Inadequate demographic data in Lesotho inhibits demographic research. Nonetheless, indirect demographic techniques have proven to be useful tools in the developing world, as their application to census and survey data has greatly expanded knowledge of the demographic situation in data deficient countries (Brass, 1996). The different techniques are based on specific assumptions and robustness of available data, thus deserves caution in application. Failure to adhere to these methodological specifications results in generation of more errors (Feeney, 1996). The impetus of this research was to assess the applicability of the P/F ratio method in estimating recent fertility levels in Lesotho. In particular, the data was evaluated to verify the following P/F ratio assumptions; (1) constant fertility; (2) accurate reporting of fertility by younger women; and (3) correct age pattern of fertility. In order to obtain optimal fertility estimates, the research undertook extensive data assessment, and corrections where possible, of individual variables employed in the P/F ratio method. In line with previous studies, the magnitude and pattern of the P/F ratios represented strong evidence of fertility decline in Lesotho. This evidence rendered the Brass P/F ratio method inappropriate for estimation of recent fertility levels in the country. Therefore, this research presents the Relational Gompertz model faring better in indirectly estimating fertility levels in Lesotho. Not undermining the Bureau of Statistics, the current study challenges the Bureau's estimates, and declares own estimates as more likely precise estimates of recent fertility levels in Lesotho when using the P/F ratio method. This assertion is grounded on the basis that compared to the Bureau, the study undertook and presented detailed data evaluation and adjustments, as well as adhering to the P/F ratio methodological assumptions. Nonetheless, the research also concludes that indirect techniques do not necessarily provide an utopia to demographic estimation in poor data countries. Even when the robust measures were employed, the quality of the 1996 data yielded implausible estimates as the method could not account for the degree of unreported births. This calls for caution during data collection and processing in order to minimise the reporting errors. / Thesis (M.Dev.Studies)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, 2006.

There is a general perception that fertility has been declining over a decade in Lesotho, and this has sparked the debate that fertility transition is drawing closer in Lesotho. The growing concern was stimulated by limited studies showing the effect of socio-economic factors on fertility in Lesotho and variations in proximate determinants. The paper examines recent fertility trends in Lesotho using various demographic techniques of fertility estimation and determines whether the onset of fertility transition has begun in Lesotho. The secondary aim is to assess and control errors in the Lesotho Demographic and Health Survey of 2004, thus providing robust and reliable estimates. The analysis utilizes the secondary data from 2004 Lesotho Demographic and Health Survey (LDHS). The data set comprised of a sample of 7095 women who participated in the survey. The use of 1996 Lesotho Population Census and 2002 Lesotho Reproductive and Health Survey were made to facilitate comparison with 2004 LDHS, and to provide differentials and measure changes over time in fertility. The P/F ratio method developed by Brass and the modified version, Relational Gompertz Model are employed and used to assess the quality of data as well as determining fertility levels and trends. The findings reveal that the overall fertility among women in Lesotho during 2004 LDHS is 4.02. Application of different methods depicts that fertility remains high in Lesotho, although considered moderate according to sub-Saharan standards. Despite the fact that TFR is high, overall fertility decline is evident. The estimates of fertility range between 3.5 and 5.6 depending on the technique in use. The reason for the high observed fertility is that women in the rural areas still cherish quite a substantial family size. Nevertheless, changing acceptance and perception of using contraception, delayed marriage, high levels of education and economic development among women in Lesotho contributes considerably to fertility declines in Lesotho. As a result, disparities that continue to propel fertility levels within population groups incite reassessment of existing research and policy so as to enhance development strategies as well as action programmes. / Thesis (M.A.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Howard College, 2011.