Thesis: S.M. in Engineering and Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program, September, 2020 / Cataloged from the official version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 73-75). / Companies around the world have established project development processes that begin with identifying an opportunity and end in execution with various iterations of developing design in between. Those various design iterations are critical to the success of any project. For complex projects, the inability to identify and evaluate feasible architectures in early design phases leads to long, iterative and costly design cycles. This thesis will explore application of both system engineering and system architecture tools and processes to early phase design of an offshore oil and gas processing facility. Base principles of decomposition, form to function mapping utilizing object-process methodology, and design structure matrices leading to development of tradespace modeling techniques will be explored. Application of these methods will provide insight to developing an understanding of the entire landscape of possible architectures and ensure that all options are considered in development of these complex systems. Application of these tools will identify new concepts, highlight preferred architectures, and identify variables or constraints requiring further architecting throughout the project development cycle. These outcomes highlight the ability to evaluate complex projects utilizing modeling tools ultimately leading to reduced design iterations and subsequently reduced development costs. / by Allison Johnson. / S.M. in Engineering and Management / S.M.inEngineeringandManagement Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program

Thesis: S.M. in Engineering and Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program, September, 2020 / Cataloged from the official version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 109-113). / Constellations of hundreds to thousands of satellites are becoming a reality. Nevertheless, the unprecedented scale of these systems is creating new sorts of challenges and risks for the designers and operators, mainly due to the high level of automation required. This study demonstrates how architectural decisions like the constellation topology, type of connectivity, and the level of automation affect the scalability, reliability, and safety of these constellations. A survey of past, current, and planned constellations was conducted to identify key architectural decisions and create representative architectures to analyze using a novel process called Conceptual Architecture Development. These high-level conceptual architectures were refined and analyzed using Systems Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA), and a qualitative assessment and a comparison of the emergent properties were performed. The results suggest that increased automation improves the scalability of the system, mostly when human controllers' responsibilities are shifted from individual satellite management to constellation management. However, increased automation also creates new responsibilities for human controllers and does not necessarily improve the safety and reliability of the system. Human-related causal factors found in lower levels of automation are mostly translated into software-related causal factors in higher levels of automation instead of being eliminated, and new types of hazards arise from the introduction of human-automation interfaces. Moreover, other architectural decisions, such as ground connectivity type, can negatively impact the safety and reliability of the constellation, mostly for slightly automated systems. This study shows that architectural decisions can significantly affect the resulting emergent properties of a system and that there is a tradeoff between automation, safety, and reliability that should not be overlooked. Designers and operators should analyze this tradeoff and the development and operational costs in order to select the best-suited architecture for their constellations based on their expertise, technology strategy, and constellation size. / by Alan Kharsansky. / S.M. in Engineering and Management / S.M.inEngineeringandManagement Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program

Thesis: S.M. in Engineering and Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program, May, 2020 / Cataloged from the official version of thesis. Page 74 blank. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 71-73). / Satellite communications systems are undergoing a modernization to efficient capacity allocation from a traditional "bent pipe" or static allocation. One challenge to address with a more precise usage of satellite resources is the change in user terminal traffic during a complete cycle of the system: collecting data, generating a constellation setting solution, transmitting the new solution to each satellite and executing changes to the satellite's parameters. As the system's cycle time grows the user's desired data rate changes causing an optimized solution based on an erroneous traffic model. This thesis proposes a comparison of single user models using a gradient boosting algorithm, and a multi-user model using Long- Short Term Memory neural networks (LSTM) or Gated Recurrent Unit neural networks (GRU) to forecast terminal traffic. Each algorithm was tuned using a two-stage design of experiments process consisting of a fractional screening design to identify impactful hyper-parameters and a central composite design to find optimal model settings. During a holdout period, the mean absolute percentage error using a 15-minute lag was 10.7% with a standard deviation of 2.6% over a month of forecasting. Networks using a GRU layer and tuned with Random Search had the best average performance with an error of 9.6% and standard deviation of 2.6%, outperforming the best found XG Boost models with an error of 9.9% and standard deviation of 3.5%. / by Damon E. Jones. / S.M. in Engineering and Management / S.M.inEngineeringandManagement Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program

