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1	Konsten att förutspå valresultat : Prognostisera resultatet av det svenska riksdagsvalet 2018 baserat på vallokalsundersökningsdata Sjövill, Rasmus January 2019 (has links) Exit polls have had a hard time predicting election results in Sweden over the last decade. The introduction of the Sweden Democrats in the political scene has generally caused problems for polling organizations. Opinion polls have a big influence on the economic market and therefore any wrongdoing might cause a big disturbance in the economy. This paper develops a model based on systematic sampling differences and sociodemographic background variables in order to predict the results of the Swedish general election 2018. The study uses data from SVT´s exit poll and SCB´s voter turnout survey. The results of the study show that the model in general predicts the 2018 Swedish general election better than the prognosis of SVT. Exit poll Raking VALU Riksdagsvalet 2018 Valdata Politisk prediktion Vallokalsundersökning Probability Theory and Statistics Sannolikhetsteori och statistik
2	A Logistic Regression Analysis of Utah Colleges Exit Poll Response Rates Using SAS Software Stevenson, Clint W. 27 October 2006 (has links) (PDF) In this study I examine voter response at an interview level using a dataset of 7562 voter contacts (including responses and nonresponses) in the 2004 Utah Colleges Exit Poll. In 2004, 4908 of the 7562 voters approached responded to the exit poll for an overall response rate of 65 percent. Logistic regression is used to estimate factors that contribute to a success or failure of each interview attempt. This logistic regression model uses interviewer characteristics, voter characteristics (both respondents and nonrespondents), and exogenous factors as independent variables. Voter characteristics such as race, gender, and age are strongly associated with response. An interviewer's prior retail sales experience is associated with whether a voter will decide to respond to a questionnaire or not. The only exogenous factor that is associated with voter response is whether the interview occurred in the morning or afternoon. Exit Poll sampling weighting questionnaires interviewers voters polling places precincts backward selection SAS proc logistic surveylogistic model selection Utah Colleges Exit Poll UCEP SUDAAN SQL data management weight adjustments predicted probabilities logistic regression holdout research validation sample design data architecture adjustment exogenous statistics political science voters nonresponse response rate retail sales age race gender time of day Statistics and Probability

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Konsten att förutspå valresultat : Prognostisera resultatet av det svenska riksdagsvalet 2018 baserat på vallokalsundersökningsdata

A Logistic Regression Analysis of Utah Colleges Exit Poll Response Rates Using SAS Software