This thesis creates an epidemiological foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) spread model for Ontario. Disease simulations are constructed to reflect three levels of the cattle identification and movement recording system. The outputs generated by the epidemiological model are used to calculate the direct disease control costs a FMD outbreak. In addition, welfare effects caused by a FMD outbreak are also calculated for each level of cattle traceability using an equilibrium displacement model. Parameter sensitivity was tested for both the epidemiological and economic model results. It is found that the benefits to the beef cattle industry of increasing the ability to trace direct animal contacts during a FMD disease outbreak in Ontario are less than the lowest annual cost estimate of a cattle traceability system as estimated by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

This thesis creates an epidemiological foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) spread model for Ontario. Disease simulations are constructed to reflect three levels of the cattle identification and movement recording system. The outputs generated by the epidemiological model are used to calculate the direct disease control costs a FMD outbreak. In addition, welfare effects caused by a FMD outbreak are also calculated for each level of cattle traceability using an equilibrium displacement model. Parameter sensitivity was tested for both the epidemiological and economic model results. It is found that the benefits to the beef cattle industry of increasing the ability to trace direct animal contacts during a FMD disease outbreak in Ontario are less than the lowest annual cost estimate of a cattle traceability system as estimated by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral infection that affects all Artiodactyls (cloven-hoofed) species. The United States has been free of FMD since 1929, and the entire population of cloven-hoofed species is therefore susceptible to FMD virus infection. In the face of an outbreak, it is crucial that appropriate control measures be applied rapidly to control the disease. However, in most cases decisions on mitigation strategies must be made with little current or empirical data and in the context of political, economic and social pressures. Disease spread models can be used to evaluate the design of optimal control strategies, for policy formulation, for gap analysis and to develop and refine research agendas when disease is not present. This research project is designed to investigate the potential role of wildlife (deer) in the transmission and spread of FMD in an extensive livestock management system in southern Texas. The spread of FMD was simulated in white tailed deer populations using a Geographic Automata model. Past research has focused primarily on modeling the spread of FMD in livestock populations. There has been limited research into the potential role of wildlife in the spread and maintenance of FMD, specifically in the United States and using a spatial modeling approach. The study area is a nine-county area located in southern Texas, bordering Mexico. It is a region of concern for the introduction of foreign animal diseases, particularly through the movement of wild and feral animal species. It is both a strategic location and is generally representative of the many similar eco-climatic regions throughout the world. It is an ideal model landscape to simulate FMD incursions. In this research project, the potential spread of FMD is simulated based on various spatial estimates of white tailed deer distribution, various estimates of critical model parameters (such as the latent and infectious periods), seasonal population variability and in the face of potential pre-emptive mitigation strategies. Significant differences in the predicted spread were found for each group of simulations. The decision-support system developed in the studies described in this dissertation provide decision-makers and those designing and implementing disease response and control policy with information on the potential spread of a foreign animal disease incursion with a likely wildlife reservoir. Use of such a decision-support system would enhance the disease incursion preparedness and response capacity of the United States.

Master of Science / Department of Diagnostic Medicine/Pathobiology / Gary A. Anderson / Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly infectious viral disease of cattle, pigs, sheep, goats, buffalo, and artiodactyl wildlife species. Foot-and-mouth disease virus is endemic and periodic devastating epidemics have occurred and caused heavy economic losses in Iraq for a long time. The first official cases of FMD were recorded in 1937, while the first record of a specific FMD serotype in Iraq was serotype A in 1952. Other serotypes have been reported since then; serotypes O, SAT-1 and Asia1 were recorded in 1957, 1962, and 1975, respectively. Veterinary Services in Iraq has been severely weakened over the past two decades, and its infrastructure has been devastated as a consequence of previous political conflicts, wars and international sanctions. The breakdown of Veterinary Services led to the disruption of disease control strategies, collapse of disease surveillance and monitoring, and weakening of response systems. The destruction of the Al-Dora FMD laboratories for diagnosis and vaccine production by the United Nation in 1996, and the restrictions placed on the importation of vaccines have strongly affected the FMD control program. A severe epidemic of FMD occurred in Iraq in 1998, affecting 2.5 million ruminants and causing heavy losses in newly born animals. It is estimated to have killed about 550,000 animals. The outbreak was due to the serotype O1 Middle East strain which has affected large and small ruminants. In 2009, Iraq was severely affected by new serotype A (subtype A Iran 05). The major efforts of Veterinary Services in Iraq have been directed towards control of FMD by vaccination strategies. Two types of vaccine have been used, trivalent vaccine (O, A 22, and Asia 1) for cattle and buffalo and monovalent vaccine (O Manisa) for sheep and goats. Vaccination has been implemented once yearly on a voluntary basis. Sometimes other limited control measures have accompanied vaccination, which include quarantine, movement control, focused vaccination, disinfection, and public awareness programs. The FMD control program in Iraq has been confronted by many challenges: deficits in FMD surveillance and emergency preparedness, limited diagnostic capabilities, difficulties in restricting animal movement, and lack and irregular supply of appropriate vaccines.