Thesis: S.M. in Engineering and Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program, May, 2020 / Cataloged from the official version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 104-109). / The sharing economy in lodging such as Airbnb gives travelers many different kinds of accommodations in many different locations at cheap prices. However, many local governments are struggling with how to incorporate such businesses in their society. In Japan, although the business has the merit of absorbing the rapid growth of travelers from abroad, many local governments hesitate to accelerate these businesses because they are concerned about safety and security. Also, New York City is very negative about these businesses. The City thinks that the sharing economy in the lodging business is responsible for the increasing housing fees and the decrease in rental property vacancies in NYC. The aim of this study is to create systems that are safe and socially acceptable for Tokyo and NYC. In order to create the systems for Tokyo and NYC, we carry out three analyses. In the first analysis, we clarify for whom the architectures are made and what parties are related to the business. Hosts, guests, neighbors, local governments, investors and the home-sharing company are involved in the home-sharing ecosystems. Then a system model which shows the activities of the home-sharing business is created in order to get the insights of the platform for the potential architectures. Also the system model is used for investigating the safety risks in the home-sharing dynamics. The system model shows the stakeholders' activities such as the home-sharing transactions, hosts' services and the regulation of the local government. Next, we find the risks in the home-sharing ecosystems. We investigate more detailed interactions between the home-sharing company, neighbors, hosts and guests in the system model. Then we find all the possible risks in the interactions. This analysis is carried out for three different room types (Entire House, Private Room, Shared Room) because different kinds of risks are found in different room types. From the analysis, we find 10 important factors which consist of the performance of the architectures. (room types, ID check systems, entrance locks, key delivery methods, room locks, fire alarms and detectors, fire prevention facilities, security systems and detection methods for privacy invention such as hidden cameras) The potential architectures are created by combining the options in the 10 factors. We create more than fifteen thousand different architectures for Tokyo and NYC, separately. Then we evaluate these architectures based on safety, social acceptability, and convenience. The cultural and social factors are also investigated because they can lead to differences in the preferred architectures. The preferred architecture in Tokyo is found to be Entire House with the entrance lock of either a PIN code or a regular key, while it is Private Room with the entrance secured by a regular key in NYC. To extend the study, safe and socially acceptable architectures in other cities can be investigated by following the steps in this thesis. Introducing a house type accommodation would be another extension because only the apartment type is considered in this thesis to reduce the complication of calculation. Then there would be additional features that need to be considered for the house type accommodation, such as gardens. The cost in view of multiple stakeholders can also stretch the study. This includes hosts' OPEX, accommodation prices and costs of the sharing economy companies. / by Koji Nakashima. / S.M. in Engineering and Management / S.M.inEngineeringandManagement Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program

Thesis: S.M. in Engineering and Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program, September, 2020 / Cataloged from the official version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 73-76). / A major method of acquiring the rights to technology is through the procurement of intellectual property (IP), which allow companies to both extend their technological advantage while denying it to others. Public databases such as the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) track this exchange of technology rights. Thus, IP can be used as a public measure of value accumulation in the form of technology rights. As perceived value increases in the child company, M&A occurs . Extensive bodies of research exist concerning merger and acquisition (M&A) activity. This is likely due to the increasing trend of M&A in the market overall and the trillions of dollars involved. Between 1985 and 2018, US M&A value increased by 5.32% with 2017 US deals alone amounting to $1.7 trillion. These figures demonstrate the increasing importance of M&A. This is especially true in technology-centric industries where prior surveys identify a specific product or technology as the prime motivator for mergers. Understanding the transfer of technology and its value will become important in the future if high-tech industries also follow this increasing trend. This study explores M&A activity within the context of the semiconductor industry by focusing on two parent companies, Intel and AMD, and their child company acquisitions from 1997 to 2017. These acquisitions total more than $53 billion and extend into 35 separate high-tech industries outside the parents' core semiconductor business. In terms of IP as assets, all 91 acquired companies represent 5K in pipeline patent applications and 37K patents. The research suggests that there is a buildup of technological value as measured by the increase of applications and patents by the child company prior to the merger event with the parent (e.g. Intel or AMD). Additional relationships such as child company M&A acquisition value to IP quantities, IP lifespan to child company lifespan, and technology maturity are explored. This study also proposes and implements a TRL (Technology Readiness Level) scale specific to the semiconductor industry and maps it to IP cycle times (USPTO processing times). The application of TRLs to IP data creates an approximate idea as to which maturity of technology is most valuable: new concepts or mature ideas. Results suggest that the child companies seek technology IP with higher TRLs, and these child companies are in turn acquired by the parent company (e.g. Intel or AMD). / by James T. Pennington. / S.M. in Engineering and Management / S.M.inEngineeringandManagement Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program

Thesis: S.M. in Engineering and Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program, September, 2020 / Cataloged from the official version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 80-82). / Innovation is critical for any business. A key driver of innovation is developing and adopting new technology. One key component to company innovation is the choice to develop technology internally or in collaboration with external resources. This study explores the role of such collaborations in contributing to innovation in the energy industry through evaluation of patent data across both traditional oil and gas patents and renewable patents at both the individual patent-level and company-level. Evaluation of collaboration trends finds significant evidence of increasing and accelerating partnership frequency and size in the energy sector with the notable exception of renewables. Collaboration as defined by more than one assignee is linked to higher patent quality as defined by the PageRank of patent citations, consistent with previous findings. The novel finding is that interactions between patent technology and collaboration are meaningful. The results that renewables have less frequent and less effective partnerships is counter to expectations. One possible explanation is related to the maturity and focus areas of the industry. Company-level evaluation are largely inconclusive but do find limited evidence higher revenue deceases the effectiveness of partnering in general but increases the effectiveness of partnering with a research institute. Finally, financial evaluation findings are largely consistent with existing literature, notably patent quality is reflected in increased company revenue. Patent value as defined by quality per research and development spend largely aligns with patent quality. This suggests patent quality appears to be a good proxy for patent value and the relative cost differences associated with partnering do not appear significant on average. / by Daniel F. Rahill. / S.M. in Engineering and Management / S.M.inEngineeringandManagement Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program

