Thesis: Ph. D. in Technology, Management, and Policy, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2014. / Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 419-464). / US Air Force fighter aircraft underwent a remarkable transformation in the period from 1950 to 1980. Whereas the lone fighter pilots of earlier fame relied on the power of their eyesight, the finesse of their piloting skills, and a steady squeeze of the trigger to achieve victory, later pilots vanquished their foe by focusing on a four-inch-square cockpit display, manipulating electromagnetic waves, and launching rocket-propelled missiles from miles away. Two popular historical narratives dominate this period in fighter aviation: one of "great machines," which focuses on the technologies; the other of "great pilots," which focuses on the oft-heroic aviators. The former conjures notions of technological determinism; the latter, a timeless "myth of the fighter pilot." Regrettably, the two distinct approaches obscure the important human-machine interactions that linked the pilots with their fire control technologies. This study presents an alternative perspective of fighter aviation, viewing it instead as an inseparable system of humans and machines working together. I develop a cognitive history of the air-to-air fighter pilot, analyzing three sequential experiences: the F-86E Sabre during the Korean War, the F-4C Phantom II during the Vietnam War, and the F-15A Eagle during a pair of air combat evaluations conducted in 1977. In each case, new fire control systems were introduced to simplify weapons employment and thereby free the pilot to focus attention on other tasks deemed more vital, such as flying itself. The pilots, however, soon realized that within air combat, their traditional flying skills were becoming less critical to their success and survival; in contrast, the skills required to operate their new fire control systems were growing in significance and complexity. With the pilots uniquely vested in sustaining the "fighter pilot myth," tension and conflict ensued, both within individual fighter cockpits and in the social relationships that extended between fighter cockpits. This study offers fresh insight into issues of technological change that confront today's military aviators, especially regarding remotely piloted aircraft. More generally, this study addresses the tensions that often arise when increasing automation alters or displaces the tasks that have historically defined an individual's profession. / by Steven A. Fino. / Ph. D. in Technology, Management, and Policy

Thesis (M. Eng. in Logistics)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2003. / "June 2003." / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 99-100). / A logistics cost model is developed for a chemical distribution system from a single plant using bulk and packaged transportation strategies. The purpose of this research is to provide a tool that helps understand the cost trade offs in the operation of a logistics system at a strategic level for large scale systems and complex distribution systems. An analytical modeling approach was used to determine variables that define transportation, storage and material handling costs in the system. Several distribution strategies were evaluated and benchmarked in terms of costs against the current. Savings offered by the packaged distribution system for a single plant were marginal; extension of the current model to evaluate cost reduction opportunities across the complete network of plants and distribution centers is proposed for further research effort. / by Jose Joaquin Hernandez Lopez. / M.Eng.in Logistics

Thesis: M. Eng. in Logistics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2015. / Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 45-46). / As the US economy recovers from the recession of 2008, demand for freight transportation is getting stronger. However, the trucking industry is not ready to take on this growth in volume due to a shortage of truck drivers. From a shipper's perspective, availability of transportation is an important concern that needs to be addressed to ensure customer satisfaction, realize growth and keep costs down. Shippers can enhance their carriers' ability to provide consistent trucking capacity by reducing the variability of freight demand. This thesis creates a simulation model of deployment processes at a consumer packaged goods company to evaluate relationship between transportation variability and various management levers. Through the analysis of the simulation runs, the effects of management levers on the freight volatility are quantified. The findings of the research show that actively limiting the truckloads sent downstream, and thus eliminating the freight volatility through internal policies is a potential solution. The thesis concludes by presenting the benefits and trade-offs of this approach on the logistics costs of the sponsor company. If the company sticks to the current policy of immediate shipment as the need arises, the thesis shows that the best deployment schedule is a bi-weekly one. / by Kurn Ma and Manish Kumar. / M. Eng. in Logistics

