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This thesis investigates the profitability of the momentum strategy in the Swedish stock market. The momentum strategy is an investment strategy where past winners are bought and past losers are sold short. In this paper Swedish stocks are analyzed during the period 1999 – 2007 with the approach first used by Jegadeesh and Titman (1993). The results indicate that momentum investing is profitable on the Swedish market. The main contribution to the profits is derived from investing in winners while the losers in most cases do not contribute at all to total profits. The profits remain after correcting for transaction costs for longer termed strategies while they diminish for the shorter termed ones. Compared to the market index, buying past winners yield an excess return while short selling of losers tend to make index investing more profitable. The analysis also shows that momentum can not be explained by the systematic risk of the individual stocks. The evidence in support of a momentum effect presented in this thesis also implies that predictable price patterns can be used to make excess returns; this contradicts the efficient market hypothesis.

This thesis investigates whether or not changes in a country’s government debt could affect its domestic stock market performance. The relationship is investigated by examining three different European countries, Germany, Portugal and Sweden, on the basis of two variables; (1) quarterly government debt changes as a percentage of gross domestic product and (2) the quarterly stock market changes over the time period2000:Q2 – 2011:Q2. The evidence is presented with help of Ordinary Least Square Method and Granger Causality test for each respective country. According to the Efficient Market Hypothesis, stock market prices should fully reflect all relevant information, e.g. government debt changes, as soon as they occur, without any delay, if the market is efficient. Past information should be insignificant and therefore not affect the stock market prices in an efficient market. In the cases of Sweden and Germany, the results proved to be ambiguous and thus do not allow for either rejection or acceptance of the Efficient Market Hypothesis with respect to government debt changes. However, some support was found in the case of Germany since the government debt changes and the stock market performance were instantaneously correlated. The empirical results presented in this thesis further allowed for the assumption that Portugal was not able to efficiently capture changes in the debt levels without any delay. This indicates that the Efficient Market Hypothesis can be rejected in regards for Portugal with respect to government debt changes. Furthermore, since the Portuguese stock market performance was not able to capture efficiently changes in the government debt level, it hence could possibly mislead the direction of the economy when looking into the stock prices to determine economic conditions. Moreover, the results imply that each country faces different relationships between the variables and that the relationships possibly could depend on the economic health of a country.

Momentum, or the basic idea of the momentum effect in finance, is that there is a tendency for rising asset prices to continue rising, while the falling prices continue to fall. As such, a momentum strategy is based on the idea that previous returns will predict future returns. In order to follow this line of thought, a momentum strategy is generally based on buying past winners and taking short positions in past losers. This quantitative study addresses the phenomenon of momentum crashes, which is a moment in time when a momentum strategy fails, and past losers outperform past winners. In our study we are setting out to study the momentum crash phenomenon during the years of 2006-2012 on NASDAQ OMX Stockholm, focusing specifically on the Small- and Large Cap segments. As we intend to explore the concept of momentum crashes as thoroughly as possible, we will also be researching momentum itself during this time period, as these two concepts are inevitably intertwined. In order to do this, we will be applying commonly used portfolio construction methods used in previous momentum research. These portfolios will be based on past winners and past losers, and their performance will then be tracked for different lengths of time, which will allow us to identify points in time where momentum crashes have occurred. What we found in our research was that, while we gathered data indicative of momentum trends during our chosen time period, we could not prove that momentum existed to any statistically meaningful degree. As for momentum crashes, we identified many different points in time where the past-loser portfolios outperformed the past-winner portfolios, thus resulting in negative winner-minus-loser portfolios and momentum crashes. The most interesting aspect of these findings was that the highest frequencies of momentum crashes were found in the years of 2008 and 2009, where we made the most negative winner-minus-loser portfolio observations. This finding is in line with similar research on other populations, as momentum crashes are theorized to occur at a higher frequency during times of market stress and high volatility. Furthermore, we also made some interesting connections between our findings and behavioral finance; we identified certain patterns which could be indicative of a relationship between the two. As for the research gap and the ultimate contribution of this study, we have increased the knowledge, understanding and awareness of momentum crashes in Sweden, and we have shown during which times these are likely to occur in a Swedish context. Additionally, we have also increased the general knowledge of momentum by exploring it from a Swedish perspective.

Thesis (M.B.A.)--University of North Carolina Wilmington, 2008. / Includes appendices. Title from PDF title page (viewed May 27, 2009) Includes bibliographical references (p. 56-58)

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Michigan State University. Dept. of Economics, 2008. / Title from PDF t.p. (viewed on July 22, 2009) Includes bibliographical references (p. 138-157). Also issued in print.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--City University, London, 1989. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 262-279).

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Memphis State University, 1991. / Typescript (photocopy). Includes bibliographical reference.

Thesis (Ph . D.)--Andhra University, 1994. / Includes bibliographical references.