<p> </p><p>Gas turbine discs are heavily loaded due to centrifugal and thermal loads and are therefore designed for a service lifetime specified in hours and cycles. New probabilistic design criteria have been worked out at Siemens Industrial Turbomachinery AB and this report is intended to evaluate if existing turbine discs meet the new design criteria. The evaluation is composed of two tasks, estimation of failure risk and investigation of which parameters that have large effect on the results.</p><p> </p><p>The outcome from the evaluations show that the failure risks are smaller than the maximum failure risks allowed in the design criteria. Further, creep strain rate, temperature and creep rupture strain are identified to have large effect on the results in the first case. In the second case blade load and other mechanical loads as well as yield stress show large effect on the results.</p><p> </p>

Gas turbine discs are heavily loaded due to centrifugal and thermal loads and are therefore designed for a service lifetime specified in hours and cycles. New probabilistic design criteria have been worked out at Siemens Industrial Turbomachinery AB and this report is intended to evaluate if existing turbine discs meet the new design criteria. The evaluation is composed of two tasks, estimation of failure risk and investigation of which parameters that have large effect on the results. The outcome from the evaluations show that the failure risks are smaller than the maximum failure risks allowed in the design criteria. Further, creep strain rate, temperature and creep rupture strain are identified to have large effect on the results in the first case. In the second case blade load and other mechanical loads as well as yield stress show large effect on the results.