The purpose of this study was to compare the effectiveness of the classical estimator with that of a supplementary sample non-parametric empirical Bayes estimator in detecting an out-of-control situation arising in statistical quality control work. The investigation was accomplished through Monte Carlo simulation on the IBM-7040/1401 system at the Virginia Polytechnic Institute Computing Center, Blacksburg, Virginia. In most cases considered in this study, the sole criterion for accepting or rejecting the hypothesis that the industrial process is in control was the location of the estimate on the control chart for fraction defectives. If an estimate fell outside the 30 control limits, that particular batch was said to have been produced by an out-of-control system. In other cases the concept of "runs" was included as an additional criterion for acceptance or rejection. Also considered were various parameters, such as the mean in-control fraction defectives, the mean out-of-control fraction defectives, the~first sample size, the standard deviation of the supplementary sample estimates, and the number of past experiences used in computing the empirical Bayes estimator. The Monte Carlo studies showed that, for almost any set of parameter values, the empirical Bayes estimator is much more effective in detecting an out-of-control situation than is the classical estimator. The most notable advantage gained by using the empirical Bayes estimator is that long-range lack of detection is virtually impossible. / M.S.

M.S.

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The object of this paper was to study lower bounds ·for the variance of uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimators. The lower bounds of Cramer and Rao, Bhattacharyya, Hammersley, Chapman and Robbins, and Kiefer were derived and discussed. Each was compared with the other, showing their relative merits and shortcomings. Of the lower bounds considered all are greater than or equal to the Cramer-Rao lower bound. The Kiefer lower bound is as good as any of the others, or better. We were able to show that the Cramer-Rao lower bound is exactly the first Bhattacharyya lower bound. The Hammersley and the Chapman and Robbins lower bounds are identical when they both have the same parameter space, i.e., when Ω = (a,b). The use of the various lower bounds is illustrated in examples throughout the paper. / M.S.

Peter McCullagh (1983) outlined the theory of quasi-likelihood estimation in generalized linear models. Chiu (1988) showed that an iterated, reweighted least squares procedure applied to the periodogram produces estimates of spectral density model parameters for Gaussian univariate time series which have the same asymptotic variance as those produced by maximizing the true likelihood. In this dissertation, McCullagh's theory is combined with a functional analysis approach and extended to parametric estimation of the spectral density matrix components of a non-Gaussian bivariate time series. An asymptotic optimality theorem is given, which shows optimality of an iterated, reweighted least squares procedure within a class of procedures. However, the principal application of the theory is for parametric spectral estimation in the case of an observed "contaminated" Gaussian series X(t)+N(t), where the noise series is uncorrelated with the X series, and it is desired to estimate the spectrum of the X series. Previous literature suggests removing contaminated bands of the periodogram prior to analysis, but the results of the dissertation may be used to unbiasedly estimate the spectrum of f without a precise knowledge of which bands are contaminated. / Ph. D.

This dissertation investigates the learning scenarios where a high-dimensional parameter has to be estimated from a given sample of fixed size, often smaller than the dimension of the problem. The first part answers some open questions for the binary classification problem in the framework of active learning. Given a random couple (X,Y) with unknown distribution P, the goal of binary classification is to predict a label Y based on the observation X. Prediction rule is constructed from a sequence of observations sampled from P. The concept of active learning can be informally characterized as follows: on every iteration, the algorithm is allowed to request a label Y for any instance X which it considers to be the most informative. The contribution of this work consists of two parts: first, we provide the minimax lower bounds for the performance of active learning methods. Second, we propose an active learning algorithm which attains nearly optimal rates over a broad class of underlying distributions and is adaptive with respect to the unknown parameters of the problem. The second part of this thesis is related to sparse recovery in the framework of dictionary learning. Let (X,Y) be a random couple with unknown distribution P. Given a collection of functions H, the goal of dictionary learning is to construct a prediction rule for Y given by a linear combination of the elements of H. The problem is sparse if there exists a good prediction rule that depends on a small number of functions from H. We propose an estimator of the unknown optimal prediction rule based on penalized empirical risk minimization algorithm. We show that the proposed estimator is able to take advantage of the possible sparse structure of the problem by providing probabilistic bounds for its performance.

