Forecasts of short term volcanic activity are generated using an event tree process that is driven by a set of empirical statistical models derived through logistic regression. Each of the logistic models are constructed from a sparse and geographically diverse dataset that was assembled from a collection of historic volcanic unrest episodes. The dataset consists of monitoring measurements (e.g. seismic), source modeling results, and historic eruption information. Incorporating this data into a single set of models provides a simple mechanism for simultaneously accounting for the geophysical changes occurring within the volcano and the historic behavior of analog volcanoes. A bootstrapping analysis of the training dataset allowed for the estimation of robust logistic model coefficients. Probabilities generated from the logistic models increase with positive modeling results, escalating seismicity, and high eruption frequency. The cross validation process produced a series of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves with areas ranging between 0.78 - 0.81, which indicate the algorithm has good predictive capabilities. In addition, ROC curves also allowed for the determination of a false positive rate and optimum detection threshold for each stage of the algorithm. The results demonstrate the logistic models are highly transportable and can compete with, and in some cases outperform, non-transportable empirical models trained with site specific information. The incorporation of source modeling results into the event tree’s decision making process has begun the transition of volcano monitoring applications from simple mechanized pattern recognition algorithms to a physical model based forecasting system.

L'éruption de 2010 du Merapi est la première grande éruption explosive du volcan qui a été observée instrumentalement. Dans ce travail, nous étudions les précurseurs de l'éruption et le comportement du volcan avant l'éruption en reliant les caractéristiques sismiques avec d'autres observations disponibles. Nous présentons les principaux aspects de l'activité sismique au cours de la crise de 2010, tels que la chronologie de la sismicité, l'évolution spatio-temporelle des positions de source de séisme et les changements de vitesse sismique. En effectuant des localisations absolues et relatives, nous obtenons des preuves de l'existence de zones asismiques, concordant avec des études antérieures, que nous interprétons comme des zones plus ductiles. La migration du magma de la partie profonde à la partie superficielle du conduit à travers la zone asismique supérieure est mise en évidence par un déplacement vers le haut des hypocentres. Nous analysons l'énergie sismique quantifiée par le RSAM calculé pour plusieurs bandes de fréquences. Ces fonctions affichent des accélérations claires dans les dernières semaines avant l'éruption. Ce comportement est utilisé pour effectuer des prévisions d'éruption volcanique rétrospective avec la méthode « Material Failure Forecast » ou FFM. Le début de la première éruption est estimé avec une bonne précision. Nous proposons une méthode originale de détection d'événement basée sur un rapport d'énergie. En utilisant cette méthode et la corrélation de la forme d'onde, nous identifions 10 familles de séismes similaires. Ces multiplets sismiques sont situés en dessous ou au -dessus de la zone asismique supérieure et sont composés soit d'événements volcano-tectoniques soit d'événements basse fréquence. Certains de ces groupes ont été actifs pendant plusieurs mois avant la crise éruptive alors qu'une famille qui comprend 119 événements répétitifs est apparue 20 heures avant le début de l'éruption. Nous estimons des variations de vitesse sismique, liées principalement à l'activité magmatique, en utilisant la coda des multiplets et les fonctions d'intercorrélation du bruit sismique. Ces variations montrent une forte variabilité spatiale et temporelle de leur amplitude et de leur signe. Bien qu'elles ne puissent pas être décrites par une simple tendance unique, ces variations de vitesse peuvent être considérées comme un précurseur de l'éruption. En utilisant les résultats précédents ainsi que d'autres observations, nous déterminons les particularités associées à la grande éruption explosive de 2010. En outre, nous proposons un scénario chronologique de l'activité pré- éruptive du Merapi. / The 2010 eruption of Merapi is the first large explosive eruption of the volcano that has been instrumentally observed. In this work, we study the eruption precursors and the pre-eruptive volcano behaviour by linking seismic features with other available observations. The main characteristics of the seismic activity during the 2010 crisis, including the chronology of seismicity, the spatio-temporal evolution of earthquake source positions and the seismic velocity