Bibliography: leaves 79-84.

Bibliography: leaves 109-115.

Bibliography: leaves 154-164 . / The objective of this thesis is to undertake a comparative review of the power sector reforms and regulation in seven eastern and southern African countries, namely Uganda, Botswana, Kenya, Namibia, Swaziland and Tanzania.

This thesis investigates the hypothesis that the combination of future changes in climate and development (primarily irrigation) in the Zambezi River Basin (ZRB) threatens the technical and economic viability of existing and planned hydropower plants, and in turn the expansion plans and costs of the regional power system for Southern African countries. This hypothesis is evaluated using the following three questions to structure the analysis. ● How could future climate and irrigation expansion in the Zambezi River Basin affect hydropower generation potential? ● How could development in Southern Africa affect power demand, and how might this demand be met? ● How could the changes in water availability for hydropower (i.e. due to climate change and development) affect regional electricity expansion plans, generation costs and greenhouse gas emissions? The methodological tool used to address the first research question is the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) scenario modelling system, developed by Stockholm Environment Institute. WEAP is a combined hydrological and water allocation model that is widely used internationally. The modelling demonstrates that the change in future climate is the overwhelming driver of future production at almost all hydropower plants in the ZRB over the study period of 2010-2070. The difference in mean generation under wetting and drying climates (i.e. difference between the values under wet and dry scenarios) is 12-16% for individual existing plants. This difference is as much as 30% for individual new plants, with all plants other than Batoka showing variation in mean annual generation of more than 13%. The impact of irrigation, on the other hand, is mainly an issue for plants downstream from Kariba, and even then the magnitude is typically less than a third of the impact of the alternative climates. The water modelling results therefore do not vary significantly across alternative development futures, because the accelerated irrigation development is still not large enough to dramatically impact hydropower. The second research question is analysed using Stockholm Environment Institute's Long- Range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model to trace the impacts of socio-economic development on electricity supply and demand. The analysis combines a simulation of current utility plans with a least cost optimisation to meet the remainder of supply needed over the long term. The analysis shows that the underlying socio-economic drivers of demand lead to both a dramatic increase in total electricity demand and a shift across sectors and countries within the region. Total electricity demand for the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) region increases by 8-14 times over period from 2010 to 2070, with the combined demand from the rapidly growing countries of Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Mozambique and Zambia becoming larger than South African demand by 2070. At the sectoral level, the share of total demand from the extractive and manufacturing sectors increases from 59% in 2010 to 70% in 2070 under the most optimistic development scenario, based on a compound annual growth rate of consumption in excess of 5%. Activity level growth is the main driver of demand growth. Comparison with other studies in the region show that the mid-term demand estimates (e.g. 2025-2030) in this study are generally within the range of other research, with somewhat higher demand estimates from the most optimistic development scenario. Total electricity supply required over the longer term is met through the addition of 400-1400 GW of new capacity, or 8-20 times the current capacity of the region. More strikingly, the power mix shifts from almost 80% coal-fired power to 24-44% coal by 2070, with the balance being supplied mainly by solar, wind, hydropower and nuclear generation. The regional shift is no less dramatic, with South Africa's share of total generation declining from 84% to only a third, based on the higher growth rates in countries such as DRC, Mozambique and Zambia. The third research question is the most important in terms of the original contribution of this PhD thesis. Applying the WEAP and LEAP tools to an integrated multi-country system is a methodological advance pioneered in this thesis, showing that the integrated methodology can provide information to address not only the immediate questions about generation choices under an uncertain future climate, but also system costs and GHG emissions. The analysis shows that the reduction in hydropower generation under a drying climate leads to a shift in both capacity expansion choices and the operation of the regional power system, while the increases in hydropower output under a wetting climate are smaller. In other words, the "downside" of future climate changes is larger than the potential "upside". At an aggregate level, the increases in generation costs are a small share of total generation costs (i.e. less than 1% over the full study period compared to the baseline climate). However, the impact on generation costs for hydro-dependent countries such as Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe is considerably larger, and these countries also gain more under a wetting climate. Finally, because some hydropower could be displaced by coal, regional GHG emissions could increase by more than 6 MtCO2 per year in the medium term, or the equivalent of a large coalfired power station. This research has important policy implications for the water and electricity sector in the region. The potential transformation of the electricity supply sector would require a fundamental shift in resource use, grid management and infrastructure development in the region. The shift in the resource base for electricity generation will pose challenges for grid integration and balancing supply and demand across countries and load centres. Historically, the development of transmission capacity, and the resulting trade in electricity, has been constrained by the political and economic realities of the region. There are signs that the politics could be shifting, however, for political, economic and environmental reasons. In addition, the relatively low consumption of water in the Zambezi River Basin in the past meant that explicit trade-offs across sectors and across countries posed less of a challenge for the basin overall. This is very likely to change in the future, as increased demand from all sectors, and major potential changes in climate will require more explicit agreements across both countries and user groups on how best to utilise a limited resource. This research demonstrates the tools that could be used to integrate both climate change and upstream development demands into the feasibility studies before investment decisions are made. The research also illustrates the first steps toward integrating climate change and upstream development considerations into national and regional electricity planning. The electricity and water sectors are important contributors to the development of the Southern Africa, and hydropower in the ZRB lies at the intersection of these fields. Climate change, however, has the potential to add increased stress on these sectors, both directly and indirectly, and yet is not being considered in many individual hydropower power investments, or in national or regional electricity planning. The integrated scenario analysis approach in this thesis demonstrates how the impacts of climate change, as well as increased irrigation demand for water, could be assessed not only for specific hydropower plants and for the entire sector power sector. Preparing for this possible range of future climates can increase the resilience of the sector and reduce the risk of stranded assets in the power sector.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-10-09T12:33:33Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 / Made available in DSpace on 2014-10-09T14:05:40Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 / Dissertação (Mestrado) / IPEN/D / Instituto de Pesquisas Energéticas e Nucleares - IPEN-CNEN/SP

