Master of Arts / Department of Economics / Tracy M. Turner / The report examines the extent to which the United States market for tradable pollution permits has been an efficient way to reduce sulfur dioxide emissions from coal-burning power plants. To do so, this report first provides background information on the effects of SO2 emissions on the environment in the United States. It discusses the initial attempt with the 1970 Clean Air Act to reduce these emissions and its degree of success. The details of the 1990 Amendments are then given. The economic theory behind the different methods of pollution control (quantity regulation, technology mandate, taxation, and emissions restriction through tradable permits) is explained and their efficiency regarding consumer and producer surplus is contrasted. The report then reviews published articles regarding the topic at hand. The U.S. Acid Rain Program has been found to be very efficient in its ability to reduce sulfur dioxide emissions at a low cost to the producers.

Master of Arts / Department of Economics / Lance J. Bachmeier / The traditional view of oil price movements is that they represent exogenous changes in the supply of oil. In that case, oil price increases will hurt output. Recently, some have questioned whether oil price increases are actually due to higher demand for oil, in which case higher oil prices will be followed by higher output. This thesis develops a model that allows changes in the price of oil to have different effects depending on whether the price of oil and output growth are moving in the same direction (so that the increase in the price of oil was primarily due to an increase in the demand for oil) or in the opposite direction (so that the increase in the price of oil was primarily due to an oil supply shock). The paper presents three sets of results. First, we present the model results for the 1965-2008 time period. Then we look at the 1986-2008 period separately. Finally, we construct a forecasting model for the U.S. industrial production index. The model developed does not require making identifying assumptions and can be used with the data that is available on the internet, and is well understood. Maximum likelihood estimation, which is commonly used for non-linear estimation, is used to estimate the model. We find in-sample evidence in favor of our new model for the 1986-2008 subsample. The new model is unable to provide better out-of-sample forecasts for the 1986-2008 time period.

Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Economics / Philip G. Gayle / My research focuses primarily on industrial organization and applied microeconomics. Specifically, I have extensively studied the airline industry. My first essay considers the effect of the Delta/Continental/Northwest codeshare alliance. Codeshare agreements can benefit airlines due to network expansion and benefit consumers by eliminating a double markup on flight itineraries with multiple operating carriers. However, policymakers have expressed concern that an alliance between airlines may facilitate price and service collusion in markets where codeshare partners’ services overlap. I develop a structural econometric model that is able to separately identify supply and demand factors as sources of price-quantity changes caused by the creation of the alliance. The estimates from the model show both collusive and demand increasing effects associated with the codeshare alliance. However, the demand increasing effect is larger than the collusive effect. My second essay considers the effects of the recent Delta/Northwest merger. This merger is of particular interest because the two airlines are codeshare partners. Using pre-merger data, a counterfactual simulation is performed in which Delta and Northwest are assumed to merge. The results indicate that codeshare products owned by the merging firms experience higher predicted price increases relative to pure online products. In addition, the mean predicted price increases are relatively small across most markets. I also examine pre-merger predictions with post-merger data and analysis and find that the pre-merger predictions roughly accord with “de-merger” simulated effects using post-merger data. My third essay takes an extended look at airline mergers. When the Delta/Northwest merger was approved by the Department of Justice, consumer groups and policymakers were concerned that the merger and poor economic outlook would act as a catalyst for more mergers. This paper examines this possible scenario using simulations to model the effects of other codeshare partners merging in addition to Delta and Northwest. Results indicate that the predicted price increases for all mergers exhibit relatively small averages but large variances across markets. Further, the largest predicted price increases affect a small percent of products and an even smaller percent of passengers who choose products owned by a merging firm.