Thesis (M. Eng. in Logistics)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2006. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 52-53). / Agriculture is a business fraught with risk. Crop production depends on climatic, geographical, biological, political, and economic factors, which introduce risks that are quantifiable given the appropriate mathematical and statistical methodologies. Accurate information about the nature of historical crop yields is an important modeling input that helps farmers, agribusinesses, and governmental bodies in managing risk and establishing the proper policies for such things as crop insurance. Explicitly or implicitly, nearly all farm decisions relate in some way to the expectation of crop yield. Historically, crop yields are assumed to be normally distributed for a statistical population and for a sample within a crop year. This thesis examines the assumption of normality of crop yields using data collected from India involving sugarcane and soybeans. The null hypothesis (crop yields are normally distributed) was tested using the Lilliefors method combined with intensive qualitative analysis of the data. Results show that in all cases considered in this thesis, crop yields are not normally distributed. / (cont.) This result has important implications for managing risk involving sugarcane and soybeans grown in India. The last section of this thesis examines the impact of crop yield non normality on various insurance programs, which typically assume that all crop yields are normally distributed and that the probability of crop failure can be calculated given available data. / by Narsi Reddy Gayam. / M.Eng.in Logistics

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2012. / Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. Page 98 blank. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 95-97). / There is urgency for NewCo, a large multinational corporation, to better execute programs spanning across product lines. This is because the number of these programs appears to be increasing and there are indicators that this trend will continue moving forward. The increase is driven by both business and customer needs for commonality as well as a shift in customer expectations making NewCo's current product lines a subsystem in a large system of systems. NewCo has recently struggled to execute programs implementing technology spanning product lines successfully. The organization is rooted in decentralized engineering of individual product lines and gaining alignment across these internal stakeholders is very difficult. The goal of this research is to identify factors making programs that span across multiple product lines and corporate divisions more difficult than expected making achieving commonality difficult. The research will also recommend potential changes to the design of the overall enterprise to improve the ability to execute programs spanning multiple product lines successfully. Using an exploratory research approach, the current state of NewCo has been evaluated based on value exchange with stakeholders and an eight views enterprise architecting framework. Nine individual factors that contribute towards the difficulty in these programs that consolidate into five categories are identified. The first category ties to strategy and includes three topics: the lack of enterprise alignment, the impact of decentralized history and culture, and the strategic choice in addressing system of systems transition. The second category relates to the organization structure and has three veins within it as well: the status of most recent organizational realignment, the perceptions around supporting businesses and shared services, and the increase in councils and committees. The third category discusses enterprise policies focusing on the metrics used to measure the divisions. The fourth category reviews the decision making process and the culture of consensus. The fifth and final category relates to knowledge sharing and recent process improvements and shifting roles that impact the ability to effectively share knowledge. Six initial recommendations are presented based upon the findings of this research. First, intentionally "design" the system of systems solution including centralizing a portion of engineering to allocate requirements to product lines and shared services. Second, reinvigorate reorganization effort of Division B and expand shared services. Third, revise policies to incent cooperation and supporting system of systems solutions. Fourth, establish clear roles and empower decision makers. Fifth, continue to invest in process improvements within the marketing organization and the knowledge transfer into product development. The sixth and final recommendation includes reiterating that programs spanning product lines are difficult. This would create awareness that commonality and system of systems solutions are not easy to develop. If team members and leadership begin these programs acknowledging the challenges ahead of them they will be better able to position the program for success. The next step is to validate these recommendations with senior leaders within NewCo. Additional research could continue though the Enterprise Strategic Analysis and Transformation (ESAT) framework and complete steps five through eight for NewCo. A second future research opportunity would be to conduct a larger study incorporating different enterprises within different industries that are facing the same challenge of shifting from individual product lines to delivering customers complete integrated solutions that span traditional product boundaries. This type of research could potentially identify best practices and provide insights for the most effective enterprise architecture. / by Candice Engler. / S.M.

Thesis: M. Eng. in Logistics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2014. / Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 66-67). / This thesis investigates the utility of using retailer point of sales (POS) data in the production planning process of a consumer-packaged goods (CPG) manufacturing company. The quantitative measurements of utility include the improvement of production forecasting, reduction of inventory costs, and reduction of equipment changeover costs. Qualitatively, we evaluate the effectiveness of using POS to drive a more collaborative relationship between the retailer and the manufacturer. The POS data include items sold, store inventory, and warehouse inventory of a retail partner for specific stock keeping units (SKUs) produced by the manufacturer. We develop production-planning models by combining POS data with customer orders, current production plans, and existing inventory positions to optimize manufacturing and inventory costs. The results illustrate that if the aggregate volume of customer orders approximately equaled to that of the POS, then the integration of POS data into manufacturing planning offers opportunities to reduce production and inventory costs. The analysis also points to situations where POS data and customer orders vary significantly; in these situations the proposed production-planning model does not apply, but the POS data provide useful evidence for aligning plans between the manufacturer and the retailer. / by Daniele Primavera and Hang Shi. / M. Eng. in Logistics

