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The performance of value versus growth stocks on the JSE during and post the financial crisisMukandi, Joyce 22 February 2019 (has links)
The value-growth investment style is a popular strategy for obtaining abnormal returns. However, limited research has been done on how value and growth stocks perform during periods of economic downturn, particularly in emerging economies. The 2008 financial crisis has been named one of the worst recessions. By the end of February 2009, it accounted for a destruction of equity worth $29 trillion worldwide. This study focused on the performance of value versus growth stocks on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE), during and post the financial crisis period. This was done by evaluating the general performance of value versus growth stocks and the performance of these stocks based on market size. Value stocks were defined as those constituting the lowest 30% Price to Book ratios on the JSE All Shares Index (ALSI). On the other hand, growth stocks comprised of shares with the highest 30% Price to Book ratios. The stocks were further divided by market capitalisation (cap) using the ALSI Top 40 (Large cap), Medium cap and Small cap indices. A one year holding period was used such that portfolios were reconstructed annually using the relevant ALSI constituents. Total Returns were used in the analysis in order to capture the contribution of both capital gains and dividend income. The results from Student’s t-test and the Mann-Whitney U test showed that there were no statistical significant differences between value and growth stocks returns on the JSE during the financial crisis period. Despite this, the trend implied that value stocks outperform growth stocks, but investing in the JSE ALSI produces relatively higher returns than value and growth stocks during crisis periods. This is useful to investors since small percentage differences may amount to significant monetary values. On the other hand, post the financial crisis period, overall return differences showed that growth stocks performed better than value stocks and the market. However, the results were statistically significant in only one of the three years. The study also found that the analysis of value versus growth stocks by size provides further explanations on their annual performance.
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The impact of macroeconomic variables on the performance of selected African stock marketsEpalanga, Amarildo 26 January 2022 (has links)
This dissertation investigates the impact of macroeconomic variables on the performance of African stock markets, focusing on Egypt, Mauritius, and South Africa during the period 2009– 2019. This dissertation employed the multiple linear regression model and the Granger causality test to ascertain the impact of these factors. For each country, the stock market index was used as a dependant variable while interest rates, inflation rate, money supply, exchange rate, gold price, and oil price were used as independent variables. The results from the country-specific models varied widely from country to country. The heterogeneity of the results may be explained by differences in economic fundamentals between the countries, for example, market depth, market size, and liquidity. The model showed that interest rate, which is inversely related to stock prices, isthe only significant variable in explaining stock prices in Egypt. In Mauritius, it wasfound that only three factors significantly affect stock prices, namely, exchange rate, gold price, and inflation. A depreciation of the Mauritius Rupee to the USD and an increase of the gold prices decrease stock prices in Mauritius, whilst the effect of inflation was found to be positive. In South Africa, results showed that inflation, money supply, and oil prices significantly affect stock prices in the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). However, unlike for Mauritius (where inflation has a positive impact), in South Africa, its effect is negative. By contrast, money supply and oil prices were found to impact the JSE stock prices positively. Against the backdrop of these findings, this dissertation encourages the governments and policy makers in emerging markets to consider stabilising the macroeconomy to create a conducive environment for stock market development. The Granger causality test reveals that stock prices can be used to predict oil prices in Egypt. In contrast, the South African data suggests no causal relationship between macroeconomic factors and stock prices. Finally, the same test in Mauritius shows that money supply can be used to predict stock prices, and stock prices can be used to forecast gold prices and exchange rates.
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