Made available in DSpace on 2014-10-09T12:33:33Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 / Made available in DSpace on 2014-10-09T14:05:40Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 / A questão do Desenvolvimento Sustentável é um dos temas mais falados na atualidade, e a busca do seu entendimento um grande desafio aos pesquisadores. Mas buscar seu entendimento e as relações das dimensões que o compõe (dimensão econômica, social, ambiental e institucional) não é o único desafio. Mensurar o caminho do desenvolvimento de uma sociedade é um desafio igualmente grande, principalmente devido as intrincadas relações entre meio ambiente, sociedade e economia. Este trabalho apresenta uma nova abordagem na construção de um índice sintético de desenvolvimento sustentável do ponto de vista da sustentabilidade energética. Esta metodologia se baseou em arquétipos matemáticos estruturados na Lógica Fuzzy, permitindo assim incorporar novas bases de conhecimento, mesmo que com definições vagas. O resultado final é a criação de um Índice de Sustentabilidade Energética que pode ser acompanhado no tempo, e que permite comparações entre países, já que na sua construção utiliza-se a base de dados do Guia de Indicadores Energéticos de Desenvolvimento Sustentável da Agência Internacional de Energia Atômica, que apresenta uma metodologia mundialmente aceita de indicadores energéticos. Este índice foi concebido para se parecido com outros indicadores como Índice de Desenvolvimento Humano (IDH) elaborado pela Organização das Nações Unidas, o que permite um fácil entendimento, por ser um número entre zero e um. / Dissertação (Mestrado) / IPEN/D / Instituto de Pesquisas Energéticas e Nucleares - IPEN-CNEN/SP