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2008. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 245-247). / When inclement weather reduces the arrival capacity of a busy metropolitan airport, it may lead to significant airborne delays. Delaying aircraft in the air consumes additional fuel, increases overall air traffic congestion, and may lead to costly flight diversions. As a result, during periods of inclement weather, the FAA may implement a Ground Delay Program (GDP) to proactively delay flights on the ground before they depart and reduce the possibility of future airborne delays. However, in order to assign ground delays to flights, a GDP must be implemented before they depart, at a time when the future airport arrival capacity may be uncertain. This dissertation discusses two analyses in regards to the design of a GDP. The first analysis proposes a model that solves for the optimal assignment of ground delay to aircraft for a stochastic and dynamic forecast of the airport arrival capacity, with nonlinear delay cost functions, and a capacity of the airborne arrival queue. This model is applied to several hypothetical examples and, in comparison to prior models from the literature, identifies solutions with a lower total expected cost, a smaller maximum observed arrival queue, or both. The second analysis compares the salience, or importance, of various stakeholder groups to their roles in the design of a GDP in practice. Passengers, in particular, are shown to be an important, but under-represented stakeholder group. A second model is proposed that solves for an assignment of ground delay that minimizes the total passenger delay cost. A comparison of these results to those of the first model show that the total cost of delays to passengers could be reduced by more than 30% if the FAA were to directly consider the cost of delays to passengers during the design of a GDP. / by Michael J. Hanowsky. / Ph.D.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2013. / Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 269-278). / This dissertation demonstrates that valuable strategic insight and a reasonable measure of predictive power can be obtained by developing and analyzing context-rich parsimonious game theoretic strategy models during large technology transitions in concentrated industries. Such models enable clear and compact analysis of oligopolistic competitive dynamics which are typically addressed by more informal processes in much of current managerial practice. This result is established by constructing 3-player game theory models of two prominent, ongoing technology transitions in semiconductor manufacturing: EUV lithography (EUVL) and 450mm silicon wafers. The iterative multi-data-source process used for establishing appropriate game structures and payoff estimates is described in detail. Contextual realism was augmented by in-depth behavioral analysis of select industry players and by interactions with the equipment supplier facing groups at a semiconductor device manufacturer. The robust game theoretic prediction from the EUV lithography R&D model was subsequently validated by the announcement of a series of chipmaker investments totaling greater than $6B in the largest photolithography supplier in July/August 2012 (including significant financial assistance to EUV equipment readiness) and by several other industry financing events in late 2012. Although no such distinct confirmatory evidence exists for the 450mm wafer model predictions, it was found to have substantial face validity. Based on learning from the modeling efforts, criteria are proposed for determining whether other technology transitions will be amenable to such analysis. Generalizability to similar transitions in other industries (including aerospace and automotive) is discussed. Industry strategists, technology and business strategy scholars, and innovation policy makers should find the work of interest. / by George Thomas Heaps-Nelson. / Ph.D.

Thesis (S.M. in Engineering and Management)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, System Design and Management Program, 2010. / Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 74-78). / In the summer of 2008, the United States of America experienced an oil shock, first of a kind since 1970s. The American public became sensitized to the concerns about foreign oil supply and climate change and global warming, and to the role of transportation in emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases (GHG). Several proposed federal policies impose stringent limits on the transportation sector, in terms of fuel consumption and GHG emissions. Within transportation sector, light duty vehicles (LDVs) - cars, light trucks and SUVs - currently emit the most GHGs. Hybrid technology emerged as a promising option to address several of these challenges. A modern hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) offers significantly better fuel economy together with lower levels of pollutant and CO2 emissions. HEVs are currently categorized as Advanced Technology Partial Zero Emission Vehicles (AT-PZEV) by California Air Resource Board. Recently, a new generation of vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV), has been announced in the immediate future by major auto manufacturers. While HEVs have a relatively small battery that is recharged by the engine or by regenerative braking, a larger battery of a PHEV and a charger allows a vehicle owner to recharge the battery from the electric grid. The plug-in technology further increases fuel economy and reduces emissions from the tailpipe. For example, a Chevrolet Volt PHEV is expected to be launched as 2011 model with 40 mile allelectric travel with no tailpipe emissions. However, there are multiple challenges associated with the new technology. HEVs and PHEVs incur higher costs due to additional components, such as electric motors and motor controllers, and a battery. Today's batteries provide energy storage density hundred times lower than that of gasoline. Electricity consumed by hybrids is generated by coal and other fossil fuel power plants that emit harmful chemicals and greenhouse gases. The infrastructure for electric cars is at the infancy stage. Some government policies designed to introduce all-electric cars, such as the California ZEV mandate of the late 1990s, failed to introduce a sustained number of electric vehicles to the market. To provide an integrated approach to the causes and effects of electrified powertrains, two plausible scenarios of advanced vehicle market penetration were developed. Federal policies and consumer preferences were considered as primary drivers. Biofuels were considered alongside fossil fuels as primary energy sources for transportation. Rapid adoption of PHEVs was found to cause a perceptible, but not a significant increase in electric power demand. The scenarios demonstrated ability to achieve fuel economy milestones and quantified the challenge of achieving 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. / by Michael Khusid. / S.M.in Engineering and Management

