Moroccan manufacturing firms generally choose to incorporate under one of two legal forms: ‘Société Anonyme’ (SA) and ‘Société À Responsibilité Limitée’ (SARL). This thesis is about that choice and its consequence for firms’ access to bank overdraft facilities. In 2001, Morocco made a radical change to its company law regime: it replaced a company law dating from 19th-century France with modern standards of corporate governance and accountability. In Chapter One, I use the two-period FACS/ICA panel to analyse that reform and to evaluate its impact upon manufacturing firms’ access to bank credit. I find that the reform induced a substantial share of SA firms to switch to SARL, and that — relative to firms remaining in the SA status — this caused a significant and substantial withdrawal of bank overdraft facilities. In Chapter Two, I develop a theoretical model in which an agent signals its continuous type by using a variable that may take one of only two values (a ‘binary signal’); this is intended to represent a firm’s choice of legal status. I show that this binary signal provides only ‘coarse information’, and I consider the consequences of this coarseness; I solve for equilibrium conditions and I consider both the role of a principal’s risk aversion and the role of other observable agent characteristics (‘indices’). Chapter Three uses the results of Chapter Two to develop a new structural methodology for the separate identification of information and incentive effects. I apply the method to the data used in Chapter One, on the subset of firms having an overdraft facility in both survey periods (approximately two-thirds of the total sample). I find that, among that limited sample, there is no relevant information asymmetry. I estimate the potential welfare loss and conclude that, in the 95% confidence region of potential information effects and incentive effects, the maximum median welfare loss from information asymmetry is equivalent to approximately only 3% of the median bank overdraft limit. For the sample of firms having an overdraft facility in both survey periods, this challenges the common narrative that information asymmetry is an important reason for bank credit market failure.

This thesis presents three core chapters examining different aspects of the relationship between natural resources and economic development. While addressing different questions they share several features in common: a concern with causal inference; overcoming the challenges of endogeneity between resource abundance and other characteristics of developing countries; and the use of new and novel datasets with spatially identified units of analysis. The work contributes to a rich and growing empirical literature seeking to deepen our understanding of the underlying mechanisms affecting the fortunes of resource-abundant countries. In the introductory chapter I discuss the extensive literature on this topic and in particular focus on the new generation of well-identified within-country studies, seeking to understand the empirical relationship between resources and economic development. Countries typically welcome the news of a resource discovery with joy and indeed, resource discoveries hold great economic potential. But what determines whether a country is resource rich or not? Is it more than just a chance finding, or good geology? In Chapter 2, entitled Institutions and the Location of Oil Exploration I present an investigation into this question. I examine the relationship between governance and choices of where to drill for oil. This work utilises a new dataset on exploration wells and looks at the distribution of drilling close to national borders. This allows me to identify estimates for the effect of differences in governance between neighbours. Two times out of three, investors choose to drill on the side of borders that are better governed, all other things being equal. This suggests that resource-wealth itself may be contingent on factors beyond geology, and indeed may be endogenous to the process of development. In Chapter 3, entitled The Local Effects of Resource Extraction, I turn my attention to the local economic consequences of industrial mining in Indonesia. I present a simple three-sector general equilibrium model to generate predictions for the local labour market, akin to the Corden-Neary Dutch disease model of the macroeconomy. I test the predicted effects in response to an exogenous resource sector shock by looking at mine opening or mine expansion events across three hundred mines. I test the predictions of the model, first by estimating the economic footprint from industrial mining; found to be an average of fifteen kilometre radius. I then examine the response of reported labour market activity from households surveyed in nearby communities. Here I find no evidence for a shift of local labour into the mining sector. I do find however a notable movement of labour from the traded sectors (agriculture and manufacturing) to the non-traded service sector, with a strong effect for foreign-owned mines versus domestic ones. Chapter 4, entitled Disentangling the Effects of Resource Extraction: Local Government and Investment Multipliers, examines the oil and gas boom in Indonesia from 1999-2009. Here I deploy a variety of identification strategies to attempt to disentangle the regional effects of the boom, measured in terms of district GDP. I estimate effects arising from transfers of revenue to local government. Using an instrumental variable approach I isolate the fiscal channel from resource projects. I find a positive and significant effect of increased local government revenues on district GDP over the boom decade. I then examine the spillovers from resource projects, isolating them from fiscal transfers. For districts neighbouring resource rich districts I find evidence for a modest positive effect arising from project investments, rather than fiscal transfers. In Chapter 5 I present concluding thoughts and discuss a future research agenda. I also summarise the burgeoning landscape of resource data available for within country and spatially identified studies and offer some thoughts on how this might evolve.

