The impact of political and economic events on the asset pricing model described by the arbitrage pricing theory (APTM) was examined in order to establish if they had caused any changes in its specification. It was concluded that the APTM is not stationary and that it must be continuously tested before it can be used as political and economic events can change its specification. It was also found that political events had a more direct effect on the specification of the APTM, in that their effect is more immediate, than did economic events, which influenced the APTM by first influencing the economic environment in which it operated. The conventional approach that would have evaluated important political and economic events, case by case, to determine whether they affected the linear factor model (LFM), and subsequently the APTM, could not be used since no correlation was found between the pricing of a risk factor in the LFM and its subsequent pricing in the APTM. A new approach was then followed in which a correlation with a political or economic event was sought whenever a change was detected in the specification of the APTM. This was achieved by first finding the best subset LFM, chosen for producing the highest adjusted R2 , month by month, over 87 periods from 20 October1991 to 21 June 1998, using a combination of nine prespecified risk factors (five of which were proxies for economic events and one for political events). Multivariate analysis techniques were then used to establish which risk factors were priced most often during the three equal subperiods into which the 87 periods were broken up. Using the above methodology, the researcher was able to conclude that political events changed the specification of the APTM in late 1991. After the national elections in April 1994 it was found that the acceptance of South Africa into the world economic community had again changed the specification of the APTM and the two most important factors were proxies for economic events. / Business Leadership / DBL

The objective of this research is to investigate the existence of structural changes in unsecured lending time series data and analyse the impact thereof on trends in consumer demand for unsecured credit spanning the years from 2008 to 2015. This is achieved by identifying dates when structural changes occurred over this period. The identified structural break date is linked to an influential economic event or monetary policy change that took place in South Africa of which the impact on three unsecured credit categories are analysed. Unsecured credit growth in South Africa has been subjected to intensive scrutiny since the inception of the National Credit Act (Act No. 34 of 2005) by various regulatory bodies. In 2012 the National Credit Regulator (NCR) commissioned a research study into examining the impact that the National Credit Act (Act No. 34 of 2005) has had on the consumer credit market. The empirical part of this study involved the gathering of time series data on unsecured loans approved, unsecured credit granted per income category and unsecured credit granted from the National Credit Regulator (NCR) database and performing descriptive and econometric analysis. The Zivot-Andrews (1992) and augmented Dickey-Fuller tests determined the break dates which were linked to a significant economic event while the one sample t-test of means compared average loan values before and after the break date. Results of the study indicate that the break dates determined coincided with economic events and monetary policy changes in South Africa, such as the collapse of African Bank, the implementation of the National Credit Amendment Act, prime interest rate movements and the introduction of a debt counselling program by the government. These events, coupled with stricter lending criteria and no further loans being granted to customers already more than three months in arrears, restrained the uptake of unsecured loans to lower and middle income groups. The introduction of new affordability criteria and increasing interest rates in 2014 further negatively impacted demand for unsecured loans. However, higher income earners had the advantage of being able to apply for higher loan amounts. Findings could be used by monetary policymakers and financial institutions to constantly monitor credit trends, improve credit assessment techniques and review lending criteria. / Business Management / M. Com. (Financial Management)

The impact of political and economic events on the asset pricing model described by the arbitrage pricing theory (APTM) was examined in order to establish if they had caused any changes in its specification. It was concluded that the APTM is not stationary and that it must be continuously tested before it can be used as political and economic events can change its specification. It was also found that political events had a more direct effect on the specification of the APTM, in that their effect is more immediate, than did economic events, which influenced the APTM by first influencing the economic environment in which it operated. The conventional approach that would have evaluated important political and economic events, case by case, to determine whether they affected the linear factor model (LFM), and subsequently the APTM, could not be used since no correlation was found between the pricing of a risk factor in the LFM and its subsequent pricing in the APTM. A new approach was then followed in which a correlation with a political or economic event was sought whenever a change was detected in the specification of the APTM. This was achieved by first finding the best subset LFM, chosen for producing the highest adjusted R2 , month by month, over 87 periods from 20 October1991 to 21 June 1998, using a combination of nine prespecified risk factors (five of which were proxies for economic events and one for political events). Multivariate analysis techniques were then used to establish which risk factors were priced most often during the three equal subperiods into which the 87 periods were broken up. Using the above methodology, the researcher was able to conclude that political events changed the specification of the APTM in late 1991. After the national elections in April 1994 it was found that the acceptance of South Africa into the world economic community had again changed the specification of the APTM and the two most important factors were proxies for economic events. / Business Leadership / DBL