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This thesis addresses the problems associated with security of the electricity supply in the UK. The British electricity supply industry has experienced a significant structural change. Competition has been brought into the electricity industry and a single wholesale electricity market of Great Britain has been established. The evolution of the British electricity market raises new challenges, such as improving the liquidity of wholesale markets and developing clean energy. The wholesale electricity prices are less transparent and trading arrangements are very complex in the British electricity market. In this thesis a fundamental model, called a stack model, has been developed in order to forecast wholesale electricity prices. The objective of the stack model is to identify the marginal cost of power output based on the fuel prices, carbon prices, and availability of power plants. The stack model provides a reasonable marginal cost curve for the industry which can be used as an indicator for the wholesale electricity price. In addition, the government's targets for climate change and renewable energy bring new opportunities for wind energy. Under the large wind energy penetration scenario the security of the energy supply will be essential. We have modelled the correlations between wind speed data for a set of wind farms. The correlation can be used to measure the portfolio risk of the wind farms. Electricity companies should build their portfolio of wind farms with low or negative correlations in order to hedge the risk from the intermittency of wind. We found that the VAR(1) model is superior to other statistic models for modelling correlations between wind speeds of a wind farm portfolio.

Thesis (MA)--Stellenbosch University, 2015. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This study explores the impact of primary energy on the measurement of state power and hegemony. Through an examination of British and American hegemonies, the role of coal, oil and petroleum on the hegemonic cycle is assessed, and the argument is presented for the inclusion of energy as a primary element underpinning the state power base. Utilising the Hegemonic Stability Theory approach to the study of global hegemony, a framework for the assessment of the role of energy on international hegemony is constructed. The Hegemonic Stability Theory approach employed in this study is augmented through the incorporation of several complimentary theoretical approaches, in order to improve the theory’s applicability to multiple cases. Through an examination of the economic, financial, and military/naval ‘pillars’ of the respective hegemonic powers, the study determines that energy has had a marked impact on both British and American hegemonies. Technological developments, notably the steam engine, and the subsequent conversion of the Royal Navy, the cornerstone of British hegemony, from sail to steam, made coal vital to the British Empire. In contrast, the use of oil and petroleum during the United States hegemonic reign indicate that access to oil and petroleum not only benefitted the United States material power base, but has become vital to sustaining American hegemony. This study makes a plausible case for the inclusion of energy as a factor in the assessment of state power, and draws attention to the importance of ensuring energy security and maintaining technological leads. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie verhandeling ondersoek die impak wat grond-energie het as maatstaf op staatsmag en hegemonie. Na afleiding van ‘n gevalle studie van beide Britse en Amerikaanse hegemonies - die rol wat steenkool, olie en petroleum speel op die hegemoniese siklus – stel hierdie navorsingstuk voor dat grond-energie ingesluit moet word as ‘n kriterium van hoe staatsmag gemeet word. Hierdie tesis wend Hegemoniese Stabiliteitsteorie aan om internasionale hegemonie te ondersoek. ‘n Raamwerk om die belang van energie te meet in internasionale hegemonie word opgestel. Die Hegemoniese Stabiliteitsteorie aanslag word aangepas deur verskeie komplimentêre teoretiese benaderings te inkorporeer en sodoende die teorie meer toepaslik te maak op verskeie gevallestudies. Deur die ekonomiese, finansiële en militêle/vloot ‘pilare’ van die onderskeie hegemoniese magte te ondersoek, bevind hierdie verhandeling dat energie ‘n bepalende invloed gehad het op beide Britse en Amerikaanse hegemonies. Tegnologiese ontwikkelings, mees opmerklik die stoomenjin en die gevolglike oorgang van die Koninklike Vloot (die hoeksteun van Britse hegemonie) van seil- na stoomenjins, was die gevolg dat steenkool van uiterse belang geword het vir die Britse Ryk. In kontras word aangedui dat die gebruik van en toegang tot olie en petroleum tydens die hegemoniese bewind van die Verenigde State van Amerika nie net die materiële magsbasis bevoordeel het nie, maar asook bepalend geword het om Amerikaanse hegemonie te handhaaf. Hierdie verhandeling maak die aanneemlike voorstelling dat energie ingesluit moet word as ‘n faktor om staatsmag te meet, en dui die belang daarvan aan om tegnologiese vooruitgang te onderhou en sodoende energie sekuriteit te verseker.