Sri Lanka's trade regime has been gradually liberalized over the last two decades with the aim of deeper integration into the global economy. The purpose of this study is to present a quantitative assessment of the impacts of major unilateral, regional and multilateral trade liberalization on Sri Lanka, and rank the trade policy options in terms of their welfare effects. This study contributes to the empirical literature on trade liberalization. The Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model is used to analyze the welfare effects of trade liberalization in a multi-country, multi-sector general equilibrium framework. The results show that if Sri Lanka implements the South Asian Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA), while maintaining 15 percent external tariffs for the rest of the world, this combined policy would provide the highest welfare gain to Sri Lanka. The SAFTA by its own would provide the second-highest ranked gain from the trade reforms due to the benefits of preferential access to the large SAARC market. The third-highest ranked policy option comes under the unilateral reduction of import tariffs to 15 percent scenario. As results indicate, the Indo-Lanka Free Trade Agreement (ILFTA) offers the fourth-highest policy option for Sri Lanka. Finally, the phasing-out of MFA on Textiles and Clothing under the Uruguay Round Agreement, rank as the fifth-highest policy option for Sri Lanka. Thus, regional trade liberalization is far more preferable to unilateral and multilateral liberalization. However, as the GTAP model permits, these rankings based on only to the static welfare gains, ignoring the dynamic effect of trade liberalization. In addition, the gravity model has been employed to examine the determinants of Sri Lanka's bilateral trade flows with her selected trading partners, in order to sort out the influence of geographical proximity versus preferential trading policies in creating a regional concentration in trade. Our results confirm the validity of geographical factors such as proximity and cultural familiarity, as determinants of Sri Lanka's trade with neighbouring countries. They suggest that the selected trading partners are “natural trading partners” of Sri Lanka. / Subscription resource available via Digital Dissertations only.

Sri Lanka's trade regime has been gradually liberalized over the last two decades with the aim of deeper integration into the global economy. The purpose of this study is to present a quantitative assessment of the impacts of major unilateral, regional and multilateral trade liberalization on Sri Lanka, and rank the trade policy options in terms of their welfare effects. This study contributes to the empirical literature on trade liberalization. The Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model is used to analyze the welfare effects of trade liberalization in a multi-country, multi-sector general equilibrium framework. The results show that if Sri Lanka implements the South Asian Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA), while maintaining 15 percent external tariffs for the rest of the world, this combined policy would provide the highest welfare gain to Sri Lanka. The SAFTA by its own would provide the second-highest ranked gain from the trade reforms due to the benefits of preferential access to the large SAARC market. The third-highest ranked policy option comes under the unilateral reduction of import tariffs to 15 percent scenario. As results indicate, the Indo-Lanka Free Trade Agreement (ILFTA) offers the fourth-highest policy option for Sri Lanka. Finally, the phasing-out of MFA on Textiles and Clothing under the Uruguay Round Agreement, rank as the fifth-highest policy option for Sri Lanka. Thus, regional trade liberalization is far more preferable to unilateral and multilateral liberalization. However, as the GTAP model permits, these rankings based on only to the static welfare gains, ignoring the dynamic effect of trade liberalization. In addition, the gravity model has been employed to examine the determinants of Sri Lanka's bilateral trade flows with her selected trading partners, in order to sort out the influence of geographical proximity versus preferential trading policies in creating a regional concentration in trade. Our results confirm the validity of geographical factors such as proximity and cultural familiarity, as determinants of Sri Lanka's trade with neighbouring countries. They suggest that the selected trading partners are “natural trading partners” of Sri Lanka. / Subscription resource available via Digital Dissertations only.

Sri Lanka's trade regime has been gradually liberalized over the last two decades with the aim of deeper integration into the global economy. The purpose of this study is to present a quantitative assessment of the impacts of major unilateral, regional and multilateral trade liberalization on Sri Lanka, and rank the trade policy options in terms of their welfare effects. This study contributes to the empirical literature on trade liberalization. The Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model is used to analyze the welfare effects of trade liberalization in a multi-country, multi-sector general equilibrium framework. The results show that if Sri Lanka implements the South Asian Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA), while maintaining 15 percent external tariffs for the rest of the world, this combined policy would provide the highest welfare gain to Sri Lanka. The SAFTA by its own would provide the second-highest ranked gain from the trade reforms due to the benefits of preferential access to the large SAARC market. The third-highest ranked policy option comes under the unilateral reduction of import tariffs to 15 percent scenario. As results indicate, the Indo-Lanka Free Trade Agreement (ILFTA) offers the fourth-highest policy option for Sri Lanka. Finally, the phasing-out of MFA on Textiles and Clothing under the Uruguay Round Agreement, rank as the fifth-highest policy option for Sri Lanka. Thus, regional trade liberalization is far more preferable to unilateral and multilateral liberalization. However, as the GTAP model permits, these rankings based on only to the static welfare gains, ignoring the dynamic effect of trade liberalization. In addition, the gravity model has been employed to examine the determinants of Sri Lanka's bilateral trade flows with her selected trading partners, in order to sort out the influence of geographical proximity versus preferential trading policies in creating a regional concentration in trade. Our results confirm the validity of geographical factors such as proximity and cultural familiarity, as determinants of Sri Lanka's trade with neighbouring countries. They suggest that the selected trading partners are “natural trading partners” of Sri Lanka. / Subscription resource available via Digital Dissertations only.