Global beef markets are highly influenced by sanitary issues, mainly related to animal health and food safety, which have been determining levels and trends in global beef trade. Food safety issues affecting human health such as bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) associated with Creutzfeldt-Jacob Disease (vCJD) in humans, and other diseases affecting production such as foot and mouth disease (FMD) has encouraged putting these issues to beef trade attention. A way to address these concerns and comply with international standards is the use of traceability systems in order to quickly identify hazard sources and assure beef quality and safety. The goal of this research was to assess the effect of exporting countries sanitary status of BSE and FMD, and traceability systems in beef export prices and to examine Paraguayan beef exports relative to other exporting countries. Data of the top beef exporters was collected from the United Nations Commodity Trade Database (UN Comtrade), including export operations volume and receipt with each of their trading partners, from 2000 to 2012. Four commodities were studied: Frozen and Fresh/Chilled bone-in and boneless beef cuts. The data was analyzed using ordinary least squares regression methods (a hedonic price equation). Five models were run, one for each commodity and lastly one with all four together. Results revealed that both FMD and BSE affect negatively to beef exports prices, as well as shipments from India, that has no official FMD status and any traceability system in place. Apart from sanitary status, epidemiological events also have a negative impact on beef prices. On the other hand, the implementation of traceability systems improves prices. In this scenario, Paraguay lags behind in the adoption of emerging markets standards for traceability systems, therefore does not access most competitive markets, which pay higher prices. As such, Paraguay faces challenges to maintain and expand beef exports, especially in regards to keeping the country’s FMD free status.

Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) could have a significant impact on the U.S. agriculture industry and the welfare of U.S. producers and U.S. consumers. In order to address the potential impact from animal disease outbreaks, this project is designed to utilize a combined epidemic and economic modeling framework to evaluate animal disease management strategies which can be used to reduce the potential losses in an unusual event such as FMD outbreaks. In this study, we compare the welfare changes among three different parties with different strategies using, 1) ANOVA analysis; 2) cost benefit analysis; and 3) Risk Aversion Coefficient (RAC) analysis. Four types of index feedlots are selected in the study including, Feedlot Type 1 (> 50,000 heads of animals), Feedlot Type 4 (backgrounder feedlot), Large Beef Grazing (>100 heads of animals), and Backyard (<10 heads of animals). Results suggest that early detection of FMD events has the advantage in reducing risk as shown in the epidemiological impacts. Enhanced surveillance is found to be a preferred mitigation strategy for U.S. consumers in the scenario of smaller feedlot disease introductions (e.g. Large Beef Grazing and Backyard) and for U.S. producers in the larger feedlot disease introduction scenarios (e.g. Feedlot Type 1 and Feedlot Type 4). Adequate vaccination is not cost effective when seeking to minimize average loss but becomes a preferred strategy when the risk aversion rises. Risk modeling with stochastic programming adopted in this study also confirms the importance of incorporating risk evaluation into decision making process. It offers another option for us to evaluate the mitigation strategies. Two portfolio models are adopted in this study including, E-V model (mean variance portfolio choice model) and Unified model. The results show that the preference for control strategies depends on risk attitude. Early detection proves to be preferable for U.S. consumers and is also preferred by U.S. processors and producers as Risk Aversion Parameters (RAP) rises. Adequate vaccination strategy can benefit U.S. consumers but does not give U.S. processors a better outcome. Adequate vaccination provides a better choice for U.S. producers when the RAP rises. Enhanced surveillance is preferred for U.S. consumers. For U.S. processors, enhanced surveillance does not give a better risk/return outcome. U.S. producers are likely to switch their preferences from regular surveillance to enhanced surveillance as their RAP rises.

