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A GENERALIZED ESTIMATION PROCEDURE OF BOX-JENKINS' AUTOREGRESSIVE MOVING AVERAGE MODELSUnknown Date (has links)
The purpose of this study is to introduce several criteria and to find the best method for estimating dynamic models with the autoregressive moving average residuals. First, Monte Carlo simulations are used to compare the two stage least square method with the ordinary least square estimates of the residuals (2SLS/OLS), the 2SLS method with Box-Jenkins' estimates of the residuals (2SLS/Box-Jenkins), as well as the 2SLS method with the recursive maximum likelihood method on the residuals (2SLS/ML). The results show that the 2SLS/ML method performs best within the stationary constraints. When the residuals are white noise or out of stationary constraints, the 2SLS/OLS method performs best. The results are ranked according to the criteria of mean square errors (MSE), variance, bias squared, mean absolute deviations (MAD), and the percentage of prediction errors (PPE). / Second, the simulations are used to compare the relative effects of the ARMA errors on the estimates of regression coefficients. We compare the ordinary least square (OLS) and the generalized least square method with the recursive maximum likelihood estimates of the residuals (GLS/ML), and the maximum likelihood method with the maximum likelihood estimates of the autoregressive residuals (ML/ML). The results show that within the unit circle, the ML/ML estimator performs best according to four criteria: deviations between the estimates and the true coefficients, their frequency distributions, the standard deviations of the estimates of dependent variables, and the adjusted coefficient of determination. / Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 42-06, Section: A, page: 2792. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--The Florida State University, 1981.
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A THEORY OF DISTRIBUTIVE JUSTICE IN POSTINDUSTRIAL SOCIETYUnknown Date (has links)
As compared with the established theory of production, distribution theory itself cannot go beyond the normative outskirts and so socio-political circumstances. The principal focus, therefore, is given to socio-political as well as economic changes and its impact on the application of justice theory into distribution in postindustrial society. / Ideologically, American society is conceived to be based upon the value system of equity and equality as key social values rather than efficiency and liberty. The traditional, i.e., liberalistic theories of distribution, which are represented by utilitarian and contractual models, become the conventional wisdom that is not appropriate for understanding a changed society. / We developed a new conceptual model of distributive justice, Neo-Political Economy Model (NPEM) which attempts to integrate justice concept into distribution, based upon the evaluation of a newly elected set of relevant reasons, i.e., desert and need, for achieving a balance between equity (equality) and efficiency (liberty). It pinpoints that the exact position of the lever in a value scale between the two sets of key values cannot be determinate a priori but dependent upon the socio-political surroundings of the economy. / Justice theory as politics at large, of course, has difficulties in its applicability into economic activities including distribution which are assumed to be based upon self-interest. For socio-political existence lies in not only self-interest based upon reason but self-denial expressed as love, friendship, neighborhood, etc. In this sense, the Rawlsian contractarian liberalistic theory of justice has certain limits to conceiving the wholeness of social existence. / Our conclusions are that American postindustrial society moves in favor of equity and equality through fulfilling needs of people below a "social norm," and its justification relies on reasoning that distributive justice lies in achieving the wholeness of social existence by incorporating self-denial into a newly emerging structure of communal life. / Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 43-06, Section: A, page: 2051. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--The Florida State University, 1982.
