<p>The goal of this dissertation is to provide a coherent and computationally feasible basis for the analysis of the dynamics of both housing supply and demand from a microeconomics perspective. The dissertation includes two papers which incorporate unique micro data with new methodological approaches to examine housing market dynamics. The first paper models the development decisions of land owners as a dynamic discrete choice problem to recover the primitives of housing supply. The second paper develops a new methodology for dynamically estimating the demand for durable goods, such as housing, when the choice set is large.</p><p>In the first paper, using the new data set discussed above, I develop and estimate the first dynamic microeconometric model of supply. Parcel owners maximize the discounted sum of expected per-period profits by choosing the optimal time and nature of construction. In addition to current profits, the owners of land also take into account their expectations about future returns to development, balancing expected future prices against expected future costs. This forward looking behavior is crucial in explaining observed aggregate patterns of construction. Finally, the outcomes generated by the parcel owners' profit maximizing behavior, in addition to observable sales prices, allow me to identify the parameters of the per-period profit function at a fine level of geography.</p><p>By modeling the optimal behavior of land owners directly, I can capture important aspects of profits that explain both market volatility and geographic differences in construction rates. In particular, the model captures both the role of expectations and of more abstract costs (such as regulation) in determining the timing and volatility of supply in way that would not be possible using aggregate data. The model returns estimates of the various components of profits: prices, variable costs, and the fixed costs of building, which incorporate both physical and regulatory costs.</p><p>Estimates of the model suggest that changes in the value of the right-to-build are the primary cause of house price appreciation, that the demographic characteristics of existing residents are determinants of the cost environment, and that physical and regulatory costs are pro-cyclical. Finally, using estimates of the profit function, I explain the role of dynamics in determining the timing of supply by distinguishing the effects of expected future cost changes from the effects of expected future price changes. A counterfactual simulation suggest that pro-cyclical costs, combined with forward looking behavior, significantly dampen construction volatility. These results sheds light on one of the empirical puzzles of the housing market - what determines the volatility of housing construction?</p><p>In the second paper, I outline a tractable model of neighborhood choice in a dynamic setting along with a computationally straightforward estimation approach. The approach allows the observed and unobserved features of each neighborhood to evolve in a completely flexible way and uses information on neighborhood choice and the timing of moves to recover semi-parametrically: (i) preferences for housing and neighborhood attributes, (ii) preferences for the performance of the house as a financial asset, and (iii) moving costs. In order to accommodate a number of important features of housing market, this approach extends methods developed in the recent literature on the dynamic demand for durable goods in a number of key ways. The model and estimation approach are applicable to the study of a wide set of dynamic phenomena in housing markets and cities. These include, for example, the analysis of the microdynamics of residential segregation and gentrification within metropolitan areas. More generally, the model and estimation approach can be easily extended to study the dynamics of housing and labor markets in a system of cities.</p> / Dissertation

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Brown University, 2008. / Vita. Advisor : Andrew D. Foster. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 86-91).

<p> This dissertation examines the intergenerational effects of maternal early health, the intergenerational effects of maternal education and the distributional effects of school size. </p><p> Chapter 1 is an introduction that summarizes the contributions made in this dissertation. Chapter 2 examines a new question with important implications: Does a mother's early health affect her child's human capital development? My coauthor and I use two extremely different and established methodologies to identify variation in mothers' early health: variation in early life disease environment and variation in early life economic environment. We connect children to the environments experienced by their mothers using the state, month and year of maternal birth that appears on each child's birth record. To identify children's outcomes later in life, we connect their birth records to their 3^rd through 10^th grade school records using a high quality algorithm that relies on first and last names, exact dates of birth and social security numbers. We find that a one standard deviation improvement in maternal early health improves 10^th grade test performance in the following generation by .07 to .08 standard deviations. </p><p> Chapter 3 examines the intergenerational effects of maternal education. My coauthor and I use variation in compulsory schooling laws across states and over time to identify exogenous variation in maternal education; we estimate local average treatment effects using Two-Stage Least Squares instrumental variables estimations. We connect children to the environments experienced by their mothers using the state, month and year of maternal birth that appears on each child's birth record. To identify children's outcomes later in life, we connect their birth records to their 3^rd through 10^th grade school records using a high quality algorithm that relies on first and last names, exact dates of birth and social security numbers. We find an additional year of maternal education improves 3^rd grade test performance in the following generation by .31 standard deviations on average and that this relationship is driven by children born to white mothers. </p><p> Chapter 4 uses state-wide, student-level data from Illinois to examine the distributional effects of school size. I apply two established strategies to identify variation in school size; I use population-level panels of data to identify year-to-year changes in enrollment within schools and I exploit variation induced by school openings. I find smaller schools simultaneously improve average ACT achievement in 11^th grade and close achievement gaps between more and less advantaged students. Specifically, a 20 percent decrease in school size improves students' ACT performance by 1 percent on average and improves ACT performance by 1.5 percent on average for African American students that receive free or reduced price lunch.</p>