Thesis (PhD (Statistics and Actuarial Science))--University of Stellenbosch, 2007. / The smoothing of time series plays a very important role in various practical applications. Estimating the signal and removing the noise is the main goal of smoothing. Traditionally linear smoothers were used, but nonlinear smoothers became more popular through the years. From the family of nonlinear smoothers, the class of median smoothers, based on order statistics, is the most popular. A new class of nonlinear smoothers, called LULU smoothers, was developed by using the minimum and maximum selectors. These smoothers have very attractive mathematical properties. In this thesis their statistical properties are investigated and compared to that of the class of median smoothers. Smoothing, together with related concepts, are discussed in general. Thereafter, the class of median smoothers, from the literature is discussed. The class of LULU smoothers is defined, their properties are explained and new contributions are made. The compound LULU smoother is introduced and its property of variation decomposition is discussed. The probability distributions of some LULUsmoothers with independent data are derived. LULU smoothers and median smoothers are compared according to the properties of monotonicity, idempotency, co-idempotency, stability, edge preservation, output distributions and variation decomposition. A comparison is made of their respective abilities for signal recovery by means of simulations. The success of the smoothers in recovering the signal is measured by the integrated mean square error and the regression coefficient calculated from the least squares regression of the smoothed sequence on the signal. Finally, LULU smoothers are practically applied.