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DEMAND FOR MONEY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: CASES OF IRAN, NIGERIA, AND VENEZUELAUnknown Date (has links)
This study deals with the identification of demand for money function in Iran, Nigeria, and Venezuela. This is important in the study of monetary policy as a tool for influencing macroeconomic variables in these countries. / Prior to performing any tests, and based on the coefficients of the estimated consumption functions for the countries under study, two sets of permanent income values corresponding to gross domestic product (GDP) and non-oil GDP were calculated for each of these countries. Then, by evaluating the estimated coefficients of the log-linear forms of the variables and also evaluating the stability levels of these coefficients under the different specifications of the variables, the homogeneity of degree one on income, prices and population hypotheses was tested. All of these hypotheses were accepted for Iran and Nigeria, and while the one related to population was not rejected in the case of Venezuela, money proved to be "luxury" and the price elasticity proved to be less than one for this country. / Using the Chow test, it was concluded that current GDP is the proper "scale" variable for Iran and Venezuela and permanent GDP is the appropriate one for Nigeria. It was also proved that estimated coefficients related to investment-income ratio (as a proxy for interest rate) was statistically significant only for the case of Venezuela. / Developing an adaptive expectation model, the role of expectations in inflation was examined and denied in all cases, and it was proved that lag money stock can be considered to be an argument in the functions related to Iran and Venezuela. / The comparison of the R('2) and standard error of estimates led to the conclusion that nominal M1 is the proper money stock specification for Iran and Nigeria. The same result proved to be held for Venezuela only after a dynamic simulation technique was applied. / Finally, the crucial issue of stability was examined. The very smallness of the standard error of the generalized three stage least squares estimates of the parameters and the demand for money functions themselves exhibited the high predictability and the stability of these functions, suggesting the efficacy of monetary policy in stabilizing these three developing economies. / Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 44-09, Section: A, page: 2848. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--The Florida State University, 1983.
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DIRECT FOREIGN INVESTMENT AND JOINT-VENTURE AGREEMENTS IN YUGOSLAVIA: A MICROECONOMIC MODELUnknown Date (has links)
At first the dissertation focuses on Yugoslavia's unique socioeconomic system and her labor-managed enterprise as a host of direct foreign investment. Subsequently, the analysis turns to the foreign partner--multinational corporations (MNC)--as a vehicle of direct foreign investment (DFI). Finally, the study proceeds to the examination of Yugoslav joint-venture agreements when those two distinct partners pool their resources in a joint business venture. / The dissertation develops a microeconomic model of joint ventures established between profit-maximizing multinational corporations and Yugoslav labor-managed enterprises which maximize income per worker. It analyzes the issues of resource allocation and profit distribution in this unique transideological enterprise. The analysis focuses on the role of transfer pricing, bargaining power and structural inefficiencies due to the unique structure of property rights in socialist Yugoslavia, which partially explains why Yugoslavia attracted relatively few joint-venture agreements. / In addition, the study examines the actual experience of Yugoslav joint ventures, particularly in light of the new joint-venture legislation enacted in November, 1984. / Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 46-10, Section: A, page: 3124. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--The Florida State University, 1985.
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THEORIES OF ECONOMIC VALUE: VALUE THEORY IN ECONOMICS AND ITS FOUNDATIONS IN PHILOSOPHYUnknown Date (has links)
The last three decades have witnessed a revival of interest in value theory in economics, accompanied by mounting challenges to the neoclassical orthodoxy. Not only has neoclassical price theory come under attack, especially from the neo-Ricardian critique of contemporary capital and distribution theory, but there has also been dissatisfaction with the performance of neoclassical "value" theory as a theory of value in the broadest sense of the term. / A theory of economic value needs to do more than just provide a theoretical account of the quantitative determination of exchange values of commodities. It needs to identify the origin or source of value, and to relate the surface phenomena of prices and outputs to their underlying real value determinants. Relatedly, it should demonstrate an adequate understanding of the human processes of valuation which culminate in consumption, production and exchange activities. Finally, a theory of economic value ought to provide a framework in which prices, outputs, employment and the entire empirical realm can be evaluated, as well as to encourage such an evaluation. Neoclassical value theory has been criticized for its performance in all these areas. / Using these criteria--criteria for a comprehensive, fully-fledged theory of economic value--this dissertation examines and evaluates the major theories that have attracted support (at one time or another) during the last two centuries--the (classical) cost-of-production theory, the labor theory of value, utilitarian marginalism, and the Austrian, neoclassical and energy theories of value. / Particular attention is given to the axiological foundations of these theories. The kinship between philosophical theories of value and theories of economic value is demonstrated by addressing a variety of value issues and dichotomies encountered in the philosophical literature and by examining the forms in which these value issues appear in the specific subject area of economic value. These issues include: whether value is intrinsic or instrumental, the relationship between evaluation and descriptions, the subjective/objective "dichotomy", and the issue of whether the promotion of human welfare or the overcoming of resistance is the ground or source of value. / Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 47-08, Section: A, page: 3147. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--The Florida State University, 1986.
