abstract: In the study of regional economic growth and convergence, the distribution dynamics approach which interrogates the evolution of the cross-sectional distribution as a whole and is concerned with both the external and internal dynamics of the distribution has received wide usage. However, many methodological issues remain to be resolved before valid inferences and conclusions can be drawn from empirical research. Among them, spatial effects including spatial heterogeneity and spatial dependence invalidate the assumption of independent and identical distributions underlying the conventional maximum likelihood techniques while the availability of small samples in regional settings questions the usage of the asymptotic properties. This dissertation is comprised of three papers targeted at addressing these two issues. The first paper investigates whether the conventional regional income mobility estimators are still suitable in the presence of spatial dependence and/or a small sample. It is approached through a series of Monte Carlo experiments which require the proposal of a novel data generating process (DGP) capable of generating spatially dependent time series. The second paper moves to the statistical tests for detecting specific forms of spatial (spatiotemporal) effects in the discrete Markov chain model, investigating their robustness to the alternative spatial effect, sensitivity to discretization granularity, and properties in small sample settings. The third paper proposes discrete kernel estimators with cross-validated bandwidths as an alternative to maximum likelihood estimators in small sample settings. It is demonstrated that the performance of discrete kernel estimators offers improvement when the sample size is small. Taken together, the three papers constitute an endeavor to relax the restrictive assumptions of spatial independence and spatial homogeneity, as well as demonstrating the difference between the small sample and asymptotic properties for conventionally adopted maximum likelihood estimators towards a more valid inferential framework for the distribution dynamics approach to the study of regional economic growth and convergence. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Geography 2018

Philosophiae Doctor - PhD / The 1996 Singapore Ministerial Declaration refocused attention in the international community on the idea of non-reciprocal system of trade preferences as a means of development assistance. Authors of the initiative had hoped that such policy would among others, help promote industrial exports and facilitate sustainable development in developing countries. However, this happened against the background that previous schemes could not be particularly associated with any form of sustainable export successes that were usually contemplated and expected from beneficiaries. In view of the developmental implications of this renewed focus, the imperativeness of an reconsideration of the economics of the programme cannot be overemphasized. While extant trade preference studies have made important contributions to our understanding of their effectiveness, the limited focus of research on direct impact like, static increases in exports, foreign direct investment (FDI) and employments does not seem to provide satisfactory assessment. Very often, the expected indirect or dynamic impact on productivity improvements needed to strengthen competitive capacities and make gains (export performance) sustainable is neglected. In this study an attempt is made to address this issue. The main objective of the research is therefore to analyse the relationship between nonreciprocal system of trade preferences and industrial export performance sustainability in beneficiary countries. This is accomplished by utilising a new analytical insight from the global production network literature. The advantages of this analytical departure lie not just in the fact that it allows us to accommodate the dynamic dimension of impact assessment into the study framework, but also helps reflect the concerns of globalisation advocates in the contemporary analysis of development issues. These advocates argue that research on economic development in general and industrial development in particular in the new era of global capitalism must as a matter of necessity, be informed by the literature on globalisation. After conceptualising an analytical model which has both static and dynamic dimension, it is then applied and tested for the US African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) Trade Initiative of 2000. Lesotho’s apparel export under the scheme serves as the case study for this investigation. Results of the econometric estimation for the static impact assessment reveal that AGOA has been effective in stimulating Lesotho apparel exports to the US market. The dynamic impact assessment dimension is carried out within the context of the debate on economic growth and convergence. Specifically, it is argued that the conditions necessary for export performance to be sustainable require that national social-capability in a beneficiary economy be adequate and sufficient. The estimated regression confirms this hypothesis for the reference case study. Overall, the dissertation has shown that research in economics can benefit from analytical insights borrowed from other disciplines. More important however, is the study’s contribution to the trade policy debate on the impact of trade preferences on export development. On one hand, the static impact analysis addresses a key gap in existing works which seems to place so much emphasis on aggregated national level data and cross-country regression as bases for empirical evidence. By utilising disaggregated firm level data for a specific country, analysis here finds relevance in the continuing policy debate on trade preference impact assessment. On the other hand, the dynamic aspect of the analytical model has not only helped us to shift the frontier of knowledge beyond its current static boundary, but also to inform the debate on economic growth and convergence. As efforts to unravel the puzzle over the non-convergence of cross-country growth performances continue to flourish, findings here lend credence to the hypothesis that social capability matters for economic performance of nations.

We employ income projection models based on human capital dynamics in order to assess quantitatively the role that educational improvements are expected to play as a driver of future income convergence in Europe. We concentrate on income convergence dynamics between emerging economies in Central and Eastern Europe and Western European countries during the next 50 years. Our results indicate that improvements in human capital contribute significantly to the income convergence potential of European emerging economies. Using realistic scenarios, we quantify the effect that future human capital investments paths are expected to have in terms of speeding up the income convergence process in the region. The income projection exercise shows that the returns to investing in education in terms of income convergence in Europe could be sizeable, although it may take relatively long for the poorer economies of the region to rip the growth benefits. (authors' abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

The aim of the thesis is to assess the economy of Spain and its position in the European Union. The European integration processes significantly influenced the development of democracy in Spain as a member state of EU. The period after Franco regime would last undoubtedly much longer and it would grow less dynamically without these processes. The influence of EU affected not only the Spanish economy, but also the current position of Spanish monarchy in Europe and in the whole world. The thesis is structured in three main parts. To be able to assess the Spanish economy during its membership in the EU, it is essential to study the procedures of negotiations between the candidate country and the Community. That is the reason why the first part is engaged in the pre-entry phase. The second part examines in detail the development of the economy after the reintroduction of democracy in the country. It deals mainly with the macroeconomic tendencies, their causes together with consequences. The progress concerns the economic situation in Spain before the entry to the Community, in the second half of eighties, as well as during the nineties. The thesis does not forget to be engaged in the current situation in the new millennium and it also outlines the possible development in the following years. The last part is devoted to the position and the influence of Spain on the main integration directions in the European Union. The coherence and the extent of evaluation can be considered one of the benefits of this work. The thesis introduces the complex view of the Spanish economy since the entry to the EU. It also deals with possible following tendencies. The understanding of the development is facilitated by a large number of graphs and tables, which help to outline the essence of the topic.