p.p1 {margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px 'Times New Roman'} A methodology is presented for evaluating the potential surface fault displacement on reverse faults in a probabilistic manner. This methodology follows the procedures put forth for Probabilistic Fault Displacement Hazard Analysis (PFDHA). Empirical probability distributions that are central to performing a PFDHA are derived from field investigations of reverse faulting events. Statistical analyses are used to test previously assumed properties of scale invariance with respect to magnitude for normalized displacement. It is found that normalized displacement is statistically invariant with respect to magnitude and focal mechanism, allowing for the combination of a large number of events into a single dataset for regression purposes. An empirical relationship is developed using this single dataset to be used as a fault displacement prediction equation. A PFDHA is conducted on the Los Osos fault zone in central California and a hazard curve for fault displacement is produced. A full sensitivity analysis is done using this fault as a reference, to test for the sources of variability in the PFDHA methodology. The influence of the major primary variables is quantified to provide a future direction for PFDHA.

No description available.

A Finite Element Analysis (FEA) investigation of concrete tunnel systems traversing seismic faults is carried out to determine how to effectively mitigate the stresses induced in the liner when subject to fault displacement. A parametric study of various fault parameters, both in the damage zone and competent rock, is carried out to determine the site conditions which induce the most stress on the tunnel liner system. Results indicate that friction angle, cohesion, and elastic modulus of fault zones have varying effects on the stresses induced on the liner. The width of damage zone and expected displacements are also investigated and it has been shown that even small displacements over narrow damage zones, around 10 m, can still result in significant damage to the concrete liner whereas in wider damage zones the effects of the displacement are more evident. The use of flexible joints in what is known as the articulated design method is investigated to mitigate the stresses induced by fault displacement and discussed. Several orientations, lengths and variations in relative stiffness of these flexible joints are investigated to determine their optimal effectiveness. Results show that this is an effective solution which can be used in design and repair of tunnels to mitigate the stresses and resulting damages to concrete tunnel liners subject to fault displacement.