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Every decade between 1970 and 2010 opened with a recession with all decades except the 1990s experiencing a second recession. Young adults are often hardest hit by a recession in terms of job losses. Young adulthood is a critical time to get an education and educational opportunities lost during this period may not be fully made up in subsequent years. In this dissertation, I explore the effects of adverse economic conditions during the traditional college-age years (18-24) on short, medium and long run educational outcomes. This dissertation consist of one theoretical chapter and three empirical essays. In the theoretical chapter, I show the complexity of business cycle effects on college outcomes. The main issue is that opportunity costs move countercyclically while ability-to-pay moves procyclically, thus these two factors counteract each other over the business cycle. Due to the confounding effects of opportunity cost and ability-to-pay, there is a theoretical ambiguity. In the theoretical framework, I outline the conditions under which downturns may improve educational outcomes and the conditions under which downturns may hurt educational outcomes. The ambiguity and complexity displayed in the theoretical framework underlies the importance of an empirical determination. Essay 1 examines whether economic conditions affect college participation among different demographic groups differently. The main or average effect of an economic downturn on enrollment is well studied. However, research on how a downturn affects individuals from different backgrounds is rare. Using a class of logit models that account for interaction effects, I find that individuals who are black or Hispanic and individuals from low education maternal backgrounds are more likely to enroll in college during high unemployment periods compared to individuals from other demographic backgrounds. Essay 2 picks up where essay 1 leaves off by investigating college outcomes for individuals who enrolled during a recession. While many studies consider the enrollment decisions, little evidence exists on whether enrollment is successfully transformed into completed education for recession era enrollees. Employing an innovative competing risk model, I estimate the completion and drop-out probabilities for individuals who enrolled during a downturn. I find that individuals who enrolled in college at 18 and who experience a recession at enrollment, are less likely to complete a 4-year degree by age 24, are more likely to complete a 2-year degree, are more likely to drop out of college and are more likely to experience inactivity. Essay 3 builds upon the negative effects of a recession on college-aged youths found in essay 2. In essay 3, I study educational attainment after individuals have exited their college-aged years. I investigate whether cohorts who experienced adverse economic conditions during young adulthood eventually caught up with their luckier counterparts who experienced more prosperous years. I find that individuals who experience adverse economic conditions during parts of the college-aged years (18-21) experience lower educational attainment than those who experience more prosperous college-aged years and these negative effects are still present up to ten years post college-age. / Economics

How have the neoliberal concept of "comparative advantage" and the neostructuralist concept of "systemic competitiveness" interacted with State and capitalist efforts to exert control over labor during the transition from ISI to export-oriented accumulation? How have neoliberal and neostructuralist modes of conceptualizing export competitiveness impacted upon the organization of production, the labor process and the reproduction of labor power in Chile? Grounded on these questions, this dissertation examines how these two schools conceive export-competitiveness and make it operational through different export-promotion policies. Particular attention is placed on the neostructuralist claim that there exist two distinct and separate paths to reach competitiveness: a spurious form attained at the expense of workers' wages and a genuine form rooted in the absorption of technical change. Based on aggregate macroeconomic and macrosocial data, ISIC data at the 3 digit level for manufacturing, as well as three case studies--in textile and metal-working--this dissertation examines whether productive efficiency and export-competitiveness has been attained through a reduction of labor costs, technological innovation, or a combination of both that defies the clear-cut dichotomy posited by neostructuralism. Based on the study of manufacturing exports--where allegedly a 'virtuous circle' would allow for concomitant increases in wages, productivity and the establishment of social accords at the enterprise-level--this dissertation concludes that export competitiveness is rooted in socially constructed relations of power ignored by both neoliberal and neostructuralist theories.

