This thesis describes an optimization model for the allocation of logs from alternative sources for a series of successive time periods. The model was formulated as a multi-stage decision process and is solved by dynamic programming. The analytic framework consists of two connected recurrence equations, each incorporating two decision-variables. These two relationships, together with the feasibility regions defined for a hypothetical problem, describe the optimization process. The hypothetical allocation problem, used as a vehicle for model development, requires mill demands for quantities of pulplogs and sawlogs to be satisfied for three time periods. Logs are delivered from five available sources, four log-producing areas and an open log market, and temporary log surpluses are allowed. Only a limited quantity of logs is available from each source in each period, two of the four forest areas supply only pulplogs and a third area is inaccessible in one period. The variable unit costs of delivered logs differ not only between each source and period but are also dependent upon the magnitude of an allocation. In addition to satisfying mill demands for specified quantities of logs, there is a further requirement with regard to sawlogs. Average lumber prices are assumed to be dependent upon the tree species processed and variable log conversion costs are assumed to decrease with increase in log diameter. Consequently, the comparison of alternative allocation policies involves not only the sum of the variable delivered log costs but also a measure of the value of delivered sawlogs. In the thesis "sawlog net worth" is evaluated and combined with log production and log transportation costs to give a composite cost term, "net delivered log cost." This is the measure used to evaluate each allocation and is incorporated in the first of the two recurrence equations. This equation is used to derive minimum cost allocation policies for all possible quantities that may be allocated from each period. In the second equation the minimum costs derived from the first allocation process are combined with a second term to evaluate alternative allocations between periods. This second cost component is incurred when surplus logs are "cold-decked" for subsequent mill conversion. To ensure a sufficient flow of logs, and to take advantage of seasonal differences in "net delivered log costs," log surpluses are permitted. When log surpluses are "cold-decked" additional log handling costs are incurred which must be considered when alternative allocations between periods are evaluated. This requirement is satisfied by introducing the additional cost component into the second equation. The different derivations given for the "net delivered log costs" for five sources of logs demonstrate an important feature of the formulation: there is no requirement that costs must be linearly related to the quantity allocated. This freedom is well illustrated by the introduction of additional "fixed" costs which are dependent upon the magnitudes of the quantities allocated. In a demonstration of the flexibility of the formulation a complex log production system was assumed for source two. For each allocation from this source two optimal quantities were derived. The first was the quantity of sawlogs selected from specified log classes, the second was the optimal portion of the quantity of peeler logs developed that should be traded. An exchange could be made either for sawlogs, or for pulplogs, or both. With the development of this log allocation model a fresh approach to log production planning is now possible. The analytic framework is capable of extensive adaptation and the model itself can be readily modified to suit a variety of conditions. Whether used as described, or as part of a larger analytical system, the computational advantages of dynamic programming are now available to the planner. / Forestry, Faculty of / Graduate

This research was undertaken to study the effect of education on small farm revenues and profits in Kenya. Schooling (defined as the number of school standards completed by the farm operator) was used as the most important source of education. It was hypothesized that schooling has a positive effect on farm revenues and profits. The effect of other sources of information viz; extension contact, demonstration attendance and baraza attendance on farm revenues and profits were also investigated. The research was done using regression analysis where these variables and other farm activity relevant variables were fitted in regression equations. The choice of these variables were based on economic theory, Kenya small farm characteristics and the objective of the study. Several factors would qualify as supporting evidence for the argument that educated farmers are more productive. We expect educated farmers to be more informed in terms of use of new production technologies. Education as a source of human capital also enhances the productive abilities of human beings and also enables those who have invested in education to use their resources more efficiently as well as adjusting to new "ways of producing more efficiently". In the current study we find that schooling of the farm operator is positively related to level of expenditure on farm purchased variable inputs. This indicates that education enhances adoption of new technologies and innovativeness. Further it was shown that farmers with more education earned more value added per acre from their farm business compared to their less educated counterparts. On the overall farm activity, farmers with eight or more standards of schooling earned upto 80.2% in value added per acre compared to those who had no schooling. The regression estimates were done on a stepwise procedure where farm specific enterprises were estimated separately and then aggregated and estimated as one farm sector. Thus a crop equation, a livestock equation and a total farm output equation were estimated. This model was then developed into a variable profit function. A simple linear function procedure was used in the regression analysis. In all the estimated value added equations the schooling coefficient was positive and significant at 5% level two tail t-test. As we move from farm specific activities to a farm aggregate output model and lastly to value added model the schooling coefficient increased in size confirming the positive role of education in allocative effect. These results show that schooling plays an important role in allocation of other purchased inputs and also choice of crop mix and input selection. The estimated marginal return to schooling of farm operator in the profit function was Kshs.281. In an earlier function where schooling of the farm operator was fitted into a total farm income equation the estimated marginal return to schooling was Kshs.778.89. When schooling of the farm operator is allowed to interact with extension service the estimated interaction variable coefficient is negative showing the two act as substitute sources of knowledge, and the schooling coefficient increased in size showing that those who had both schooling and extension service earned comparatively more farm revenues. The role of other educative factors like extension service, demonstration attendance, and baraza attendance in influencing agricultural production was investigated. Regression results showed that extension contact had a negative and significant effect on farm revenues and profits. Demonstration and baraza attendance had similar effects on farm revenues and profits. In the value added function hired labour variable was fitted as the cost of hired labour per day. The estimated coefficient for this variable was positive and significant at 5%. The estimated coefficient for this variable shows hired labour is not optimally used, and farmers can increase their farm profits by hiring more labour. When this variable was fitted as the wage rate paid to hired labour per day the estimated coefficient was positive and significant. These results indicate that cost of hired labour depends on its quality. In the sales function hired labour was specified as mandays of hired labour per year and the estimated coefficient which reflects the shadow price of labour was higher than average hired labour wage rate implying that this factor is underemployed. In the sales function the estimated coefficient for the value of purchased inputs variable indicates that there is an element of underutilization of these inputs. This variable is fitted in value terms and in profit maximizing conditions the estimated coefficient is expected to be no different from unit. However, the estimated coefficient for this variable is approximately 2.5 showing a shilling spent on purchased inputs will bring forth 2.5 shillings. Thus an increase in the use of purchased inputs will increase farm revenues. Results show evidence of regional differences in farmer productivity and utilization of purchased inputs in favour of Central province. The study is based on the 1982 CBS-IDS-World Bank Household Survey of Rural Kenya data set. / Land and Food Systems, Faculty of / Graduate

