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Real and nominal effects of monetary policy shocksBhuiyan, Mohammad Rokonuzzaman 20 August 2004
Using Canadian data we estimate the effects of monetary policy shocks on various real and nominal variables using a fully recursive VAR model. We decompose the nominal interest rate into an ex-ante real interest rate and inflationary expectations using the Blanchard-Quah structural VAR model with the identifying restriction that ex-ante real interest rate shocks have but a temporary impact on the nominal interest rate. The inflationary expectations are then employed to estimate a policy reaction function that identifies monetary policy shocks. We find that a positive shock introduced by raising the monetary aggregates raises inflationary expectations and temporarily lowers the ex-ante real interest rate. As well, it depreciates the Canadian dollar and generates other macro effects consistent with conventional monetary theory although these effects are not statistically significant. Using the overnight target rate as the monetary policy instrument we find that a contractionary monetary policy shock lowers inflationary expectations and raises the ex-ante real interest. Such a contractionary monetary policy shock also appreciates the Canadian currency, decreases industrial output and increases the unemployment rate. We obtain qualitatively better results using the overnight target rate rather than a monetary aggregate as the monetary policy instrument. Our estimated results are robust to various modifications of the basic VAR model and do not encounter empirical anomalies such as the liquidity and exchange rate puzzles found in some previous VAR studies of the effects of monetary policy shocks in an open economy.
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Real and nominal effects of monetary policy shocksBhuiyan, Mohammad Rokonuzzaman 20 August 2004 (has links)
Using Canadian data we estimate the effects of monetary policy shocks on various real and nominal variables using a fully recursive VAR model. We decompose the nominal interest rate into an ex-ante real interest rate and inflationary expectations using the Blanchard-Quah structural VAR model with the identifying restriction that ex-ante real interest rate shocks have but a temporary impact on the nominal interest rate. The inflationary expectations are then employed to estimate a policy reaction function that identifies monetary policy shocks. We find that a positive shock introduced by raising the monetary aggregates raises inflationary expectations and temporarily lowers the ex-ante real interest rate. As well, it depreciates the Canadian dollar and generates other macro effects consistent with conventional monetary theory although these effects are not statistically significant. Using the overnight target rate as the monetary policy instrument we find that a contractionary monetary policy shock lowers inflationary expectations and raises the ex-ante real interest. Such a contractionary monetary policy shock also appreciates the Canadian currency, decreases industrial output and increases the unemployment rate. We obtain qualitatively better results using the overnight target rate rather than a monetary aggregate as the monetary policy instrument. Our estimated results are robust to various modifications of the basic VAR model and do not encounter empirical anomalies such as the liquidity and exchange rate puzzles found in some previous VAR studies of the effects of monetary policy shocks in an open economy.
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Použitie metód viackriteriálneho rozhodovania pre hodnotenie výdajových aktivít v metodike cieľového rozpočtovania / The using of multi-criteria decision making methods for evaluating the spending activities in the target budgeting methodologyMaslák, Stanislav January 2011 (has links)
The topic of these Thesis is the use of the multi-criteria methods at budgeting the expenditure side of the state budget. The first chapter of the thesis describes in detail the ex ante analysis as a support tool for decisions on public expenditure and also the economy, efficiency and effectiveness as the criteria for the ex ante and ex post analysis of the public expenditure of the state budget. Furthermore, I describe here analysis of decision making, specifically the individual elements and the structure of decision-making process.The second chapter focuses on various methods of quantification of the weight of the criteria and the methods of multi-criterial decision. In the third, final chapter, I apply the methods described in second chapter to a specific example.
