M.Com. / The discovery of natural gas and condensate during the past 10 years off the South African south coast coincided with increased calls for sanctions and isolation of South Africa by the international community. The question was raised if the natural gas could not be used to diminish our dependancy on imported oil. After several studies to determine the feasibility of converting natural gas to fuel it was decided to proceed with the conversion project referred to as the Mossgas project. The purpose would be to produce offshore natural gas with the aid of fixed offshore platforms, linked to an onshore facility via pipelines, where it would be transformed into fuel using a process similar to the Sasol Synthol process. The purpose of the thesis is to determine the influence of factors assumed to have the greatest affect on the project, i.e. tax, loans, cost overruns and the production of by-products. To quantify these subjective criteria of the influence of the above factors, financial spreadsheets were designed utilizing the Lotus 123 software programme to evaluate the impact of the variables. A series approach to sensitivity analysis was followed, calculating most likely, highest and lowest outcomes for the different variables. A base case utilizing modified Mossgas cost figures was designed and subsequent spreadsheets to evaluate specific scenarios were developed. A base case was developed evaluating the land and offshore facilities as two separate projects, linked by a transfer price for gas. The price is determined to benefit both the land and offshore projects and designed to lead to equal profitability. Equity capital is assumed to be the only source of financing for the base case. Internal rate of return (IRR) was used as a decision-making criterion throughout the analysis...

Orientador: Newton Muller Pereira / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Geociencias / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-11T12:46:21Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Rohrich_SandraSimm_D.pdf: 7329555 bytes, checksum: a7b7acd141925794cd90062784b0d96a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008 / Resumo: Nas últimas décadas o desenvolvimento tecnológico do setor energético tem evoluído em relação às preocupações ambientais, sendo que estas também têm influenciado as opções por determinadas tecnologias energéticas. No contexto atual, os combustíveis fósseis e o motor de combustão caracterizam o regime energético dominante, realidade que apresenta constante crescimento no consumo de energia e leva a debates relacionados à segurança energética, ao esgotamento das fontes fósseis e à necessidade de descarbonizá-Ias. Por conseguinte, a necessidade de diminuir as emissões de C02 justifica a transição para opções energéticas mais amenas para o meio ambiente e que também possam fornecer energia para aplicações estacionárias e veiculares. A opção analisada nesta Tese é o hidrogênio como vetor energético e a célula a combustível como sistema de conversão, pressupondo que, se a inserção dessas tecnologias se efetivar, poderá influenciar toda a estrutura da sociedade e levar ao estabelecimento da Economia do Hidrogênio. Para tanto, as ações internacionais apresentam iniciativas oriundas da lnternational Partnership for the Hydrogen Economy (IPHE) e da lnternational Energy Agency (IEA). Ambas influenciam as orientações brasileiras provenientes das instituições de pesquisa e o desenvolvimento de políticas públicas. No Brasil existem dois documentos formais que tratam da Economia do Hidrogênio, o Programa de Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação para a Economia do Hidrogênio (PROH2), e o Roteiro para a Estruturação da Economia do Hidrogênio no Brasil. O objetivo desta Tese é analisar em que condições o atual regime energético brasileiro, para o fornecimento de energia estacionária e veicular, poderá incorporar as tecnologias do hidrogênio, produzido a partir de fontes renováveis, e das células a combustível. Os conceitos de paradigmas e trajetórias tecnológicas são emprestados da teoria evolucionista para subsidiar esta discussão. Para descrever as ações e propostas internacionais para a Economia do Hidrogênio são descritos estudos prospectivos que tratam essa possibilidade como uma ruptura tecnológica, isto é, uma descontinuidade em relação ao regime vigente. Para cOn;Ipreender o contexto nacional foram realizadas entrevistas semi-estruturadas com os coordenadores de área de trabalho do Roteiro para a Estruturação da Economia do Hidrogênio, documento que foi considerado o maior avanço brasileiro em busca de uma Política Nacional para a Economia do Hidrogênio e de um Programa Nacional para a Produção e Uso do Hidrogênio. As entrevistas contribuíram para o levantamento das perspectivas para o Brasil, detalhadas na forma de obstáculos e oportunidades, os quais em grande parte corresponderam ao levantamento bibliográfico. Dentre os obstáculos nacionais destacase, além da necessidade de políticas públicas, a difichldade em fazer a transferência dos projetos científicos para a bancada pré-comercial, bem como a necessidade de uma infra-estrutura para a produção, armazenagem e distribuição do hidrogênio, questão esta que também foi amplamente discutida no panorama internacional. Dentre as