Few studies have compared cortisol responses to psychological and physical stress tasks with or without social evaluation. Flow-mediated dilation (FMD) with reactive hyperemia is impaired following acute stress though less is known regarding the impact of stress and cortisol on FMD with exercise induced increases in shear stress (EX-FMD). The purpose of this study was 1) to compare cortisol responses between the Trier Social Stress Test (TSST) and 5min cold pressor test with and without social evaluation (CPT, CPT+SE) and 2) to examine the impact of these stressors and cortisol elevation on EX-FMD. 59 healthy male subjects were randomly assigned to one of three conditions: TSST, CPT, or CPT+SE. Brachial artery EX-FMD was assessed before, 15 and 35min post-stress with Echo and Doppler ultrasound. Results are mean ± SD. Baseline parameters did not differ between conditions (p>.05) and stress responses were similar between the three conditions for peak cortisol: TSST 11.34±5.53nmol/L; CPT 10.08±4.48nmol/L; CPT+SE 8.51±3.60nmol/L; condition effect p=.292; cortisol responders only (increase >2nmol/L) TSST 12.48±5.24nmol/L; CPT 12.13±5.31nmol/L; CPT+SE 10.70±2.86nmol/L; condition effect p=.560; peak MAP: 131.99 ±18.56mmHg, condition effect p=.664; peak TPR: 25.84 ± 9.78mmHg/L/min, condition effect p=0.841; peak stress rating out of 10: 5.11 ± 2.12, condition effect p= 0.292; with the exception of HR (TSST: 95.06 ± 15.29bpm; CPT: 79.00 ± 11.85bpm; CPT+SE: 77.98 ± 7.66bpm; condition effect p= 0.003) and pain ratings out of 10 (TSST: 1.21 ± 1.72; CPT: 6.66 ± 1.42; CPT+SE: 6.38 ± 1.73; condition effect p<.001). Shear stress was lower in the 15min post-stress vs. pre stress and 35min post-stress trials (72.34 ± 4.46; 15min post-stress: 70.79 ± 5.39; 35min post-stress: 70.60 ± 6.10; condition effect p= 0.592; trial effect: p= 0.018). EX-FMD increased from pre- stress to 15min post-stress in all conditions (pre-stress 6.22 ± 2.75%; 15min-post stress: 7.91 ± 3.24%; 35min post-stress: 6.60 ± 2.93%; trial effect p<.001). No correlation between change in EX-FMD and change in cortisol was detected (r2= 0.0125; p=.404). In conclusion, the TSST, CPT and CPT+SE elicited similar stress responses and stress transiently enhanced EX-FMD. Cortisol responses did not explain the enhanced EX-FMD post stress. / Thesis (Master, Kinesiology & Health Studies) -- Queen's University, 2012-09-14 15:41:33.325

No description available.

