The purpose of this study is to analyse the development of South Africa's liquid fuels industry from 1930s to the present and the various ways in which the state has extended subsidies and other measures of support to liquid fuels producers. The nature and extent of government support to the South African liquid fuels industry has remained hidden for many years, due to the veil of secrecy surrounding the industry prior to the country's transition to democracy. The study expands past analyses to identify and estimate the magnitude of subsidies to liquid fuels production in South Africa in the present. Using the historical institutional approach, the study then places these measures of support in the South African political economy environment so as to understand the institutional barriers to their reform. In doing so, the study sheds light on the drivers informing the endurance of the liquid fuels subsidy regime and state support to the liquid fuels industry following the transition to democracy.

The industrial sector is the main energy user in South Africa, using about half the national total, and compared to most other industrialised countries South Africa has a high in_dustrial energy intensity, thus necessitating improved industrial energy management. The malt brewing industry was chosen as a case study industry to illustrate the potential for improved energy management in industry. Ohlsson's brewery in Cape Town was analysed in detail and energy management improvements identified for that brewery were ·expanded to include the malt brewing industry in general, by comparing Ohlsson's brewery to other breweries in South Africa. It was found that energy requirements at Ohlsson's Brewery could be reduced by 12-20%, by the implementation of economically feasible energy management schemes. However, mainly because of discrepancies in coal prices between Ohlsson's Brewery and most other breweries in South Africa, energy requirements for the brewing industry in general can be reduced by 7-13%. This translates to be a monetary saving of R242 000-R486 000/month, which is evenly spread between coal, electricity, and maximum demand savings. No single large energy saving scheme was identified, but the potential. savings are due to a number of schemes. The potential energy savings identified in this study exclude the savings as a result of the implementation of process sensitive schemes, which were considered beyond the scope of this study. Nevertheless some process sensitive schemes, associated with boiling in the brewhouse, could result in substantial savings. The energy usage target identified for South African breweries is higher than current energy requiiements for breweries in the Britain and Germany when climatic and operational constraints are taken into account. This is because Britain and Germany have higher energy costs relative to production costs, government incentive schemes for reducing energy usage, and more stringent environmental legislation often necessitating the recovery of brewhouse vapours.

Includes bibliographical references (leaves 132-135). / Integrated resource planning aims to fulfil electricity requirements with supply and demand resources. Least cost resources are optimised as supply expansions compete with measures to modify the load in meeting energy services. A demand side study is conducted to determine representative load profiles for electricity use within South Africa. Analysis of electricity consumption us in g load profiles of each sector ' s end-use electrical loads is essential for determining the appropriate supply technologies as well as the impact of demand side management and energy efficiency measures . A supply side study considers all existing and future power generation options required for expected electricity growth and system load characteristics. Energy model, TIMES, provides time-slices for adequate load profile representation TIMES is a Partial Dynamic Equilibrium Model as constraints are placed on the investment, usage and availability of technologies. All optimisations are for the least cost to the system. Demand and supply options are integrated into a single plan using the TIMES model and the supply expansion plan is changed when demand reduction targets are achieved using DSM and EE. The base case us in g a business-as-usual approach is compared with a low and medium impact DSM and EE scenario. Demand resources are estimated from the industrial, commercial and residential economic sectors. The scope of the plan is 22 years and there is full utilisation of all existing supply capacity with small amounts of decommissioning. Mothballed power stations are recommissioned initially. Peak-load plants are needed from 2007 and OCGT are selected using natural gas or LNG. Intermediate-load capacity is needed by 2011 using CCGT. Base-load capacity demands are met using new coal PF power stations in 2014. FBC stations using discard coal begin operation in 2016. The capacity expansion plan anticipates 2. 93GW of OCGT, 2.5 GW of CCGT, 7. 2GW of coal PF, 2. 8 GW of FBC plants and 2 GW of pump storage stations to be in use by 2020. Imported hydroelectric capacity of0.9 G W and PBMR capacity of3 GW is expected to be commissioned by 2024. Approximately 4 % less installed capacity is needed when a medium impact DSM and EE strategy is implemented. The marginal cost of energy gradually increases from 0. 06 R/kWh in 2002 to 0. 175 R/kWh in 2016 and to 0.325 R/kWh in 2024 as supply capacity is added. Compound load profiles from all national electricity usage provide an effective means whereby appropriate supply technologies are selected whilst incorporating load modifications due to DSM and EE.