This thesis presents three chapters on the subject of unemployment persistence. Two of the chapters are empirically focussed and the other is a purely theoretic work. Unemployment persistence is defined as the existence of serial correlation in individual employment outcomes. The first chapter finds evidence for unemployment persistence among men and women in the Australian youth labour market. Individual labour market dynamics are analysed using the Australian Longitudinal Survey. The analytic framework used is a Random Effects Probit model, incorporating lagged employment status as an explanatory variable status. Results support a “scarring” effect of unemployment upon individuals’ future employment prospects. The second chapter provides decision-theoretic foundations for unemployment persistence, based upon heterogeneous intrinsic productivity among workers. A representative firm is assumed to receive an imperfectly precise signal of worker ability every period, and re-forms its beliefs every period using a Bayesian updating method. A model of the dynamic behaviour of optimal employment decisions by the firm is constructed. It is shown that under certain circumstances workers of all productivities may be “scarred” in the eyes of the firm by past unemployment, due to the firm’s being unwilling to hire from an unemployment pool of dubious quality. The third chapter presents a detailed investigation into how to measure unemployment persistence within the UK. The chapter presents several modelling strategies capable of being used to analyse panel data of a binary nature, and discusses how to decide which methods are most appropriate in particular environments. Panel data on men from the British Household Panel Survey are used to estimate a structural state dependence equation in employment status, where lagged employment status is used as an explanatory variable. Particular attention is given to controlling for unobserved heterogeneity between individuals. The empirical results indicate strong evidence of unemployment persistence.

This thesis uses nonparametric revealed preference methods to derive new tests for consistency with models of consumer behaviour, and discuss the implications for welfare analysis. Chapter 1 demonstrates how to conduct revealed preference analysis when prices, and hence budget constraints, are only partially observed. This chapter extends the revealed preference results of Crawford and Polisson (2015), derived for the static case, to dynamic settings, allowing for storability of goods. Necessary and sufficient conditions for consistency with intertemporal models are derived, which do not require the researcher to distinguish between corner solutions and unavailability of the good, or to impute prices. Chapter 2 discusses the validity of using reported happiness measures as proxies of utility or social welfare, by testing for consistency between revealed and reported preference orderings in Japanese household survey data. Although the expenditure behaviour of most households is consistent with standard models of utility maximisation, it is generally inconsistent with the preference ordering given by their reported happiness. This inconsistency is likely due to reporting error in the happiness measure, and suggests that happiness and utility are empirically distinct and noninterchangeable. Chapter 3 investigates the effect of price inattention on inflation misperceptions and cost-of-living indices, by developing a behavioural model in which consumers only notice price changes above a certain threshold. A data application, using supermarket scanner data, demonstrates that this model generates plausible results; in particular, consumers have more accurate perceptions of inflation during periods of high or volatile inflation, but may substantially misperceive inflation when it is low. These results have important implications for conducting welfare analysis when consumers are not fully attentive to price changes.

This dissertation consists of four related, sole-authored chapters. It considers the microeconomic mechanisms for gains from trade in the presence of quality investments by firms. It shows within the framework of a quality-augmented heterogeneous firms model that the quality dimension matters for welfare gains from trade. It also provides novel empirical evidence on adjustment mechanisms of aggregate quality as a consequence of globalization. To the best of my knowledge, this is the first contribution to provide a comprehensive analysis of the role of endogenous product quality in the determination of gains from trade. I first offer an explanation for observed industry heterogeneity in trade-induced productivity gains and show that results depend on whether or not firms have the option to invest in quality. I then take a broader view of welfare gains from trade, looking beyond productivity improvements. I find that globalization can imply a quality-variety trade-off when consumer quality preference is strong - a finding which holds under firm heterogeneity and symmetry. Nevertheless, overall gains from trade are positive. With quality being itself an important channel for gains from trade, I also investigate the detailed mechanisms by which aggregate quality changes as a consequence of globalization. This is done within the same theoretical heterogeneous firms framework as well as empirically using firm-level export data matched with firm-level quality ratings. I argue that firm heterogeneity matters for gains from trade by giving rise to an additional welfare channel in the presence of variable elasticity of demand preferences: high quality firms expand sales disproportionately in a larger market, thereby raising aggregate quality. This theoretical prediction is confirmed by the data. Furthermore, I study the mechanisms for gains from trade in a symmetric firms version of the baseline model. This allows me to isolate the role of firm heterogeneity in driving earlier results. In addition, I analyse the efficiency properties of the market equilibrium for the symmetric firms case.

