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Market risk management in Islamic finance : an economic analysis of the rationale, permissibility and usage of derivative hedging instrumentsAyoub, Sherif El-Sayed January 2013 (has links)
The examination of the topic of market risk management in Islamic finance is a complex endeavour. At a basic level, the subject matter, being multifarious in a manner that mixes religion and economics, requires the conjoining of religious faith with scientific objectivity in order to ascertain the truth contained in the scripture as it pertains to the Mua’amalat (dealings between individuals) matter of entering into financial contracts with others to manage market risk exposures. Moreover, the complexity is compounded due to the need to disentangle the ambiguity that has beset the discourse on the topic due to historically being mostly legal-centric with a focus on debating the contractual elements rather than attempting to comprehensively address the myriad issues that relate to market risk management in contemporary contexts. These issues, for the most part, revolve around the reliance on market risk transfer as a strategy and derivative contracts, with monetary underlying variables, as tools to implement that strategy. Thus, the journey of investigating the rationale, permissibility, and usage of derivative hedging instruments for market risk management in Islamic finance is, essentially, an undertaking that seeks to engage in a wide-ranging and multi-layered examination of the subject matter as well as the exploration of new areas of relative significance. This, in turn, and subsequent to the analysis of data generated from documentary sources and forty-one interviews which were collected from numerous sources within four locations, led to the elaboration of the contention that market risk management through derivative instruments for legitimate hedging purposes should not be prohibited in the Shari’a, albeit with certain conditions that limit unproductive behaviour. The basis for the aforementioned contention is built on the fact that market risk management has undergone a paradigm shift in how exposures are identified and measured as well as in the emergence of innovative tools which can result in a better ability to address the opportunities and challenges facing institutions that provide value to society (i.e., the real sector). Moreover, there is little substantive evidence that proves that the utilization of derivative instruments for hedging purposes leads its users to partaking in transactions that circumvent the prohibition of Riba (usury), Gharar (excessive uncertainty), and Maysir (gambling). In effect, the derivative instruments used for the management of market risks are not only disassociated from usurious debt transactions, they are also transacted in the financial markets in a manner that is transparent to all the parties involved. Along the same lines, the prohibition of Maysir, which is apparently an overarching concern, should be conceptualized with the focus on the proscription of the act of gambling, not necessarily the instruments (e.g., derivatives) and/or any particular framework (e.g., zero-sum arrangements). Ultimately, one should be cognizant of the fact that the true intentions of Islamic jurisprudence in Mua’amalat (as a manifestation of divine guidance) always centre on human well-being. Accordingly, the religious prohibitions are, in essence, within the realm of acts that adversely affect human well-being. This is a constant theme that is present throughout the thesis; and is one that exists at the heart of a wider aspiration of its adoption to a greater extent than is currently present in the Islamic finance discourse.
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The futility of stock-based compensation in light of imperfect market pricingCullen, James Peter January 2012 (has links)
This thesis addresses the mechanics of executive remuneration from an unorthodox perspective; the view presented through the lens of imperfect market pricing. Whilst many of the criticisms of existing compensation arrangements are merited, they ignore the integrity of a crucial aspect of the way remuneration awards are calculated; the market pricing mechanism. The original contribution of knowledge of this thesis is to explain how imperfect market pricing undermines the utility of stock-based compensation awards, especially in light of the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-11 (‘GFC’).The existing position with regard to Anglo-American corporate governance emphasises the role of the market in determining optimal governance solutions. However, the market cannot regulate all conflicts. For example, the separation of ownership and control in modern corporations creates an agency problem whereby managerial and shareholder interests may diverge. Public companies therefore use performance-related pay to align the interests of management with those of firm owners. This performance-related pay often includes an element with a specific link to the price of company stock. A by-product of these arrangements is that incentives are created for executives to inflate the value of their companies in order to benefit from short-run price appreciation. This reduces the utility of stock-based pay and encourages market short-termism. There is however, a further fundamental flaw in the use of stock-based pay; it places complete faith in modern finance theory; a theory which asserts that market pricing is flawless (the so-called Efficient Capital Markets Hypothesis). However, financial and asset markets are susceptible to forces which drive prices away from intrinsic value for protracted periods and contribute to serious price distortion. Behavioural finance explains how these distortions occur and provides a more appropriate paradigm for securities market operation. The Financial Instability Hypothesis (‘FIH’) also explains how endogenous instability, emanating from the banking sector, arises as an inevitable consequence of the functioning of the capitalist economy. It further demonstrates how markets may be driven away from fundamental value, how asset bubbles occur, and how the market pricing mechanism is seriously distorted. The most serious recent crisis, the GFC, exhibited the FIH taxonomy. It exposed serious flaws in modern finance theory and revealed the dangers of flawed incentive systems in generating asset bubbles. Executives at financial institutions stand accused of short-termism, over-leveraging and poor risk management. Monitoring of management was impossible to perform effectively due to various behavioural and structural obstacles arising from the size and complexity of the institutions concerned. Moreover, a system of perverse incentives led to the failure of effective regulation of executive compensation.Reform is therefore required. The thesis will conclude with a critical analysis of recent amendments to the regulation of compensation systems at financial institutions. Based on this examination, the thesis will make some proposals for future remuneration packages in the wider economy. These proposals are designed to reduce the potential for financial instability through removing incentives for firm executives to concentrate on short-term results, and emphasize the role of qualitative indices of performance.