Energy use is the human activity responsible for the majority of its greenhouse gas emissions. In 2010 the global energy-related emissions of carbon dioxide - the principal greenhouse gas-jumped by 5.3% from the previous year, to a record 30.4 gigatonnes (IEA 2011a). The International Energy Agency (2011) has projected that the world's primary energy demand could increase by 33% and that energy related CO2 emissions will increase by 20% to 36.4 Gt between 2010 and 2035 (IEA 2011a). South Africa is one of the most energy intensive countries in the world, measured as GHG emissions per Gross Domestic Product produced. South Africa's energy intensiveness is a result of the energy intensive nature of a number of its key industries. The mineral industry is one such industry. It plays a crucial role in South Africa's economy and is the largest industry in its primary economic sector (Chamber of Mines 2010). Energy efficiency has been identified as one of the cheapest and most effective measures to reduce energy consumption and its associated greenhouse gas emissions. The Long Term Mitigation Scenarios coordinated by the University of Cape Town's Energy Research Centre identified that South Africa's industrial sector had cumulatively the greatest potential to reduce its GHG emissions through improved energy efficiency, ahead of the commercial, residential or transport sectors(Winkler 2007). South Africa's continued reliance on unsustainable energy production, particularly coal, increases the need for maximising energy efficiency to mitigate resource consumption and the GHG emissions associated with the production and use of fossil fuel generated energy. This project aims to identify and holistically evaluate the potential opportunities that exist for the reduction of energy and climate footprints of South Africa's gold industry sub-sector, with the aim of providing guidance to both government and industry for a path towards a more energy efficient industry with lower associated GHG emissions. To this end the thesis begins with a comprehensive review of the potential drivers, barriers and opportunities for increased EE and GHG emissions mitigation for the local minerals industry.

In 2010, the adoption of nuclear power was declared a national priority in Kenya. Thereafter, a target of obtaining 4000 MW of nuclear power by the year 2030 was documented in Kenya's Least Cost Power Development Plan (LCPDP) 2010-2031. The nuclear target has drawn a lot of opposition from some Kenyans whose concerns are centered on the cost and safety risks incurred by nuclear power. The government however states that nuclear power is necessary for the diversification of the electricity generation mix and satisfaction of future electricity demand. The aim of this thesis was therefore to determine whether electricity demand in Kenya could be met without nuclear power and whether it was more economical to utilize nuclear power in Kenya's electricity generation mix rather than increase the generation capacity of other sources of electricity available to Kenya. To answer these questions, two capacity expansion models were developed. These models like the LCPDP studied the period between 2010 and 2031. The aim of the first model was to replicate LCPDP, and in doing so verify the necessity of nuclear power for meeting Kenya's future electricity demand. As far as was possible, the validation model utilized the same assumptions, including the same demand forecast that was used to develop the LCPDP 2010-2031. The validation was done to verify the necessity of nuclear power from the LCPDP's set of assumptions. The second model was developed with the aim of obtaining an updated capacity expansion plan. This plan utilized recent assumptions including an updated demand forecast. The demand was forecasted using regression of historical electricity demand against GDP in the commercial and industrial category. In the domestic category historical demand was regressed against GDP per capita and population. Based on recent data and economic forecasts, a GDP growth rate of 6% was used to forecast the electricity demand instead of 9% used in the LCPDP's demand forecast. [Please note: this thesis file has been deferred until June 2018]

This thesis presents a study of the technical, economic and social appropriateness of small stand-alone photovoltaic (PV) systems for meeting minimal electrical requirements in low-income off-grid households. A comprehensive review of the literature on photovoltaic technology was undertaken to identify key theoretical parameters and issues, and also to determine what the experience has been of similar applications in third world countries. Two PV systems were installed as demonstration projects: one at Uitsig near Cape Town, and the other at Omdraaisvlei in the Northern Cape. In order to monitor and evaluate the techriical performance of these systems, remote data capture units were installed for measuring appropriate parameters for analysis on typical daily, weekly and monthly bases. The degree of matching between the PV output characteristics and the battery and load demand was examined as weLl as the costs of system and component efficiencies under different operating conditions. The economic evaluation aimed to compare small PV systems with these of alternative power systems, for example petrol generators. Using a life cycle costing methodology (discounted to present value) the least-cost option for small power systems was determined under a range of financial scenarios. The social evaluation aimed at determining the impact of PV power on peoples' lifestyles. The results of the two demonstration projects have shown that photovoltaics can appropriately meet small domestic power needs in off-grid applications, providing clean, reliable, maintenance-free electricity which is far more convenient than other electricity producing technologies. Photovoltaics proved to be very much more cost effective than petrol generators, and were also found to be cheaper than coventionally used energy sources such as paraffin, candles and batteries. Both of the demonstration project households were extremely satisfied with the PV systems, which have resulted in significant improvement in quality of lifestyles. However, based on the overall performance of the systems it was recommended that more research was needed, using local conditions, and data to develop better PV system design and sizing methodologies.