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2011. / Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. Page 304 blank. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 247-254). / Significant energy challenges today come from security of supply and environmental concerns. Those surpass the quest for economic efficiency that has been the primary objective until recent times. In an intensive fossil-fuel energy world, it is critical to find more effective ways of using the existing resources and of identifying technologies that can improve the sustainability of the energy model. Both, distributed energy resources and renewable-based electricity generation technologies are considered, by energy experts and also policymakers, to be essential for this purpose. Co-generation of electricity and heat at the residential level, known as micro-CHP, is an attractive alternative because of the potential for enhancing energy efficiency, reducing GHG emissions, and improving the utilization of primary energy resources. This thesis aims at quantitatively assessing the impacts of a large-scale penetration of micro-CHPs within an energy system. Based on system-wide and residential metrics, this work intends to understand whether or not this technology is a valuable contribution to social welfare. For this purpose, a methodology is developed to integrate increasing numbers of micro-CHPs into a system's generation capacity expansion process over a 20-year timeframe, and into an electric power system's daily operation for a single year. Findings from our long-term analysis demonstrated that micro-CHPs helped in reducing cumulative C02 emissions. Under high-to-medium carbon price scenarios, they mostly displaced installed capacity from gas-based technologies, such as natural gas combined cycle units. Other results suggest that a larger micro-CHP penetration could be encouraged through economic incentives such as capital costs reduction, and/or lower natural gas retail prices, where conditions may favor one micro-CHP technology over another. Better economic conditions stimulate the deployment of micro-CHPs with low heat-to-power ratio (HPR), while machines with very high HPR do not appear to be a competitive alternative when compared to other micro-CHP technologies and conventional heating systems. Findings from our short-term analysis demonstrated that widespread deployment of micro-CHPs results in positive effects, such as C02 emissions reductions, energy efficiency improvements, decrease in system energy production costs, and summer peak load reduction at both system and residential levels. It was also found that these benefits could increase with the incorporation of additional features such as a hot water storage unit integrated with the heating system, micro-CHP modulating capability, and a micro-CHP price-based control strategy. However, the benefits at the system level seem to be relatively low for the level of penetration, assumed to be 10% of the total electric installed capacity. Moreover, the operation of a large number of these units considerably increases on-site natural gas fuel consumption all year round. Results also suggest that an adequate tariff design improves the economic efficiency of the system and the operation of micro-CHPs under an intelligent control strategy. When the price signal sent to customers reflects the system's short-term marginal price, the operation of the micro-CHPs is more efficient, and with minimum excess heat. Moreover, findings show that a production subsidy in the form of a buy-back rate impacts the operation of micro-CHPs which may distort the short-term marginal price signal. Depending on the tariff rate, micro-CHPs may favor electricity-only production, resulting in increased costs, increased excess heat, and decreased efficiency. In addition, it was shown that a flat electric tariff rate may result in similar results as with an hourly retail rate, in particular for micro-CHP technologies with medium to high heat-to-power ratio. In the end, the goal of this research is to have a better understanding of the conditions that influence the penetration of micro-CHPs, the economic signals that impact their operation, and the complexities that a widespread penetration brings to energy systems. We observe that this technology lends itself to qualitatively different ways of providing electricity service at value as seen by the customers. Future research is needed to explore potential of micro-CHPs for including customer choice. / by Karen de los Ángeles Tapia-Ahumada. / Ph.D.