changes, are presented. By performing absolute and relative locations, we obtain evidences of aseismic zones which are consistent with earlier studies and are interpreted as more ductile zones. Magma migration from the deep to the shallow part of the conduit through the upper aseismic zone is revealed by an upward shift of the hypocenters. We analyse the seismic energy quantified by RSAM calculated for several frequency bands. These functions display clear accelerations in the last few weeks before the eruption. This behaviour is used to perform hindsight eruption forecasting with the Material Failure Forecast method (FFM). The onset of the first eruption is estimated with a good precision. We propose an original method of event detection based on energy ratio. Using this method and waveform correlation, we identify 10 families of similar earthquakes. The seismic multiplets are located either below or above the upper aseismic zone and are composed of either volcano-tectonic or low-frequency events. Some of the clusters were active during several months before the eruptive crisis while a family that includes 119 repeating events appeared 20 hours before the eruption onset. Seismic velocity variations associated mainly with magmatic activity are estimated using the coda of both multiplets and noise cross correlation functions. These variations display strong temporal and spatial variability of their amplitude and sign. Although they cannot be described by a unique simple trend, these velocity variations can be considered as an eruption precursor. Using the preceding results together with other observations, we determine the specific features associated with the large explosive eruption of 2010. Furthermore, we propose a chronological scenario of the pre-eruptive activity of Merapi 2010 unrest.

Realistic probabilistic hazard forecasts for re-awakening volcanoes rely on making an accurate estimation of their past eruption frequency and magnitude for a period long enough to view systematic changes or evolution. Adding an in-depth knowledge of the local underlying magmatic or tectonic driving processes allows development of even more robust eruption forecasting models. Holocene tephra records preserved within lacustrine sediments and soils on and surrounding the andesitic stratovolcano of Mt. Taranaki (Egmont Volcano), New Zealand, were used to 1) compile an eruption catalogue that minimises bias to carry out frequency analysis, and 2) identify magmatic processes responsible for variations in activity of this intermittently awakening volcano. A new, highly detailed eruption history for Mt. Taranaki was compiled from sediment sequences containing Holocene tephra layers preserved beneath Lakes Umutekai and Rotokare, NE and SE of the volcano’s summit, respectively, with age control provided by radiocarbon dating. To combine the two partly concurrent tephra records both geochemistry (on titanomagnetite) and statistical measures of event concurrence were applied. Similarly, correlation was made to proximal pyroclastic sequences in all sectors around the 2518 m-high edifice. This record was used to examine geochemical variations (through titanomagnetite and bulk chemistry) at Mt. Taranaki in unprecedented sampling detail. To develop an unbiased sampling of eruption event frequency, a technique was developed to distinguish explosive, pumice-forming eruptions from dome-forming events recorded in medial ash as fine-grade ash layers. Recognising that exsolution lamellae in titanomagnetite result from oxidation processes within lava domes or plugs, their presence within ash deposits was used to distinguish falls elutriated from blockand- ash flows. These deposits are focused in particular catchments and are hence difficult to sample comprehensively. Excluding these events from temporal eruption records, the remaining, widespread pumice layers of sub-plinian eruptions at a single site of Lake Umutekai presented the lowest-bias sampling of the overall event frequency. The annual eruption frequency of Mt. Taranaki was found to be strongly cyclic with a 1500-2000 year periodicity. Titanomagnetite, glass and whole-rock chemistry of eruptives from Mt. Taranaki’s Holocene history all display distinctive compositional cycles that correspond precisely with the event frequency curve for this volcano. Furthermore, the largest known eruptions from the volcano involve the most strongly evolved magmas of their cycle and occur during the eruptive-frequency minimum, preceding the longest repose intervals known. Petrological evidence reveals a two-stage system of magma differentiation and assembly operating at Mt. Taranaki. Each of the identified 1500-2000 year cycles represent isolated magma batches that evolved at depth at the base of the crust before periodically feeding a mid-upper crustal magma storage system.