<p>In this dissertation, I examine three questions on gender and labor economics. The first two questions are inspired by a broad literature in social psychology which has established that respondents react negatively when women engage in traditionally masculine actions in the workplace (Heilman and Chen 2005; Heilman, Wallen, Fuchs, and Tamkins 2004; Rudman and Glick 1999; Rudman 1998; Rudman and Glick 2001; Bowles, Babcock, and Lai 2006; Amanatullah and Morris 2010). This negative reaction is described as a "backlash effect" (Bowles, Babcock, and Lai 2006).</p><p>I test two hypotheses related to this literature. First, I examine if resumes that use masculine adjectives inspire backlash against female job applicants in a laboratory setting and if this backlash varies by the sexual orientation of the applicant. Second, I take the question of backlash outside of a laboratory environment to see if real employers have the same response as respondents in a laboratory to traditionally masculine actions. In a laboratory setting, I replicate the backlash effect and also show that it only affects perceived-heterosexual women. In a resume audit study, I find the reverse of a backlash effect: employers call back women who use traditionally masculine adjectives more than when they use traditionally feminine adjectives.</p><p>The third question examines the time men spent on childcare during the recession of 2007-2009. The recession provides a sudden change in the employment opportunities of men relative to women in the United States. Using the American Time Use Survey and the linked Current Population Survey, I show that this lopsided shock to employment opportunities was accompanied by an increase in the average amount of time men spent on childcare. In particular, men's average time on physical care for children increased during the recession; this is an element of childcare that men perform less than women. I decompose the total change in average time on childcare into behavioral, compositional, and between group change. A behavioral change among employed men accounted for the majority of the total increase in the average time spent on childcare; among men who are out of the labor force, the increase is entirely due to compositional changes.</p> / Dissertation

<p> This dissertation consists of four chapters on topics in labor and development economics. </p><p> Chapter 1 discusses innovation fluctuations in an aging economy. A three-stage overlapping generations model is constructed to simulate population trends and their consequent impact on innovation and economic development. Both the theoretical analysis and empirical verification show that countries with a low fertility rate have a higher innovation rate in a short period but a lower one in the long run. This chapter discusses the negative impact of an aging economy and yields the strong policy implication of providing a subsidy to boost the fertility rate, particularly for those developed European countries suffering from aging problems. </p><p> Chapter 2 focuses on the relationship between the unemployment rate, working efficiency, and working overtime. It is motivated by the widely observed phenomenon of working overtime in some East Asian countries as well as the consulting and investment banking sectors. Does working overtime indeed produce extra efficiency? I use data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) to answer this question. The answer is NO, and it has little impact on the unemployment rate. This chapter contributes to existing literature with a new empirical approach. It could also guide corporate management professionals in the enactment of proper overtime work policies. </p><p> Chapter 3 discusses the relationship between institutions and economic outcomes. The renowned MIT and Chicago political economists Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson argue that only inclusive political and economic institutions could lead to economic prosperity. Others dispute that their theory captures the whole picture. Bill Gates notably said that the theory of Acemoglu and Robinson must take into account other important factors. Chapter 3 contributes to this controversy. I find that economic prosperity could be harvested even by extractive institutions with immigrant-friendly policies. For example, countries like the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Singapore could enjoy a long-term economic boom due to a good immigration policy that attracts high-skilled and low-skilled immigrants from their neighbors. </p><p> Chapter 4 intends to determine the empirical relationship between income inequality and consumption inequality in China. Existing empirical literature shows that consumption inequality exceeds income inequality in China, which contradicts basic economic theory as well as evidence from the US, Canada, and Europe. I use the inverse relationship between necessity good consumption and income to derive the true income level of each individual. High-income communist party members and employees of government-related agencies tend to hide their grey income, and income inequality is thus underestimated. The relationship I uncover between income and consumption inequality is consistent with the empirical evidence on other countries.</p><p>