This thesis explores the use of observational microdata in cost-effectiveness analysis. The application of econometric methods adjusting for selection bias is first reviewed and critically appraised in the economic evaluation literature using a structured template. Limitations of identified studies include lack of good quality evidence regarding the performance of different analytical approaches; inadequate assessment of the sensitivity of their results to violations of fundamental assumptions or variations to crucial estimator parameters; failure to combine the cost and effectiveness outcomes in a summary measure; and no consideration of stochastic uncertainty for the purpose of evaluating cost-effectiveness. Data from the Birthplace national cohort study are used in an attempt to address these limitations in the context of an empirical comparison of estimators relying on regression, matching, as well as the propensity score. It is argued that although these methods cannot address the potential impact of unobservable confounding, a novel approach to bias-corrected matching, combining entropy balancing with seemingly unrelated regression, still has the potential to offer important advantages in terms of analytical robustness. The net economic benefit is proposed as a straightforward way to exploit the strengths of rigorous econometric methodology in the development of reliable and informative cost-effectiveness analyses.

Why do we observe such dramatic differences in labour productivity across countries in the macro data? This thesis argues that the growth empirics literature oversimplifies the complexity of the production process across countries and neglects data cross-section and time-series properties, leading to bias in the empirical estimates. Chapter 1 presents two general empirical frameworks for cross-country productivity analysis and demonstrates that they encompass the growth empirics literature of the past decades. We introduce our central argument of cross-country heterogeneity in the impact of observables and unobservables on output and develop this against the background of the pertinent time-series and cross-section properties of macro panel data. Chapter 2 uses data from 48 countries to estimate manufacturing production functions. We discuss standard and novel estimators, focusing on their treatment of parameter heterogeneity and data time-series and cross-section properties. We develop the Augmented Mean Group (AMG) estimator and show its similarity to the Pesaran (2006) Common Correlated Effects (CCE) approach. Our results confirm parameter heterogeneity across countries in the impact of observable inputs on output. We check the robustness of this finding and highlight its implications for empirical measures of TFP. Chapter 3 investigates the heterogeneity of agricultural production technology using data for 128 countries. We develop an extension to the CCE estimators which allows us to suggest that TFP is structured such that countries with similar agro-climatic environment are influenced by the same unobserved factors. This finding offers a possible explanation for the failure of technology-transfer from advanced countries of the temperate 'North' to developing countries of the arid/equatorial 'South'. Our Monte Carlo simulations in Chapter 4 investigate the performance of the AMG, CCE and standard (micro-)panel estimators. Failure to account for cross-section dependence is shown to result in serious distortion of the empirical estimates. We highlight scenarios in which the AMG is biased and offer simple remedies.