Given the fundamental importance of population base to the level of economic activity, an accurate population estimate is essential to most planners. Interprovincial migration is the major factor in differing regional population growth. Hence an understanding of the Canadian "footloose" behaviour of individuals is invaluable. The purpose of this thesis was twofold: first to find the economic determinants of interprovincial migration for two-age cohorts (the working and the retired), for the 1966-1981 (ex-post) and second to forecast the number of working migrants for 1982 (ex-ante). The case of British Columbia was used. The main sources of migration data were the number of account transfers for family allowance and old age security benefits. Structural and time-series models were investigated. The former were used for explaining and forecasting purposes and the latter for forecasting purposes only. The techniques applied were ordinary least squares for the structural models and unconditional non-linear least squares with back forecasting (Box and Jenkins) for the time-series models. The outcome was that income variables, labour variables, housing prices, personal taxes, cost of living variables and housing market variables were all significant determinants of interprovincial migration. One exception was the out-migration of the elderly group where only housing prices and cost of living variables had any significance. The results also indicated that first the elderly were more sensitive to housing prices, personal taxes and cost of living differentials between British Columbia and the rest of Canada and second the two-age cohorts had similar elasticities to migrate for labour and housing market variables. Finally, in combining ex-ante and ex-post results, it was shown that the optimum solution for determining net migration of the working was in-migration estimates minus out-migration estimates using the structural models. / Business, Sauder School of / Graduate

The objective of this thesis was to estimate the rate at which four types of farm machinery lose value in Canada. Specifically, Canadian data on used machinery prices was utilized to produce estimates of economic depreciation for two-wheel-drive tractors, combines, square balers and large round balers. The data used in this thesis to make these estimates are special for two reasons. First of all, they represent the only extensive record of Canadian used farm equipment prices available. Most previous studies have based their estimates on American data, assuming that they apply equally well to the Canadian situation. Secondly, these data record actual transactions in the used market and these transactions have been reported in an unaveraged format. This is valuable because information on options, horsepower, condition, and, most importantly, hours of use was retained for each machine. The availability of this information permitted richer and more specific estimates of depreciation. In particular, the inclusion of hours of use in the models enabled a distinction to be made in this thesis between the component of depreciation which is directly attributable to age and that component which is directly attributable to accumulated hours of use. It is felt that this distinction provides a beginning point for the study of depreciation due to simple "wear and tear", and that depreciation which is due to obsolescence and technological change. As well, this thesis extensively reviewed the literature on depreciation in an effort to determine the best approach to follow. The method finally adopted was the "remaining value approach"; however, the thesis went further than the typical remaining value approach because an attempt was made to estimate the pattern as well as the rate of depreciation. This was done by initially adopting a functional form which was flexible enough to let the data "choose for themselves" between the commonly used depreciation rules of thumb (declining balance, straight-line and one-hoss-shay patterns). This was possible by using the Box-Tidwell procedure. This Box-Tidwell procedure when applied to the extensive tractor data indicated that tractors in Canada follow a declining balance (geometric) pattern of depreciation. This was taken as support for the adoption of semi-log models to estimate depreciation. The main findings of this thesis are, first, that depreciation rates vary among assets (from approximately 9% for tractors to nearly 16% for large round balers), and, secondly, that these rates are less than those allowed by the government for tax purposes. It was concluded that this generosity on the part of the government would be acceptable if it applied equally to all depreciable assets, but the divergence in depreciation rates found in this thesis indicate that generous blanket depreciation charges give more advantage to some than to others. / Land and Food Systems, Faculty of / Graduate