Sri Lanka's trade regime has been gradually liberalized over the last two decades with the aim of deeper integration into the global economy. The purpose of this study is to present a quantitative assessment of the impacts of major unilateral, regional and multilateral trade liberalization on Sri Lanka, and rank the trade policy options in terms of their welfare effects. This study contributes to the empirical literature on trade liberalization. The Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model is used to analyze the welfare effects of trade liberalization in a multi-country, multi-sector general equilibrium framework. The results show that if Sri Lanka implements the South Asian Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA), while maintaining 15 percent external tariffs for the rest of the world, this combined policy would provide the highest welfare gain to Sri Lanka. The SAFTA by its own would provide the second-highest ranked gain from the trade reforms due to the benefits of preferential access to the large SAARC market. The third-highest ranked policy option comes under the unilateral reduction of import tariffs to 15 percent scenario. As results indicate, the Indo-Lanka Free Trade Agreement (ILFTA) offers the fourth-highest policy option for Sri Lanka. Finally, the phasing-out of MFA on Textiles and Clothing under the Uruguay Round Agreement, rank as the fifth-highest policy option for Sri Lanka. Thus, regional trade liberalization is far more preferable to unilateral and multilateral liberalization. However, as the GTAP model permits, these rankings based on only to the static welfare gains, ignoring the dynamic effect of trade liberalization. In addition, the gravity model has been employed to examine the determinants of Sri Lanka's bilateral trade flows with her selected trading partners, in order to sort out the influence of geographical proximity versus preferential trading policies in creating a regional concentration in trade. Our results confirm the validity of geographical factors such as proximity and cultural familiarity, as determinants of Sri Lanka's trade with neighbouring countries. They suggest that the selected trading partners are “natural trading partners” of Sri Lanka. / Subscription resource available via Digital Dissertations only.

Sri Lanka's trade regime has been gradually liberalized over the last two decades with the aim of deeper integration into the global economy. The purpose of this study is to present a quantitative assessment of the impacts of major unilateral, regional and multilateral trade liberalization on Sri Lanka, and rank the trade policy options in terms of their welfare effects. This study contributes to the empirical literature on trade liberalization. The Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model is used to analyze the welfare effects of trade liberalization in a multi-country, multi-sector general equilibrium framework. The results show that if Sri Lanka implements the South Asian Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA), while maintaining 15 percent external tariffs for the rest of the world, this combined policy would provide the highest welfare gain to Sri Lanka. The SAFTA by its own would provide the second-highest ranked gain from the trade reforms due to the benefits of preferential access to the large SAARC market. The third-highest ranked policy option comes under the unilateral reduction of import tariffs to 15 percent scenario. As results indicate, the Indo-Lanka Free Trade Agreement (ILFTA) offers the fourth-highest policy option for Sri Lanka. Finally, the phasing-out of MFA on Textiles and Clothing under the Uruguay Round Agreement, rank as the fifth-highest policy option for Sri Lanka. Thus, regional trade liberalization is far more preferable to unilateral and multilateral liberalization. However, as the GTAP model permits, these rankings based on only to the static welfare gains, ignoring the dynamic effect of trade liberalization. In addition, the gravity model has been employed to examine the determinants of Sri Lanka's bilateral trade flows with her selected trading partners, in order to sort out the influence of geographical proximity versus preferential trading policies in creating a regional concentration in trade. Our results confirm the validity of geographical factors such as proximity and cultural familiarity, as determinants of Sri Lanka's trade with neighbouring countries. They suggest that the selected trading partners are “natural trading partners” of Sri Lanka. / Subscription resource available via Digital Dissertations only.

Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Economics / E. Wayne Nafziger / This dissertation explores the relationships between three groups of variables in the transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), from 1989 to 2003. The first group consists of output level and output growth as measured by gross domestic product index (GDPI) and gross domestic product growth (GDPG). The second group consists of two categories of institutional development (INST), and the third group of variables is structural policy reforms (SPR), often known as liberalization policies. This dissertation’s theoretical and empirical framework explicitly account for the endogeneity between output performance variables, the measures of institutional development and SPR. Several empirical specification models of the theoretical simultaneous system of three equations are estimated. In the first group of specification models the dependent endogenous variables are GDPG, SPR and INST, while in the second group the dependant endogenous variables are GDPI, SPR and INST. Moreover, two datasets are used. The first dataset has data from 1989 to 2003, thus covering the whole transition period, while the second dataset is a subset of the first one, containing data for the recovery stage of transition only. The empirical methods used in this dissertation include panel data analysis, principal component analysis, two stages least squares approach and three stage least squares approach in the presence of a SUR modeling procedure. With respect to the output performance equation, the findings of this research indicate that institutional reform (INSTREF), and property rights and contract enforcement institutions (PCINST and ROLINST) are very important determinants of output levels when the whole transition period dataset is used, and very important determinants of both the output levels and output growth rates when the recovery stage dataset is used. While the effect of current SPR is ambiguous, the effect of lagged SPR on output and output growth is positive. Moreover, SPR continue to affect output performance via their indirect effect on institutional development. With respect to the institutional reforms, and property rights and contract enforcement institutions, two sets of determinants were found to be important. On the side of the demand factors, SPR, and especially lagged SPR is found to be an important determinant of both institutional reforms and property rights and contract enforcement institutions. On the side of supply factors, macroeconomic stabilization, a measure of the state’s capacity to implement institutional reform, resulted very important in explaining the variation in institutional reform and property rights and contract enforcement institutions. Political reform, in terms of a shift from the autarkic political regime to a democratic political regime, is found to positively affect institutional development in the recovery stage. With respect to the structural policy reforms’ equations, this dissertation’s main finding is that political reform positively affects SPR in both datasets. Moreover, lagged SPR is found to positively affect SPR, which is an indication of transition governments’ maintained commitment to a package of SPR-s.

Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Economics / Yang M. Chang / The first essay develops a simple sequential-move game to characterize the endogeneity of third-party intervention in conflict. We show how a third party’s “intervention technology” interacts with the canonical “conflict technologies” of two rival parties in affecting the sub-game perfect Nash equilibrium outcome. From the perspective of deterrence strategy, we find that it is more costly for a third party to support an ally to deter a challenger from attacking (i.e., to maintain peace), as compared to the alternative case when the third party supports the ally to gain a disputed territory by attacking (i.e., to create war), ceteris paribus. However, an optimally intervening third party can be either “peace-making,” “peace-breaking,” or neither depending on the characteristics of the conflict and the third party’s stake with each of the rival parties. The second essay develops a simple model to characterize the role that an intervening third party plays in raising the cost of rebellion in an intrastate conflict. Extending the Gershenson-Grossman (2000) framework of conflict in a two-stage game to the case involving outside intervention in a three-stage game, we examine conditions under which an outside party optimally intervenes such that (i) the strength of the rebel group is diminished or (ii) the rebellion is deterred altogether. We also find conditions in which a third party optimally intervenes at a level insufficient to deter rebellion. Such behavior, which improves the incumbent government’s potential to succeed in conflict, is often overlooked in conflict studies evaluating the effectiveness of intervention. One policy implication of the model is that an increase in the strength of inter-governmental trade partnerships increases the likelihood that third-party intervention acts to deter rebellion. In the final essay, a simple model of a college basketball season is constructed to examine the existence of conference bias in college basketball’s Ratings Percentage Index. Given the nature of the RPI formula and the hierarchical structure of college basketball’s 31 conferences, we expect the RPI to be biased against teams playing a difficult conference schedule. The model verifies that, even in a perfect world where teams play to expectation and can be transitively compared based on revealed performance level, the RPI does not necessarily provide an ordinal mapping from revealed team ability level to the real number line. This result has important implications on NCAA tournament selection and seeding.