Thesis (M.A. in National Security Affairs)--Naval Postgraduate School, June 2003. / Thesis advisor(s): T.V. Paul, James Russel. Includes bibliographical references (p. 97-100). Also available online.

This thesis outlines hydrological, political, economic and social facts related to the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers dispute between the three major riparian states, Turkey, Syria and Iraq. Once the factual base was constructed, it describes how each of the states uses water based on direct quotes, inferences and interpretations from secondary literature, interviews and other primary sources. The author used these narratives to analyze the current level of coordination and prospects for further cooperation among the riparians. Using these narratives, the author has drafted an agreement that could be a starting point from which the riparian states could address regional water issues.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Texas at Austin, 2006. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references.

Since the rise of the first urban centers, the Middle Euphrates has functioned as a routeway between Mesopotamia and Syria. The towns and caravanseri located along the river served as important conduits of international exchange and as frontier towns buffering larger empires to the east and west. My research has investigated one small district along the Middle Euphrates. I have tried to document not only site distribution but also levels of communication between the middle valley of Euphrates and the southern Mesopotamian and western Syria core areas. Site distribution patterns show over and over again the location of entrepots, staging posts, and forts in this district. The chronological span of this study extends from ca 10,000 B.C. to A.D. 1980, an identifiable longue duree in which recurring cycles of conquest, depopulation, and revivification can be discerned. The area appears to have fared best during periods of intense competition among rival states for access to long-distance trade routes. However, when interactions between rival states in the stronger core areas of Syria and Mesopotamia resulted in the formation of empires whose capitals and interests lay far from the Middle Euphrates, the towns of this region perished. Nevertheless, the capture of the Middle Euphrates appears to have always been an important strategic battle in expansionistic efforts of such empires. I have analyzed the spatial distribution of sites in this region using data from a multi-stage field program. This program combined data from reconnaissance survey, intensive surface survey, intensive jeep survey, and test excavations at the Uruk period site of Tall Qraya with information from the broad-scale excavations at the regional center at Tall Harīrī and the provincial center at Tall al 'Ashārah. It is only with such archaeological data of long time depth gathered from many sources, in combination with information from textual sources, that one can attempt a "total history" of this area.

This thesis investigates the mechanisms that might be used to determine the rights and obligations of Turkey, Syria and Iraq to govern the Tigris and Euphrates River Basin (TERB) in accordance with the international water law. In particular, it advocates for the protection of Iraq?s equitable rights through the establishment of a legal and institutional framework for joint use of the TERB. As a contribution towards addressing the issues of transboundary water law at the TERB level, this thesis explores the possibilities for potential cooperation between the three riparian States of the TERB through forming a legally binding treaty under the auspices of contemporary international water law. From this perspective, the thesis hypothesises that international law provides a solid basis on which the State of Iraq can rely on for achieving its legal entitlements to the equitable and reasonable use of the TERB. In this context, the thesis first examines international law in order to establish how it applies to the TERB. Next, the thesis considers how the legal positions of the riparian States can be determined under international law. When the aforesaid requirements are met, the thesis makes recommendations on how international water law can strengthen the legal framework for equitable joint use of the TERB. The thesis offers the methodology and analytical framework that deals with different relevant issues covered within the scope of the thesis. Later on, water uses within the TERB are discussed, followed by a literature review of publications on contemporary Middle East transboundary water conflict and cooperation. Afterwords, the thesis examines the applicable international law and international water law to the riparian States of the TERB. Finally, it explores the legal regime of the inter-State relationships in order to foster improved transboundary water management of the TERB.

This thesis project addresses Islamic water management by presenting case studies on regional water issues and analyzing the extent to which Muslim-majority states behave in a way consistent with Islamic shariah law. The case studies presented in this thesis address both international cooperation related to the management of trans-boundary water basins (the Nile and Tigris-Euphrates River Basins) and domestic water management strategies employed by Muslim-majority states in the MENA region (Jordan and Yemen). In each case, it is not clear that there is consistency between the Islamic ideals discussed by academics and the actual techniques employed by various states. In international attempts at managing the shared waters of the Nile and Tigris-Euphrates Basins, the fact that many riparian states have Muslim-majority populations does not appear to make the management of trans-boundary resources any easier or more successful. The implications for Islamic water management at the domestic level is also unclear – with shariah playing a positive role in Jordanian attempts at water conservation but promoting the over-exploitation of resources in Yemen. Although shariah appears to play a limited role in the management of trans-boundary water resources, it seems to be better suited for informing how states internally manage their endowments of freshwater resources. / text

Snow indicates the potential stored water volume that is an important source of water supply, which has been the most valuable and indispensable natural resource throughout the history of the world. Euphrates and Tigris, having the biggest dams of Turkey, are the two largest trans-boundary rivers that originate in Turkey and pass throughout the water deficit nations Syria, Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia bringing life as well as water all their way. Snowmelt runoff originating from the mountains of Eastern Turkey accounts for 60 to 70 % of total annual discharge observed in Euphrates and Tigris. For an optimum operation of the dams, maximizing energy production, mitigation of floods and satisfying water rights, hydrological models which can both simulate and forecast the river discharges of Euphrates and Tigris are needed. In this study a hydrological model, snowmelt runoff model (SRM), is used in conjunction with remote sensing and geographic information systems to forecast the river discharges in the headwaters of Euphrates River, Upper Euphrates Basin. NOAA and MODIS satellite images were used to derive the snow covered area (SCA) information required by SRM. Linear reduction methodologies based on accumulated air temperature, with constant or varying gradient, were developed to get the continuous daily SCA values from the discrete daily satellite images. Temperature and precipitation forecasts were gathered from two different numerical weather prediction models, namely European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Mesoscale Model Version 5 (MM5) from Turkish State Meteorological Services. These data sets provided t+24 hour forecasts of both temperature and precipitation. Temperature, precipitation and SCA information are fed into SRM. Discharge forecasts obtained from the model outputs are compared with the observed values. The overall performance of the model was seen as promising. Possible reasons of the mismatches between the forecasted and observed values are searched. Experiences gained throughout the study are summarized and recommendations on further forecast studies are mentioned.

The Tigris and Euphrates are international rivers vital to the four countries through which they flow: Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Iran. The population in the region has more than doubled in less than thirty years, and irrigated agriculture, hydroelectric power generation, industrialization, and urbanization have increased. All of these developments require more water, and the dependence of the riparian nations on the waters of the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers has become apparent, as has the need for comprehensive, basin-wide management of water resources. At present the riparians have shown some concern about the management of water in the two rivers, although no consensus exists as to the precise nature of the problem or what should be done to resolve it. This policy-oriented dissertation attempts to help frame the policy issues of managing the waters of the Tigris and Euphrates basin. It also seeks to provide an understanding of the policy process and to meet the intelligence needs of policy-makers with regard to the future management of these international waterways. Finally, it provides strategies for developing and implementing a cooperative water policy for this international basin.

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