Advertising is an institution of economic, cultural and spatial regulation. This thesis examines the role of the advertising industry in mediating the geographies of markets and identities. In the same way that Stuart Ewen (1976) links the structure of the advertising industry in the 1920s to its role in the consolidation of national markets, mass consumption patterns and consumer identities congruent with Fordism, I tie the restructuring of the industry in the current period to the new regime of flexible accumulation. There is an increased need for information about consumers and a heightened design-intensity in flexible production. Institutions of power/knowledge such as advertising play an important role in linking production and consumption and in establishing a “just-in-time” consumption. In addition, through the process of “branding”, advertising agencies attach images to goods. Branding involves matching consumer identities with the “identities” of products. An important component of this process encompasses the formation of “brandscapes”, places where the product is sold and consumed. Advertising both responds to the location of consumers and situates consumers in space. At the same time that advertising has grown in importance, I find that the advertising industry is experiencing a crisis in the 1980s and 1990s. This crisis reflects a weakening of the industry’s ability to regulate the formation of markets and identities. The increasingly discontinuous and fluid spatial and temporal nature of consumer identities, combined with “reflexive modernization”, have made it increasingly difficult for advertisers to locate consumers in terms of both identity and space. In response to this crisis and under new conditions of flexible accumulation, U.S. agencies have reoriented both their organizational structure and their methods of operating. In terms of the reorganization of agencies themselves, I focus on two divergent tendencies in the 1980s and 1990s: the concentration! transnationalization of agencies on one hand, and the increased polarization/flexibility of agencies on the other. I draw upon trade journal literature and 55 interviews with employees. With respect to changing methods, I examine the role of agencies in processes of globalization, market segmentation and shifting gender identities. Increasingly sophisticated methods of monitoring consumers’ use of commodities, forms of resistance and places of consumption point to an escalation of surveillance in the current period. My thesis presents a contribution to debates over both flexibility and identity. I argue that the distinction between producer and consumer has become increasingly blurred, and that the two have come closer together at the site of advertising. / Arts, Faculty of / Geography, Department of / Graduate

The primary purpose of this thesis was to examine short run supply aspects of British Columbian (EB.CC..)) ornamental nursery stock propagation and trade. To this end, spatial equilibrium analysis was utilized in studying the influences of Canadian plant protection regulations, transportation costs, and costs of production on United States (U.S.) import levels into the province as well as domestic production levels. ;The basic constructs of the spatial equilibrium analysis were the transportation model and the production-distribution model. These models were used in establishing interregional and international production and trade patterns with respect to B.C. They relate to selected ornamental varieties under specified efficiency criteria and various parameters, with reference to the 1973 calendar year. In addition, sensitivity analysis was conducted within the spatial equilibrium framework. This indicated the strength of the competitive position of domestic propagators vis-a-vis U.S. propagators and provided an insight into the future state of health of the B.C. industry. Finally, an examination of domestic propagation levels was undertaken via quantitative and qualitative analyses in an attempt to explain the residual U.S. import quantities into B.C. For the purpose of this study eight distinct geographical regions were identified. Each region contained a representative point of origin or destination. Seven of these regions were specified as production or supply regions, comprised of four domestic production regions and three U.S. production regions. Five of the eight regions were identified as consumption or demand regions, comprised of four B.C. consumption regions and one Prairie consumption region. Three nursery conifers, Juniperus chinensis 'Pfitzeriana Aurea, ' Thuja occidentalis Pyrdmidalis' and Pinus mugho mughus were selected as being representative ornamental plant materials for the purpose of this study. The results of this study show that in 1973, B.C. propagators of the specified nursery materials had a competitive advantage in supplying domestic consumption regions. But this competitive advantage was reduced to some extent by the existence of Canadian plant protection regulations. This had the effect of both directly and indirectly inducing movement of materials from the U.S. in greater quantities than would have been the case without regulations. This study further shows that the competitive advantage of domestic propagators over U.S. growers was tenuous. Assuming 1975 transportation rates, a 10 percent increase in domestic costs of production, and constant U.S. procurement costs, would lead to the competitive advantage being shifted to U.S. suppliers for some ornamental materials. In addition the study discovers nothing to indicate that domestic propagation levels were unduly constrained by resource limitations. The results suggest that rapid domestic consumption increases coupled with grower uncertainty regarding legislative constraints and certain 'externalities' enjoyed by U.S. propagators, accounted for greater import levels than would have been expected a priori. It is believed that the findings of this analysis can be extended to other ornamental plant materials involved in B.C. propagation, insofar as they are produced and sold in part or entirely under similar conditions to those dealt with in the study. / Land and Food Systems, Faculty of / Graduate