oportunidades para o país está o aprendizado já alcançado na produção e no uso das fontes renováveis, principalmente as hídricas e a biomassa. Quanto às condições para as mudanças no regime energético brasileiro, tem-se o fato de o Brasil ser um país periférico que tende a acompanhar o desenvolvimento tecnológico observado no ambiente internacional, bem como a predominância da geração distribuída, do hidrogênio obtido das fontes renováveis e das células a combustível estacionárias / Abstract: In the last decades technological development of energy sector has evolved in connection with environmental worries, in as much as these ones have also influenced options for some specific energetic technologies. Current context is characterized by fossil fuel and internal-combustion engine, such reality presents steady increase of energy consume and brings debates related to energy security, fossil sources breakdown and necessity of decarbonization. Accordingly, necessary decrease of CO2 emissions justify a switch to environmentally less aggressive energetic options that can also supply energy to stationary and vehicular applications. The option analyzed in this thesis is hydrogen as energetic vector and fuel cell as conversion system; supposing effective insertion of such technologies, it would influence alI over society structure as welI as result on Hydrogen Economy establishment. ln this way, international actions reveal initiatives originally from IPHE (International Partnership for the Hydrogen Economy) and IEA (International Energy Agency). Both them influence Brazilian guidelines produced by research institutions and public policy development. ln Brazil there are two official documents about Hydrogen Economy: PROH2 (Programa de Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação para a Economia do Hidrogênio) and Roteiro para a Estruturação da Economia do Hidrogênio no Brasil. This thesis intends to analyze terms for incorporate of current Brazilian energetic regime, which supplies stationary and vehicular energy, by Hydrogen, produced from renewable sources, and by fuel cells. As subsidy to this analysis, we borrowed concepts of technological paradigm and trajectories from evolutionist theory. In order to analyze international actions and proposals for Hydrogen Economy we described prospective researches on such possibility of tephnological rupture, i. e., a current regime breaking. In order to understand the national context we employed under-structured interviews with area coordinators of Guideline for Organization of Hydrogen Economy in Brazil, document that have been considered a major Brazilian advance for a National Policy to Hydrogen Economy and a National Program for Hydrogen Production and Use. These interviews were useful to Brazil perspectives surveying, detailed here as obstacles and opportunities, which had largely correspondence with our bibliographic review. Among the national obstacles, besides the necessity of public policies, it shows up difficult transference of scientific projects to a pre-commercial level, as well as necessity of an infrastructure for production, storage and distribution of Hydrogen, problems widely debated around the world. Among the opportunities to the country it shows up the already developed knowledge in production and use of renewable sources, mainly hydric and biomass. About the conditions for changes in the Brazilian energetic regime, has been the fact that Brazil is a country peripheral that tends to follow the technological development observed in the international environment, and the predominance of distributed generation, of hydrogen derived from renewable sources, and of the fuel cell stationary / Doutorado / Doutor em Política Científica e Tecnológica

This study investigates the use of discretion by oil and gas companies in reporting financial performance and oil and gas reserve estimates during times of high political scrutiny resulting from increases in energy prices. Hypotheses tested in prior literature state that companies facing the risk of increasing taxes or new regulations reduce reported earnings to reduce this risk. This study uses a measure of high profitability (rank order of return on assets relative to industry peers) to identify oil and gas companies more likely to manage earnings during the period from 2002 to 2008. Two measures of discretionary accruals (total and current discretionary accruals), and a measure of discretionary depreciation, depletion, and amortization (DDA) were used as indicators of discretion exercised in reporting earnings. Data on oil and gas reserve disclosures was also hand-collected from Forms 10-K to investigate whether managers use reserve estimate revisions to reduce reported earnings through increasing the annual depletion expense. Results suggest that both oil and gas refining and producing firms use negative discretionary accruals to reduce reported earnings. Results also indicate that profitability is an important determinant of the use of negative discretionary accruals by these companies regardless of the time period examined. There is also evidence that oil and gas producing firms opportunistically revise their oil and gas reserve estimates to increase depreciation, depletion, and amortization expense during periods of high oil prices.