What are the main macroeconomic factors that help understand economic growth in Brazil since 1870? Are institutions (and changes in institutions) a deep cause of economic growth in Brazil? Are these effects fundamentally and systematically different? Does the intensity and the direction (the sign) of these effects vary over time, in general and, in particular, do they vary with respect to short- versus long-run considerations? This thesis tries to answer these questions focusing on within country over long periods of time. It uses the power-ARCH (PARCH) econometric framework with annual time series from 1870 to 2003. The results suggest that financial development (domestic and international) exhibit the most robust first-order effects on growth and its volatility. Political instability, trade openness and public deficit play important yet secondary roles since the effects of the first two do not extent to the long-run (that is, they are restricted to the short-run) and those off the latter are sensitive to the measures of the variables used in our analysis.

Orientador: Mariano Francisco Laplane / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-08T07:48:24Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Baltar_CarolinaTroncoso_M.pdf: 699106 bytes, checksum: f740e002a31269fbf7aeb52ee908f9bc (MD5) Previous issue date: 2007 / Resumo: O período 2003-2005 foi marcado pelo intenso crescimento do comércio mundial. Neste contexto, o Brasil foi capaz de reverter seu déficit de comércio, usufruindo de expressivo superávit. Porém, este dinamismo comercial não foi acompanhado de crescimento da economia nacional. Para uma melhor compreensão deste paradoxo é necessário um maior entendimento da relação entre comércio e crescimento econômico. Além disso, é também importante verificar os acontecimentos ocorridos a partir da década de 1990 na economia brasileira, após a implementação das reformas liberalizantes. Esta dissertação faz uma análise empírica do comércio brasileiro neste período recente de expansão do comércio mundial, com o objetivo de relacionar o tipo de comércio brasileiro com as características da estrutura industrial que existe no país. A metodologia adotada traz como novidade a possibilidade de se avaliar o comércio de uma perspectiva mais qualitativa, a partir do exame do tipo de produto e região de origem e destino dos fluxos / Abstract: The period between 2003-2005 illustrated a high growth in world trade. In this context, Brazil was able to revert its trade deficit, taking advantage of a considerable surplus. Nevertheless, this trade dynamism did not go hand in hand with national economic growth. To have a better comprehension of this paradox, it is necessary to have a greater understanding of the relation between trade and economic growth. Moreover, it is also important to verify what changes took place in the Brazilian economy after the 1990s, with the implementation of the liberalized reforms. This dissertation makes an empirical analysis of Brazilian trade in this recent period of world trade expansion, with a view to comparing the kinds of Brazilian trade with the industrial structure that exists in this country. The methodology adopted is innovative in that it allows the evaluation of trade from a qualitative perspective, by examining the kind of product and region of origin and destination of the flows / Mestrado / Teoria Economica / Mestre em Ciências Econômicas