The growing application of risk analysis in dam safety, especially for the owners of large numbers of dams (e.g., U.S. Army Corps of Engineers), has motivated the development of a new tool (DAMRAE) for event tree based dam safety risk analysis. Various theoretical challenges were overcome in formulating the computational framework of DAMRAE and several new computational concepts were introduced. The concepts of Connectivity and Pedigree matrices are proposed to quantify the user-drawn event tree structures with proper accounting of interdependencies among the event tree branches. A generic calculation of Common-Cause Adjustment for the non-mutually exclusive failure modes is implemented along with introducing the new concepts of system response probability and consequence freezing. New output presentation formats such as cumulative risk estimate vs. initiating variable plots to analyze the increase of an incremental (annualized) risk estimate as a function of initiating variable are introduced. An additional consideration is given to the non-breach risk estimates in the risk modeling and new output formats such as non-breach F-N and F-$ charts are included as risk analysis outputs. DAMRAE, a Visual Basic.NET based framework, provides a convenient platform to structure the risk assessment of a dam in its existing state and for alternatives or various stages of implementing a risk reduction plan. The second chapter of the dissertation presents the architectural framework of DAMRAE and describes the underlying theoretical and computational logic employed in the software. An example risk assessment is presented in the third chapter to demonstrate the DAMRAE functionalities. In the fourth chapter, the DAMRAE framework is extended into DAMRAE-U to incorporate uncertainty analysis functionality. Various aspects and requirements reviewed for uncertainty analysis in the context of dam safety risk assessment and theoretical challenges overcome to develop the computational framework for DAMRAE-U are described in this chapter. The capabilities of DAMRAE-U are illustrated in the fifth chapter, which contains an example dam safety risk assessment with uncertainty analysis. The dissertation concludes with a summary of DAMRAE features and recommendations for further work in the sixth chapter.

This thesis deals with design of a suitable approach for managing the supply of spare parts for machines approaching decommissioning. The appropriate balance between outstanding risks related to equipment downtime and costs of holding spare parts is predicted by proposed systematic algorithm. Determination of key parameters affecting the whole process of spare parts inventory management and their subsequent use as a basis for Event Tree Analysis lead to finding an optimum set-up, which mitigates the overall impact of the planned reduction in spare parts storage levels. The new approach has a number of advantages including versatility of application for many types of machines, as well as a different outlook on a solution for the current issue in spare parts management.

Prescriptively, the requirement of fire safety protection systems for distribution substations is not provided in the compliance document for fire safety to the New Zealand Building Code. Therefore, the New Zealand Fire Service (NZFS) has proposed a list of fire safety protection requirements for distribution substations in a letter, dated 10th July 2002. A review by Nyman [1], has considered the fire safety requirements proposed by the NZFS and discussed the issues with a number of fire engineers over the last three years. Nyman concerned that one of the requirements regarding the four hour fire separation between the distribution substation and the interior spaces of the building may not be necessary when considering the risk exposure to the building occupants in different situations, such as the involvement of the sprinkler systems and the use of transformers with a lower fire hazard. Fire resistance rating (FRR) typically means the time duration for which passive fire protection system, such as fire barriers, fire walls and other fire rated building elements, can maintain its integrity, insulation and stability in a standard fire endurance test. Based on the literature review and discussions with industry experts, it is found that failure of the passive fire protection system in a real fire exposure could potentially occur earlier than the time indicated by the fire resistance rating derived from the standard test depending on the characteristics of the actual fire (heat release rate, fire load density and fire location) and the characteristics of the fire compartment (its geometric, ventilation conditions, opening definition, building services and equipment). Hence, it is known that a higher level of fire safety, such as 4 hour fire rated construction and use of sprinkler system, may significantly improve the fire risk to health of safety of occupants in the building; however, they could never eliminate the risk. This report presents a fire engineering Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) on a transformer fire initiating in a distribution substation inside a high-rise residential and commercial mixeduse building. It compares the fire safety protection requirements for distribution substations from the NZFS to other relevant documents worldwide: the regulatory standards in New Zealand, Australia and United States of America, as well as the non-regulatory guidelines from other stakeholders, such as electrical engineering organisation, insurance companies and electricity providers. This report also examines the characteristics of historical data for transformer fires in distribution substations both in New Zealand and United States of America buildings. Reliability of active fire safety protection systems, such as smoke detection systems and sprinkler systems is reviewed in this research. Based on the data analysis results, a fire risk estimate is determined using an Event Tree Analysis (ETA) for a total of 14 scenarios with different fire safety designs and transformer types for a distribution substation in a high-rise residential and commercial mixed-use building. In Scenario 1 to 10 scenarios, different combinations of fire safety systems are evaluated with the same type of transformer, Flammable liquid (mineral oil) insulated transformer. In Scenario 11 to Scenario 14, two particular fire safety designs are selected as a baseline for the analysis of transformer types. Two types of transformer with a low fire hazard are used to replace the flammable liquid (mineral oil) insulated transformer in a distribution substation. These are less flammable liquid (silicone oil) insulated transformers and dry type (dry air) transformers. The entire fire risk estimate is determined using the software package @Risk4.5. The results from the event tree analysis are used in the cost-benefit analysis. The cost-benefit ratios are measured based on the reduced fire risk exposures to the building occupants, with respect to the investment costs of the alternative cases, from its respective base case. The outcomes of the assessment show that the proposed four hour fire separation between the distribution substations and the interior spaces of the building, when no sprinkler systems are provided, is not considered to be the most cost-effective alternative to the life safety of occupants, where the cost-benefit ratio of this scenario is ranked fifth. The most cost-effective alternative is found to be the scenario with 30 minute fire separation and sprinkler system installed. In addition to the findings, replacing a flammable liquid insulated transformer with a less flammable liquid insulated transformer or a dry type transformer is generally considered to be economical alternatives. From the QRA analysis, it is concluded that 3 hour fire separation is considered to be appropriate for distribution substations, containing a flammable liquid insulated transformer and associated equipment, in non-sprinklered buildings. The fire ratings of the separation construction can be reduced to 30 minute FRR if sprinkler system is installed. This conclusion is also in agreement with the requirements of the National Fire Protection Association (NFPA).

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The thesis deals with project management body of knowledge with focus on a risk management. It explained the importance of risk management in software developing projects. Risk management cycle and used methodology is described. The core unit of second part is requirements analysis for risk management support system, description of the application via UML and implementation of application which was created in development environment NetBeans IDE 6.5 in Java language. Conclusion of my thesis contains a short summary and possible way of extension.