Thesis: S.M. in Engineering and Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program, May, 2020 / Cataloged from the official version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 141-169). / Informational weapons may be more lethal and are certainly less predictable than the nuclear warheads capturing the focus of strategic and military planners since the 1940's. Genres considering mass persuasion and social and political movements remain disparate fields. In this thesis, four distinct academic verticals of thought are considered, concerning how to make sense of networks of ideas, people, and organizations. These genres include ancient rhetoric, enterprise design theory including stakeholder salience frameworks, social movement theory, and network science consisting of game and graph theory. The purpose of the thesis is to better understand the foundational forms that imbue meaning and create impact for social and political movements. The premise is to consider ostensibly inexplicable political events and strategies, termed "rhetorical fractures," that seem to be immediately and durably effective. Through analyzing aberrant events, this thesis hopes to identify the fundamental forms causing impact through social and political movements. / by John Bishop Ravenel. / S.M. in Engineering and Management / S.M.inEngineeringandManagement Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program

Thesis: S.M. in Engineering and Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program, September, 2020 / Cataloged from the official version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 87-89). / The business landscape for a typical super major oil company has shifted tremendously in the past few years, displaying in numerous aspects including the much lower oil and gas prices, the significant learning curves on unconventional assets, and the competition with alternative energy sources. In this challenging environment, integration and optimization of the full value chain serve as an excellent opportunity for the enterprise to improve its financial and social benefits. Utilizing architecting innovative enterprise strategy (ARIES) framework, literature reviews, inputs from subject matter experts, and digital applications, this thesis explores the potential of systematically transforming a typical major oil company to integrate its value chain. The current status of the enterprise was reviewed through ten enterprise lenses, the desired future of the enterprise was envisioned, and the step-by-step transformation was designed. Numerous methodologies were applied to effectively architect the transformation. The utilization of digital tools to integrate and optimize the value chain was assessed. The applications of digitization and digitalization were clarified; the three building blocks of the digital core of the enterprise, including data engineering, data science, and business intelligence, were explored. The pathway of adding value via data utilization across the value chain was investigated in the research, followed by two case studies of using digital solutions to optimize long-term and short-term benefits. Due to the complex nature of the value chain, compounded with the challenges from the broader ecosystem, a systematic approach to architect the transformation, primarily the ARIES framework, is found to exhibit high potential to fulfill the needs of the stakeholders. With a clear business vision, a robust digital core, and an integrated decision-making process, digital applications can be potent tools to enable the optimization of the value chain for an oil enterprise. / by Fei Yang. / S.M. in Engineering and Management / S.M.inEngineeringandManagement Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program

Thesis: S.M. in Engineering and Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program, February, 2021 / Cataloged from the official version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 193-199). / The United States no longer has the luxury of overspending on military weapon systems. Military programs have steadily cost more, taken longer, and delivered less. How can the Department of Defense reverse this trend? The Department of Defense prescribes the use of an Earned Value Management System (EVMS) to control large, complex engineering projects. According to academic literature, the earned value method can be an effective project control technique but also has significant flaws. Modern integrated project models allow for innovative new approaches to project control which may be superior to the earned value method. Department of Defense policy reveals that integrating cost, schedule, and scope; accurately forecasting project status to allow for proactive decision making; and effective risk mitigation are the most important features of a project control method. This thesis reviews earned value method research and Department of Defense EVMS policy. This thesis also evaluates four project control methods through an experiment that uses an integrated project model. Subject to the specific conditions represented in the model, a Multiple Risk Level model-based control method enabled more proactive decision making than a modified version of the earned value method in the experiment. However, the Multiple Risk Level model did not forecast or enable risk mitigation as well as the modified earned value method in the experiment. The results of this analysis suggest that the ideal project control technique depends on the goals, nature, and environment of the project. Therefore, the Department of Defense should use integrated project models to tailor project control strategies to best suit acquisition programs. / by Christopher E. Carson / S.M. in Engineering and Management / S.M.inEngineeringandManagement Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program

Thesis: S.M. in Engineering and Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program, May, 2020 / Cataloged from the official version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (page 41). / We propose a volatility trading system that comprises two uncorrelated components. The first component is astraddle long-short strategy which profits by anticipating changes in the volatility of stocks within the SP 500 Index.The second component is a filtered out-of-the-money put writing strategy on the SP 500 Index which profits by collecting premiums while avoiding losses that would occur during market selloffs by using the Absorption Ratio to detect fragile market regimes. We combine these two components into a portfolio by weighting them in such a way that they contribute equally to total portfolio risk.In addition,we include a dynamic hedging overlay to provide further protection to the portfolio. / by Bin Zhou. / S.M. in Engineering and Management / S.M.inEngineeringandManagement Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program