Thesis (Ph. D.)--West Virginia University, 2010. / Title from document title page. Document formatted into pages; contains vii, 199 p. : ill. (some col.), maps (some col.). Includes abstract. Includes bibliographical references.

The objective of this research is to determine the effect the North Dakota Ethanol Production Incentive has on ethanol plant survivability. This thesis uses a stochastic simulation to show the financial performance of an ethanol plant with and without subsidy support. Historical corn and ethanol prices are used to simulate market conditions a typical ethanol might face. Using the forecast prices, an ethanol plant balance sheet was created to show how a plant would perform in normal market conditions, as well as how the plant would perform with the Ethanol Production Incentive and also with alternative subsidy structures that were developed. The results showed the Ethanol Production Incentive was the most effective subsidy tested and it does appear to improve plant balance sheets to a certain extent during a downturn.

New federal legislation proposes to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with biofuel production. To comply, existing corn ethanol plants will have to invest in new more carbon efficient production technology such as dry fractionation. However, this will be challenging for the industry given the present financial environment of surplus production, recent profit declines, numerous bankruptcies, and lender imposed covenants. This study examines a dry-mill ethanol firm's ability to invest in dry fractionation technology in the face of declining profitability and stringent lender cash flow repayment constraints. Firm level risk aversion also is considered when determining a firm's willingness to invest in dry fractionation technology. A Monte Carlo simulation model is constructed to estimate firm profits, cash flows, and changes in equity following new investment in fractionation to determine an optimal investment strategy. The addition of a lender-imposed sweep, whereby a percentage of free cash flow is used to pay off extra debt in high profit years, reduces the firm's ability to build equity and increases bankruptcy risk under investment. However, the sweep increases long-run equity because total financing costs are reduced with accelerated debt repayment. This thesis shows that while ethanol firm profits are uncertain, the lender's imposition of a sweep combined with increased profit from dry fractionation technology help the firm increase long-run financial resiliency.

Thesis (M.S.)--Rochester Institute of Technology, 2009. / Typescript. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 74-78).

Thesis (M.S.)--Mississippi State University. Department of Agricultural Economics. / Title from title screen. Includes bibliographical references.

Corn-based ethanol production has increased dramatically in the past ten years, causing an increase in demand for corn by ethanol producers and an increase in production of ethanol by-products such as distillers' grains. The increase in ethanol production can be attributed to ethanol policy at the state and federal levels. Because of the increase in production of corn-based ethanol, cattle producers face greater competition for a major feed source, corn, and greater supply of an emerging feed source, distillers' grains. The objective of this study is to analyze and quantify the effects of ethanol policy on cattle production. A theoretical model and an econometric model are used to fulfill the objectives of this study. The theoretical model contains an ethanol model and a general livestock model. Results of the theoretical model present the possibilities of ethanol policy affecting cattle production. The econometric model identifies the indirect and direct effects of ethanol policy on cattle production. The results of the econometric model indicate that there is a relationship between ethanol policy, specifically the Renewable Fuel Standard, and cattle production.

This thesis develops quantitative methods for evaluation and design of large-scale biofuel production systems with a particular focus on bioreactor-based fuel systems. In Chapter 2, a lifecycle assessment (LCA) method is integrated with chemical process modeling to select from different process designs the one that maximizes the energy efficiency and minimizes the environmental impact of a production system. An algae-based ethanol production technology, which is in the process of commercialization, is used as a case study. Motivated by this case study, Chapter 3 studies the selection of process designs and production capacity of highly distributed bioreactor-based fuel system from an economic perspective. Nonlinear optimization models based on net present value maximization are developed that aim at selecting the optimal capacities of production equipment for both integrated and distributed-centralized process designs on symmetric production layouts. Global sensitivity analysis based on Monte Carlo estimates is performed to show the impact of different parameters on the optimal capacity decision and the corresponding net present value. Conditional Value at Risk optimization is used to compare the optimal capacity for a risk-neutral planner versus a risk-averse decision maker. Chapter 4 studies mobile distributed processing in biofuel industry as vehicle routing problem and production equipment location with an underlying pipeline network as facility location problem with a focus on general production costs. Formulations and algorithms are developed to explore how fixed cost and concavity in the production cost increases the theoretical complexity of these problems.