This dissertation is an examination of trade effects on workers in textiles and apparels using aggregate, cross-sectional micro, and longitudinal data. In Chapter 2, the effects of import competition (measured as an index of import price) on employment and wages are measured using OLS and two stage least squares with aggregate industry level data. Results suggest that while import competition has had a negative effect on hours worked and employment in the apparel industry, the increase in import competition over the 1977-91 period has not been a primary cause of this decline. / Adjusted wage and relative earnings indices across industries and occupations are used to analyze wage changes in Chapter 3. Also included in the analysis of Chapter 3 are wage equation models that match aggregate import data by industry to the CPS data to determine the effect of increased import share on the wages of union and nonunion workers. Production workers in the textile and apparel industries currently earn approximately 22 percent and 8 percent less, respectively, than similarly skilled workers in other manufacturing industries. Relative earnings indices indicate that in the apparel industry this negative differential has grown. Textile wages, on the other hand, have started to close the wage gap with other manufacturing wages over the same period. / Longitudinal data, matched cohorts from the CPS outgoing rotational groups (ORG) and retrospective data from the Displaced Worker Surveys, are used in Chapter 4 to analyze workers entering and exiting the textile and apparel industries. Results from both the CPS ORG and the DWS suggest that most of the wage differential in textiles and apparel come from ability differences not captured in the standard levels regression. / The results in this dissertation provides evidence that workers in the textile and apparel industries are hired from a highly competitive labor market. While other factors have caused greater injury to workers, increased import competition has the expected results of decreasing employment, while having little effect on wages. Workers in the textile and apparel industries appear to earn competitive wages compared to workers elsewhere in manufacturing, when all available controls are included in the analysis. / Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 56-08, Section: A, page: 3250. / Major Professor: Barry T. Hirsch. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--The Florida State University, 1995.

Remittances from individuals not residing in the home significantly affect recipient households' behavior. Using data from the Jamaican Survey of Living Conditions and the Jamaican Labor Force Survey for years 2001-2007, this dissertation aims to explore some of the most significant effects of remittances, namely effects on labor market participation and household expenditures. Jamaica's proximity to the United States and Canada coupled with Jamaica's diaspora of educated individuals shapes an economy largely dependent on remittances. The country, therefore, provides an interesting and exciting case study for examining the effects of remittances. / In the first essay, we investigate whether remittances alter the labor market behavior of married women (or those in long-term relationships) in remittance-receiving households located in Jamaica. As is often the case in labor supply studies, it is important to identify key variables that are likely endogenous in the model. For purposes of this research, endogenous variables include remittances, the wife's education, and wages. We instrument both when predicting labor market participation and hours worked. Unlike other studies which find the income effect of remittances on household behavior results in increased leisure, we find that after instrumenting for remittances, the outside income has no significant effect on the supply of labor, either in terms of hours worked or participation. / The second paper assesses the extent that remittances alter the consumption pattern of recipient households in Jamaica. Classical theory predicts that total income and not income sources affects household consumption decisions, but developments in behavioral economics suggest the contrary. The disaggregation of both income streams and consumption expenditures as reported in the Jamaica Survey of Living Conditions provide us with unique insight into household behavior and in particular, spending on items such as food, schooling, and vices. Using Engel curve estimation and the two-part fractional response models, we find that the source of the income significantly affects the shares of income spent in specific consumption categories. Recipients, for example, generally spend larger shares of their income on schooling and home production and less at the grocery store. These findings suggest important implications should government look to tax or restrict the flow of remittances.