Dissertation (PhD)--University of Stellenbosch, 2007. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: It is well known that ordinary least squares (OLS) procedures are sensitive to deviations from the classical Gaussian assumptions (outliers) as well as data aberrations in the design space. The two major data aberrations in the design space are collinearity and high leverage. Leverage points can also induce or hide collinearity in the design space. Such leverage points are referred to as collinearity influential points. As a consequence, over the years, many diagnostic tools to detect these anomalies as well as alternative procedures to counter them were developed. To counter deviations from the classical Gaussian assumptions many robust procedures have been proposed. One such class of procedures is the Koenker and Bassett (1978) Regressions Quantiles (RQs), which are natural extensions of order statistics, to the linear model. RQs can be found as solutions to linear programming problems (LPs). The basic optimal solutions to these LPs (which are RQs) correspond to elemental subset (ES) regressions, which consist of subsets of minimum size to estimate the necessary parameters of the model. On the one hand, some ESs correspond to RQs. On the other hand, in the literature it is shown that many OLS statistics (estimators) are related to ES regression statistics (estimators). Therefore there is an inherent relationship amongst the three sets of procedures. The relationship between the ES procedure and the RQ one, has been noted almost “casually” in the literature while the latter has been fairly widely explored. Using these existing relationships between the ES procedure and the OLS one as well as new ones, collinearity, leverage and outlier problems in the RQ scenario were investigated. Also, a lasso procedure was proposed as variable selection technique in the RQ scenario and some tentative results were given for it. These results are promising. Single case diagnostics were considered as well as their relationships to multiple case ones. In particular, multiple cases of the minimum size to estimate the necessary parameters of the model, were considered, corresponding to a RQ (ES). In this way regression diagnostics were developed for both ESs and RQs. The main problems that affect RQs adversely are collinearity and leverage due to the nature of the computational procedures and the fact that RQs’ influence functions are unbounded in the design space but bounded in the response variable. As a consequence of this, RQs have a high affinity for leverage points and a high exclusion rate of outliers. The influential picture exhibited in the presence of both leverage points and outliers is the net result of these two antagonistic forces. Although RQs are bounded in the response variable (and therefore fairly robust to outliers), outlier diagnostics were also considered in order to have a more holistic picture. The investigations used comprised analytic means as well as simulation. Furthermore, applications were made to artificial computer generated data sets as well as standard data sets from the literature. These revealed that the ES based statistics can be used to address problems arising in the RQ scenario to some degree of success. However, due to the interdependence between the different aspects, viz. the one between leverage and collinearity and the one between leverage and outliers, “solutions” are often dependent on the particular situation. In spite of this complexity, the research did produce some fairly general guidelines that can be fruitfully used in practice. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Dit is bekend dat die gewone kleinste kwadraat (KK) prosedures sensitief is vir afwykings vanaf die klassieke Gaussiese aannames (uitskieters) asook vir data afwykings in die ontwerpruimte. Twee tipes afwykings van belang in laasgenoemde geval, is kollinearitiet en punte met hoë hefboom waarde. Laasgenoemde punte kan ook kollineariteit induseer of versteek in die ontwerp. Na sodanige punte word verwys as kollinêre hefboom punte. Oor die jare is baie diagnostiese hulpmiddels ontwikkel om hierdie afwykings te identifiseer en om alternatiewe prosedures daarteen te ontwikkel. Om afwykings vanaf die Gaussiese aanname teen te werk, is heelwat robuuste prosedures ontwikkel. Een sodanige klas van prosedures is die Koenker en Bassett (1978) Regressie Kwantiele (RKe), wat natuurlike uitbreidings is van rangorde statistieke na die lineêre model. RKe kan bepaal word as oplossings van lineêre programmeringsprobleme (LPs). Die basiese optimale oplossings van hierdie LPs (wat RKe is) kom ooreen met die elementale deelversameling (ED) regressies, wat bestaan uit deelversamelings van minimum grootte waarmee die parameters van die model beraam kan word. Enersyds geld dat sekere EDs ooreenkom met RKe. Andersyds, uit die literatuur is dit bekend dat baie KK statistieke (beramers) verwant is aan ED regressie statistieke (beramers). Dit impliseer dat daar dus ‘n inherente verwantskap is tussen die drie klasse van prosedures. Die verwantskap tussen die ED en die ooreenkomstige RK prosedures is redelik “terloops” van melding gemaak in die literatuur, terwyl laasgenoemde prosedures redelik breedvoerig ondersoek is. Deur gebruik te maak van bestaande verwantskappe tussen ED en KK prosedures, sowel as nuwes wat ontwikkel is, is kollineariteit, punte met hoë hefboom waardes en uitskieter probleme in die RK omgewing ondersoek. Voorts is ‘n lasso prosedure as veranderlike seleksie tegniek voorgestel in die RK situasie en is enkele tentatiewe resultate daarvoor gegee. Hierdie resultate blyk belowend te wees, veral ook vir verdere navorsing. Enkel geval diagnostiese tegnieke is beskou sowel as hul verwantskap met meervoudige geval tegnieke. In die besonder is veral meervoudige gevalle beskou wat van minimum grootte is om die parameters van die model te kan beraam, en wat ooreenkom met ‘n RK (ED). Met sodanige benadering is regressie diagnostiese tegnieke ontwikkel vir beide EDs en RKe. Die belangrikste probleme wat RKe negatief beinvloed, is kollineariteit en punte met hoë hefboom waardes agv die aard van die berekeningsprosedures en die feit dat RKe se invloedfunksies begrensd is in die ruimte van die afhanklike veranderlike, maar onbegrensd is in die ontwerpruimte. Gevolglik het RKe ‘n hoë affiniteit vir punte met hoë hefboom waardes en poog gewoonlik om uitskieters uit te sluit. Die finale uitset wat verkry word wanneer beide punte met hoë hefboom waardes en uitskieters voorkom, is dan die netto resultaat van hierdie twee teenstrydige pogings. Alhoewel RKe begrensd is in die onafhanklike veranderlike (en dus redelik robuust is tov uitskieters), is uitskieter diagnostiese tegnieke ook beskou om ‘n meer holistiese beeld te verkry. Die ondersoek het analitiese sowel as simulasie tegnieke gebruik. Voorts is ook gebruik gemaak van kunsmatige datastelle en standard datastelle uit die literatuur. Hierdie ondersoeke het getoon dat die ED gebaseerde statistieke met ‘n redelike mate van sukses gebruik kan word om probleme in die RK omgewing aan te spreek. Dit is egter belangrik om daarop te let dat as gevolg van die interafhanklikheid tussen kollineariteit en punte met hoë hefboom waardes asook dié tussen punte met hoë hefboom waardes en uitskieters, “oplossings” dikwels afhanklik is van die bepaalde situasie. Ten spyte van hierdie kompleksiteit, is op grond van die navorsing wat gedoen is, tog redelike algemene riglyne verkry wat nuttig in die praktyk gebruik kan word.