There is interest in forest sampling methods which have the ability to provide reliable estimates of volume without incurring unreasonable costs. Fraser (1977), to this end, described an individual tree variable probability sampling method which selects sample trees with probabilities based on the areas of polygons derived from triangles. A comparison of some alternative methods of sampling these polygons confirms Fraser's work and demonstrates that the method proposed by him probably has the greatest potential for practical forest sampling. / Forestry, Faculty of / Graduate

This dissertation deals with theoretical and empirical aspects of factor demand and output supply decisions of firms. In the theoretical part of the thesis, some major existing theories of investment are discussed and their formulation is extended to the case of firms which extract an exhaustible resource. Those theories are then incorporated into a model which exploits complementarities between some of them and can reflect some well-known hypotheses, such as the putty-clay hypothesis, as special cases. This model relies on a general notion of irreversibility: a decision is defined as irreversible if it introduces a new constraint to a firm. This constraint may be a non negativity constraint, but may also mean the appearance of costs of adjustments. Such an approach implies a distinction between ex ante phases and ex post phases in the life of firms, those phases being separated by the irreversible decisions. Two empirical applications are presented. The first one corresponds to the ex ante phase of the theoretical model, and deals with the capacity selection decision of some North-American open-pit metal mines. According to the evidence, this decision takes account of economic parameters, such as expected prices, as well as geological and technological parameters. The second empirical application correspond to the ex post phase of the theoretical model, and deals with the short-run production decisions of some mines. Both empirical studies provide support for the putty-clay hypothesis. / Arts, Faculty of / Vancouver School of Economics / Graduate

M.Ing. / As the manufacturing environment evolved over the past century, the nature of investments in manufacturing capabilities changed dramatically. Automation can be seen as the single biggest driver of this evolution; enabling the manufacturing fraternity to develop smarter technology in order to exploit the opportunities that were created by the volatility that exist in most markets. This lead to the development of flexible manufacturing technology. Constructing a definition of manufacturing flexibility is difficult mainly due to the various views and perspectives that exist of flexibility. In short, flexibility can be defined as the ability to react ( to any change ) with little penalty in time, effort, cost or performance. These technologies that enable a manufacturing system to be flexible in a certain manner are generally difficult to justify in terms of traditional financial yardsticks. This can be contributed to the diverse benefits to be gained from these investments; and often these benefits are of a nonfinancial nature. Furthermore, when reviewing investments in flexible manufacturing technology within a process environment there appears to be an even bigger problem. The relatively fixed nature of the design output of process equipment, and the enormous quantities of capital outlay initially required to erect and commission process plants, often makes it near impossible to justify any investment that does not deliver good financial returns within the short term. Thus it becomes clear that the traditional methods of investment appraisal within the process environment have become generally unsuitable; and this call for a re-evaluation of the processes applied to guide value adding investments. This study set out to deliver a logical approach to appraising investments in manufacturing flexibility by defining a framework to be applied. The proposed framework consists of the following 4 primary steps. Firstly the strategic direction followed by the business is defined; then an analysing of the manufacturing flexibility required is performed. The third step is to evaluate the manufacturing technology available and furthermore a suitable performance measured criteria is defined to evaluate the proposed investment. This model is set within the strategic context of the manufacturing strategy of a business and thus should ensure the development of manufacturing capabilities that will ensure business growth over the medium to long term.

The objective of the thesis was to develop a computerized farm management information system that would assist ranchers, extension personnel and farm management specialists in their decision making process. Intensive formal farm planning was made feasible by the use of a multiperiod linear programming model supplemented by an input form, matrix generator and report writer software. The model developed represented the structure and production conditions of a beef cow/calf, cow/yearling ranch. It incorporated decision variables representing feeding and livestock activities and the cash flows associated with those activities. The management information system was tested on ten cow/calf, cow/ yearling ranches in the central interior of British Columbia. From the examination of actual test ranches, their management practices, and their problems, a hypothetical ranch was formulated. This ranch was used to illustrate the capabilities and output of the management information system. The capabilities documented were of a descriptive/budgeting, optimization, and research nature. The output consisted of an inventory report, income statement, cash flow summary, balance sheet, financial measures and ratios, and a livestock summary. The conclusion was reached that the management information system developed is a valid descriptive/predictive tool applicable to commercial beef operations. / Land and Food Systems, Faculty of / Graduate