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Náklady vlastního kapitálu ex ante přístupy / The cost of equity capital with focus on forward-looking approachesChroustovský, Jiří January 2013 (has links)
Submitted final thesis aims to map calculation methods for designation of cost of equity capital. It focuses on forward-looking approaches. Its practical part is dedicated to research of risk premium and implied cost of equity capital at the level of PX-TR index representing the Czech capital market
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Detecting Disruption: : an Ex-ante Study in the Automotive IndustryKarlsson, Niclas, Karlsson, Zandra January 2016 (has links)
In history there are numerous examples of strong market-leaders who have lost everything through the emergence of a new breakthrough technology which has replaced the existing one. That could be the reason why Christensen received such high attention when he presented his famous work about disruptive technologies in 1997. In his work, and in many following studies, several aspects of this phenomenon have been investigated. However, the key point for the market leaders, the ability of identifying a market disruption before it happens, ex ante, is still a field that has not reached a definedstate of the art. In this work one of Christensen's original ideas of disruption, driven by changes incustomer demand, is highlighted as a possible improvement for the ex ante methodology. In this thesis a selected existing holistic prediction model is extended explicitly with this aspect of need change. The purpose of this work is thus to evaluate if including the property of shifting customer needs in an existing holistic model would improve the ex ante prediction of disruption and lead to a simple, practical but yet rich model. With a literature review of the existing types of ex ante methods a fitting base model for the holistic approach to disruptive prediction is found. A second literature review is performed with the focus on disruption and its link to changes in need, as expressed by customer demand. This serves as a starting point for the extension of the base ex ante model into a methodology that look also upon the aspect of shifting customer demand. To validate and use the proposed extended ex ante model a qualitative approach is selected. It consists of two studies within the automotive industry. One is a history analysis of a known disruptive case to validate the extension, the entry of Japanese car manufacturers into the US market. One is a case-study of a present potentially disruptive case to apply the extended method as a genuine ex ante method for final evaluation at a post-disruption stage. It investigates the effects of electric vehicles on the Chinese automotive market. Through the analysis of the two studies the conclusion is reached that a qualitative improvement of the prediction has been obtained. Additionally it is shown that the analysis of customer need change can provide an increased understanding of the underlying drivers of the disruption.
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Ex-post and ex-ante estimation of market risk premiumSibhatu, Temesgen, Mahmod, Dalia January 2006 (has links)
In the financial world, stocks should provide a greater return than safe investments such as Treasury bonds. This is due to a higher risk involved when obtaining stocks in comparison to treasury bonds. Thus, the higher risk involved, the higher return is expected by the investors. The return expected over the risk-free rate is a compensation for the risk. This compensation is referred to as the market risk premium (MRP). According to financial researchers, it is not only the magnitude of the MRP discussed controversially among economists, but also the appropriate methodology to calculate meaning-ful estimates. The various estimation methods can be generalized as the historical approach (ex post) and the forward-looking approach (ex ante). The purpose of this thesis is to investigate the application of the estimation methods for-practical investment decitions and to observe which estimate (ex-post or/and ex-ante) the financial actors find to be optimal as an input for decision making. Data will be gathered from a small group of respondents in order to receive an in-depth comprehension of the subject matter. Hence, the nature of the data in this research dictates the application of qualitative methods. It can be concluded that both the ex-ante method and the ex-post method are used by the three financial actors when forecasting the MRP. Furthermore, it could be concluded that investors can apply different values of MRP as an input for models and investment deci-sions due to the fact that the choice of the fair MRP involves some subjective judgments from the individual analyst or investor.
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Ex-ante Control Mechanisms against Opportunistic Behavior regarding Knowledge Sensitivity of Product (Comparative Case Study)Grabowska, Kamila, Tabe Mohammadi, Shideh January 2013 (has links)
There is an increasing interest for business organizations to engage into the global inter-firm alliance nowadays. The companies are striving for accessing the opportunities created by emerging markets, diversification of the products’ offer or the access to lower cost inputs (Barnes, et al., 2010). However, along with the benefits, there are also risks that the inter-firm alliances are challenged with. Those risks are represented by various forms of opportunistic behavior, which might be further caused by business partners (Williamson, 1975). The companies that decide to engage into inter-firm alliance need to invest in the implementation of control mechanisms that will protect them against opportunistic behavior. The preventing exante mechanisms can be implemented prior to the official start of cooperation while the cause ex-post mechanisms are applied during further stage of the collaboration. However, due to the cost of these implementations, companies cannot afford employing every available control mechanism. They need to select only the ones that their benefits exceed their costs. One of the main factors that influence the selection process of control mechanisms is the level of knowledge sensitivity of a product. The main objective of this master thesis is to determine how the level of knowledge sensitivity of a product influences the selection of ex-ante control mechanisms.