Bibliography: pages 58-59. / This report describes a computer program which has been developed to simulate accurately the performance of stand alone photovoltaic systems with battery storage on an hourly basis for one simulated year. The program incorporates models of the POA irradiance, the photovoltaic cell · temperature and the battery temperature to simulate the environmental conditions of the system. These require hourly weather data as input. Typical meteorological years, which constitute a suitable form of input weather data, have been generated for those weather stations in Southern Africa which contain sufficient data. The energy flows within the system are simulated using models of the following parameters: photovoltaic module current, regulator efficiency and voltage, battery current and voltage, inverter efficiency, load shed voltage and load current. These models incorporate versatility in the level of modelling complexity (determined typically by the availability of the data used to characterise the components). The various models are encapsulated in modular units to facilitate alteration and updating at a later stage. The program is designed to simulate photovoltaic systems without maximum power point trackers, necessitating the use of interactive curve solving to compute the system operating point at any time. A robust and comprehensive algorithm has been implemented to execute this function. Improved battery modelling has been effected using data and experience acquired from a parallel research project. The program facilitates, with the judicious selection of input weather data, the economical sizing of systems in that it incorporates loss of power probability analysis and offers a high level of modelling precision. The simulation performance of the program compared favourably with that of PVFORM. The system performance estimated by PVFORM was marginally better, which is expected because PVFORM assumes that the system operates with a maximum power point tracker. In the development of the program there has been a focus on creating an effective user interface. This is designed to simplify and speed up program operation, and to present output in a form which is useful and illustrative.

This paper considers the opportunities for the South African and Zimbabwean Saw-milling Industry to be self-sufficient in the generation of power for its own industrial electrical energy requirements. The analysis of the wood residue arising from saw-milling operations in the southern African context confirms that there is a substantial amount of fuel available for the main heating requirement of a wet saw-mill. This heat is generally supplied in the form of steam to the timber drying and conditioning kilns that form part of the timber production process. One of the principal arguments put forward for cogeneration is that by passing steam through a condensing or back pressure turbine the entire power demand of a saw-mill can be met as well as the heat for the kilning process. Due to the situation of unbalanced load that persists at nearly all the saw-mills, there is a surplus of power that is often difficult to dispose of economically.

Includes bibliographic references. / In the early 1990s, a new model emerged for the provision of electricity generation across developing regions. The model involved private sector participation in the form of independent power projects (IPP). Driving this change in business was insufficient public finance from host country governments, a reduction in concessionary loans from multilateral and bilateral development institutions, and a push for improved efficiency in a state-owned utility sector that was considered to be underperforming. This dissertation reviews how IPPs developed across both North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa. The analysis focuses on the extent to which positive development outcomes (viz. reliable and affordable power) and investment outcomes (viz. favourable investment returns and the opportunity to grow investments) were both achieved. The dissertation posits that balancing development and investment outcomes leads to greater sustainability for projects. It further explores a range of elements that contribute to the success of projects, namely: the investment climate; policy, regulatory and planning frameworks; competitive procurement practices; availability of competitively procured fuel; favourable debt and equity arrangements, including new trends in the nature of IPP firms and credit enhancement arrangements; and new risk management techniques. In-depth case studies of IPP experiences in Egypt, Kenya and Tanzania are used to explore the question of balancing outcomes and sustainability. Reviews of IPP experiences in Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, Morocco, Nigeria and Tunisia also supplement the analysis together with an evaluation of the foreign direct investment context and related theory. Framing the whole discussion is an examination of how the new model for electric power provision evolved and how power sector reform models need to be adjusted to better reflect the reality in developing countries and emerging economies.

Energization can be described as a form of integrated energy delivery. In the case of the KwaBhaza Pilot Project, PV and LPGas were combined. in a package and offered to rural households. While the approach to off-grid electrification and distributed energy services tends to emphasise the technical aspects of delivery (Kotze 1998), this work provides some insight into the anthropological aspects that hinder the implementation of such initiatives. In this context, 'anthropological aspects' do not refer to cultural conditions in the field but rather the anthropology of development, expressed as a holistic examination of the project and a critical assessment of the development framework within which it operates. It is with this in mind that the objectives of energization, as a development initiative, are thoroughly explored.