Resulting from the deregulation and prosperity of the economic and financial sectors in Asia during 1980s, a significant increase in cross-bordered financial transactions ultimately accelerated the region of Southeast Asia to be on a process of financial integration and consequently diminished opportunities for portfolio diversification. Financial Integration is a multidimensional process through which allocation of financial assets becomes lastly borderless. This purpose of this paper is to examine a progress thus far in capital market integration or preferentially, the co-movement of the equity markets between the U.S. and the Southeast Asian nations: Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines by employing the methodology of Gregory and Hansen Cointegration and Error Correction Analysis (ECM). The consequence of the U.S. market performance on each Southeast Asian national markets are extensively analyzed by decomposing monthly price-index time series into three distinct sub-periods based on an occurrence of the Subprime Mortgage Financial Crisis in 2007. The results indicate that these four emerging markets had been considerable influenced by the U.S. market performance, regardless of crisis or non-crisis periods. Nevertheless, some countries like Indonesia and the Philippines acted differently during the pre-crisis and crisis sub-periods respectively due to their domestic market infrastructure and regulation adjustment. However, these two markets had eventually turned to share an interdependent long-run relationship with the U.S. equity market since the ending of the Subprime financial downturn. Moreover, this finding suggests that ongoing capital market integration in the Southeast Asian region would mitigate portfolio diversification benefits for investors by virtue of increasing in correlation among securities and assets. Therefore, more exhaustive investigation about equity market integration is significantly beneficial in macroeconomic and financial perspective.

In this paper, we have employed non-linear model reexamine real interest parity (RIP) of five European economies with respect to the US. We focus on using linear and nonlinear unit root tests to test real interest rate differentials (RIRD). And we add time trend in the logistic and exponential smooth transition regression models to monthly data. The results are as follows. First, the evidence for the full-sample is favorable using three traditional unit root tests and one powerful nonlinear unit root test. Almost all economics are support real interest parity. Second, we use nonlinear error correction model to find which factors influence on RIRD. There are three economics influenced by both domestic and foreign factors at the same time.

This dissertation examines the causal relationship between inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth (GDP) in SADC countries. The study investigates, within a panel data context, whether causation is short-term, long-term or both; and explores whether the causal relationship between the two variables differs according to income level. The study covered a panel of 15 SADC countries over the period 1980-2012. In order to assess whether the causal relationship between FDI inflows and economic growth is dependent on the level of income, the study divided the SADC countries into two groups, namely, the low-income and the middleincome countries. The study used the recently developed panel data analysis methods to examine this causal relationship. It adopted a three stage approach, which consists of panel unit root, panel cointegration and Granger causality to examine the dynamic causal relationship between the two variables. Panel unit root results show that both variables in the two SADC country groups were integrated of order one. Panel cointegration tests showed that the variables for low-income country group were not cointegrated, while the variables for the middle-income countries were cointegrated. Since the low-income country group panels were not cointegrated, Grangercausality tests were conducted within a VAR framework, while causality tests for the middleincome country group were conducted within an ECM framework. Panel Granger causality results for the low-income countries showed no evidence of causality in either direction. However, for the middle-income countries’ panel, there was evidence of a unidirectional causal flow from GDP to FDI in both the long- and short- run. The study concludes that the FDI-led growth hypothesis does not apply to SADC countries. The results imply that the recent high economic growth rates recorded in the SADC region, especially middle-income countries, have been attracting FDI. In other words, it is economic growth that drives FDI inflows into the SADC region, and not vice versa. These findings have profound policy implications for the SADC region at large and individual countries. / Economics / MCOM (Economics)

This dissertation examines the causal relationship between inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth (GDP) in SADC countries. The study investigates, within a panel data context, whether causation is short-term, long-term or both; and explores whether the causal relationship between the two variables differs according to income level. The study covered a panel of 15 SADC countries over the period 1980-2012. In order to assess whether the causal relationship between FDI inflows and economic growth is dependent on the level of income, the study divided the SADC countries into two groups, namely, the low-income and the middleincome countries. The study used the recently developed panel data analysis methods to examine this causal relationship. It adopted a three stage approach, which consists of panel unit root, panel cointegration and Granger causality to examine the dynamic causal relationship between the two variables. Panel unit root results show that both variables in the two SADC country groups were integrated of order one. Panel cointegration tests showed that the variables for low-income country group were not cointegrated, while the variables for the middle-income countries were cointegrated. Since the low-income country group panels were not cointegrated, Grangercausality tests were conducted within a VAR framework, while causality tests for the middleincome country group were conducted within an ECM framework. Panel Granger causality results for the low-income countries showed no evidence of causality in either direction. However, for the middle-income countries’ panel, there was evidence of a unidirectional causal flow from GDP to FDI in both the long- and short- run. The study concludes that the FDI-led growth hypothesis does not apply to SADC countries. The results imply that the recent high economic growth rates recorded in the SADC region, especially middle-income countries, have been attracting FDI. In other words, it is economic growth that drives FDI inflows into the SADC region, and not vice versa. These findings have profound policy implications for the SADC region at large and individual countries. / Economics / M. Com. (Economics)