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Analýza trhu spotřebitelských úvěrů se zaměřením na společnost CETELEM ČR, a.s. / Analysis of the consumer-finance market with focus on the company Cetelem ČR, a.s.Klestil, Karel January 2012 (has links)
Indebtedness of all subjects of the economy is recently a closely watched topic. The content of this work is the analysis of the consumer-finance market in the Czech Republic. This analysis is carried out in the period 2006 - 2010 and allows monitoring the consequences of the financial crisis. The second part is focused on product comparison between Cetelem ČR, a.s. and its competitors in the market. In conclusion there is the financial analysis of the company Cetelem using data from its annual reports.
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Análise da relação entre o retorno anormal e o volume anormal de negociações das ações que compõem o índice BOVESPA / Analysis of the relationship among the abnormal return and the abnormal volume of negotiations of the actions that it composes the BOVESPA IndexOliveira, Alexandre Silva de 30 October 2008 (has links)
The theme of research of the proposed dissertation is the analysis of the relationship among the abnormal return and the abnormal volume of negotiations of the actions that it composes the index Ibovespa. As subjects are investigated which the dynamic and contemporary relationship between the abnormal return and abnormal volume and enter the volatility of the abnormal return and the abnormal
volume, and which the dynamic and contemporary relationship between the return of the action and negotiated volume and enter the volatility of the return and the negotiated volume. As research method grew bibliographical researches and I study of the temporary series of the actions that composed the index Ibovespa on May 30, 2008, treated with the use of regressions multiple behind, with the model GJR-GARCH and with the analysis of causality of Granger. As results the work doesn't allow
conclusive statements with relationship the significância of the relationships sees that in some actions the relationship exists in a significant way and in other no, however it shows that the volume can be used as prognostic of the movement of the prices for some actions in matter in traders operations in the use of technical analysis. / O tema de pesquisa da dissertação proposta é a análise da relação entre o retorno anormal e o volume anormal de negociações das ações que compõe o índice Ibovespa. Como questões se investigam qual a relação dinâmica e
contemporânea entre o retorno anormal e volume anormal e entre a volatilidade do retorno anormal e o volume anormal, e qual a relação dinâmica e contemporânea entre o retorno da ação e volume negociado e entre a volatilidade do retorno e o
volume negociado. Como método de pesquisa desenvolveu-se pesquisas bibliográficas e estudo das séries temporais das ações que compunham o índice Ibovespa em 30 de Maio de 2008, tratadas com o uso de regressões múltiplas
defasadas, com o modelo GJR-GARCH e com a análise de causalidade de Granger. Como resultados o trabalho não permite afirmações conclusivas com relação a significância das relações visto que em algumas ações a relação existe de forma significativa e em outras não, porém mostra que o volume pode ser utilizado como prognóstico do movimento dos preços para algumas ações em particular em operações de traders no uso de análise técnica.
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遺傳規劃應用於國際金融巿場交易策略之研究許江妹, Hoi , Kong Mui Unknown Date (has links)
本文應用遺傳規劃交易程式來檢驗八個國家的股票指數和外匯巿場的表現,採用移動視窗的方法,測試三組獨立的期間,重新檢驗較早期的研究結果,並繼續延申探討,包括交易報酬與交易行為。實證結果顯示,不論在股票還是外匯巿場,若訓練期間的資料選擇不當,遺傳規劃的獲利表現會不理想。資料形態不但會影響遺傳規劃交易程式的獲利性,同時也決定了程式本身的一些觀察特性。我們另外分析了交易程式的複雜度、演化時間、交易頻率和一致性。交易程式的複雜度和演化時間有正向的相關性,但複雜度和報酬、以及演化時間和報酬之間都只有很弱的關係。這些發現可以讓我們更了解遺傳規劃演化交易策略的過程,有助往後更進一步的研究。
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Essays on interconnected marketsWatugala, Sumudu Weerakoon January 2015 (has links)
This thesis consists of three essays that explore the dynamics of interconnected markets and examine the relationships between markets, investor behavior, and fundamental characteristics of the firm and the economy. In the first essay, we investigate the role of trade credit links in generating cross-border return predictability between international firms. Using data from 43 countries from 1993 to 2009, we find that firms with high trade credit in producer countries have stock returns that are strongly predictable based on the returns of their associated customer countries. This behavior is especially prevalent among firms with high levels of foreign sales. To better understand this effect we develop an asset pricing model in which firms in different countries are connected by trade credit links. The model offers further predictions about this phenomenon, including stronger predictability during periods of high credit constraints and low uninformed trading volume. We find supportive empirical evidence for these predictions. The second essay investigates the dynamics of commodity futures volatility. I derive the variance decomposition for the futures basis to show how unexpected excess returns result from new information about expected future interest rates, convenience yields, and risk premia. Using data on major commodity futures markets and global bilateral commodity trade, I analyze the extent to which commodity volatility is related to fundamental uncertainty arising from increased emerging market demand and macroeconomic uncertainty, and control for the potential impact of financial frictions introduced by changing market structure and index trading. I find that a higher concentration in the emerging market importers of a commodity is associated with higher futures volatility. Commodity futures volatility is significantly predictable using variables capturing macroeconomic uncertainty. The third essay investigates the differential explanatory power of consumer (importing countries) and producer (exporting countries) risk in explaining the volatility of commodity spot premia and term premia using trade-weighted indices of GDP volatility. Using data for major commodity futures markets, bilateral commodity trade, exchange rates, and GDP for countries trading these commodities, I test hypotheses on the heterogeneous impact of consumer and producer shocks, potentially driven by differences in hedging preferences and investment planning horizons. Producer risk is significant for both short-dated and long-dated maturities, while consumer risk has greater explanatory power for the volatility of the term spread.
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