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Ex-post and ex-ante estimation of market risk premiumSibhatu, Temesgen, Mahmod, Dalia January 2006 (has links)
<p>In the financial world, stocks should provide a greater return than safe investments such as Treasury bonds. This is due to a higher risk involved when obtaining stocks in comparison to treasury bonds. Thus, the higher risk involved, the higher return is expected by the investors. The return expected over the risk-free rate is a compensation for the risk. This compensation is referred to as the market risk premium (MRP).</p><p>According to financial researchers, it is not only the magnitude of the MRP discussed controversially among economists, but also the appropriate methodology to calculate meaning-ful estimates. The various estimation methods can be generalized as the historical approach (ex post) and the forward-looking approach (ex ante).</p><p>The purpose of this thesis is to investigate the application of the estimation methods for-practical investment decitions and to observe which estimate (ex-post or/and ex-ante) the financial actors find to be optimal as an input for decision making.</p><p>Data will be gathered from a small group of respondents in order to receive an in-depth comprehension of the subject matter. Hence, the nature of the data in this research dictates the application of qualitative methods.</p><p>It can be concluded that both the ex-ante method and the ex-post method are used by the three financial actors when forecasting the MRP. Furthermore, it could be concluded that investors can apply different values of MRP as an input for models and investment deci-sions due to the fact that the choice of the fair MRP involves some subjective judgments from the individual analyst or investor.</p>
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Underpricing of US FinTech IPOskobeisy, islam January 2018 (has links)
This master thesis examines the effect of ex-ante uncertainty about the intrinsic value of US FinTech IPOs stock on the underpricing level. Baron (1982) Asymmetric information model and Beaty and Ritter (1986) the ex-ante uncertainty model were tested using regression analysis by selecting different proxies of ex-ante uncertainty (Firm Age and Market capitalization, IPO proceed and Number of uses of proceed, Venture backing and Underwriter reputation). The Data set consists of 62 US FinTech IPOs during the period from January, 2005 to July, 2017. The underpricing level of US FinTech IPOs was 20.46%. The market capitalization, venture backing and the number of uses of proceed were found to be significant in determining the level of underpricing. The thesis also concludes that Baron (1982) and Beaty and Ritter (1986) models don’t hold for the FinTech IPOs during the period from January, 2005 to July, 2017.
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Den ekonomiska aspekten av ett "mega-event" : En nytto-kostnadsanalys av världsmästerskapet i fotboll i Tyskland 2006Jonasson, Oskar January 2024 (has links)
Att få anordna ett världsmästerskap i fotboll ses som en stor ära, då det bygger upp förväntningar en nation, eller flera, kan bygga en gemenskap omkring. I juli år 2000 valdes Tyskland som arrangör till mästerskapet i fotboll år 2006 och således började förberedelser ta fart. Syftet med denna uppsats är studera huruvida fotbolls-VM i Tyskland (2006) var ett samhällsekonomiskt lönsamt projekt eller inte. Tidigare studier i området pekar på att det finns en överskattning i de nettofördelar som landet visar sig få. I studien kommer en nytto-kostnadsanalys (CBA) att utföras där relevanta nyttor och kostnader lyfts fram och ställs mot varandra. Kostnadssidan är mer tillförlitlig då de största utgifterna är officiella, medan nyttosidan inte är lika tillförlitlig på grund av att många siffror är estimerade. Dessutom finns det nyttor som inte kan räknas i monetära-termer (n.m) vilket också försvårar analysen. Slutligen pekar resultatet på att det inte var samhällsekonomiskt lönsamt för Tyskland att arrangera mästerskapet då kostnaderna övervägde nyttorna. För enskilt året 2006, kan det dock ses som samhällsekonomisklönsamt på grund av kostnadsfördelningen på fem år på de stora kostnadsposterna. / Organising a World Cup is seen as a great honour, as it builds up expectations and is something that one or more nations can build a community around. In July 2000, Germany was chosen to host the championship and so preparations began to take off. The purpose of this paper is to study whether the World Cup was socio-economically profitable or not in Germany (2006). Previous studies in this area indicate that there is an overestimation of the net benefits that the country will receive. In this study, a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) will be carried out where relevant benefits and costs are highlighted and compared. The cost side is more reliable as the largest expenditures are official, while the benefit side is less reliable as many figures are estimated. In addition, some benefits cannot be calculated in monetary terms, which also complicates the analysis. Finally, the result indicates that it was not a socio- economic benefit for Germany to organise the FIFA World Cup as the costs outweighed the benefits. However, only looking on the year of 2006, it can be seen as socio-economically profitable due to the five-year cost distribution of the main cost items.
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