This study utilizes national household income and expenditure data from Honduras, collected by the Honduran Central Bank in 1998--99, to examine two distinct health issues. First a tobit censored regression model is estimated to identify the variables that affect monthly household expenditures on health. This analysis is then used to examine income elasticities for health goods. Secondly, a nested bivariate probit model is used to study the socio-economic and demographic variables that influence a Honduran household's decision to seek health services attention when a household member is acutely ill and, consequently, how they then choose between public and private health services.

The basic idea of this study is to examine the effect of the degree of military control on economic development. It adopts a broad definition of military control (that considers direct and total military rule, as well as indirect and partial levels of military control), and focuses on the influence over the long run. The study articulates eleven interrelated hypotheses in the subject, and tests them utilizing two complementary methodological strategies: A cross-national analysis that applies OLS multiple regression technique on a sample of 138 countries for the period from 1961 to 1990; and a comparative case study of the four North African countries (of Algeria, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia). The findings clearly support the main argument of the study that military control inherent certain characteristics that impedes economic growth (i.e., GDP per capita) over the long run . The negative influence of military control on domestic investment, protection of property rights, and (to a lesser extent) domestic conflict constitute major observable mechanisms for its adverse effect on economic growth. Also, the cross-national findings suggest that military control has no significant influence on social development. However, in some individual cases, like in Algeria and Libya, military control promoted initial social development but failed in building viable political institutions. The evidence of the study suggests that future political inquiry in the subject should do the following: Reconsider the effect of the degree of military control on economic growth, improve the military control measure, and focus on its influence on the financial and economic aspects.

Beginning in 1994, the Federal Communication Commission (FCC) started to use auctions for the allocation of scarce radio spectrum licenses. The spectrum auctions have drawn widespread attention as policy makers and economists are interested in how effectively these auctions can raise revenues while promoting efficient allocations. The first chapter provides a broad survey of the PCS auctions and of the developments in Broadband PCS and cellular industries that relate to the PCS auctions. The survey discuss how technology, geography, policy and the firm's industry circumstances affect firms' valuations of the spectrum and are important determinants of the efficient design of the spectrum auctions, as well. The presence of different types of communications providers, cellular providers, wireline providers, and new PCS providers, in the PCS auctions lead to asymmetries in valuations and information. In theory, this structure has a qualitative affect on common value auction outcomes. In laboratory experiments, bidders are found to overbid, much like the findings in previous common value auction experiments, however, the less informed bidders suffer from much stronger overbidding than the informed bidders, and this overbidding can persist over many periods. In the presence of overbidding, additional public information reduced the seller's average revenues. Experience and feedback diminishes but does not eliminate overbidding. In Chapter 3, bidding data from the Interactive Video and Data Service auction, one of the FCC's earliest spectrum auctions are analyzed. Bidding behavior confirms the hypotheses that (1) the larger the area, given the population, the lower the valuation; (2) the larger the population, the higher the income, and the faster the population grows, the higher the valuation; and (3) the number of bidders, the availability of discounts to some bidders, the earlier in the sequence that an auction occurs all positively influence the amount of the winning bid. In addition, licenses in areas with greater population or in auctions with more participating bidders are more likely to be defaulted. Finally, designated entities who receive a bidding discount are significantly more likely to default.

Generic advertising campaigns promote the general qualities of a product to customers thus improving the demand of all firms who market that product. Recent national campaigns of this nature include the milk advertising campaign "Got Milk?" and the advertising campaign by florists "Think Flowers." The focus of this dissertation is to study, through analytical modeling and an experimental economics perspective, the strategic issues that arise in the organization of such an advertising campaign. We investigate two mechanisms used in practice--Voluntary Contribution Mechanisms (VCMs) and Mandated Contribution Mechanisms (MCMs). In the former, industry members can decide if they want to participate and if so, how much they wish to contribute. Here, the strategic problem relates to achieving complete participation. Specifically, either "free-rider" or "cheap-rider" equilibria obtain, leading to sub-optimal advertising. In order to overcome this, we propose the Provision Point VCM where the campaign is conducted only if contributions exceed a pre-determined threshold. Here, optimal advertising is always a feasible equilibrium. We experimentally investigated the impact of these two VCMs, face-to-face communication and completeness of information on contributions. Managers with experience in such advertising also participated in our study. The findings from the forty four economic experiments were: (1) Simple VCM led to lower efficiency in comparison to Provision Point VCMs. (2) When the provision point was set at the Pareto Optimum, a high efficiency and provision percentage resulted. (3) Communication always led to gains in efficiency. A weak long-term effect was found in the Simple VCM case and a strong long-term effect was found in the Provision Point VCM case. (4) The efficiency in the complete and incomplete information cases for both Simple and Provision Point VCMs were very similar. This is a surprising result. In MCMs, the government stipulates a payment rule by legislation and all industry members must comply. Firms can reduce their share of the advertising budget only by under-stating privately held information, leading to sub-optimal advertising. We design a mechanism that overcomes this by ensuring that truthful information revelation is the dominant strategy for all firms.