Merino sheep are the most numerous domestic livestock in Australia and feral goats are wide-spread and locally abundant in many of the regions where sheep are grazed. Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a disease of ungulates that causes severe economic hardship to countries where outbreaks occur or where it has become endemic. In India, Africa, Greece and recently the United Kingdom and Eire, sheep and goats have been implicated in the spread and maintenance of FMD. In Australia, there are contingency plans (AUSVETPLANS) for dealing with an outbreak of FMD. Included in those plans are strategies for control of the disease in feral ungulates including feral pigs and feral goats. Modelling has provided assistance in developing strategies to combat outbreaks in feral pigs and for controlling outbreaks in domestic livestock. No models have been constructed to aid decisions about controlling FMD in feral goats where they co-occur with merino sheep. In Australia, the greatest densities of free-ranging feral goats and domestic livestock occur in the high rainfall zone (> 500 mm mean annual rainfall) along the eastern tablelands and adjacent slopes of the Great Dividing Range. Previous studies of feral goat biology, population dynamics and behaviour in Australia have concentrated on arid and semi-arid zones or on islands. Interactions between free ranging feral goats and merino sheep have not previously been studied in the high rainfall zone. My study investigated the ecological and behavioural characteristics of feral goats and their interactions with sympatric merino sheep at a high rainfall site in central eastern New South Wales. The population dynamics, biological and behavioural parameters of feral goats and sheep were then used to model FMD in such an environment. Deterministic temporal models and a new spatial stochastic model were used. Of particular interest were the rates of contact within and between subgroups of feral goats (termed herds and mobs), within and between subgroups of merino sheep (termed flocks and mobs), and between subgroups of the two species. Feral goats at the study site were found to be numerous (mean density = 34.94 goats km-2, from aerial surveys), in good condition, fecund and had high adult survival and low annual adult mortality (survival= 0.81�1.00) in the absence of harvesting and hunting. They had an observed instantaneous rate of increase of 0.112 per year. Annual rate of increase was similar to other sites in Australia without sustained harvesting pressure. Home ranges were small for both males (3.754 km², s.e. = 0.232, n = 116 goats) and females (2.369 km², s.e. = 0.088, n = 241 goats). From this and other Australasian studies, an inverse power function was found to be an excellent descriptor of the relationship between mean annual rainfall and female home range size. A resource selection function was fitted in a geographic information system to observational data of feral goats. The habitat selection of feral goats included a preference for wooded vegetation on eastern and north eastern aspects at higher elevations. The resource selection function was also used to set the probabilities of occurrence of feral goats in 1 ha areas of the landscape and these probabilities were used to generate heterogeneity in a spatial model of foot and mouth disease virus (FMDV) transmission. Daily per capita contact rates were estimated from observed contacts in the field where a contact between individuals was recognised when one approached within 1 body length ([approx] 1m) of another. The contacts between feral goats within herds were frequent and occurred at a rate of 6.96 (s.e. = 1.27) goat�goat contacts day-1. Sheep to sheep contacts were slightly less frequent (4.22 sheep�sheep contacts day-1, s.e. = 0.65) but both estimates were most likely negatively biased because of observer errors in estimating the number of individual animals coming in contact with observation subject (focal) animals. Contacts between herds of feral goats were not common and those between adjacent populations were fewer than 1 per year. In sheep, flock to flock contact was largely governed by husbandry practices and occurred at a mean daily rate of 0.0014 flock�flock contacts. Contacts between sheep and feral goats were less frequent but nonetheless common (2.82 goat�sheep contacts day-1, s.e. = 0.40). In feral goats the size of the mob in which focal goats were observed was found to be the most important factor in determining contact rates between individuals and a counter-intuitive inverse relationship was identified. Contacts were heterogeneous and density was not an important determinant of contact rates implying that, because of the uniformly high densities at the site, saturation had occurred. The temporal models of FMDV transmission showed that the rate of contact within and between species was such that FMD was predicted to spread rapidly throughout an infected herd or flock. Control strategies of intense culling of feral goats at the population level were predicted to allow the disease to persist at low prevalence, with a small peak corresponding to the annual lambing pulse in sheep. However, the same level of control (>90% reduction) at the herd level was predicted to eliminate FMD and allow the safe reintroduction of sheep. Extreme control that left very small groups (<3 individuals) may be counter productive because such small groups are likely to join the reintroduced sheep in an effort by the goats to meet gregarious urges. The spatial model was more reassuring. It predicted that FMD would die out in a mixed sheep and feral goat population in less than 90 days because of the low rate of herd to herd contact and herd to flock contact. For similar environments, the contingency planning consequences are that an outbreak of FMD introduced into feral goats from sympatric sheep is likely to be containable by removing all the sheep, determining the extent and likely range of the feral goats, then removing a substantial proportion of or eradicating each herd. Feral goats, being relatively sedentary, are unlikely to spread to adjacent populations and the disease will die out through lack of contact between herds and populations. Because feral goat home ranges overlap and are centred on one or two small catchments, a containment ring of feral goat control, set to encompass the home range of a target herd and that of adjacent herds, should be adequate to limit spread of FMD.

It is very important to study the mental health impact of disasters to provide adequate mental health services when there is an increased demand of mental health services and a concurrent deterioration of mental healthcare capacity after disasters. This study examined the mental health impact of 9/11 attacks among the individuals living close to the disaster area and compared them to the individuals living farther from the disaster area. New York (NY) state and Washington DC were selected as the disaster areas and Illinois (IL) was selected to study individuals living farther from the disaster area. The study also assessed the effects of mental health on risky behaviors such as cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption and how they vary based on age, gender and proximity to the disaster. Ten year Behavior Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) data from 1996-2005 was obtained for NY, DC and IL. Significant increase in mental distress was observed in NY and DC but not in IL. Increased use of alcohol was found among DC and NY residents but the increase in IL was not significant. Logistic regression showed that increase in alcohol consumption was not associated with mental health. An overall decrease in cigarette smoking was observed and there was no impact of disaster on smoking rates. Mental distress was much higher among the female respondents as compared to the male respondents. Mental distress was highest among 35- 49 year old respondents as compared to other age groups. In future longitudinal studies should be conducted in order to establish the causal relationship of mental health and risk behaviors such as smoking and alcohol consumption after disasters. Most of the interventions regarding post-disaster mental health focus on PTSD but other mental disorders should also be addressed.