A research report submitted to the Faculty of Engineering and the Built Environment, University of the Witwatersrand, in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Mining Engineering. February, 2016 / Mineral Resource estimation provides an assessment of the quantity, quality, shape and grade distribution of a mineralised deposit. The resource estimation process involves; the assessment of data available, creation of geological and/or grade models for the deposit, statistical and geostatistical analyses of the data, as well as determination of the appropriate grade interpolation methods. In the grade estimation process, grades are interpolated/extrapolated into a two or three – dimensional resource block model of a deposit. The process uses a search volume ellipsoid, centred on each block, to select samples used for estimation. Traditionally, a global orientated search ellipsoid is used during the estimation process. An improvement in the estimation process can be achieved if the direction and continuity of mineralisation is acknowledged by aligning the search ellipsoid accordingly. The misalignment of the search ellipsoid by just a few degrees can impact the estimation results. Representing grade continuity in undulating and folded structures can be a challenge to correct grade estimation. One solution to this problem is to apply the method of Dynamic Anisotropy in the estimation process. This method allows for the anisotropy rotation angles defining the search ellipsoid and variogram model, to directly follow the trend of the mineralisation for each cell within a block model. This research report will describe the application of Dynamic Anisotropy to a slightly undulating area which lies on a gently folded limb of a syncline at Driefontein gold mine and where Ordinary Kriging is used as the method of estimation. In addition, the optimal Dynamic Anisotropy resolution that will provide an improvement in grade estimates will be determined. This will be achieved by executing the estimation process on various block model grid sizes. The geostatistical literature research carried out for this research report highlights the importance of Dynamic Anisotropy in resource estimation. Through the application and analysis on a real-life dataset, this research report will put theories and opinions about Dynamic Anisotropy to the test.

A research project report submitted to the Faculty of Engineering and the Built Environment, University of the Witwatersrand, in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Masters of Science in Engineering, 2017 / The assessment of local and spatial uncertainty associated with a regionalised variable such as nickel grade at Hunters Road magmatic sulphide deposit is one of the critical elements in the resource estimation. The study focused on the application of Multiple Indicator Kriging (MIK) and Sequential Gaussian Simulation (SGS) in the estimation of recoverable resources and the assessment of grade uncertainty at Hunters Road’s Western orebody. The Hunters Road Western orebody was divided into two domains namely the Eastern and the Western domains and was evaluated based on 172 drill holes. MIK and SGS were performed using Datamine Studio RM module. The combined Mineral Resources estimate for the Western orebody at a cut-off grade of 0.40%Ni is 32.30Mt at an average grade of 0.57%Ni, equivalent to 183kt of contained nickel metal. SGS results indicated low uncertainty associated with Hunters Road nickel project with 90% probability of an average true grade above cut-off, lying within +/-3% of the estimated block grade. The estimate of the mean based on SGS was 0.55%Ni and 0.57% Ni for the Western and Eastern domains respectively. MIK results were highly comparable with SGS E-type estimates while the most recent Ordinary Kriging (OK) based estimates by BNC dated May 2006, overstated the resources tonnage and underestimated the grade compared to the MIK estimates. It was concluded that MIK produced better estimates of recoverable resources than OK. However, since only E-type estimates were produced by MIK, post processing of “composite” conditional cumulative distribution function (ccdf) results using a relevant change of support algorithm such as affine correction is recommended. Although SGS produced a good measure of uncertainty around nickel grades, post processing of realisations using a different software such as Isatis has been recommended together with combined simulation of both grade and tonnage. / XL2018