This dissertation examines the impact of network effects in two settings--the computer software markets and self-employment decisions by individuals. Although there have been strong developments on the theory of network effects, relatively little empirical work has been done to examine their importance. The first part of this dissertation focuses on network effects in the market for computer software. It has been hypothesized that the presence of network effects in this market might often lead to lock-in of an inferior technology. An indirect test of this hypothesis is devised by taking advantage of a natural experiment afforded by the introduction of the programming language, Java. Java made it possible for programmers to write a single program that would run on any operating system. It therefore had the potential to eliminate the indirect network externalities in the operating systems market. Hedonic price regressions with fixed time and firm effects are estimated to test for the effect of Java on the extent of competition in the software market. Results using data compiled from magazine reviews of graphics applications programs indicate that Java was successful in creating more competition in the market for software applications. The second part of this dissertation examines whether social networks might explain the persistent racial gap in Self-Employment (SE) rates in the United States. Self-employment rates in the United States fell dramatically for most of the twentieth century before starting to increase in the 1970's. The racial gap in self-employment rates however, remained constant throughout this period. Many theories have been proposed in the literature but none of them successfully explains the persistence of the gap. A multinomial logit specification is used to model individual decisions to become self-employed. The average SE rate in the neighborhood is used as a measure of the network effect. Results indicate that social networks played an important role in promoting self-employment among blacks since 1950. Given the initial conditions of lower SE rates among blacks, the role of social networks in promoting SE might be able to explain the persistence of the racial gap in SE rates.

Most studies of higher education examine the university as either economically determined--relying on Louis Althusser's notion of ideological state apparatuses--or culturally determined--embracing either traditional or multicultural approaches. Alternatively, this dissertation blends postcolonial and Marxist theories to show that the U.S. public research university responds to the historical exigencies of a multivalent and dynamic political economy. I trace the evolution of this university system in conjunction with changes in the capitalist political economy and focus on the construction and reconstruction of the professional as the site of individual and collective agency. Chapters One and Two historicize the U.S. public research university system and argue that it has always been a vital component of the capitalist political economy. While the popular narrative of public higher education emphasizes civic preparation and upward mobility, these chapters demonstrate that supposedly egalitarian policies like the Morrill Land-Grant Act and the GI Bill serve the changing interests of capitalism. Such legislation forges and enables a university-produced professional class that functions both ideologically and structurally to facilitate transitions in the capitalist political economy. Mapping economic and cultural globalization onto the university system, Chapter Three discusses how contemporary university professionalization contributes to new methods for producing surplus value. Chapter Four examines how the U.S. public research university model circulates outside the United States, changing the global political economy as well as the production of surplus value in its wake. Focusing on a range of U.S. public research universities, I argue that the rhetoric and structure of mission statements move overseas through supranational organizations such as the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and becomes implemented through policies attached to World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) loans. To conclude, Chapter Five develops specific strategies for the professional who opposes the capitalist logic of this global university system. Informed by Marxists scholars, like Althusser and Antonio Gramsci, critical pedagogues such as Paulo Freire, Peter McLaren, and Paula Allman, as well as the U.S. Third World politics of Chela Sandoval, Gayatri Spivak, and Edward Said, this chapter proposes concrete options for engaging and redirecting globalization.

Thousands of acres of irrigated farmland in rural Arizona have been purchased recently with the hope of transporting the associated water to cities. Many Arizonans believe that this "water farming" can solve Arizona's water supply problems. Others, however, fear that water transfers will have serious adverse effects on the areas of origin. To evaluate the effects of transfers, their path must be traced through the regional economy and environment. This requires sophisticated modeling and detailed data. It is possible, however, to make interregional comparisons with much less data, contrasting regional sensitivity to particular categories of effects. The most important are economic, fiscal, environmental, and limitations on future development potential. In this research, indices of relative sensitivity to economic and fiscal effects of water farming are constructed based on readily available secondary data. The values for these indices are calculated for four Arizona counties: Paz, Maricopa, Pima, and Pinal.