Anthropogenic (human caused) climate change is a major global issue because of the effects of climate change, which include increased frequency of drought, floods, erratic and/or insufficient rainfall, waterborne diseases; as well as related consequences such as water shortages, forest fires and loss of biodiversity. It is therefore imperative that there be a global effort to mitigate climate change in order to limit these potentially disastrous effects. Deforestation and forest degradation, principally in the tropics, cause approximately 12 percent of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Therefore, one method to mitigate climate change is to address reducing GHG emissions from deforestation and forest degradation. "Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation, conservation, sustainable management of forests, and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries," also known as REDD+, is, at its core, a financial incentives based strategy that aims to compensate national governments, sub-national actors, private project developers and/or local communities, in return for demonstrable reductions in carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation and enhancements of terrestrial carbon stocks. REDD+ also focuses on building capacity for developing countries to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation and invest in low-carbon paths to sustainable development. Uganda is one of the developing countries that has shown enthusiasm for REDD+ and has actively engaged in REDD+ readiness activities. However, REDD+ readiness activities are costly due to various institutional capacity requirements that may pose a significant challenge to Uganda. The question posed by the study is whether Uganda's involvement in REDD+ is likely to result in net economic benefits for the country. The study aims to determine whether, in the absence of direct evidence of the success of the REDD+ mechanism in any country, Uganda's economic benefits from REDD+ are still expected to exceed the costs of implementation. Social benefits are an additional incentive however, even a combination of both economic and social benefits may not be reason enough for a country to become a REDD+ country, especially if alternative land uses are more lucrative or costs are too high. The methodology used is largely qualitative and theoretical, except for the economic analysis which is quantitative. The outcome of the study is that while there is insufficient evidence to suggest that Uganda will not benefit overall from being involved with REDD+, the feasibility study of the potential REDD+ project in the Murchison-Semkili landscape showed that, at least in that project area, the economic benefits were unlikely to cover both the implementation and opportunity costs in the long term. This does raise a legitimate concern that REDD+ might not result in net economic benefits for Uganda. Even though the economic benefits of Uganda's involvement in REDD+ are uncertain, the mechanism is still expected to result in social benefits, such as improved livelihoods in terms of service delivery; increased efficiency and accountability of government and governmental institutions; and increased public consultation and participation. There are, however, risks to Uganda's successful implementation of REDD+ such as unspecified donor funding, which may not be forthcoming, and the lack of clarity surrounding global compliance carbon markets. Uganda still has much to do in order to build the required institutional capacity for REDD+ to be successful, especially with regard to increasing the effectiveness of the institutions that manage the country's forests. Uganda also needs to reduce some of the drivers of deforestation in the country through programmes that target poverty alleviation and improve agricultural practices. In terms of REDD+ specifically, Uganda needs to complete the development of a National REDD+ Strategy, secure adequate funding for the mechanism, and accelerate the development of REDD+ pilot activities, which are currently in the planning phase. Further research is needed on determining the total value of Uganda's forests, taking into account economic, environmental and social considerations. Research is also needed on the impact successful REDD+ pilot activities have had in other comparable countries.

This thesis analyzes the challenges associated with the countries in socioeconomic and political transition when on the path of integrating into the developed world unions or on the path of fulfilling projected renewable energy targets. As an example country, or as a study case here, The Republic of Serbia has been selected. The thesis addresses the question of how the Renewable Energy Market in Serbia is developing and how are the challenges being addressed. Thesis reveals that main obstacles come from the ownership of the energy and the power gird assets which are still entirely owned and controlled by the State. Due to this fact it is hard to introduce the planned renewable projects, mostly to be developed and owned by foreign entities, and at the same time to be forced to reduce domestic power production out of the thermal power plants. However, by being on the path to the EU, the renewable energy targets and the RES (Renewable Energy Sources) market have to be accomplished and the government has to show full legislative and policy support. It is also realized that there is a significant discrepancy between the "say and do" in the case of The Republic of Serbia, at least so far. The thesis highlights the important driving factors that, despite of the local resistance and sluggishness,...

