Managing a sustainable built environment with a large number of buildings rests on the ability to assess and improve the performance of the building stock over time. Building stock models are cornerstones to the assessment of the combined impact of energy-related building interventions across different spatial and temporal scales. However, such models, particularly those accounting for both physical formulation and social behaviors of the underlying buildings, are still in their infancy. This research strives to more thoroughly examine how buildings perform aggregately in energy usage by focusing on how to tackled three major technical challenges: (1) quantifying building energy performance in an objective and scalable manner, (2) mapping building stock model space to real-world data space, and (3) quantifying and evaluating energy intervention behaviors of a building stock. This thesis hypothesizes that a new paradigm of aggregation of large-scale building stocks can lead to (1) an accurate and efficient intervention analysis model and (2) a functionally comprehensive decision support tool for building stock energy intervention analysis. Specifically, this thesis presents three methodologies. To address the first challenge, this thesis develops a normative building physical energy model that can rapidly estimate single building energy performance with respect to its design and operational characteristics. To address the second challenge, the thesis proposes a statistical procedure using regression and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling techniques that inverse-estimate building parameters based on building stock energy consumption survey data. The outcomes of this statistical procedure validate the approach of using prototypical buildings for two types of intervention analysis: energy retrofit and demand response. These two cases are implemented in an agent-based modeling and simulation (ABMS) framework to tackle the third challenge. This thesis research contributes to the body of knowledge pertaining to building energy modeling beyond the single building scale. The proposed framework can be used by energy policy makers and utilities for the evaluation of energy retrofit incentives and demand-response program economics.

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published_or_final_version / Environmental Management / Master / Master of Science in Environmental Management

published_or_final_version / Environmental Management / Master / Master of Science in Environmental Management

Set in the context of the problems the UK has experienced in achieving effective economic policies, focusing primarily on the role of the civil service, the thesis examines the development and implementation of energy conservation policy, in the UK, from the mid-1970s until April 1992, concentrating mainly on the 1980s. Changes since April 1992 and the prospects for energy conservation in the remainder of the 1990s are considered briefly in the final chapter and conclusion. The thesis uses energy conservation as a case study to explore general theories of policy development and implementation. Comparisons are made with Japan and Denmark. In the case of Japan, the comparison is set in the context of Japanese economic success and the role of the Ministry of International Trade and Industry. In the case of Denmark, the context is the planning system and the role of local government. The thesis examines the relative importance of systems of administration and other factors including: prevailing ideological orthodoxies; the roles of policy communities and networks. The title - "Procedure over purpose" - reflects several themes within the thesis including: the differences between procedure and purpose governed states; the relevance of the 1980s and 1990s civil service reforms to procedure or purpose driven policy areas. A further important theme is efficiency, both in terms of the emphasis on efficiency in civil service reforms and because of a change of terminology from energy conservation to energy efficiency during the period under study. Conclusions are drawn on the extent to which development and implementation of energy conservation policy in the UK has been governed more by procedure than a sense of purpose; how far this differs from other countries (primarily Japan and Denmark); its effect on the UK's achievement of energy savings up to the late 1980s; and the implications for policy success or failure.

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