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DETERMINANTS OF THE MONEY SUPPLY IN CANADA, 1875-1964Unknown Date (has links)
Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 30-09, Section: A, page: 3619. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--The Florida State University, 1969.
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SRAFFA AND THE CIRCUIT OF PRODUCTIVE CAPITALUnknown Date (has links)
In this dissertation I establish the common Physiocratic heritage shared by Karl Marx and Piero Sraffa. For Marx, this heritage finds expression in his second volume of Capital, Chapter Two, "The Circuit of Productive Capital", and for Sraffa, in his work, Production of Commodities by Means of Commodities, Chapter Two, "Production With a Surplus." Employing Imra Lakatos' characterization of science as a continuing research program consisting of two partitions: the negative heuristic or core and the positive heuristic or protective belt, I link the research of Sraffa and Marx to each classification. With regard to the former, both thinkers acknowledged the priority of physical surplus within the ambit of political economic regard. The latter division, the positive heuristic, concerns the delineation of these logical concepts, particularly relative price, which focus attention upon the process of surplus formation. In Sraffa's hands, the standard commodity expresses the valuation of this surplus in the face of natural changes in distribution rates and various labor - material input compositions among industries. Here, Sraffa has achieved the goal of a consistent picture of surplus along the lines of the positive heuristic while likewise solving Marx's problem of discovering a mechanism whereby uniform surplus is related to uniform profit. / Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 46-04, Section: A, page: 1055. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--The Florida State University, 1985.
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Monetary equilibria and chaosUnknown Date (has links)
The mathematical theory of chaos is shown to be a logical step in the evolution of economic equilibrium theory. The mathematics and intuition of chaos is developed in some detail, and its use in the economic literature reviewed. / The chaotic, perfect foresight, overlapping generations model of Grandmont (1985) is extended to include a financial sector, and to explore the implications of money as a medium of exchange. Under different conditions, unique stable equilibria, periodic equilibria (cycles), and aperiodic equilbria are shown to exist. Unlike the Grandmont model, which explored money only as a store of value, this model is not dichotomous. Central bank money supply policy is shown to affect the real sector equilibrium, but in unpredictable ways. / The visual inspection of autocorrelations, the estimation of the largest Lyapunov exponent, and the correlation dimension are all explored as empirical tests for chaos in economic series. These tests are applied to 12 quarterly economic series with mixed results. Furthermore, through the examination of model data, the tests are shown to be sensitive to pre-conditioning methods, initial conditions, and additive white noise. / Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 50-08, Section: A, page: 2602. / Major Professor: George Macesich. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--The Florida State University, 1989.
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A macroeconomic forecasting model for JordanUnknown Date (has links)
Economic forecasts are needed in order to gain knowledge about future trends and events that are crucial for current decision making regarding the economy. There are no known models for forecasting the Jordanian economy. The purpose of this thesis is to design a forecasting model for the Jordanian economy; to forecast gross national product (GNP), gross domestic product (GDP), consumer price index (CPI), consumption, investment, export, import, money demand, exchange rate, change in inventory, employment level, and government expenditure. / Two methods of forecasting are used. One is an econometric model; while the other is the Box-Jenkins method. After each method was independently used, a composite forecast was built that relied equally upon each of the independent models. The composite forecast performed better than either the Box-Jenkins model or the econometric model in the major variables of GNP, GDP, CPI, and employment. The average ex-post forecasts were comparable to the best forecasts of the other two models for private consumption, export, import, exchange rate, and change in inventory. Finally, the composite forecast is preferred to other methods of forecasting because the Box-Jenkins model over-forecasts most of the variables while the econometric model under-forecasts most of the variables. / Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 50-11, Section: A, page: 3700. / Major Professor: Joan Haworth. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--The Florida State University, 1989.
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ULTRA-IMPERIALISM: A STUDYUnknown Date (has links)
Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 38-04, Section: A, page: 2268. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--The Florida State University, 1976.
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