Thesis (Ph.D.)--OGI School of Science & Engineering at OHSU, Oct. 2005. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 132-142).

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Maryland, 1990. / Includes bibliographical references.

Freie Univ. Berlin, Diss., 2004. / Includes bibliographical references and index.

Dissertation--Freie University, Berlin, 2004. / Includes bibliographical references and index. Also available in print.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Princeton University, 1965. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 166-173).

Thesis. / Title on added t.p.: Trends and perspective of industrial development in Kuwait. Title page dated: 1984. Includes bibliographical references (p. 259-268).

M.Comm. (Financial Economics) / The term structure of interest rates, particularly the term spread determined from the difference between ten-year government bond yields and three-month Treasury bill yields, has received increased attention as a valuable forecasting tool for the purposes of monetary policy and recession forecasting. This is on the back of the observed positive relationship between term spread and economic activity. Moreover, the term spread has been observed to invert prior to the occurrence of economic recessions both in developed and developing countries. This study investigated the forecasting ability of the South African (S.A.) term spread in predicting S.A. recessions, taking into account the recent global economic recession. The reason behind the investigation is due to the forecasting consistencies illustrated by the term spread in providing statistically incorrect signals of recession in 2003, which did not transit into reality. It implied a weak relationship between the S.A. term spread and economic activity. Moreover, based on observations from the literature that term spreads and economic activities across countries are correlated, the term spreads of China, United States (U.S.) and Germany were investigated and compared to the S.A. term spread, to determine which better forecasts S.A. recessions. The study employed the Dynamic Probit Model, since it is considered to provide a better predictive edge over the Traditional Static Probit model. The findings revealed that the S.A. term spread accurately predicted all the S.A recessions since 1980; Chinese term spread accurately predicted the 1996 and 2008 S.A recessions; U.S. term spread predicted some recessions; while German term spread predictions were countercyclical.

With businesses operating in an environment of uncertainty, questions were raised around the role of rolling forecasts in this environment and how the current financial processes have changed as a result of the uncertainty. There are currently debates regarding the role of budgeting and other planning methods, one of which is rolling forecasts. One school of thought believes that budgets are no longer relevant in current times and should be replaced with newer methods, whereas the second school of thought believes that budgets are still current and relevant. Having experienced a global financial crisis, the current time can be described as one of uncertainty. Banks were one of the industries hardest hit by this crisis. This research investigates whether the financial planning processes in banks has changed to align itself with an environment of uncertainty. It further explores whether banks have adopted rolling forecasts in their planning processes. Data was collected using expert interviews. The sample included 8 respondents across 3 different banks. The data was then analysed using content analysis. The outcome allowed for visibility into the changes made by banks in their financial planning processes. Insights into the reasons why rolling forecasts were not used was also obtained. Uncertainty in the environment resulted in banks making changes to their financial planning processes. It also emerged that none of the respondents use rolling forecasts. However some of the respondents use forecasting models which are based on some principles of rolling forecast. This research contributes to the budgeting and planning discipline. It contributes by exploring how the budget process is changing to align itself with the changing environment. It also contributes by providing insights into why rolling forecasts are not adopted. / Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2010. / Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) / unrestricted

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This work explores the relationship between corporate and economic growth within the United States since 1929. The corporate share of GDP climbed from 52.5 percent in 1929 to 59.7 percent in 2005. Depending upon the years included and the method of estimating respective growth rates, this increasing share of GDP accounts for up to 14 percent of real domestic corporate growth. However, the domestic corporate share of GDP can never exceed 100 percent. Subject to numerous assumptions, the models presented here estimate that this source of corporate growth could be exhausted as early as the year 2032. Given the lack of discussion of this issue in the relevant literature, it is unlikely that current stock valuations account for the eventual loss of this source of growth. The actual effect on stock prices of such a slowdown of domestic corporate growth will depend not only on how far into the future such an event occurs, but also on how successful these corporations are at finding new growth opportunities overseas. More research is needed to better model