Este trabalho parte da constatação de que, na história de Mato Grosso do Sul, sempre esteve presente a disputa, tão frequente no Brasil, entre os projetos de desenvolvimento de longo prazo e os interesses imediatistas do núcleo governante. Esta análise é conduzida nesta tese pelos os conceitos estruturais de desenvolvimento e subdesenvolvimento, dentro de um quadro teórico preciso, à luz das teorias macro-econômicas de Celso Furtado. Em seguida, o trabalho analisa como, em Mato Grosso do Sul, apesar da presença frequente do discurso do desenvolvimento, a força do imediatismo das elites suplantou as articulações que visassem um projeto de desenvolvimento sustentado e duradouro, capaz de melhorar as condições materiais e intelectuais da sociedade. Em particular no setor energético, que é o foco central desta tese, a contradição é marcante, principalmente em razão de que, sob vários aspectos, Mato Grosso do Sul abriga um dos mais importantes parques hidrelétricos do Brasil, sobretudo no Rio Paraná, compartilhado com São Paulo. Foi justamente a debilidade da visão de longo prazo que levou a que a implantação desse parque energético ocorresse à margem de seus governos. / This work starts from the observation that in the history of Mato Grosso do Sul, the race was always present, so frequent in Brazil, among the development projects of long term and immediate interests of the core ruling. This analysis is conducted in this thesis by the structural concepts of development and underdevelopment, within a precise theoretical framework, under Celso Furtados macroeconomic theories. Then, in work examines how, in Mato Grosso do Sul, despite the frequent presence of the development discourse, the strength of the immediacy of the elites supplanted the joints which are aimed at a project of sustainable development and durable, capable of improving the material conditions and intellectual society. Particularly in the energy sector that is the focus of this thesis, the contradiction is striking, especially considering that in many ways Mato Grosso do Sul is home to one of the most important hydroelectric parks in Brazil, especially in the Paraná River, shared with the state of São Paulo. It was precisely the weakness of long term vision that led to the deployment of such energy park occurred outside of their governments.

Este trabalho parte da constatação de que, na história de Mato Grosso do Sul, sempre esteve presente a disputa, tão frequente no Brasil, entre os projetos de desenvolvimento de longo prazo e os interesses imediatistas do núcleo governante. Esta análise é conduzida nesta tese pelos os conceitos estruturais de desenvolvimento e subdesenvolvimento, dentro de um quadro teórico preciso, à luz das teorias macro-econômicas de Celso Furtado. Em seguida, o trabalho analisa como, em Mato Grosso do Sul, apesar da presença frequente do discurso do desenvolvimento, a força do imediatismo das elites suplantou as articulações que visassem um projeto de desenvolvimento sustentado e duradouro, capaz de melhorar as condições materiais e intelectuais da sociedade. Em particular no setor energético, que é o foco central desta tese, a contradição é marcante, principalmente em razão de que, sob vários aspectos, Mato Grosso do Sul abriga um dos mais importantes parques hidrelétricos do Brasil, sobretudo no Rio Paraná, compartilhado com São Paulo. Foi justamente a debilidade da visão de longo prazo que levou a que a implantação desse parque energético ocorresse à margem de seus governos. / This work starts from the observation that in the history of Mato Grosso do Sul, the race was always present, so frequent in Brazil, among the development projects of long term and immediate interests of the core ruling. This analysis is conducted in this thesis by the structural concepts of development and underdevelopment, within a precise theoretical framework, under Celso Furtados macroeconomic theories. Then, in work examines how, in Mato Grosso do Sul, despite the frequent presence of the development discourse, the strength of the immediacy of the elites supplanted the joints which are aimed at a project of sustainable development and durable, capable of improving the material conditions and intellectual society. Particularly in the energy sector that is the focus of this thesis, the contradiction is striking, especially considering that in many ways Mato Grosso do Sul is home to one of the most important hydroelectric parks in Brazil, especially in the Paraná River, shared with the state of São Paulo. It was precisely the weakness of long term vision that led to the deployment of such energy park occurred outside of their governments.