general practices were selected. Patients taking a PPI for more than two months were included. A list of exclusion criteria (e.g. active ulcers, newly initiated) was applied. Between six and eight dyspepsia review clinics were run at each site. Patients were booked into a 15-minute consultation. A concordance style consultation was held with clinicians providing information on dyspepsia management and exploring the patients’ ideas, concerns and expectations about stepping down or stepping off treatment. A follow-up audit was performed at four months to determine if patients had remained stepped down/off. An economic evaluation of clinic costs and drugs savings was performed. Results A total of 508 patients were invited to a review; 136 did not attend and 58 were excluded due to not meeting the inclusion criteria, leaving 314 patients reviewed for step-down/step-off. Successful step down/step off was achieved in 257 people (82% of those reviewed). The total cost savings of PPIs was £7,100. The additional cost of alginates was £1,207 giving a net saving on medicines of £5,893 per annum. Set-up costs were £1,194 and staff costs £3,524 to £5,156 giving total running costs, which vary dependent on the Agenda for Change (AfC) grade of pharmacist involved, of £4,720 - £6,351. Conclusion A dyspepsia review clinic is cost-neutral to run but, given that many patients are on polypharmacy, PPI step down might best be considered as part of a holistic medication review clinic. / Reckitt Benckiser, National Institute for Health Research, Health Education England