This thesis consists of three papers that makes independent contributions to the fields of forecast evaluation and financial econometrics. As such, the papers, chapter 1-3, can be read independently of each other. In Chapter 1, “Inferring an agent’s loss function based on a term structure of forecasts”, we provide conditions for identification, estimation and inference of an agent’s loss function based on an observed term structure of point forecasts. The loss function specification is flexible as we allow the preferences to be both asymmetric and to vary non-linearly across the forecast horizon. In addition, we introduce a novel forecast rationality test based on the estimated loss function. We employ the approach to analyse the U.S. Government’s preferences over budget surplus forecast errors. Interestingly, we find that it is relatively more costly for the government to underestimate the budget surplus and that this asymmetry is stronger at long forecast horizons. In Chapter 2, “Monitoring Systemic Risk”, we define systemic risk as the conditional probability of a systemic banking crisis. This conditional probability is modelled in a fixed effect binary response panel-model framework that allows for cross-sectional dependence (e.g. due to contagion effects). In the empirical application we identify several risk factors and it is shown that the level of systemic risk contains a predictable component which varies through time. Furthermore, we illustrate how the forecasts of systemic risk map into dynamic policy thresholds in this framework. Finally, by conducting a pseudo out-of-sample exercise we find that the systemic risk estimates provided reliable early-warning signals ahead of the recent financial crisis for several economies. Finally, in Chapter 3, “Equity Premium Predictability”, we reassess the evidence of out-of- sample equity premium predictability. The empirical finance literature has identified several financial variables that appear to predict the equity premium in-sample. However, Welch & Goyal (2008) find that none of these variables have any predictive power out-of-sample. We show that the equity premium is predictable out-of-sample once you impose certain shrinkage restrictions on the model parameters. The approach is motivated by the observation that many of the proposed financial variables can be characterised as ’weak predictors’ and this suggest that a James-Stein type estimator will provide a substantial risk reduction. The out-of-sample explanatory power is small, but we show that it is, in fact, economically meaningful to an investor with time-invariant risk aversion. Using a shrinkage decomposition we also show that standard combination forecast techniques tends to ’overshrink’ the model parameters leading to suboptimal model forecasts.

This thesis explores three major issues in the burgeoning empirical literature on the determinants of subjective well-being (SWB). While economic theory assumes that it is current consumption that matters to SWB, empirical work has focused almost exclusively on the effect of income. In Part 1, we use household panel data from Russia and Britain to show that neither the standard theoretical account, nor the standard empirical practice may be adequate. Consumption, income, and wealth each contribute separately to SWB, in particular via perceptions of status and anticipation of the future; and omitting consumption from SWB equations significantly understates the importance of money to SWB. Distinguishing between consumption and income is also important to identifying reference effects. In Part 2, we confirm earlier findings that others' income has a positive (informational) effect on SWB in Russia, but show that others' consumption has an offsetting negative (comparison) effect. The net effect depends on how we define individuals' reference groups. We develop a novel econometric model that lets us estimate these reference groups from the data. Contrary to previous results, we conclude that comparison dominates information. Most SWB analyses focus on the average effects of money, relationships, and other outcomes across a given population; yet there may be significant differences in what is important to different people. In Part 3, we employ parametric and semi-parametric random coefficient models to show that there are large differences in the determinants of individual SWB in Britain, and (in contrast to previous work) that such differences cannot simply be attributed to differences in individuals' reporting functions. While individual differences correlate with (some) observable demographic variables, they do not generally correlate with individuals' perceptions about what is important to them. The results of SWB research may therefore be a useful source of information.

This thesis consists of two parts: Part I (Chapters 2 and 3) critically assesses a set of methodological tools that are widely used in the literature and that are applied to the empirical analysis in Part II (Chapters 4 and 5). Using a randomised experiment, the first chapter compares pen-and-paper interviewing (PAPI) with computer-assisted personal interviewing (CAPI). We observe a large error count in PAPI, which is likely to introduce sample bias. We examine the effect of PAPI consumption measurement error on poverty analysis and compare both applications in terms of interview length, costs and respondents’ perceptions. Next, we formalise an unproven source of ordinary least squares estimation bias in standard linear-in-means peer effects models. Deriving a formula for the magnitude of the bias, we discuss its underlying parameters. We show when the bias is aggravated in models adding cluster fixed effects and how it affects inference and interpretation of estimation results. We reveal that two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimation strategies eliminate the bias and provide illustrative simulations. The results may explain some counter-intuitive findings in the social interaction literature. We then use the linear-in-means model to estimate endogenous peer effects on the awareness of a community-based development programme of vulnerable groups in rural Tanzania. We denote the geographically nearest neighbours set as the relevant peer group in this context and employ a popular 2SLS estimation strategy on a unique spatial household dataset, collected using CAPI, to identify significant average and heterogeneous endogenous peer effects. The final chapter investigates social network effects in decentralised food aid (free food and food for work) allocation processes in Ethiopia, in the aftermath of a serious drought. We find that food aid is responsive to need, as well as being targeted at households with less access to informal support. However, we also find strong correlations with political connections, especially in the immediate aftermath of the drought.