<p>This dissertation consists of two essays that examine marital formation and dissolution in the United States. The first chapter highlights the roles that both the availability of men and competition from women within a marriage market play in the low marriage rates of uneducated black women. Black women who drop out of high school are far less likely to marry than those who do not; however, they also, counterintuitively, face much more favorable marriage markets than more educated women if we define marriage markets as independent by education level, as is standard. Using a simple model of the marriage market with men and women of different quality levels that allows for marriage market integration across education levels, I show that the marriage prospects of any woman should depend not only on the availability of men, but also the competition from more educated women. Additionally, this model predicts that any gender imbalance should disproportionately affect the marriage prospects for the least educated. Using data from the 1979-2004 waves of the NLSY79, I estimate discrete-time hazard models of first marriages for black women, capturing a woman's marriage prospects in four ways: (i) using a flexible specification that includes five ratios for the relative availability of men as well as the prevalence of competing women at each education level, (ii) using the ratios for the availability of men and women at adjacent education levels, (iii) using an education-specific simple sex ratio from the educationally segmented marriage markets that dominate the literature, and (iv) using a "cascading'' sex ratio implied by the simple model. The results emphasize the importance not only of the supply of men, but also of the competition from other women for the least educated women. Thus, marriage market measures that do not account for this cross-education competition greatly overstate the favorability of the marriage markets for uneducated black women. </p><p>The second chapter is joint work with my advisor Marjorie McElroy and Tongyai Iyavarakul which presents a new approach to the reduced-form estimation of dynamic models using aggregated panel data. With forward looking behaviors, exogenous changes in laws or rules give rise to selection effects on those considering entry and surprise effects for those who have already entered. We develop a model, the Cohort Panel Data Model (CPDM), to examine the effects of divorce law changes on divorce rates. Our analysis has several key features. First, we introduce the concept of a marriage cohort, a group of people married under a certain set of laws. The calculation of the shares of the population in each marriage cohort is a key element of our aggregation protocol. Second, the model includes floodgate effects, a spike in the divorce rate followed by a decline, resulting from heterogeneity within these marriage cohorts. Lastly, we develop a wait-time index for the cost of divorce and carefully code divorce laws based on two dimensions: costs and rights. Thus the model allows for an unbiased test of the Coase Theorem since our model gives the surprise effect of a change in the rights to divorce holding costs constant. Results strongly support the idea that unanticipated divorce law changes affected divorce rates, but finds that these effects are operating through changing costs and not changes in rights (supporting the Coase Theorem). Additionally, lower divorce costs are found to increase divorce rates through the selection of less well-matched couples into marriage. Finally we reconcile our results with previous studies by showing that previous studies that do not differentiate between costs and rights suffer from omitted variables bias and improper aggregation over marriage cohorts.</p> / Dissertation

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Texas at Austin, 2002. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references. Available also from UMI Company.

<p> This dissertation is comprised of three essays. In the first essay we develop a price-setting model that explains the gap between the effect of nominal shock in real activity and the frequency of price change through the interplay of menu costs and uncertainty about productivity. Uncertainty arises from firms' inability to distinguish between permanent and transitory changes in their idiosyncratic productivity. Upon the arrival of a productivity shock, a firm's uncertainty spikes up and then fades with learning until the arrival of the next shock. These uncertainty cycles, when paired with menu costs, generate recurrent episodes of high frequency of price adjustment followed by episodes of low frequency of adjustment at the firm level. This time variation in the individual adjustment frequency is consistent with empirical patterns, in particular a decreasing hazard rate of adjustment, and it is key to understand the sluggish propagation of nominal shocks. </p><p> The second essays studies a model where the relevant asset that affects a firm's financial conditions is her workers. To achieve this, we extend a standard labor market model as in Pissarides (1985) to incorporate default risk. Because it is costly to engage new workers in production, firms attach a value to be matched with a worker and, consequently, their decision to default and leave the economy is affected by this value. We show that fluctuations in the value of a worker generate and significantly propagate fluctuations in financial markets. We find that, absent any fluctuation in the labor market, credit spreads and default rates would be 68% and 80% less volatile, respectively. Finally, we argue that this two sided interaction between labor and financial markets can be an important propagation mechanism of business cycle fluctuations. </p><p> In the third essay I study the optimal inflation target in a menu cost model with an occasionally binding zero lower bound on interest rates. I find that the optimal inflation target is 5%, much larger than the rates currently targeted by the Fed and the ECB, and also larger than in other time- and state-dependent pricing models. In my model resource misallocation does not increase greatly with inflation, unlike in previous sticky price models. The critical additions for this result are firms' idiosyncratic shocks. Higher inflation does indeed increase the gap between old and new prices, but it also increases firms' responsiveness to idiosyncratic shocks. These two effects are balanced using idiosyncratic shocks consistent with micro-price statistics. By increasing the inflation target, policymakers can reduce the probability of hitting the zero lower bound, avoiding costly recessionary episodes.</p>