Εξετάζεται με χρήση του προγράμματος σε Η/Υ PRAO, η δυνατότητα αντιμετώπισης των προβλημάτων αύξησης των ηλεκτρικών φορτίων την προσεχή δεκαπενταετία (έτος 2008 εως 2023) στην ευρύτερη περιοχή της πόλης της Πάτρας που αποτελείται από το αστικό τμήμα των Δήμων Πάτρας και Ρίου. / -

The restructuring of the electric energy market and the proliferation of intermittent renewable-energy based power generation have introduced serious challenges to power system operation emanating from the uncertainties introduced to the system variables (electricity prices, congestion levels etc.). In order to economically operate the system and efficiently run the energy market, a statistical analysis of the system variables under uncertainty is needed. Such statistical analysis can be performed through an estimation of the statistical moments of these variables. In this thesis, the Point Estimate Methods (PEMs) are applied to the optimal power flow (OPF) problem to estimate the statistical moments of the locational marginal prices (LMPs) and total generation cost under system uncertainty. An extensive mathematical examination and risk analysis of existing PEMs are performed and a new PEM scheme is introduced. The applied PEMs consist of two schemes introduced by H.P. Hong, namely, the 2n and 2n+1 schemes, and a proposed combination between Hong's and M. E Harr's schemes. The accuracy of the applied PEMs in estimating the statistical moments of system LMPs is illustrated and the performance of the suggested combination of Harr's and Hong's PEMs is shown. Moreover, the risks of the application of Hong's 2n scheme to the OPF problem are discussed by showing that it can potentially yield inaccurate LMP estimates or run into unfeasibility of the OPF problem. In addition, a new PEM configuration is also introduced. This configuration is derived from a PEM introduced by E. Rosenblueth. It can accommodate asymmetry and correlation of input random variables in a more computationally efficient manner than its Rosenblueth's counterpart. / Master of Science

Orientador: Carlos Alberto de Castro Junior / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Eletrica e de Computação / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-06T19:37:05Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Gomes_RicardoBorges_M.pdf: 725231 bytes, checksum: e24b9811f14e33910092b2f639a89050 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2006 / Resumo: O método desacoplado rápido (MDR) [2] é uma variante do tradicional método de Newton [1] para a resolução do problema de fluxo de carga (obtenção do estado de operação de redes elétricas de potência). Sabe-se que o MDR apresenta desempenho insatisfatório quando aplicado a redes de distribuição, devido à desfavorável relação r/x dos ramos, resultando num processo de cálculo que pode apresentar divergência ou convergência lenta (grande número de iterações). Há algum tempo foi proposta uma alteração no MDR, chamada de rotação de eixos[4], que melhora as características de convergência do método. A idéia consiste em obter uma rede fictícia para a qual o MDR funcione bem e cujo estado de operação (magnitudes e ângulos de tensão) seja o mesmo da rede original. O valor do ângulo de rotação de eixos, único para toda a rede, é determinado empiricamente. Recentemente uma outra proposta de rotação ótima de eixos[5] foi apresentada, sugerindo modificações ao método que trouxeram maior automação aos cálculos, apesar de efeitos desfavoráveis em relação à manipulação de matrizes e ao significado físico da rede elétrica durante o processo iterativo. O presente trabalho traz um novo algoritmo de rotação de eixos que supera algumas desvantagens dos métodos apresentados em [4, 5], com bom desempenho. Além disso, traz uma interessante contribuição sobre a rotação de barras do tipo PV, não abordado anteriormente / Abstract: The fast decoupled loadflow (FDLF) [2] is a variant of the traditional Newton method [1] for solving the loadflow problem (find the operational state of electrical power networks). It is well-known that FDLF presents unsatisfactory performance when applied to distribution systems. Their unfavourable r/x branch ratios may lead to divergence or slow convergence (large number of iterations). A modification to the FDLF, called axesrotation[4], was proposed some time ago, which improves convergency of the method. The idea is to obtain a fictitious network for which the FDLF performs better and which operational state (voltage magnitudes and angles) is the same as the original network. However, the rotation angle is determined empirically. Recently the optimal axes rotation[5] was presented, suggesting some modifications that led to more automated calculations, despite of some undesirable effects on matrices handling and also to the physical meaning of networks during the iterative process. This research work presents a new algorithm for axes rotation that overcomes some disadvantages found in [4, 5], with good performance. Moreover, it brings an interesting contribution on the rotation of PV buses, not previously considered. / Mestrado / Energia Eletrica / Mestre em Engenharia Elétrica